Search found 1073 matches

by Theoretical
Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Merging bypass & survivor's trust
Replies: 7
Views: 986

Re: Merging bypass & survivor's trust

Ditto to the techniques described here. You want an experienced trusts and estates attorney who regularly works with taxable estates. In this regard, consider looking for an attorney who has been practicing for at least 10 years, or if younger, whose experience has been at an elite boutique. Why? Be...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Add TIPS and High Yield Corporate Bonds To Your Portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 1907

Re: Add TIPS and High Yield Corporate Bonds To Your Portfolio?

If I wasn't also heavily into Small Value, I'd strongly consider the Fallen Angels junk fund ANGL, perhaps as a barbell with treasuries.

The comparison of default rates between BB, B, and the Ca are completely stunning. 1%, 7%, and 14% as averages.

ANGl is 75% BB
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX
Replies: 8
Views: 923

Re: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX

Well there's a downside to it. EM Value is a rough ride, even by EM standards.
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX
Replies: 8
Views: 923

Re: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX

Actually, the DFA funds have far less turnover than the Fidelity index - 4-6% vs 25%.

The value fund is the most diversified in terms of number of companies and is the only one to get you Small Cap EM exposure (all Value).
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard believes in active managment
Replies: 19
Views: 1900

Re: Vanguard believes in active managment

Their "active" bond funds have a lot more bonds than the indexes and have less turnover. There's also the benefit of being able to negotiate institutional prices for new issues. Regarding their stock funds, many of them are quant strategies with moderate turnover at most that merely aren't tied to a...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to get away for large growth tilt taxable account. Advice?
Replies: 3
Views: 495

Re: Looking to get away for large growth tilt taxable account. Advice?

Torch the actives. I had a lot more capital gains than that and spread it over 3 years. If you're prioritizing them, then do a ranking as follows: Category 1 - expense ratio Category 2 - turnover rate The latter is what kills you with capital gains distributions. So your analysis isn't unduly skewed...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Market Cap to approximate Fundamental or equity weighting
Replies: 21
Views: 1382

Re: Using Market Cap to approximate Fundamental or equity weighting

Robert T did some analysis that showed a 66% Value/33% Growth with the Russell 1000 indexes gets you most of the way there from a 3 factor perspective. I also think Bill Bernstein and the Schulteis approaches of splitting blend and value do much the same. It also works with the S&P 600 growth and Va...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 2065

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

The rule is often stated as follows: “No interest is good unless it must vest, if at all, not later than twenty-one years after the death of some life in being at the creation of the interest.” In this context, the children are the absolute duration measures until January 22, 2097. At that point, if...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 8329

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

So, even though there may be a probability of continued low inflation, there is a real risk of higher inflation. That would seem to suggest that it would be wise to use a higher allocation to TIPS than one might have 10 years ago to protect oneself from those risks. Interesting point. TIPS in defer...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 8329

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Oh I completely agree that there's a quality of living difference. On the macro scale, I think the heavy use of derivatives makes "what's out there" a murky concept. When you had trillions of dollars in leverage collapse followed by trillions in worldwide QE, I think there's a real risk that someone...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 8329

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Inflation is more subtle. Gasoline has 10% ethanol (less energy), a half gallon of ice cream is now 1.75 quarts, orange juice containers are 59 oz not 64, etc...

Also, housing prices have been soaring for quite some time in many areas.
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting Study in Factor Investing
Replies: 4
Views: 655

Re: Interesting Study in Factor Investing

The NYT article is only 6 years old. That's nothing in any investing context, though you correctly identify the psychological problem with tracking error.
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 5877

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Does this mean that it is better to tilt toward value? I have been reading the Boglehead's suggested readings and have seen conflicting opinions on tilting toward value. "Lord make me chaste. But not yet" - St. Augustine You can tilt 20% of your portfolio towards the value premium. On the odds that...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 2072

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

I think it's really important to use multiple value measures besides PE to say that a market is over or undervalued.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser
Replies: 54
Views: 6668

Re: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser

The emotional/behavior side though is more complex no matter what the allocation.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 2072

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

It's not a percentage, or rather it's an inversion of a percentage of Earnings Yield. Basically, if you're only going to get 2% earnings yield (PE of 50), then unless bonds are deeply negative yields (like -2% or world), you're taking a lot of risk for no reward over a much less risky security than ...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 2072

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

It matters because historically, over 20 meant a recession was likely and over 25 meant a crash was looming. I think one can argue that 25 and 30 are more common analogous numbers now with modern accounting rules. At the least, it also suggests that one should expect lower returns going forward for ...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser
Replies: 54
Views: 6668

Re: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser

(Lawyer too) I think the (legitimate) reasons why some are afraid of the rule is because they're dependent on a series of variables that are totally out of their control as to whether they did a good job. It's a lot different than most medicine or legal work, but usually the situations are clearer, ...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2850

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

Price to sales looks absolutely amazing for the S&P 600 Value
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2850

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

Well, M*'s is also kind of bogus, because it's based on forward earnings.

I think Fidelity's "key statistics" for ETFs is one of the best in the business for showing where the fund stands relative to its peers and uses trailing earnings.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 8386

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

For me, they have great products but hold no interest as investments because a lot of the technology disrupters are too early or stumble into oblivion.

I'm ok with missing "the next big thing."
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names
Replies: 30
Views: 3731

Re: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names

The diversification is there no matter whether there is a concrete current benefit. It is a good point that while some diversifications are beneficial, others can be detrimental. How do you, jalbert, determine which ones those are in advance, assuming beneficial means higher risk-adjusted returns o...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX
Replies: 47
Views: 4798

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX

If you're going to do it, the fund to pick is either this one or Van Eck's Fallen Angels fund ANGL, because it's an arbitrage play and the bonds are higher quality on the whole.

Credit spreads are painfully tight though.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings
Replies: 31
Views: 3035

Re: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings

http://texaslawhelp.org/files/685E99A9-A3EB-6584-CA74-137E0474AE2C/attachments/D82134BE-C249-CFB5-6869-1BD25BA6E78F/407091LHT%2032_1%20Comm%20Law%20Marriage.pdf My family law professor was a recently retired 25 year family court appellate judge and it takes only one occasion to trigger it. Normally...
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings
Replies: 31
Views: 3035

Re: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings

If you don't get married but do have the ceremony, do not travel to Texas together as a couple until the 4.5 years is past. Common law marriage is very easy to trigger in Texas, even for a brief stopover.
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Your Investment Strategy Should Fit on an Index Card"
Replies: 17
Views: 3628

Re: "Why Your Investment Strategy Should Fit on an Index Card"

Buy low, sell high is also the principle of rebalancing, which many Bogleheads do.
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 600 vs. CRSP Small Cap Index
Replies: 5
Views: 738

Re: S&P 600 vs. CRSP Small Cap Index

I love the S&P 600 but I concur with the use of the CRSP, especially since it's a blend index. As for the other allocation decisions, it'd actually help to see what you want to accomplish and what you have right now (percentages rather than dollars are fine).
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is mid-cap "the sweet spot"?
Replies: 26
Views: 4926

Re: Why is mid-cap "the sweet spot"?

To me, it's more of a factor of Midcaps not being megacaps that supplies the extra return and risk. The downside is that in an apocalyptic scenario like 2008 or the 1930s, the vast majority of the Microsofts and GEs are going to stick around due to their sheer blue-chippiness. Keep in mind that it's...
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Vanguard Fund Has Beaten Its Category Average 16 Years In A Row?
Replies: 14
Views: 2548

Re: "What Vanguard Fund Has Beaten Its Category Average 16 Years In A Row?

I'm confused; according to Morningstar's page for VTSAX it trailed the category in 2007 by 0.59. tech_arch: Look again (use "Expanded View"): http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VTSAX®ion=usa&culture=en_US Best wishes. Taylor Why is the category for Total Market L...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 3354

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

And as to which fund, I looked at it from a 100 mile view, rather than digging into factors etc... I liked that the S&P 600 is smaller than CRSP, has a quality component, and is not as susceptible to front-running as the Russell 2000. Yeah, it is definitely a solid index choice. Also nice in taxabl...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulators, Reality, and Motiviation to Stay the Course
Replies: 13
Views: 1498

Re: Simulators, Reality, and Motiviation to Stay the Course

I actually think the sims are at their best not in the averages but in the extremes/black swans (good or bad). The ones in the middle are retrospective and, I think an inaccurate picture of safety. I think many many people, especially on this site, have portfolios that have blown way, way past even ...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the difference between a Trust and a Will?
Replies: 24
Views: 2222

Re: What's the difference between a Trust and a Will?

For a Will...the lawyer wins (huge fees.) For a Trust...the lawyer loses (lower fees.) This is very offbase. In fact, it's often the opposite, and most states don't have provisions that automatically add assets to the living trust that got left out. If that happens, you still get probate. In additi...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 3354

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

Nisiprius: Thank you for that. It sounds to me like I am overthinking things. I feel like I want to have a 30% holding in a SCV and will likely place the rest into a TSM account for peace of mind. I still have to determine where to allocate the other 20% of my portfolio. Looking like maybe a mix of...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!
Replies: 28
Views: 3394

Re: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!

Vanguard's quant group has some good stuff:

viewtopic.php?t=206890

I also like the RAFI funds as DFAish without the advisor.
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ex Employer Large Stock Position and Tax Implications
Replies: 10
Views: 1041

Re: Ex Employer Large Stock Position and Tax Implications

6% of what? 6% of a $100,000 portfolio is $6,000. 6% of a $1,000,000 portfolio is 60,000 6% of a $5,000,000 portfolio is $300,000 If you're honestly worried about something close to the first category, sell it now and eat the gains. #2, sell it over a few years and consider using a put option to at ...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative fund ideas for Large Blend
Replies: 3
Views: 487

Re: Alternative fund ideas for Large Blend

What is the portfolio overall? Is it your only US Large Cap holding (i.e. heavy small/value tilter)?
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 8269

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

It's to cover the costs of trading some illiquid entities abroad. Because of the Vanguard structure, the purchase/sale fees go right into the fund revenues, which come back to you the shareholder as part of the distributions or by covering expenses.

It's not a traditional load.
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 74
Views: 17777

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

The fund has to pay >= inflation. Why? What's the point of losing money? Savings accounts pay 1%. Inflation is 2%. Your buying power loses over the long term. Except that ultra-low duration cash as part of a portfolio doesn't work that way as a piece of the puzzle. In the stagflation, both stocks a...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Even indexing can be too much of a good thing
Replies: 25
Views: 5018

Re: Bogle: Even indexing can be too much of a good thing

One development could mitigate much of the advantage that index funds enjoy and slow the rush to own them, but you’re probably not going to like it. When the market suffers a prolonged decline, active managers can gain an edge over indexers by moving large portions of assets into cash or into defen...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 2065

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

Why have it as the earlier date of the 2 options listed? Why not have it as the later date of the 2 options listed? At least that would give some more certainty. It's a legal requirement for it to be written that way. If they didn't and enforcing the trust ever became an issue, the entire thing cou...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Even indexing can be too much of a good thing
Replies: 25
Views: 5018

Re: Bogle: Even indexing can be too much of a good thing

My highest turnover stock fund is IJS at 35-45%. Everything else is a fundamental index with some legacy S&P 500. Turnover rates are between 10-25% for everything else and they're indexes. Clearly I have an active strategy, but should my holdings be classified as passive or active for the purposes o...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Explaining The Low Vol Anomaly
Replies: 16
Views: 2244

Re: Larry Swedroe: Explaining The Low Vol Anomaly

Heck, you know what the great, cheap asset that performed like a champ in the 1970s was? The humble t-bill. It blew away both large stocks and bonds for a decade. Anything can under(out)perform for a stretch, and 1 year returns can be very idiosyncratic and are often heavily sensitive to reactions t...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using limit orders to limit losses
Replies: 21
Views: 2002

Re: Using limit orders to limit losses

Also, a stop limit can really screw you over in a flash crash. For example, in August 2015, I think IJS dropped by like 20% at the opening bell and then quickly climbed back to down 5%. A stop loss order would have destroyed nearly 1/4 of your investment like that.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 2065

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

Also, even if all 11 die in a Black Swan sort of way, the trust still has 20 years to unwind.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 2065

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

At least with Generation-skipping tax treatment, changing the term is often a taxable event. What's more likely is 1 of three things (1) that the trust gets "decanted" into a new trust with a near-infinite RAP, (2) lobbyists in the state where SPY is domiciled get the RAP repealed in the legislature...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 2065

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

The difference is that it's an involuntary liquidation based on external law.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 2065

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

I don't think I can think of an ETF less likely to liquidate than SPY. There is absolutely nothing to worry about here - just lawyers being paid by the word to enumerate every possible risk for the SEC. http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/15-most-important-etfs?nopaging=1 SPY is also the ...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting throughout the year
Replies: 23
Views: 1728

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting throughout the year

"Your $1482 loss seems to be plenty in my eyes, but do you have a good long-term partner you wouldn't mind holding forever, in its place?" Haven't found a good partner fund for VBR. This is in my V taxable account. I could always go Total Market for thirty days. Though I would risk incurring short-...
by Theoretical
Wed May 31, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Place to put Cash - short term
Replies: 30
Views: 4537

Re: Place to put Cash - short term

You get some term and credit exposure, but iShares SUB (Short Term Municipal) is 25% pre-refunded.
by Theoretical
Wed May 31, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Explaining The Low Vol Anomaly
Replies: 16
Views: 2244

Re: Larry Swedroe: Explaining The Low Vol Anomaly

It's been so "overgrazed" that it's (USMV) is beating the S&P 500 year-to-date by a significant margin. Meanwhile, small/value (not "overgrazed"?) is down 4 - 5% so far in 2017. Short-term semi-annual performance does not matter. It's noise. He's talking about 5-10 year expected returns based on cu...