Search found 2625 matches

by BigJohn
Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS: Inflation Boondoggle?
Replies: 30
Views: 3948

Re: TIPS: Inflation Boondoggle?

I saw the inflation coming. Everybody told me to buy TIPS. I thought they were a way to deal with inflation. Apparently, I was wrong. I've lost a ton of money on SCHP, during the inflationary onset. They've gone down almost as much as my stock ETFs. I look at various-term graphs of IM bonds vs. SCHP and see very little difference. 1) If they did almost nothing for me during an inflation (which is presumably what they're for), why not simplify my portfolio by eliminating TIPS in favor of ordinary IM bonds? 2) Was my mistake that I bought SCHP (IM TIPS--didn't realize that) instead of VTIP (ST TIPS)? Or is VTIP also no particular improvement over a ST bond ETF such as SCHO? Should I just own an IM bond fund plus a ST bond fund? 3) I'm 72, no...
by BigJohn
Sat Nov 05, 2022 5:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity
Replies: 52
Views: 5854

Re: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity

Problem is that I have 30 accounts (mostly ones I'm an agent for), so I need to do a ctrl-f search to quickly find the account I'm looking for. I used to be able to select transaction history for a single account, which is always what I want to do. I just saw the "Custom transaction history report" https://personal1.vanguard.com/ytd-account-activity-report/filter where you can filter by a single account. Maybe it is what you want. Thanks, but no, this doesn't cut it. It's a clumsy interface to generate a pdf file. Previously I could just click and immediately see the transaction history for a single account. But really, thanks for sharing this. It might be of interest to some. Kevin, the following worked for me just now (not quit...
by BigJohn
Fri Nov 04, 2022 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IBM UHC Medicare Advantage 2023 - pros and cons?
Replies: 85
Views: 16005

Re: IBM UHC Medicare Advantage 2023 - pros and cons?

I was wondering whether anyone used medicare broker in trying to make a decision. I Yes, I did with a similar decision when my megacorp went from a Medigap equivalent plan to an MA plan (details in my post earlier in this thread). They judged the MA plan offered as about average and with company subsidy, not a bad deal. However, they offered this caution based on their experience with other companies. MA plans offered to retirees often become less of a good deal as time goes on, costs go up and the company is looking for ways to save money. Much easier to cut non-guaranteed benefits to retirees than active employees with a contract. This was in line with my prior worries and helped solidify my decision to reject the company plan and go wit...
by BigJohn
Fri Nov 04, 2022 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity
Replies: 52
Views: 5854

Re: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity

Problem is that I have 30 accounts (mostly ones I'm an agent for), so I need to do a ctrl-f search to quickly find the account I'm looking for. I used to be able to select transaction history for a single account, which is always what I want to do. I just saw the "Custom transaction history report" https://personal1.vanguard.com/ytd-account-activity-report/filter where you can filter by a single account. Maybe it is what you want. Thanks, but no, this doesn't cut it. It's a clumsy interface to generate a pdf file. Previously I could just click and immediately see the transaction history for a single account. But really, thanks for sharing this. It might be of interest to some. Kevin, the following worked for me just now (not quit...
by BigJohn
Fri Nov 04, 2022 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity
Replies: 52
Views: 5854

Re: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity

You can't select transaction history for a single account (you used to be able to). Now you can only select it for all accounts, and then must search for the account of interest. Again, with lots of accounts under my login, this is HORRIBLE. Kevin Won’t comment on the rest of the list but this is still possible. If you go to the old style interface with that small font and choose transaction history, you can select one account at a time. Just did this yesterday. I sure hope they never eliminate the ability to get to the old, small functionality. How do you get to it? I was able to for some time after they introduced the junk interface, but lately whatever I did doesn't work. Please help! Menu at the very top of the page, “Balances and Hold...
by BigJohn
Thu Nov 03, 2022 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity
Replies: 52
Views: 5854

Re: Question Regarding Moving Our $ from Vanguard to Fidelity

Kevin M wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:33 pm You can't select transaction history for a single account (you used to be able to). Now you can only select it for all accounts, and then must search for the account of interest. Again, with lots of accounts under my login, this is HORRIBLE.
Kevin
Won’t comment on the rest of the list but this is still possible. If you go to the old style interface with that small font and choose transaction history, you can select one account at a time. Just did this yesterday.

I sure hope they never eliminate the ability to get to the old, small functionality.
by BigJohn
Wed Oct 26, 2022 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IBM UHC Medicare Advantage 2023 - pros and cons?
Replies: 85
Views: 16005

Re: IBM Group UHC Advantage PPO 2023 - pros and cons?

Yes, it is an Advantage plan. The literature I received classifies these two plans as: "IBM-sponsored Group Medicare Advantage Plan". The brochure states that IBM looked at the evolving market heathcare market place and employee feedback and decided on these two plans. They also claim that they provide unique advantages not available through individual plans. What many former IBM participants are concerned about is that they lose their HRA and ability to make their own choices. Not an IBM retiree but will share my worries and decision when my megacorp made a similar move from a Medigap equivalent plan to a Medicare Advantage plan. The company made almost identical claims about why and how it was better. At the time I was just tur...
by BigJohn
Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation (disinflation) Coming? - Goog\MSFT Earnings Miss
Replies: 19
Views: 2346

Re: Deflation Coming? - Goog\MSFT Earnings Miss

Normchad wrote: Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:54 pm Deflation is not the same thing as flatiron easing up or returning to more normal levels.

Nevertheless, I see no reason to think that some over-juiced tech companies missing their earnings would lead to either one.

I don’t know if we have ever had actual deflation in the US during my lifetime. Anybody know when the last actual deflationary period in the US was?
Deflation is very rare, only two years since 1950 while persistent and high inflation is much more common. My crystal ball is cloudy but I’m not particularly worried about deflation being an issue.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ ... ion-rates/
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Transferring a mutual fund holding from Joint Brokerage Account to an Individual Brokerage (Vanguard)
Replies: 18
Views: 1442

Re: Transferring a mutual fund holding from Joint Brokerage Account to an Individual Brokerage (Vanguard)

Kookaburra wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:35 pm It appears that I can change account registration (from individual to joint, or the reverse) with some mouse clicks on Fidelity’s website. No transferring required. So in theory, shouldn’t this be possible with Vanguard too?
Not a Fidelity customer but the ability to go from joint to individual with some mouse clicks would be very worrisome in some circumstances (eg a messy divorce). Not sure I see this as a positive. The verified agreement of both parties should be required which isn’t possible to accomplish on-line.
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another sad day for bonds
Replies: 138
Views: 10714

Re: Another sad day for bonds

Remember that bonds are self-correcting, what you lose in nominal value is eventually made up for by higher yields. The key is not to sell when the price is down before the self-correction comes to your rescue. Stocks have no such assured self-correction so they can go down farther and stay down longer. As such, stocks are much more risky than bonds. So don’t look at the % drawdown of the two sides of your portfolio as equally painful or problematic. If we accept that SWAN is a real concern and mitigating the effects of a volatile portfolio on a susceptible psychology is important (oftentimes we ARE our own worst enemies when we panic and make sudden sweeping moves), then isn't it fair to say that even appropriate-duration self-correcting ...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another sad day for bonds
Replies: 138
Views: 10714

Re: Another sad day for bonds

You could be buying TIPS which now provide a 2% real yield for 2026 and 2027 maturities, and even out to 2045. No inflation risk. No, enough with this non-sense (non-sense to me). I want my future fixed income to *never* decrease in nominal value, regardless if held or not to maturity. Historical data says with a large enough portion of equities they'll help keep up with inflation, even if I keep 20% in cash. That 20% of cash will help me think I'm still well off, unlike my bonds which I couldn't sell now in an emergency (i.e. prolonged job loss that would deplete my 6-month emergency fund) without locking in massive losses. I can understand why you’re concerned about the drop, especially if you didn’t realize it was a possibility. However...
by BigJohn
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?
Replies: 118
Views: 16695

Re: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?

I'm curious why with rising rates in 1970s and early 1980s why total bond market didn't do worse? Was it because rates rose less rapidly I imagine? I don't get it. Part of the challenge is that total bond market funds didn't exists in the 1970s or early 1980s. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX) was the first, and it launched in 1986. So any data we have about how they MIGHT have performed is somewhat speculative. Mathematically, if rates are gong to 10%+ at that time, bond market fund would have been decimated. That is kind of my point. I think we are just getting started with rate rises. Larry Summers did a paper showing inflation is the same today as in 1970s if we use same methodology. I don't know a thing, but when services start...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?
Replies: 118
Views: 16695

Re: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?

Munir wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:20 pm
vineviz wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:15 pm
Munir wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:08 pm
I don't think the concluding paragraph is clear at all. The first sentences states that with rising interest rates the NAV can drop. Then they immediately negate that warning with the second (last) sentence saying because the fund has bonds of different maturities, it negates the risk.
Except that's not what they actually say.

What they ACTUALLY say is that "investors may consider the fund their core bond holding". Nothing about "negating risks".
Isn't it implied that one's core bond holding should not be risky? In other words, are they saying it's OK for it to be risky?
Total stock is often called a core holding but certainly isn’t risk less. I’ve never heard anyone equate those two terms.
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?
Replies: 118
Views: 16695

Re: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?

I am not blaming bond funds for losing money under some circumstances. I do blame those buying them or selling them for not pointing out that you can lose money when you purchase a bond fund in contrast to buying an individual bond. There are other downsides to buying individual bonds including having the issuer go bankrupt. Be informed and don't just fall for a sales pitch or an ad. I think they make this pretty clear. Cut and paste from the very top of VG page on total bond fund. As with other bond funds, one of the risks of the fund is that increases in interest rates may cause the price of the bonds in the portfolio to decrease—pricing the fund’s net asset value (NAV) lower. Because the fund invests in several segments and maturities o...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?
Replies: 118
Views: 16695

Re: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?

I am specifically addressing the issue of bond funds and not individual bonds. There may be ways to add cash or treasuries that can be added to the portfolio to work around this issue of individual bond turnover within a fund which affect a duration. However, I have seen posts on this forum where individuals think if they hold a bond fund for the number of years its duration is, then they are assured of getting back at least the initial principal when the duration point is reached- which is not true. Am I correct? I’m no bond expert but I became convinced years ago that it’s largely a matter of personal preference with no right/wrong or worst/best. Here’s my two cents. Both options should deliver a very similar total return but maybe in di...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?
Replies: 118
Views: 16695

Re: Are total bond market investors a sitting duck?

I am specifically addressing the issue of bond funds and not individual bonds. There may be ways to add cash or treasuries that can be added to the portfolio to work around this issue of individual bond turnover within a fund which affect a duration. However, I have seen posts on this forum where individuals think if they hold a bond fund for the number of years its duration is, then they are assured of getting back at least the initial principal when the duration point is reached- which is not true. Am I correct? I’m no bond expert but I became convinced years ago that it’s largely a matter of personal preference with no right/wrong or worst/best. Here’s my two cents. Both options should deliver a very similar total return but maybe in di...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

I have just read that a reporter is searching for Vanguard clients to ask them questions about their reactions to Vanguard's changing business model involving new fees. It will be interesting for me to learn if she (Erin from the Philadelphia Inquirer) can gauge from various sources roughly how large that subset of customers who you mention above really is. If they are largely very unprofitable, then Vanguard will likely usher them out the door. But if that customer subset is still profitable - but just not as profitable as Vanguard finds some others - then it may not want to lose those profits to competitors. We really won't know the outcome until January 2024 or even January 2025. I think you need to factor into the equation that whateve...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Partner for IT and Limited Term Tax-Exempt (VWIUX & VMLUX)
Replies: 3
Views: 468

Re: TLH Partner for IT and LT Tax-Exempt (VWIUX & VMLUX)

You’re using LT both to refer to Limited Term and Long Term in your post, which is a bit confusing. Anyway, you don’t need to find an exact partner for each fund in isolation. Rather, if you currently have a mix of intermediate (VWIUX) and limited-term (VMLUX), you could construct a mix of (e.g.) long term (VWLUX) and short term (VWSUX) that have similar characteristics. For example, these both portfolios behave very similar: 75% VWIUX / 25% VMLUX 65% VWLUX / 35% VWSUX PV link Another fund you might consider is VTEAX (Tax-Exempt Index) although that one does not declare dividends daily, which will make it a bit more of a hassle if you want to TLH out of it in the future. Edited my post for clarity, thanks for that observation as well as th...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Partner for IT and Limited Term Tax-Exempt (VWIUX & VMLUX)
Replies: 3
Views: 468

TLH Partner for IT and Limited Term Tax-Exempt (VWIUX & VMLUX)

I haven’t done TLH with my bond funds before but there’s a first time for everything. With current loses, considering doing it for the funds in subject line and looking for the right partner. Maybe a bit less important than with stock funds but I like it to be something I’d be comfortable with should I have to stay there for some time. Here’s what I’ve considered and my current plan. Any comments on what I’ve missed or might consider appreciated. Long term TE (VWLUX) - would prefer not to extend duration High Yield TE (VWALX) - unwilling to accept increased risk Fed MM (VMFXX) - lower SEC yield than IT fund, loss of federal tax exemption, high percentage of repo’s would further decrease tax equivalent yield on state taxes. Treasury MM (VUSX...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

rossington wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:13 am
Duckie wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:42 pm
billg2100 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:32 am If I sell my mutual funds and re-buy the identical ETF inside my brokerage account, will I run foul of the wash sale rule? For example converting from VEMAX to VWO. I'm assuming I would need to wait 31 days between sell and buy orders since they are nearly identical.
There are two issues here:
If you choose to convert VEMAX to VWO that is not a sale, that is a conversion...
I've never seen a "conversion" option that would avert a wash sale.
Only "Buy or Sell" or "Exchange Between Vanguard Funds" (in this option you are still selling and buying and it is a taxable event too).
Can you clarify?
Thanks.
Can't be done online. If you want to convert to ETFs you need to call.
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Compare TIPS vs I-BOND
Replies: 45
Views: 3670

Re: Compare TIPS vs I-BOND

2 big differences between the 2. 1. TIPS is a marketable security but i-bond is not. So you will see TIPS price changes every day, which is reflected in return calculation. For example, even if inflation increases, if the market interest rate increases, one can have a negative return. otoh, there's no market price for i-bond. You only see the i-bond account balance, similar to a bank savings account. 2. Effect of inflation rate are different. When inflation rate changes, it affects TIPS face value but not interest rate. otoh, inflation rate affects i-bonds interest rate. And then time lags in the inflation effect on these 2 are different. Number 2 probably partially explains why the dividends of the TIPS (for VTIP particular) fund are lowe...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs in the future and "flight to safety"
Replies: 5
Views: 1007

Re: TIPs in the future and "flight to safety"

The TIPS liquidity issue was pretty short lived. They bounced back within a few months IIRC. Those that were disappointed were looking to rebalance quickly while stocks were way down. In my mind this doesn’t make TIPS less safe but you do need to understand and accept the potential that it could happen again. Only you can decide if this is a big enough deal to sway your decision.
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Compare TIPS vs I-BOND
Replies: 45
Views: 3670

Re: Compare TIPS vs I-BOND

2 big differences between the 2. 1. TIPS is a marketable security but i-bond is not. So you will see TIPS price changes every day, which is reflected in return calculation. For example, even if inflation increases, if the market interest rate increases, one can have a negative return. otoh, there's no market price for i-bond. You only see the i-bond account balance, similar to a bank savings account. 2. Effect of inflation rate are different. When inflation rate changes, it affects TIPS face value but not interest rate. otoh, inflation rate affects i-bonds interest rate. And then time lags in the inflation effect on these 2 are different. Number 2 probably partially explains why the dividends of the TIPS (for VTIP particular) fund are lowe...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice regarding VPAS
Replies: 33
Views: 2481

Re: Advice regarding VPAS

The actual portfolio makes no sense. We have always been given to think VPAS advised a pretty simple 3-4 fund portfolio appropriate to the risk preference of the investor. If this is VPAS today I would pull every penny out of Vanguard and broker somewhere else. But don't go to Fidelity and get signed up for an AUM advisory service either. This is not my impression of VPAS. A friend went for a recommendation a couple of years ago at my suggestion and came away with a 9-10 fund portfolio. No active funds that I recall but as an example it included short, intermediate and long term munis funds (which not surprisingly averaged out to intermediate term) as well as both S&P 500 and total stock. Needless to say I was disappointed. I've also s...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

I think the notice (6 weeks?) was short considering how many people are having problems with the transition and how difficult is is to get a human to help. I think something like 3 months notice and good customer service would have a very different reaction (although some people would still not want to move). I also think their instructions have been poor. People have been transitioning for years. Vanguard has to know what problems are common and yet everyone who encounters a problem is having to reinvent the wheel. I think Vanguard also confused things by announcing two new fees at the same time in the same message. A lot of people got confused by that, especially people who didn't even know there were two platforms to begin with. I don't...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

I think the notice (6 weeks?) was short considering how many people are having problems with the transition and how difficult is is to get a human to help. I think something like 3 months notice and good customer service would have a very different reaction (although some people would still not want to move). I also think their instructions have been poor. People have been transitioning for years. Vanguard has to know what problems are common and yet everyone who encounters a problem is having to reinvent the wheel. I think Vanguard also confused things by announcing two new fees at the same time in the same message. A lot of people got confused by that, especially people who didn't even know there were two platforms to begin with. I don't...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice regarding VPAS
Replies: 33
Views: 2481

Re: Advice regarding VPAS

starboi wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:08 am VWILX has an ER of 0.32%. Would love to know what the Vanguard fans think about PAS putting so much money into this.
Well, I’m a VG defender when it comes to their actions on the old MF platform but I won’t defend PAS. Based on their recommendations to a friend and what I’ve seen here, they are headed down a path of unnecessary added complexity IMO. Not as bad as 20+ funds some get put into elsewhere but certainly not close to a simple 3/4 fund portfolio with rock bottom cost.

My advice to the OP would be to save the money, ditch PAS and manage your own more simple portfolio.
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWALX vs. VWLUX AMT Question
Replies: 7
Views: 1071

Re: VWALX vs. VWLUX AMT Question

Thanks. I could always move back to VWLUX if AMT goes back to pre 2017 levels. Sure but if interest rates are down you might have a capital gain to pay taxes on if you do. Lots of moving parts, no way to know for sure whether it will work out to be a net positive or negative. I’ll just give you my opinion… a $25K loss on $750K is smaller than I’d normally tax lost harvest on stock funds where I’d be happy to stay in either TLH pair forever. With the potential AMT issues here, I’d personally either not do this or at least pick another TLH fund to use. Why not go Int Term with no AMT exposure. If interest rates go up or hold even, you can swap back after the waiting period. If you have a capital gain that quickly, you can comfortably stay th...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWALX vs. VWLUX AMT Question
Replies: 7
Views: 1071

Re: VWALX vs. VWLUX AMT Question

The AMT is complicated so difficult to say with any certainty. If you do your own taxes, you could plug in $5K of AMT income for 2021 and see what happens. Won’t be perfect but should be close.

One other caution. No matter the results for 2022, don’t forget that the major changes made to the AMT limits are set to expire after 2025. So even if OK now, it might be a different answer in 4 years.
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: bond portfolio
Replies: 61
Views: 5572

Re: bond portfolio

I’m about your age and went 50/50 TIPS/nominals about 4 years ago. For a retiree, I think owning a substantial amount of TIPS makes good sense providing both inflation protection and the safe of treasuries. For nominals I use VG IT bond index with is about 50/50 treasuries/high quality corporates. In your shoes, I would not stretch for yield by investing in high yield (ie junk) bond funds.
by BigJohn
Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: Is Vanguard turning into a "gotcha" firm? What is it's future?

What's going on here? I'm looking at hundreds of dollars of fees, nearly forced usage of a horrible website, as well as sudden notification of all these changes that they need to do it now or else. "Sudden notification"? Vanguard has been promoting converting to the brokerage platform for a few years. In my case, converting to the brokerage platform was relatively painless, except it somewhat complicated my tax reporting the year I did the mutual fund account-to-brokerage account conversion. It's a simple change and an easy way to sidestep the account fees. They gave only 6 weeks notice of the new fees. For those of us going online we were being prodded for years about the fund platform BUT for people that were getting paper stat...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 04, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Currently Recommending "Alternatives"
Replies: 146
Views: 22410

Re: Larry Swedroe Currently Recommending "Alternatives"

In my observation... The discussions here mostly are not between people who say they believe one thing vs. people who say they believe the opposite, but rather between one group that says they know something with a great degree of certainty, and you would be a fool not to see it vs. another group that says the system is way too complex, you can't possibly know it with that kind of certainty. I actually fall into the “way too complex, cant know with any kind of certainty” crowd. But for me that has resulted in a heavily tilted portfolio with alternatives as opposed to TSM/TBM. To me, not knowing a lot is reason to diversify as broadly as I can across unique and independent sources of return. The only thing I know with certainty is that my p...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Currently Recommending "Alternatives"
Replies: 146
Views: 22410

Re: Larry Swedroe Currently Recommending "Alternatives"

In my observation... The discussions here mostly are not between people who say they believe one thing vs. people who say they believe the opposite, but rather between one group that says they know something with a great degree of certainty, and you would be a fool not to see it vs. another group that says the system is way too complex, you can't possibly know it with that kind of certainty. I actually fall into the “way too complex, cant know with any kind of certainty” crowd. But for me that has resulted in a heavily tilted portfolio with alternatives as opposed to TSM/TBM. To me, not knowing a lot is reason to diversify as broadly as I can across unique and independent sources of return. The only thing I know with certainty is that my p...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS fund?
Replies: 99
Views: 13061

Re: TIPS vs TIPS fund?

I've seen worries/questions about TIPS and deflation in several discussion but when I look back at CPI based inflation history I just don't see this as a big concern. The numbers since 1960 and even the recession required to bring inflation of the 70'/80's under control never resulted in an annual inflation rate much below 2%. Through all the recessions during that 60+ year period, there were only a handful of years at or below 1% inflation and only 2 years at 0 or below (ie true deflation and I had to count 0.1% as 0%). There really aren’t any examples of what I would call a deflationary crash. While anything is possible and my crystal ball is cloudy, high unexpected inflation seems far more common than actual deflation. As a result, how T...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving to Vanguard brokerage platform - How do I create custom transaction reports?
Replies: 26
Views: 2317

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

dratkinson wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:48 am
rkhusky wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 8:26 pm
dratkinson wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 8:10 pm Question. On the custom report of transactions, do you get a running balance of shares transacted and resulting account total shares owned?
No running balance.
Thanks. Bummer.

Time to ask Vanguard add the running total of shares owned to the customized report. Should be simple to do and would give us what we need to recreate the convenience of the MF platform's annual report.

Note to self. Ask for this customized report feature to be added to VBS when I call this month.
I understand the desire for a one stop report with all the transactions for the year. But I’m curious… what do you do with a running share balance as opposed to just beginning and ending balances?
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS fund?
Replies: 99
Views: 13061

Re: TIPS vs TIPS fund?

I agree with comments above that fund vs individual bonds is six of one and half a dozen of the other in terms of performance. Everyone is different and I see funds/ETFs as less work and therefore less heartburn than individual bonds but, I'm not bothered by the expected ups/downs in price with interest rate changes. Another difference is that funds/ETF pay out the inflation adjustment while you don't get that on individual bonds until maturity. However, this accrued but unpaid adjustment is taxable every year. Again, ultimately the same performance but some people have a lot of heartburn about the tax on this "phantom income" if held in a taxable account. As said above, they are the same but different. The key is understanding t...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS fund?
Replies: 99
Views: 13061

Re: TIPS vs TIPS fund?

chrisdds98 wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 1:52 pm do TIPS funds not always provide a monthly distribution? looks like this fund doesn't have anything for september.. or maybe i'm checking too early

https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/schp
Don't know about this one but VG's TIPS funds usually pay quarterly when the inflation adjustment is made. However, before inflation heated up, there were long stretches with no dividend. So, at least from my experience, a steady stream of income isn't a characteristic of TIPS funds. That's just the nature of the beast as they work differently than nominals.
by BigJohn
Thu Sep 01, 2022 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIP Cost basis- Seeking Tax advice
Replies: 25
Views: 1741

Re: TIP Cost basis- Seeking Tax advice

A lot of people are very bothered by the phantom income problem if you hold individual bonds in a taxable account. If you’re in that camp, one way around it is to purchase a TIPS fund. These are required to payout the inflation adjustment each year so they act like a nominal bonds funds in that respect.
by BigJohn
Thu Sep 01, 2022 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

Some valid points here, but I'm just judging based on the majority of explanations I see. MANY do not seem to have a good reason or in some cases seem wholly unaware of the prods spanning the last decade. It's continually surprising. Like they just want to see how long they can ride it or want to see how long they can jam up the works because they don't like being told what to do. Does that make them contrarians, or. . . ? Plenty of people dislike being told they must change. Nonetheless, while I admit not reading every single post, it seemed to me that the critical posts generally did point to specific disadvantages. Switching financial institutions due to a negative changes is not a big deal in itself. For instance, most of my cash had b...
by BigJohn
Thu Sep 01, 2022 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

I checked my account balance this morning (9/1) and did not see any distributions from my muni fund for August in the brokerage account. I was puzzled because as far as I remembered, the muni fund always paid out the dividends at the end of the month. I then realized there is money showing up in the brokerage Settlement fund under "Total credits and debits," and "Funds available to trade." If my math is right, it is my muni fund distribution for the reminder of August, but it is not in my muni fund's activity. When I tried to exchange the settlement fund to another fund, the transaction page (the same interface as the old mutual fund account era) showed 0 balance for the settlement fund. I couldn't proceed even if there...
by BigJohn
Wed Aug 31, 2022 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS fund?
Replies: 99
Views: 13061

Re: TIPS vs TIPS fund?

I agree with comments above that fund vs individual bonds is six of one and half a dozen of the other in terms of performance. Everyone is different and I see funds/ETFs as less work and therefore less heartburn than individual bonds but, I'm not bothered by the expected ups/downs in price with interest rate changes. Another difference is that funds/ETF pay out the inflation adjustment while you don't get that on individual bonds until maturity. However, this accrued but unpaid adjustment is taxable every year. Again, ultimately the same performance but some people have a lot of heartburn about the tax on this "phantom income" if held in a taxable account. As said above, they are the same but different. The key is understanding t...
by BigJohn
Wed Aug 31, 2022 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS fund?
Replies: 99
Views: 13061

Re: TIPS vs TIPS fund?

I agree with comments above that fund vs individual bonds is six of one and half a dozen of the other in terms of performance. Everyone is different and I see funds/ETFs as less work and therefore less heartburn than individual bonds but, I'm not bothered by the expected ups/downs in price with interest rate changes. Another difference is that funds/ETF pay out the inflation adjustment while you don't get that on individual bonds until maturity. However, this accrued but unpaid adjustment is taxable every year. Again, ultimately the same performance but some people have a lot of heartburn about the tax on this "phantom income" if held in a taxable account. As said above, they are the same but different. The key is understanding th...
by BigJohn
Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Possibly Abandoning Vanguard
Replies: 87
Views: 8505

Re: Possibly Abandoning Vanguard

If 20 bucks moves the needle in any conceivable way, you’ve got more to worry about than brokerage fees. Yes. I was very surprised at the impact I computed - and am far less surprised now that I realize, thanks to jebmke, that I'd made an arithmetic error, and my computation was off by a factor of ten. :oops: DinoNerd, No one likes to be nickel and dimed. If the only reason you're thinking of leaving, why not just choose e-delivery and then print out your statements whenever you'd like. But if you'd like to go, all of your holdings can be converted to the ETF-equivalent and there will be no tax ramifications. It's not just the fee. It's not even mostly the fee. It's a whole bunch of little aggravations like having to refuse to convert to e...
by BigJohn
Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any consequences to consider setting aside 25X early?
Replies: 71
Views: 8164

Re: Are there any consequences to consider setting aside 25X early?

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:57 am
hand wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:39 am You're missing the impact of time value of money - 25x today invested sensibly is very likely to be significantly more in 10+ years.
You will have oversaved.
I am assuming that likely will be the case, but I am trying to see if I might have some blindspot that would lead to it not being sufficient beyond a meteor striking Earth or global nuclear war.
All invested in long term nominal bonds and we have a decade of very high inflation like the 70s/80s is quite the apocalypse you’re describing but it might not leave you with enough.
by BigJohn
Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 5993
Views: 699413

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

itispossible wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:41 pm The Lincoln Lawyer
Started this last weekend and thought it was just OK. Was surprised at how structurally similar it is to "Bosch", another Michael Connelly series. While Bosch was instantly likable, I'm struggling to like the main character in this one. Comes across as a bit arrogant and impressed with himself. Will finish the season and hope that changes, we'll see.
by BigJohn
Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

While I have not had an account or holdings at Vanguard for several years, I receive periodic emails because of a family member's trust. An email arrived this morning with the subject: The fee policy is changing for brokerage accounts Yes, that is not an error. Brokerage accounts . A link in the email directs to this page: https://investor.vanguard.com/client-benefits/brokerage-fees-commissions I did not look to see what the changes are because they don't affect me... I know you're not a VG fan but honestly, why just stir the pot when you don't know the significance. My email came with a very helpful "based on your situation you won't pay anything" msg so I didn't even have to look. However, I did browse through a bit and didn't ...
by BigJohn
Mon Aug 22, 2022 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accountant fees? Was this fair?
Replies: 68
Views: 5620

Re: Accountant fees? Was this fair?

I've already pretty much resigned to paying it. I just don't like the bait and switch on the estimate. It feels wrong. I'll try to answer all of the questions. The accountant isn't a CPA, but an MBA/JD? Just looked it up on her website. I was referred to her firm by a colleague. I asked for a cost breakdown repeatedly, and her first response was that there was some time for "discussion and preparation of Schedule C, self-employment issues." Then she responded 2 hours of partner time and 7 hours of staff time. She said partner hourly rates are $400/hr and staffing is $175/hr. I was not aware of any of this prior. I'm still not sure how she got to $1300, but it's probably easily explainable. My wife has not opened an individual 401...
by BigJohn
Sun Aug 21, 2022 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Retirement (2.2% SWR, Annuities)
Replies: 644
Views: 45151

Re: Wade Pfau's Retirement (2.2% SWR, Annuities)

There are signs that inflation is moderating, one reason I didn't just rush into TIPS earlier this year. I also wondered if there was opportunity in nominals. Based on recent movements in the markets, you’re not alone in thinking inflation is moderating but I remain skeptical. It was a one month down tick in a very noisy measurement. Sure, some fundamental components, like supply chain issues, seem improved but will those hold? Lots of potential hiccups on the horizon. Other issues, like salaries and wages, may just be getting cranked up as most people have fallen behind and want to “catch-up”. While I certainly hope you’re right, I’m going to wait for a several month trend down before thinking inflation is headed in the right direction. C...
by BigJohn
Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Retirement (2.2% SWR, Annuities)
Replies: 644
Views: 45151

Re: Wade Pfau's Retirement (2.2% SWR, Annuities)

There are signs that inflation is moderating, one reason I didn't just rush into TIPS earlier this year. I also wondered if there was opportunity in nominals. Based on recent movements in the markets, you’re not alone in thinking inflation is moderating but I remain skeptical. It was a one month down tick in a very noisy measurement. Sure, some fundamental components, like supply chain issues, seem improved but will those hold? Lots of potential hiccups on the horizon. Other issues, like salaries and wages, may just be getting cranked up as most people have fallen behind and want to “catch-up”. While I certainly hope you’re right, I’m going to wait for a several month trend down before thinking inflation is headed in the right direction. E...
by BigJohn
Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 217686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual accounts

People want what they want and no amount of expert opinion or logic is going to convince them they shouldn’t have it. I think VG’s path forward is very clear so those people can either pay the fees and accept a future with growing loss of functionality, upgrade at VG or move elsewhere. As I used to tell my kids… “life’s not fair, those are the only choices, pick one”. I have yet to see any logic or expert opinion saying that financial workers who aren't allowed to have outside brokerage accounts are better off losing the option to hold Vanguard funds at Vanguard. Note that I said "shouldn't have it" not "shouldn't want it". The desire is understandable. Several software experts have explained the cost, inefficiency and ...