Search found 1257 matches

by Theoretical
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1591

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

I agree to a point, but you really need several hundred thousand in the bond portion in taxable to go individual OR you do something like 50-50 muni fund and several $10-15K blocks to amp up the overall credit quality, but you really have to be only buying at new issue and having no intention to sel...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10884

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

jhfenton wrote:
Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:56 pm
It's an argument. At least one person I respect makes it.

I find it completely unconvincing.
Ditto.

Honda, Toyota, Sony, and etc... all had enormous international exposure while being Japanese companies. It has not worked out too well for Japan only investors by the same logic.
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1591

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

This is where market cap bond weighting becomes nasty, because there are a lot of states with crippling debt obligations like this. The ratings agencies are also pulling wool over people's eyes by rating many of these bonds AAA. However, because active bond funds, almost without fail reach for yield...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3757

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

High quality intermediate muni bonds (BMBIX)
Brokered CDs
TIPS
Trend Following Managed Futures
Paid off home
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO ex-Russia?
Replies: 19
Views: 1479

Re: VWO ex-Russia?

The killing is figurative, but the shorting costs will be very significant relative to the investment, especially on a thinly traded etf and that's not counting the retail borrowing rate.

It means the ER of the VWO ex RSX will likely be significantly higher.
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO ex-Russia?
Replies: 19
Views: 1479

Re: VWO ex-Russia?

Why would you want to short the Russian market? It's one of the most deep value markets out there, even by its low standards, and even taking the corruption into account. If you want to do this, then what you need to do is identify the dollar amount that will be your EM allocation and divide it by ....
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?
Replies: 68
Views: 7891

Re: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?

A CD is a bond with FDIC protection and in the case of a direct bank cd, a put option. It is completely legitimate to use them as part of a bond allocation.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seven-Year Investor Old Beats Harvard’s Endowment Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 2909

Re: Seven-Year Investor Old Beats Harvard’s Endowment Fund

This is fundamentally a stacked deck, because dad picked a set of funds, enforced diversification, and weeded out crazy gimmicks. Imagine if he'd instead printed off 15 random funds with ten year histories from Morningstar and let the girls decide their asset allocations. So sorry, you have invested...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could black swan be a 10%-one-time tax on wealth ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1990

Re: Could black swan be a 10%-one-time tax on wealth ?

There have been proposals, similar to what Greece did, of collecting the tax on 401k balances. As this is a very large source of potential tax revenue for a potentially cash starved government, I'd say it's not a black swan, though the timing and speed would likely be. A wealth tax on post tax wealt...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vulture Investing - Liens
Replies: 3
Views: 961

Re: Vulture Investing - Liens

I think I'd sooner be caught naked in Times Square than play this game of roulette as an investment . As a vocation and career , it could be extremely rewarding. As a passive alternative investment, I'd be very afraid. Let's put it this way, just about at the top of my list of worst gifts to give a ...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 24, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors
Replies: 6
Views: 862

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors

Here's what I mean: MTUM has basically paralleled a large growth index while having a definite negative value load. The AQR, Bridgeway, and now Alpha Architect momentum funds have some nasty negative alphas, especially on the smaller funds, but are at least neutral on value. Negative alphas of -2.5 ...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors
Replies: 6
Views: 862

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors

Disclaimer: I haven't read the article yet. I'm with Robert T on this one. It's good to get cross-sectional momentum neutral, but I think it's almost a unicorn or rainbow chasing to capture long-only (and with horrifying downside long-short).
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13925

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

High quality Short term bonds (and tbills) are basically uncorrellated to anything, so they are excellent diversifiers to equities regardless of economic conditions. Long treasuries historically have been moderately positively correlated to equity returns; however for the last 30-odd years, they've ...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 19074

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Probably worse in a usual recession, since these are risk factors being tilted towards. A massive bubble a la the tech bubble means its value tilt will do well but a liquidity crisis will not help these at all. An inflationary recession would be an open question. I do think there is a premium associ...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller
Replies: 78
Views: 8152

Re: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller

I have had not one, not two, but three NW Mutual agents from the same office pull this kind of trick on me of saying they were referred by one of my Linkedin contacts, which when I reached out to them later was completely false. They used all of these tactics and even more, where they were so obnoxi...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for Robert T/ people familiar with factor analysis.
Replies: 10
Views: 1429

Re: Question for Robert T/ people familiar with factor analysis.

In my opinion, you left off the very best one of them all, IJS/VIOV - .25/.20 respectively. It's a really well constructed take on small value, especially because the underlying value-blend/growth index has a persistent value tilt, even in the growth index . So even though it has more than half the ...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 3639

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

One set of funds I'd be really curious about are the fundamental index funds, especially with the recent PowerShares rebalance.

PRF, PRFZ, FNDX, FNDB, and FNDA
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 3639

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

This is so incredibly impressive. What I'm seeing here is that the Quant Equity Group is producing some really impressive portfolios for the factor crowd, and that are sharper and smaller-cap tilts than their peers with iShares and especially the John Hancock ETFs. They have embraced the tracking er...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 19074

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

That really sounds like a multi metric DFA, especially since the Value Factor etf looks fairly neutral on momentum and with the daily re-evaluation.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Drunk investor [Liability for uncovered account?]
Replies: 16
Views: 2972

Re: Drunk investor [Liability for uncovered account?]

The more interesting legal question would be in the situation of involuntary intoxication (allergic reaction or being forced/accidentally taking a mind altering drug (say a delivery of pot brownies with lsd from a regular bakery) or a gun being placed to your or a family member's head.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 3639

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

I'm loving this data. One question I had was how the value fund shakes out for momentum and momentum fund for value.

Also, price to sales (cash flow too) is really looking like the uber-value play these days. 4 dollars of sales per dollar of price is absolutely crazy.
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 19074

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I'd add SFENX, SFILX, SFNNX (EM Large Value, International Small Blend-Value, and International Large Value) to the mix.
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures
Replies: 5
Views: 653

Re: Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures

https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/03/07/are-long-short-equity-strategies-worth-the-fees/ This Alpha Architect article suggests a favorable comparison to Long-Short funds being a 60/40 VTI/EDV mix. It'd get killed in inflation whereas the long-short fund gets killed in deflationary/panic times. Also, ...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 19074

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Very Awesome work jhfenton. Thanks for putting in the time. Let's keep these threads going until the volume improves. I imagine we'll see exponential growth in these funds, especially the multifactor fund/ETF barring a market crash. As much as I respect Larry Swedroe, he'll be saying, "for Christ's...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 19074

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

For what it's worth, IJS has 40-50% turnover and has never distributed a capital gain. Vanguard is just as good as Blackrock in the tax management game. It might in its first year if there's a huge run up in the market, but is pretty unlikely to do so. If you read how they explain active, this is a ...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 19074

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

How'd you calculate the combined style box, @Angst?
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 19074

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

In terms of the value fund, it is more valuey and has similar size characteristics to a 50-50 DFA Large Cap Value and DFA Small Cap Value.

I am extremely impressed.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How Correlations Are Influenced
Replies: 30
Views: 2319

Re: Larry Swedroe: How Correlations Are Influenced

What I think the fairly consistent message that's coming out here over the last few months, admittedly biased in a "hire us to help with this" is watch out for stagflationary risk. I think several things come into play here: 1. Widespread inadequate retirement savings leading to a need for high retu...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 18513

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

People often ask what purpose cash has in a portfolio. We're probably dinosaurs, but we've always kept a 5% allocation to cash in our retirement portfolios, even through the low interest rates of the past decade. Other advantages to a cash allocation not mentioned by Rick: • Instant Liquidity (no w...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's U.S. Total Stock Market Index fund (VTSAX) and Fidelity's TSM (FSTVX) considered "substantially identical"?
Replies: 24
Views: 2942

Re: Vanguard's U.S. Total Stock Market Index fund (VTSAX) and Fidelity's TSM (FSTVX) considered "substantially identical

They're essentially the same. No the IRS hasn't made a ruling on it, but I think it's asking for trouble. Just use a large cap fund or Schwab's broad market fund that doesn't have microcaps.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Money Market Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2151

Re: Treasury Money Market Funds

You could also buy a couple of ETFs.

SPDRs BIL at .12% is a 1-3 month t-bill fund and ishares has SHV at .15 for 1-12 and there's few newer ones as well.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Fails In Fixed Income
Replies: 25
Views: 2958

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Fails In Fixed Income

The Vanguard Tax-Exempt "active" funds are hard to really describe as active, as they have miniscule turnover, sometimes lower even than the Muni Index, and they have twice as many holdings.

At most, by their behavior, they do a bit of yield curve positioning, but are still closet index funds.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goodbye Emergency Fund (sorta)
Replies: 34
Views: 4257

Re: Goodbye Emergency Fund (sorta)

I think your overall strategy is fine but I think you should increase the hobby fund size by whatever amount would be the largest single or multipart hobby purchase you would do at one time - say for the quarter. So if it's a potential for a $3,000 expense, then you should have $10-11,000 in your co...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 2300

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Since you posted, there's also this fund that's coming: http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/wisdomtree-plans-active-etf?nopaging=1 It's a 90/60 Large Cap/Treasury Futures fund, which could be very interesting, especially for taxable accounts. One thing to be cautious of RE: the PIMCO Plus fu...
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 7013

Re: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds

Big talk for a guy whose company is sitting on $100 billion in cash. :D Cash is a different asset class altogether from bonds. It may be a debt security but it behaves a lot differently than even an intermediate term bond. Especially if you add the credit exposure of money market funds to it, there...
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rome-Florence-Venice-Prague summer vacation
Replies: 54
Views: 3434

Re: Rome-Florence-Venice-Prague summer vacation

Use this service to get between the cities in Italy and then Prague, and you'll be very pleasantly surprised: www.mydaytrip.com. It's a Czech-owned private driver service tailored towards American and Australian tourists. Our two drivers, from Venice to Salzburg and Salzburg to Vienna absolutely roc...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 12874

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Also, considering the scope of both Enron+ scandals and the grotesquely fraudulent housing bubble that nearly collapsed the global economy, I find it very curious how quickly we like to point fingers at other, even more corrupt markets. Also, we too have petty or not so petty bribery in this country...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 118
Views: 10935

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

. Interesting article (extract below): “Due to the low correlation of the four strategies, we estimate a portfolio of the four would have volatility of only about 5%, similar to that of an intermediate bond portfolio, while providing an expected, forward-looking return of about 7.5%.” Thus, relativ...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 12874

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh
Replies: 16
Views: 2295

Re: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh

Tyler 9000 has done some research on your stagflationary example, with a surprising finding: tbills and money market funds. This is further borne out by reviewing the data from the Simba spreadsheet. Except in the 1940s immediately after WWII, where interest rate caps were imposed, tbills have done ...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 2300

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Ok, so here's a couple of options you MAY want to consider. I think you're thinking the wrong way. What you actually want to do is to leverage bonds not stocks. The stocks' volatility can be a real killer, but if you leverage bonds, well, that's got some potential. In other words, keep your 90% stoc...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing muni bond funds
Replies: 52
Views: 5678

Re: Choosing muni bond funds

BMBIX has done an admirable job of building a fund that's heavily pre-refunded and that has moved away in its holdings from exposure to high-risk states. It's been doing what almost no active bond fund does, which is to sacrifice yield for a safer return. It still has more bonds than I'd like in Ill...
by Theoretical
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1385

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

Here's one that goes out to 1991 via the Portfolio Visualizer: http://bit.ly/2CiebYk

Adding TIPS via the PIMCO Real Return Fund (Class I) - 3 years older than the Vanguard Fund - gets you to Feb. 1997: http://bit.ly/2BT6NqR
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1385

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

Treasuries are significantly better than corporates at diversifying the risk of a stock-heavy portfolio. Doesn’t this argue for a pure treasury bond fund over and above a core bond fund at least as far as portfolio “ballast” goes? Yes, if that's what you're looking for. Though really, if you want p...
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 7239

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

Currency hedged, the rates are comparablein both directions. Also, the end of quantitative easing is a known unknown in that it having an effect in some way is almost guaranteed but how that effect spirals out remains to be seen.
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 13443

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Small cap value tends to have higher PE's than their large cousins, but their price to sales, cash flow and book values are somewhat to a lot lower (sales especially). Also what's high in one industry is reasonable in another and there are noticeable sector differences between large and small
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 191565

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

People pay way too much IMO for asset classes that they think are not correlated but actually are. The gold standard in non correlation is short-term bonds. The rest are based upon past relationships holding & folks paying up (through higher fees) to obtain access. What I find amazing is folks who ...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 191565

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I have questions, which might be naive, IDK. Since QSPIX is closed to new investors, what happens if you sell? Does the buyer have to be a current owner of QSPIX, and doesn't that limit the number of potential buyers pretty drastically? Is that the point of closing the fund, to limit buyers and sel...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh
Replies: 31
Views: 3508

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh

1) To those saying that 2008-present is not a fair test because it was a rising market, I thought the whole point of the "smile" was that the strategy performs well during both falling and rising markets. Obviously it's more exciting if it performs well during falling markets, but if that is just a...