Search found 1388 matches

by Theoretical
Fri May 18, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15201

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

@Dead Man Walking I agree with you that some of these are hard to implement apart from an advisor, though some of the alts do have mutual fund availability or alternatives to the AQR universe. For Alt Lending, there's a few other Interval funds that may be available without an advisor. Insurance Lin...
by Theoretical
Mon May 14, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 42
Views: 6362

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

I agree with Nedsaid (like usual). "I don't think value is going away anytime soon". Here are a couple of fun little article's for your reading enjoyment. http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/12/16/the-fun-thing-about-blue-chip-dividend-stocks/ http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013...
by Theoretical
Sun May 13, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)
Replies: 27
Views: 2472

Re: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)

For long-term inflation as a pure play, there's also this: http://www.proshares.com/funds/rinf.html. It's long 30 year TIPS and short 30 year treasury futures
by Theoretical
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1768

Re: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund

However, just for laughs, I also ran portfolio 3, yellow, which is the same strategy but using Total Bond instead of the market neutral category average. Over this time period etc. it would have been considerably better than using market neutral. This is actually where the PIMCO Stocks Plus and RAE...
by Theoretical
Thu May 10, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 202
Views: 44319

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

I think DLS (and DGS) work because it's not a standard high dividend fund. Instead it is weighted by the total dividends paid, subject to the market cap limit (bottom 10%). So it's a fundamental index that basically works as a shareholder yield weighted fund, especially since buybacks aren't common ...
by Theoretical
Thu May 10, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1768

Re: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund

Nisiprius, could you run the numbers like this to model the fund as it's structured:

100% VFINX
90% Market Neutral
-90% Cashx
by Theoretical
Sat May 05, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 7114

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

I listened to a podcast she did, and the main perspective I got was that pro poker is all about making sound decisions with limited information and thinking in terms of probability rather than certainty when it comes to decisions. It was also about the behavior problems that Coke when people take to...
by Theoretical
Fri May 04, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24291

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

If you listen to their audio interviews and discussions, they view the small size factor as a mix of value and relative liquidity. So it's a factor rather than market cap approach to the historical size premium.
by Theoretical
Fri May 04, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws
Replies: 5
Views: 1161

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws

PXH was also horribly implemented until something like 2013-14, with massive tracking error caused by its sampling methodology.
by Theoretical
Fri May 04, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income
Replies: 30
Views: 2965

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income

I think for retail investors, cost in the implementation will exceed any benefits, especially because there are retail only products where the consumer has an advantage over institutions: high yield savings accounts and FDIC insurance for CDs and the accounts, along with the benefits available to op...
by Theoretical
Thu May 03, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 213
Views: 20926

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Bogleheads - I am curious how this asset class would respond during extend and deep periods of market trauma such as a financial crisis. The role of bonds in an investment portfolio is to provide safety and income. Investors need bonds the most during market stress. The question is would internatio...
by Theoretical
Wed May 02, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 213
Views: 20926

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

To me, it is all about the numbers. The yields suck on int'l bonds. The history of returns on int'l bonds (developed) suck. That huge sucking sound you hear, it is all the yield you are giving up by buying int'l bonds. No thanks. I'll stick with the US Total Bond market. Am I biased? Perhaps. But t...
by Theoretical
Tue May 01, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24291

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

A 50-50 FNDE/DGS split really neutralizes the extreme sector and country tilts Of FNDE, while remaining heavily Value.
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7612

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

I would not be surprised if an Interval fund emerged in a few years that directly owned and managed real estate, where the fundholders are a particular class of ownership with rights to both the property management fees and the capital appreciation. Actual ownership is special, but I think financial...
by Theoretical
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why even hold bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 2535

Re: Why even hold bonds?

I'm a bit confused. As far as I know, bonds generally yield somewhere around 0% return after inflation, and there are risks associated with bonds that shouldn't be overlooked. Aren't there investments that are about as volatile as bonds and still offer the same or higher returns? On the top of my h...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24291

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Re: the expense ratio and perspective:

It's .13%, and for $7.5 million in assets, that is $9750 in fees per year. That is remarkably low cost.
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources
Replies: 13
Views: 1829

Re: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources

I like the consistency this would bring to the table, especially the fact it is extremely hard to invest in truly small international stocks as a US investor without a lot of midcaps.
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5416

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

One thing I have thought about recently is that I wonder if there is a recency bias against the credit premium with most of the data being for a period of falling rates and Volkerized inflation. Namely that while corporate bonds will lose value from rising rates, their ability to pay on their fixed ...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed

If you want dribs and drabs, then your best bet is the Fidelity Conservative Income Fund, FCONX. It's very conservatively managed, with an SEC yield of 1.8% after ER (.35 is cheaper than most money markets) and a duration of .16 (much lower than VG's ultrashort). There's no redemption restrictions o...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed

Use a money market fund or ultrashort bond fund. Or you can DIY it by rolling t-bills, with say a 1-6 or 1-12 t-bill ladder. Savings accounts are one of the few retail investor advantages.
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 6283

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

...The raison d'etre of CTAs (commodity trading advisors, i.e. managed futures) has always been crisis alpha... Well, look at the chart. Both the index and the category average existed in 2008-2009. What do you mean by "crisis alpha?" If you mean that they stayed level instead of plunging in 2008-2...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 6283

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Something else about alternatives is that while you may not be able to determine in advance funds that will do well, you most certainly CAN determine that funds that are on shaky ground or are going to be terrible investments: Examples: 1. 2%/20% hedge fund nonsense or 3% fees 2. Something with extr...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 135
Views: 10728

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Also, road, school, water & sewer, and other essential infrastructure type revenue bonds are very good choices as well.
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large cap ETF with negative cash flow growth
Replies: 2
Views: 344

Re: Large cap ETF with negative cash flow growth

Not necessarily. What you've listed is a deep value ETF. If Value is what you're wanting, that one has it in spades.
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17619

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

The other concern, as someone open to these alts, I have with respect to the Stone Ridge products is that I really do not think the retail investors are getting nearly the bang for their buck they should for the serious liquidity sacrifice they're making in an interval fund structure. This is especi...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17619

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Shortening duration into cash (money market) would be ex-ante smart if it we did face rising rates and inflation.

Whether it ends up being the right call is another thing entirely.
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 6735

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

The 1940s underperformance was because the government capped interest rates in the wake of post-WWII inflation. It was an artificial cap. Is it important that the cap was artificial? Investors in T bills lost real value. We’re in a different time now and perhaps a rate cap is unlikely. But... we’re...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Portfolio for High Net Worth Individuals - Different Rules?
Replies: 67
Views: 8531

Re: Bond Portfolio for High Net Worth Individuals - Different Rules?

I had lunch with a wealthy older guy this week. He's a retired lawyer and MBA. What he does and advises is 2 years expenses in cash and 100% of the rest in a S&P 500 fund. "No bonds?" I asked. "No bonds," he confirmed. He has non-stock market investments, too, though. I don't know what percentage o...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 6735

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

How exactly are t-bills a risky asset long-term, when they historically have kept up with inflation? There's no guarantee they will keep up with inflation, unlike TIPS. And have they really tracked inflation that well in the past? It looks like they fell behind quite a bit in the 40s, a little in t...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 4286

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

Also, everyone and their dog has been piling into them, so they're unusually expensive stocks right now. In general, don't expect stocks of any type to help you in a recession. They may offset some of the worst losses, but even the hallmark example small value still had a big decline in 2002. Stocks...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 22
Views: 3749

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

For options that retail investors can access: Columbia Alternative Beta, Class A (NTF/Load Waived at Fidelity) - CLAAX - (0.5%) Janus Henderson Diversified Alternatives, Class T (NTF/Load Waived at Fidelity, Ameritrade, and Schwab) - JDATX - +0.2% Goldman Sachs Alternative Premia Fund - (NTF/Load Wa...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1656

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

I agree to a point, but you really need several hundred thousand in the bond portion in taxable to go individual OR you do something like 50-50 muni fund and several $10-15K blocks to amp up the overall credit quality, but you really have to be only buying at new issue and having no intention to sel...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 12055

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

jhfenton wrote:
Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:56 pm
It's an argument. At least one person I respect makes it.

I find it completely unconvincing.
Ditto.

Honda, Toyota, Sony, and etc... all had enormous international exposure while being Japanese companies. It has not worked out too well for Japan only investors by the same logic.
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1656

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

This is where market cap bond weighting becomes nasty, because there are a lot of states with crippling debt obligations like this. The ratings agencies are also pulling wool over people's eyes by rating many of these bonds AAA. However, because active bond funds, almost without fail reach for yield...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 4286

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

High quality intermediate muni bonds (BMBIX)
Brokered CDs
TIPS
Trend Following Managed Futures
Paid off home
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO ex-Russia?
Replies: 19
Views: 1577

Re: VWO ex-Russia?

The killing is figurative, but the shorting costs will be very significant relative to the investment, especially on a thinly traded etf and that's not counting the retail borrowing rate.

It means the ER of the VWO ex RSX will likely be significantly higher.
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO ex-Russia?
Replies: 19
Views: 1577

Re: VWO ex-Russia?

Why would you want to short the Russian market? It's one of the most deep value markets out there, even by its low standards, and even taking the corruption into account. If you want to do this, then what you need to do is identify the dollar amount that will be your EM allocation and divide it by ....
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?
Replies: 68
Views: 8239

Re: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?

A CD is a bond with FDIC protection and in the case of a direct bank cd, a put option. It is completely legitimate to use them as part of a bond allocation.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seven-Year Investor Old Beats Harvard’s Endowment Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 3034

Re: Seven-Year Investor Old Beats Harvard’s Endowment Fund

This is fundamentally a stacked deck, because dad picked a set of funds, enforced diversification, and weeded out crazy gimmicks. Imagine if he'd instead printed off 15 random funds with ten year histories from Morningstar and let the girls decide their asset allocations. So sorry, you have invested...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could black swan be a 10%-one-time tax on wealth ?
Replies: 12
Views: 2111

Re: Could black swan be a 10%-one-time tax on wealth ?

There have been proposals, similar to what Greece did, of collecting the tax on 401k balances. As this is a very large source of potential tax revenue for a potentially cash starved government, I'd say it's not a black swan, though the timing and speed would likely be. A wealth tax on post tax wealt...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vulture Investing - Liens
Replies: 3
Views: 1036

Re: Vulture Investing - Liens

I think I'd sooner be caught naked in Times Square than play this game of roulette as an investment . As a vocation and career , it could be extremely rewarding. As a passive alternative investment, I'd be very afraid. Let's put it this way, just about at the top of my list of worst gifts to give a ...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 24, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors
Replies: 6
Views: 953

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors

Here's what I mean: MTUM has basically paralleled a large growth index while having a definite negative value load. The AQR, Bridgeway, and now Alpha Architect momentum funds have some nasty negative alphas, especially on the smaller funds, but are at least neutral on value. Negative alphas of -2.5 ...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors
Replies: 6
Views: 953

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Everywhere, Including Factors

Disclaimer: I haven't read the article yet. I'm with Robert T on this one. It's good to get cross-sectional momentum neutral, but I think it's almost a unicorn or rainbow chasing to capture long-only (and with horrifying downside long-short).
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15201

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

High quality Short term bonds (and tbills) are basically uncorrellated to anything, so they are excellent diversifiers to equities regardless of economic conditions. Long treasuries historically have been moderately positively correlated to equity returns; however for the last 30-odd years, they've ...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24291

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Probably worse in a usual recession, since these are risk factors being tilted towards. A massive bubble a la the tech bubble means its value tilt will do well but a liquidity crisis will not help these at all. An inflationary recession would be an open question. I do think there is a premium associ...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller
Replies: 78
Views: 8819

Re: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller

I have had not one, not two, but three NW Mutual agents from the same office pull this kind of trick on me of saying they were referred by one of my Linkedin contacts, which when I reached out to them later was completely false. They used all of these tactics and even more, where they were so obnoxi...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for Robert T/ people familiar with factor analysis.
Replies: 10
Views: 1567

Re: Question for Robert T/ people familiar with factor analysis.

In my opinion, you left off the very best one of them all, IJS/VIOV - .25/.20 respectively. It's a really well constructed take on small value, especially because the underlying value-blend/growth index has a persistent value tilt, even in the growth index . So even though it has more than half the ...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4097

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

One set of funds I'd be really curious about are the fundamental index funds, especially with the recent PowerShares rebalance.

PRF, PRFZ, FNDX, FNDB, and FNDA
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4097

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

This is so incredibly impressive. What I'm seeing here is that the Quant Equity Group is producing some really impressive portfolios for the factor crowd, and that are sharper and smaller-cap tilts than their peers with iShares and especially the John Hancock ETFs. They have embraced the tracking er...