Search found 1393 matches

by Theoretical
Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller
Replies: 78
Views: 8835

Re: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller

I have had not one, not two, but three NW Mutual agents from the same office pull this kind of trick on me of saying they were referred by one of my Linkedin contacts, which when I reached out to them later was completely false. They used all of these tactics and even more, where they were so obnoxi...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for Robert T/ people familiar with factor analysis.
Replies: 10
Views: 1571

Re: Question for Robert T/ people familiar with factor analysis.

In my opinion, you left off the very best one of them all, IJS/VIOV - .25/.20 respectively. It's a really well constructed take on small value, especially because the underlying value-blend/growth index has a persistent value tilt, even in the growth index . So even though it has more than half the ...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4110

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

One set of funds I'd be really curious about are the fundamental index funds, especially with the recent PowerShares rebalance.

PRF, PRFZ, FNDX, FNDB, and FNDA
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4110

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

This is so incredibly impressive. What I'm seeing here is that the Quant Equity Group is producing some really impressive portfolios for the factor crowd, and that are sharper and smaller-cap tilts than their peers with iShares and especially the John Hancock ETFs. They have embraced the tracking er...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24333

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

That really sounds like a multi metric DFA, especially since the Value Factor etf looks fairly neutral on momentum and with the daily re-evaluation.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Drunk investor [Liability for uncovered account?]
Replies: 16
Views: 3186

Re: Drunk investor [Liability for uncovered account?]

The more interesting legal question would be in the situation of involuntary intoxication (allergic reaction or being forced/accidentally taking a mind altering drug (say a delivery of pot brownies with lsd from a regular bakery) or a gun being placed to your or a family member's head.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4110

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

I'm loving this data. One question I had was how the value fund shakes out for momentum and momentum fund for value.

Also, price to sales (cash flow too) is really looking like the uber-value play these days. 4 dollars of sales per dollar of price is absolutely crazy.
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24333

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I'd add SFENX, SFILX, SFNNX (EM Large Value, International Small Blend-Value, and International Large Value) to the mix.
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures
Replies: 5
Views: 703

Re: Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures

https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/03/07/are-long-short-equity-strategies-worth-the-fees/ This Alpha Architect article suggests a favorable comparison to Long-Short funds being a 60/40 VTI/EDV mix. It'd get killed in inflation whereas the long-short fund gets killed in deflationary/panic times. Also, ...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24333

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Very Awesome work jhfenton. Thanks for putting in the time. Let's keep these threads going until the volume improves. I imagine we'll see exponential growth in these funds, especially the multifactor fund/ETF barring a market crash. As much as I respect Larry Swedroe, he'll be saying, "for Christ's...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24333

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

For what it's worth, IJS has 40-50% turnover and has never distributed a capital gain. Vanguard is just as good as Blackrock in the tax management game. It might in its first year if there's a huge run up in the market, but is pretty unlikely to do so. If you read how they explain active, this is a ...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24333

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

How'd you calculate the combined style box, @Angst?
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24333

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

In terms of the value fund, it is more valuey and has similar size characteristics to a 50-50 DFA Large Cap Value and DFA Small Cap Value.

I am extremely impressed.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How Correlations Are Influenced
Replies: 30
Views: 2408

Re: Larry Swedroe: How Correlations Are Influenced

What I think the fairly consistent message that's coming out here over the last few months, admittedly biased in a "hire us to help with this" is watch out for stagflationary risk. I think several things come into play here: 1. Widespread inadequate retirement savings leading to a need for high retu...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19686

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

People often ask what purpose cash has in a portfolio. We're probably dinosaurs, but we've always kept a 5% allocation to cash in our retirement portfolios, even through the low interest rates of the past decade. Other advantages to a cash allocation not mentioned by Rick: • Instant Liquidity (no w...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's U.S. Total Stock Market Index fund (VTSAX) and Fidelity's TSM (FSTVX) considered "substantially identical"?
Replies: 24
Views: 3082

Re: Vanguard's U.S. Total Stock Market Index fund (VTSAX) and Fidelity's TSM (FSTVX) considered "substantially identical

They're essentially the same. No the IRS hasn't made a ruling on it, but I think it's asking for trouble. Just use a large cap fund or Schwab's broad market fund that doesn't have microcaps.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Money Market Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2373

Re: Treasury Money Market Funds

You could also buy a couple of ETFs.

SPDRs BIL at .12% is a 1-3 month t-bill fund and ishares has SHV at .15 for 1-12 and there's few newer ones as well.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Fails In Fixed Income
Replies: 25
Views: 3197

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Fails In Fixed Income

The Vanguard Tax-Exempt "active" funds are hard to really describe as active, as they have miniscule turnover, sometimes lower even than the Muni Index, and they have twice as many holdings.

At most, by their behavior, they do a bit of yield curve positioning, but are still closet index funds.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goodbye Emergency Fund (sorta)
Replies: 34
Views: 4602

Re: Goodbye Emergency Fund (sorta)

I think your overall strategy is fine but I think you should increase the hobby fund size by whatever amount would be the largest single or multipart hobby purchase you would do at one time - say for the quarter. So if it's a potential for a $3,000 expense, then you should have $10-11,000 in your co...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 2468

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Since you posted, there's also this fund that's coming: http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/wisdomtree-plans-active-etf?nopaging=1 It's a 90/60 Large Cap/Treasury Futures fund, which could be very interesting, especially for taxable accounts. One thing to be cautious of RE: the PIMCO Plus fu...
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 7212

Re: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds

Big talk for a guy whose company is sitting on $100 billion in cash. :D Cash is a different asset class altogether from bonds. It may be a debt security but it behaves a lot differently than even an intermediate term bond. Especially if you add the credit exposure of money market funds to it, there...
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rome-Florence-Venice-Prague summer vacation
Replies: 54
Views: 3619

Re: Rome-Florence-Venice-Prague summer vacation

Use this service to get between the cities in Italy and then Prague, and you'll be very pleasantly surprised: www.mydaytrip.com. It's a Czech-owned private driver service tailored towards American and Australian tourists. Our two drivers, from Venice to Salzburg and Salzburg to Vienna absolutely roc...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 13254

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Also, considering the scope of both Enron+ scandals and the grotesquely fraudulent housing bubble that nearly collapsed the global economy, I find it very curious how quickly we like to point fingers at other, even more corrupt markets. Also, we too have petty or not so petty bribery in this country...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 118
Views: 11358

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

. Interesting article (extract below): “Due to the low correlation of the four strategies, we estimate a portfolio of the four would have volatility of only about 5%, similar to that of an intermediate bond portfolio, while providing an expected, forward-looking return of about 7.5%.” Thus, relativ...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 13254

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh
Replies: 16
Views: 2360

Re: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh

Tyler 9000 has done some research on your stagflationary example, with a surprising finding: tbills and money market funds. This is further borne out by reviewing the data from the Simba spreadsheet. Except in the 1940s immediately after WWII, where interest rate caps were imposed, tbills have done ...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 2468

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Ok, so here's a couple of options you MAY want to consider. I think you're thinking the wrong way. What you actually want to do is to leverage bonds not stocks. The stocks' volatility can be a real killer, but if you leverage bonds, well, that's got some potential. In other words, keep your 90% stoc...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing muni bond funds
Replies: 53
Views: 6672

Re: Choosing muni bond funds

BMBIX has done an admirable job of building a fund that's heavily pre-refunded and that has moved away in its holdings from exposure to high-risk states. It's been doing what almost no active bond fund does, which is to sacrifice yield for a safer return. It still has more bonds than I'd like in Ill...
by Theoretical
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1470

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

Here's one that goes out to 1991 via the Portfolio Visualizer: http://bit.ly/2CiebYk

Adding TIPS via the PIMCO Real Return Fund (Class I) - 3 years older than the Vanguard Fund - gets you to Feb. 1997: http://bit.ly/2BT6NqR
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1470

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

Treasuries are significantly better than corporates at diversifying the risk of a stock-heavy portfolio. Doesn’t this argue for a pure treasury bond fund over and above a core bond fund at least as far as portfolio “ballast” goes? Yes, if that's what you're looking for. Though really, if you want p...
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 7540

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

Currency hedged, the rates are comparablein both directions. Also, the end of quantitative easing is a known unknown in that it having an effect in some way is almost guaranteed but how that effect spirals out remains to be seen.
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 14524

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Small cap value tends to have higher PE's than their large cousins, but their price to sales, cash flow and book values are somewhat to a lot lower (sales especially). Also what's high in one industry is reasonable in another and there are noticeable sector differences between large and small
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206177

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

People pay way too much IMO for asset classes that they think are not correlated but actually are. The gold standard in non correlation is short-term bonds. The rest are based upon past relationships holding & folks paying up (through higher fees) to obtain access. What I find amazing is folks who ...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206177

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I have questions, which might be naive, IDK. Since QSPIX is closed to new investors, what happens if you sell? Does the buyer have to be a current owner of QSPIX, and doesn't that limit the number of potential buyers pretty drastically? Is that the point of closing the fund, to limit buyers and sel...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh
Replies: 31
Views: 3741

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh

1) To those saying that 2008-present is not a fair test because it was a rising market, I thought the whole point of the "smile" was that the strategy performs well during both falling and rising markets. Obviously it's more exciting if it performs well during falling markets, but if that is just a...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206177

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Balanced fund won't do anything positive in an inflationary environment. The test for alts is really going to boil down to weather they beat cash in an inflationary cycle.
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh
Replies: 31
Views: 3741

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh

Has Larry looked at the returns on the AQRIX and AQRMX funds? They're awful over the past 10 years. I can't figure out how he can recommend them or what resemblance they have to the graph in his main article. Do you mean the Managed Futures funds or the Risk parity ones? AQR uses elements of risk p...
by Theoretical
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 111
Views: 12240

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Two decent QSPIX alternatives that don't require an advisor. Janus Henderson Diversified Alternatives - JDAIX - 1.13% at Fidelity. The T class is 1.34 and is commission free widely. Targeting a 6% volatility, so QSLIX is the better comparison. Columbia Alternative Beta Class A (CLAAX) is also 1.34% ...
by Theoretical
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 111
Views: 12240

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Something I've been thinking about alts is why and when they came into existence. It was in the wake of the 1970s where one of the best performing asset classes was t-bills and both bonds and stocks got stuffed, especially long bonds. Think about what gets postulated as an Alt: - REITs - Long-only C...
by Theoretical
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 213
Views: 39599

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

I have 10% of my total portfolio in VXUS. The rest is all US based and includes 10% REITs. No judgments here, but I'm curious as to why so many people on here have such large or increasing holdings of international equities? For example, since inception, vanguard total stock market has done quite a...
by Theoretical
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 213
Views: 39599

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 am
Why is VXUS down if Europe / Asia seemed “up” today? I don’t get it ...
Currency effects.
by Theoretical
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 213
Views: 39599

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

About 50-35-15 US/DM/EM
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 17337

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Hawaiishrimp wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:09 pm
I wish it drops more so I can get some more shares. Seriously.
Dangerous words...be very careful what you wish for.
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Replies: 30
Views: 3492

Re: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?

Japan is fine, but avoid the megacaps for the aforementioned zombiecorp problems. All of the strength for a US investor is in their small to midcaps, especially value.
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond
Replies: 14
Views: 1442

Re: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond

Are you saying that the stated duration of 6.6 years by Vanguard will be increased when the bonds are no longer callable? That is really something I didn't understand. Municipal bonds typically have a period of non-callability from 7-10 years after issuance. Then the issuer has the option but not o...
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6844
Views: 1495316

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013. Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates... In other words,...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 5008

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

danaht wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:57 pm
If Amazon tries to buy Target - then I think the government might try to stop that. Otherwise - it probably won't be stopped for a while.
I threw up a little when I read that prediction.
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 5008

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

Revenue and growth with limited profits - what good is it to an invester? It won't always be that way. Once they eliminate their competition, they can raise prices and profits will shoot up. That's likely when government intervention will occur. I've been hearing about raising prices and big profit...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond
Replies: 14
Views: 1442

Re: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond

It depends on how the bonds are secured. If it's a general obligation bond, then you have to look at both the state and locality's financial health. If it's a revenue bond, you need to look at what it's doing. Historically, transportation, school district, water/sewer, and electricity bonds have bee...