Search found 1071 matches

by Theoretical
Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great commodities debate
Replies: 39
Views: 7090

Re: The great commodities debate

The great irony is that they're actually now somewhat appealing, because they've been so bad. Indeed, as a post up top suggested, they've done exactly what they should in a time of deflation. I think their value is lower to most Bogleheads because we tend to invest in short to intermediate term bond...
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with bond fund
Replies: 8
Views: 523

Re: Help with bond fund

Can you post the full list of the 401k funds? The fact that these funds have ERs of .46 and .7 suggests your plan is already quite a bit better than many 401ks that have ERs well north of 1%. For the bonds, I'd probably go with the PTTRX just because both bond funds take a fair bit of credit risk, b...
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Thoughts
Replies: 2
Views: 346

Re: Portfolio Thoughts

A REIT tilt is fine, but you really should use either of the following ETFs instead of the mutual fund for a static slice: VNQ - .12 iShares REET - .14 - if you also want to get International REITs (not just real estate companies) However, more than a REIT tilt, I think the lack of Emerging Markets ...
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 14, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How often should I contribute to my taxable account?
Replies: 23
Views: 3164

Re: How often should I contribute to my taxable account?

It depends on what you're investing into the taxable account. If you're just going to keep 1 fund in it (make sure it's different than your IRAs to avoid wash-sale problems), such as Total Stock Market or Total International, then I'd say monthly is fine with reinvested dividends. If you're going to...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGRLX missed dividend [Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate]
Replies: 1
Views: 447

Re: VGRLX missed dividend [Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate]

It looks like the March dividend is historically very low, and sometimes not paid (and even the June dividend is fairly low, relative to the December one).

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... ture=en-US
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk
Replies: 45
Views: 5724

Re: Larry Swedroe on Understanding Different Types of Risk

Likewise. What I've most appreciated is the importance of good, safe bonds in a portfolio, even more than the small value side of the equities and international diversification equation.
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront: Why we avoid Blackrock ETFs
Replies: 24
Views: 4215

Re: Wealthfront: Why we avoid Blackrock ETFs

Ameritrade has VT commission-free. Alternately, if this is a tax-advantaged account, you could buy equal amounts of ITOT and IXUS throughout the year, then wait 30 days from your last trade and sell your entire ITOT and IXUS holdings commission-free and use the proceeds plus whatever you would have ...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will - what is complicated?
Replies: 72
Views: 5112

Re: Will - what is complicated?

It's not absolute (except many times for designating who is prohibited from serving), but the parents' wishes are given an awful lot of weight. It is important to designate who is barred from being guardian or trustee.
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront: Why we avoid Blackrock ETFs
Replies: 24
Views: 4215

Re: Wealthfront: Why we avoid Blackrock ETFs

What they said about Blackrock, could just as well be said about Fidelity, Schwab, etc. But I ultimately do not trust these companies. Question: Who has your interests as an investor more at heart? One of the above for-profit companies or a mutually-owned life insurance company like Northwestern Mu...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will - what is complicated?
Replies: 72
Views: 5112

Re: Will - what is complicated?

Very few estate planning attorneys charge hourly for anything other than specialized, highly unusual or specific language that's client specific, and then it's a flat fee plus a rider if it's not simply a higher quoted flat fee. The other time is when significant counseling as to asset dispositions ...
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legality of renters posting reviews of a condominium complex?
Replies: 82
Views: 4577

Re: Legality of renters posting reviews of a condominium complex?

Tenants have far more rights than a mere customer at a restaurant. In fact, many of the owners' rights pass to the tenant for the duration of the lease. Ignoring these reviews can be a great way to get massive liability when something goes really wrong, and sanctions against posting reviews would li...
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will - what is complicated?
Replies: 72
Views: 5112

Re: Will - what is complicated?

The documents are the easy part, at least as far as the will goes. It's not complicated to say "If I die, A gets everything and A should manage the estate. If A's dead it goes to my kids and Bob should be the executor." Powers of attorney can get sticky. Minor children inheriting anything is complic...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Windfall for someone on Medicaid
Replies: 12
Views: 1977

Re: Windfall for someone on Medicaid

Stephen Dale is a top expert nationwide in these kinds of Medicaid issues. A resource blog: http://achievingindependence.com/materials/ Whatever she does with it, she must NOT give it away. It's actually a good thing she didn't disclaim it, because Medicaid may treat it as a transfer of assets and p...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 11, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best place to setup a will
Replies: 42
Views: 4268

Re: Best place to setup a will

It's not the will so much that gets dicey. It's the trust arrangements for minor kids where its really easy to screw it up if you're not careful and don't include ALL of the necessary provisions for your state to keep it from being a messy. I literally had to tell clients visiting my old firm's offi...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 11, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question
Replies: 13
Views: 1348

Re: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question

Here's the problem. You've paid $5700 - about a year's full IRA deposit so far. You have 9 full years left to go before you break even on the policy and 7 left to stop paying premiums out of pocket rather than from the policy itself. Right now you'll lose ~$3000 (premium paid less cash surrender val...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question
Replies: 13
Views: 1348

Re: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question

Would it be in my best interest to at least ride this out until I can break even? I'd hate to pull out of this and end up eating a couple grand due to getting cold feet. If you were one year out from it being entirely self-sustained, I'd say maybe. You've not even put a full year's IRA contribution...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question
Replies: 13
Views: 1348

Re: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question

I have good and bad news for you. Good news first: there are worse policies than yours. As it goes, it's not that bad. At least it goes neutral before 10 years. Many policies take 20+ years to do that. Bad news: it's a terrible policy for your situation, and it's not a good investment, especially wh...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value factor shrinking in ETFs?
Replies: 5
Views: 1123

Re: Value factor shrinking in ETFs?

The factor exposure varies over time for any fund. That's why its a good idea to use data over a long stretch rather than incremental blocks. 2010-2015 was terrible for value, just about everywhere. US midcaps are high valuations right now, many times even higher than the small caps. Also, price to ...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??
Replies: 23
Views: 2264

Re: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??

This is one option: EITEX - Eaton Vance Parametric Tax-Managed Emerging Markets at .95% ER but 2% turnover and a slight small value tilt.

It clusters emerging and frontier markets countries into size clusters and equal weights each cluster. 25% of the portfolio is FM. The downside is a $50K minimum.
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: risk in ratings
Replies: 13
Views: 899

Re: risk in ratings

http://www.thestatesproject.org/state-debt/

https://www.mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings

Nebraska, Tennessee, the Dakotas, Oklahoma, the Atlantic Southern states, and Idaho all look really sound, and without significant pensions j risk.
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will There Ever Be A Time When There Are No Emerging Markets?
Replies: 14
Views: 2098

Re: Will There Ever Be A Time When There Are No Emerging Markets?

Nope, because unfortunately, there will also be countries that regress. Argentina went from No 7 (in the same conversations as Britain, US, Germany, France, and the Netherlands in terms of wealth and Developedness to Emerging to frontier . Meanwhile, Chile is on the cusp of becoming the first Develo...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: risk in ratings
Replies: 13
Views: 899

Re: risk in ratings

I think with Munis, a big positive factor is that state budget and pension unfunded liabilities are publicly available to compare against each other. Nebraska, for example, has so little debt or unfunded liability per capita load it's laughable. Contrast that with Puerto Rico or Connecticut.
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

No, because the lending revenue appears to be used to offset the expenses, rather than being distributed to you as fundholder. Blackrock is a bit controversial on this board, but for tax-efficiency, even in weird asset classes like EM small caps, they're insanely good, at least on par with Vanguard,...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Handling the Details of a Large Inheritance
Replies: 54
Views: 5209

Re: Handling the Details of a Large Inheritance

Well with individual stocks at that large of holdings, they need to be watched like hawks. In addition, that's what put options are for. It's uncompensated risk that a diversified mutual fund/ETF does not have. As for the capital losses, they can offset harvesting gains to move towards a more index ...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Handling the Details of a Large Inheritance
Replies: 54
Views: 5209

Re: Handling the Details of a Large Inheritance

I'm confused by what you mean. He has close to 20% of a million plus portfolio in just a few companies. That's horrifying single stock risk and this is not a small portfolio. Depending on the goals, reinvest the proceeds of the sales into an international fund like Total International or a small cap...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

Fund has expenses of X Fund has dividends and interest of Y Fund also has lending revenues of Z You the Investor get Y+Z-X in dividends. The lending revenue essentially covers some of the expenses, and in some cases more than the expenses themselves. I take the net expenses and subtract the lending ...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: risk in ratings
Replies: 13
Views: 899

Re: risk in ratings

I'm actually leaning the other direction, taking a look at new issue individual bonds and funds from slices of states with with extremely low debt and unfunded liability obligation like Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, and Tennessee.
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Handling the Details of a Large Inheritance
Replies: 54
Views: 5209

Re: Handling the Details of a Large Inheritance

A couple of things: 1. Sell all of your losses that are more than a few bucks immediately. That gets you -$28000 in LT capital losses to play with. 2. You have tremendous single stock risk: - Chevron - Coca-Cola - Dow - Dupont - Monsanto !!!!!! - Pepsi - !!!!! - Yum and Yum China You may need to loo...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "We're changing how we report costs. You still benefit."
Replies: 14
Views: 2685

Re: "We're changing how we report costs. You still benefit."

The highest cost Vanguard fund is, I believe, Vanguard Emerging Markets select at 90 basis points. I have never heard of this fund, and it has $400M in assets compared to $541B in Total Stock Market and $300B in S&P 500 funds, which are 16 basis points at most if you hold Investor shares. Why s...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

Is the Large cap stuff in taxable or tax advantaged?
by Theoretical
Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?
Replies: 50
Views: 3452

Re: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?

My point regarding the performance of bonds is that if they underperform stocks, then an investor concerned with maximizing total returns shouldn't have any bonds. Trying to maximize risk-adjusted returns is a totally different matter. I've got to disagree with you here. The statement is only true ...
by Theoretical
Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?
Replies: 50
Views: 3452

Re: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?

My point regarding the performance of bonds is that if they underperform stocks, then an investor concerned with maximizing total returns shouldn't have any bonds. Trying to maximize risk-adjusted returns is a totally different matter. I've got to disagree with you here. The statement is only true ...
by Theoretical
Sun Apr 09, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Larry Portfolio variation would you choose?
Replies: 30
Views: 3699

Re: Which Larry Portfolio variation would you choose?

Hey I am not a technical analysis guy.Just pointing out there is some value,no pun intended,in buying stocks in companies that supply day to day necessities through good times and bad,and of course they are defensive stocks which is why I said a very conservative investor,or in other words,someone ...
by Theoretical
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?
Replies: 50
Views: 3452

Re: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?

rob65 wrote:I worry that the tech and housing bubbles have led to the false assumption that all crashes are v-shaped.


This x1000
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson Managed futures & dealing with uncorrelated assets
Replies: 8
Views: 1112

Re: Ben Carlson Managed futures & dealing with uncorrelated assets

These funds are hard to benchmark. There are no real index funds to compare to in alternatives so it’s hard to make apples-to-apples comparisons on performance numbers. Investors have a hard time understanding if their funds are working or not. This is one of the biggest problems I have with these ...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of having TIPS funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 4467

Re: Value of having TIPS funds?

Karen Wallace of Morningstar wrote in “Handy Weapons in an Inflation Fighter's Arsenal” (please feel free to read her article) : This is important to note because although TIPS mutual funds and ETFs hold bonds whose principal values adjust along with inflation, the funds themselves don't have a mat...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best place to setup a will
Replies: 42
Views: 4268

Re: Best place to setup a will

Make sure that if you DIY, you review a "how to plan your estate" or "how to write your own will" that is specific to your state. Different states have very different laws and procedures. If you do some research, you may find attorneys in your state that will do something basic f...
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 07, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lack of agency bond choice?
Replies: 6
Views: 472

Re: lack of agency bond choice?

I wish there is a bond fund that will buy a mix of agency senior debt+agency mezz debt, that would be the perfect combination of low credit risk + high yield The senior debt is, but the mezz/first loss piece on agency bond is paying 14-16%+ with no credit loss in last 7 years . You're absolutely nu...
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?
Replies: 50
Views: 3452

Re: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?

A 95% US Stocks/5% ZROZ allocation gets you the exact same term risk found in a 60/40 US Stocks/intermediate treasury portfolio. The difference in expected returns (very close) becomes more a function of the sequence of returns than simply being bound to the fortunes of equities alone.
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4568

Re: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns

Maybe there's something to the commodification reducing returns...but that ignores the fact that in addition to high-capacity price agnostic stuff like RAFI, there's tons and tons of sector funds, thematic ETFs, and other focused active funds just like there always have been. I think valuations do m...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Larry Portfolio variation would you choose?
Replies: 30
Views: 3699

Re: Which Larry Portfolio variation would you choose?

I'd go with version number 1 since it raises annual returns without being even 1/2 a point more volatile in std deviation. That said, it depends on what your overall bond percentage would have been if you were just doing a normal total stock market vs total bond percentage. I'm in the process of sw...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 06, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

Yep. See pages 79-80 - Look under the Statement of Operations and the Statement of Assets and Liabilities. https://www.ishares.com/us/library/stream-document?stream=reg&product=I-IEMG&shareClass=US+Class&documentId=926235~925821~925823~925653~925638&iframeUrlOverride=%2Fus%2Fliteratu...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

Larry, in a rising rate environment with greater inflation, which fund is going to be less tax efficient - a short 0-5 TIPS etf like VTIP or a short term treasury ETF like SHY? The former has the inflation adjustment yield to the principal but a rock bottom coupon rate, while the latter has the high...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

Drummerboy, I've got several possible ideas for you beyond the SMA, one slightly offbeat, one a bit exotic, one a bit out of left field, and the last bordering on bathing in nuclear waste in terms of risk if you don't know EXACTLY what you're doing. I speak from experience with the vast majority in...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

I've been adjusting my portfolio to be more of a LP (SCV, EMV) with a BIG bonds portion. But, most of my assets are in Taxable. My IRA balances are relatively small. I can put my TIPS allocation in my IRA, but that still leaves a significant portion in Taxable for bonds. My plan is to use Limited-T...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

Drummerboy, I've got several possible ideas for you beyond the SMA, one slightly offbeat, one a bit exotic, one a bit out of left field, and the last bordering on bathing in nuclear waste in terms of risk if you don't know EXACTLY what you're doing. I speak from experience with the vast majority in ...
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

The other thing is that it's not the stock funds that bear the bulk of consideration - it's the bonds!

At the end of the day, it's the bonds that keep this engine (and any portfolio!) humming and are the secret sauce, not the holy grail of perfect factor coverage.
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

This violates the rule of "easier," but you can use 2 funds to get synergy to move closer to DFA loadings if there's not a lot of overlap with the funds. RAFI small funds are particularly well suited to matching up with more focused value funds in their respective classes. Their design hel...
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 6244

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

It's the methodology that does it. The Rafi small funds end up tilting to Mid-Growth but squeeze out a hefty amount of value premium. PDN squeezes a loading of .3 positive value (AQR) in a period where international small-mid funds are heavily tilted to growth or even extreme growth. A lot of this c...
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 1959

Re: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?

I think the catch is that in an extended bear market, you'll risk getting hammered by a margin call during a periodic or deepening dip.