Search found 1847 matches

by jimkinny
Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund starts to self-correct
Replies: 269
Views: 29732

Re: Total Bond Fund starts to self-correct

I really don't understand how blase some holders of total bond fund are about their losses. No one knows when they will be made whole. The whole problem could have been sidestepped by buying treasuries direct without any fees and holding to maturity. I agree with the first part of your post but I would think the best option would have been to dump total bond fund type funds in 2021. Owners were taking a lot of risk for what, an 1.8% yield? While ordinarily I think market timing is dumb, 2021 was exceptional. I would not be surprised that some of the people posting about "self correcting" bonds were posting back then about not market timing and staying the course. So, as dbr wrote, intermediate funds lost in the range of 14% nomin...
by jimkinny
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying the dip, internationally
Replies: 14
Views: 2258

Re: Buying the dip, internationally

If you want to have 20% international, then do it. But not because you know that something is under or over valued. You do not know more than the markets.
by jimkinny
Thu Sep 01, 2022 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SPIA question...
Replies: 104
Views: 8622

Re: SPIA question...

Why are you considering buying an annuity?.
by jimkinny
Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the small cap effect really exist?
Replies: 29
Views: 3474

Re: Does the small cap effect really exist?

It's bait-and-switch. The original statement, in Banz' 1981 paper and in the Fama and French "Risk Factors" paper, simply referred to small firms. From 1981 for about twenty years, "everyone" told us that there was a small-cap premium, or small company outperformance, or a small firm effect, or higher risk-adjusted return from small-caps. It turned out to be very dubious. During this time, people who invested in S&P 500 index funds were told that these funds were seriously deficient because of lacking small-caps, and that it was of great practical importance to hold them. There must literally be hundreds of threads in the forum by people asking how best to add small-caps (not small-cap value , but simply small-caps)...
by jimkinny
Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Times expenses, and taxes
Replies: 53
Views: 2812

Re: Times expenses, and taxes

Taxes are an expense.
by jimkinny
Thu Aug 25, 2022 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EU Index Funds Out-Performed by US Index Funds Last 15 Years - Rebalancing Portfolio Away From EU Exposure?
Replies: 13
Views: 937

Re: EU Index Funds Out-Performed by US Index Funds Last 15 Years - Rebalancing Portfolio Away From EU Exposure?

It has been a long 15 years. If I knew then what I know now, then I would have sold all of international equity 15 years ago.

Hindsight is 20/20. It is a bit harder to see the next 5 years, let alone 15 years. So, I would not make any changes based upon someone's predictions.

The markets know what the recent performnce of international has been. The markets are pricing international at whatever level it is at now. Do you think you know more than the markets know? Or do those who write for seeking alpha?

I have been reading for about 5 years that international PE ratio makes it a good opportunity to buy. Maybe, maybe not.

Back 15 years ago international had been on a hot streak. It had outperformed domestic equity for awhile.
by jimkinny
Thu Aug 25, 2022 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones to Vanguard
Replies: 16
Views: 2565

Re: Edward Jones to Vanguard

I would think the executor of the estate should be able to tell Edward Jones to send the funds where ever the executor chooses. I do not think the heirs have to open accounts at Jones.

Call whatever institution you choose and ask them.

I was the executor of my fathers estate. His heirs did not have to open accounts at the banks FOR CDs) he used.

Maybe you could have Jones send all of the funds to you and then you send it to the heirs.
by jimkinny
Mon Aug 22, 2022 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impulsiveness To Market Time
Replies: 57
Views: 5036

Re: Impulsiveness To Market Time

nisiprius wrote: Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:15 am By being realistic about our own risk tolerance and keeping our stock allocation at the point where we can bear to watch stocks go down.
This, plus having a plan in place. Also I do not know anything that the markets do not already know.
by jimkinny
Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managing Mother's Investments
Replies: 13
Views: 1197

Re: Managing Mother's Investments

i would guess that 95-99% of stock and bond mutual funds have lost money this year. The SP 500 index is down about 8-9% as are most/all? intermediate term bond funds.

So, I would not be upset about locking in a loss because likely you will be buying funds that I losses also. I did not look the two funds you listed but maybe they too are down about the same as everything else.

I would make sure that Schwabb does not have authority to trade your mother's acccount. I would then buy what you think is best for your mother and suggest she talk to you before making or allowing any changes.
by jimkinny
Tue Aug 16, 2022 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BND
Replies: 13
Views: 2174

Re: BND

Maybe instead of BND buy an intermediate TIPS fund.
by jimkinny
Tue Aug 16, 2022 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Retirement (2.2% SWR, Annuities)
Replies: 644
Views: 45151

Re: Wade Pfau's Retirement (2.2% SWR, Annuities)

Kaione wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:03 am He suggests using annuities instead of bonds for guarding against sequence of return risks. As far as I can tell he also suggests 2.2% SWR because 4% only worked before due to rates of bonds and interest levels in the past.

I had the impression that people thought negatively of annuities, but i'm not sure. What do you guys think about his ideas?
There are good reasons to buy SPIA's and good reasons not to buy an annuity. Much depends on your individually situation and biases. Wade Pfau has a book that you could buy.
by jimkinny
Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund starts to self-correct
Replies: 269
Views: 29732

Re: Total Bond Fund starts to self-correct

Tom_T wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:21 am
jimkinny wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:55 am Don't forget to include inflation in your calculations. In real terms you can add another 6%-8% to your losses for 2022.
Which means losses on stocks are even worse.
Losses on stocks were worse, sure, but that not a good comparison. TIPS have the same term risk as nominal bonds but not the inflation risk. I do not think there is a good case to be made for owning a Total Bond fund unless your future need for the money is in nominal dollars.

I also think a good case could be made that the next time a 5 year Treasury has a 0.8% nominal yield it is time to sell whatever intermediate or long term bond you are holding. Buy and hold works most of the time but it clearly did not work for a total bond market owner at the beginning of 2022.
by jimkinny
Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund starts to self-correct
Replies: 269
Views: 29732

Re: Total Bond Fund starts to self-correct

Don't forget to include inflation in your calculations. In real terms you can add another 6%-8% to your losses for 2022.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dr. William Bernstein on Bonds
Replies: 106
Views: 23073

Re: Dr. William Bernstein on Bonds

My experience has been that when the front end of the yield curve is fairly flat like now -- or even inverted -- this is often followed by a significant drop in short-term rates, with the rest of the yield curve also declining to some degree. So if you buy a 2 or 3-year Treasury now and plan to hold it to maturity, the thing to think about is what bond reinvestment opportunities are likely to look like at maturity. Unlike Dr. Bernstein, I would rather buy an intermediate to longer term Treasury; this would lock in today's rates for longer and avert some reinvestment risk, offer the potential for sizable capital gains if the bond is sold prior to maturity due to a declining yield curve, and offer the potential to play the yield curve roll-d...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you agree that the 110 or 120 rebalancing strategy is outmoded?
Replies: 66
Views: 6636

Re: Do you agree that the 110 or 120 rebalancing strategy is outmoded?

I think age in bonds, or subtracting from 120 or 120 is a starting point but all of these rules are that may or may not be right for you.

The only way is to assess your need, willingness and ablity to take risk. There is a wiki page about this and likely it brought up in various BH threads.

Spend some time with portfolio calculators and thinking about your past behaviour and how it may change in the future as everyhthing changes for you with time.

Develope a plan per this viewtopic.php?t=6211
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Potentially moving EF into AA, with a twist!
Replies: 30
Views: 1937

Re: Potentially moving EF into AA, with a twist!

I think T bills would be fine for an emergency fund.
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What duration of Treasuries?
Replies: 37
Views: 5353

Re: What duration of Treasuries?

I would buy in the 5-10 year range. I might buy TIPS unless there was something odd about the spread between a 10 year nominal and a 10 year inflation protected. By odd I mean i do not know if the Treasury investors of the world have driven up the spread because of the recent inflation data. I am just pontificating but that is what I would look into.

One guy who used to post here referenced the Philidelphia Feds economist inflation surveys as guess/estimate of future infaltion. This guy wrote a book on bonds and forgot more than I will ever know about bonds. Larry Swedroe. You can easily find the Philly Fed survey.
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mom wants to up her equity allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 3090

Re: Mom wants to up her equity allocation

If your nother understand the risk and her ability, need and willingess to take those risks, then it is her call. It is her money.

Talk to her about need, ability and willingnes to take risk. Don't do son explaining but ask her what she thinks and the reasons why she feels that way.

It is her money and her decision.
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Over a long holding period, would a TSM/bond split ever outperform all TSM?
Replies: 27
Views: 1935

Re: Over a long holding period, would a TSM/bond split ever outperform all TSM?

The probability is that stocks will outperform bonds based upon historical data. Does the past predict the future with any precision?
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with $500,000 to invest today?
Replies: 60
Views: 7122

Re: What would you do with $500,000 to invest today?

If it was within my need, ability and willingness to take risk I likely would invest the money in an index total domestic market/international stock index fund or world index fund. This will be the highest risk and the probality of the highest return over long periods of time.

Something to consider though is that the typical mortgage rate is now about 5.5-6%. If you use that money to pay down the mortgage you have a gaurantee nominal 5.5-6% return with no risk. That is not bad and might be better than the guessestimates for future stock returns.

For me, it might be a coin flip based upon MY need, willingness and ability to take risk.

When you buy the house, rates likely will have changed but in what direction I have no idea.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock mutual funds now at risk of large end-of-year capital gain distributions, and is there a defense?
Replies: 6
Views: 825

Re: Are stock mutual funds now at risk of large end-of-year capital gain distributions, and is there a defense?

Vanguard sent an email several years ago. They presented the data from the recession of 2020. I do not remember the details but I am not worried at all. I think most of Vanguards customers are buy and hold, 401/403 owners as wells as owners of TIRA and Roths plus whatever else is out there that is tied to emplyment.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to invest about 50,000$ for new investor
Replies: 7
Views: 1308

Re: Best way to invest about 50,000$ for new investor

I would not wait to invest the money.You would be giving up years of potential returns. I would do the Roth and contribute as much as possible and within the contribution limits. What to invest in? Consider this 3 fund portfolio https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio#Choosing_your_asset_allocation I would think long and hard about my need, willingness and ability to take risk: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=349491 and this https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2008-11-09-0811070606-story.html You also might do this and post more detailed information per this portfolio question post https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212 Be sure and follow the link to Investment Planning contained within th...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 15, 2022 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredible yield curve increase over last month
Replies: 8
Views: 1556

Re: Incredible yield curve increase over last month

Thanks for posting. It is intersting to watch all of this stuff play out.
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do stock market returns come from?
Replies: 15
Views: 1591

Re: Where do stock market returns come from?

profits and speculation
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lost 1 million ! Any body else in same boat ? Looking for some reassurance
Replies: 394
Views: 59861

Re: Lost 1 million ! Any body else in same boat ? Looking for some reassurance

I do agree with you that there is a qualitative difference between losing 17% of a comaratively small amount of money vs a larger amount. I am doing nothing different and that is most likely the best that I can do. I also think one should have a plan in place and never put at risk that amount of money that will just be too much to sustain. We may be in for a prolonged recession or depression. I do not know. The likely outcome is that in a year or two, we will have forgotten all of the drama of today. One thing that might help is to look back at the last ten years and add up your capital gains. If you stayed in since 2008 the amount of gains is quite likely to help keep things in perspective. Look at an sp500 chart over the last 20 years and...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions will be considered. Stay the course is an option.
Replies: 17
Views: 2663

Re: Suggestions will be considered. Stay the course is an option.

I agree that that having a plan and sticking with it over the years is the best approach to investing. The standard Boglehead way is what works for the long and short term. But, a small amount of active investing seems to satisfy me and many others while staying with the plan through the good and bad times. If you do not have a plan, get one. Include your desire for whatever active betting you need and keep it small. I decided a long time that I was not going to simply rebalance into stocks as the stock markets went down. I am no longer working and you can rebalance into the poor house. I just invest some money at a 10% drop, more at 20%, more at 30% and the lower stocks go the more I put in relative to the previous amount. This works for m...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 12, 2022 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 3 things have you done to anticipate the recession?
Replies: 164
Views: 23777

Re: What 3 things have you done to anticipate the recession?

Looking at the history of recessions and market crashes (specifically 32% - 42% losses immediately, losses over 2-3 years), I am concerned that being invested in the market is a risk, vs. having cash that is losing at only 8-9% due to the recession. For reference, in 2008 I did nothing and lost both on my investments and house value. With this in mind, what are you doing to prepare for this eventuality? Having money in finacial markets is a risk. Having money out of the markets is also a risk. Timing is impossible. If you do not have a plan, make one that will last through markets ups and downs. Read the Boglehead guide books. We may or may not have a recession and if we have one, it may be mild or not and may last a long time or be brief....
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 12, 2022 4:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking retirement insights
Replies: 19
Views: 3632

Re: Seeking retirement insights

Consider delaying SS until 70 https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Social_Security#Planning_Social_Security_benefits Note the reason why delaying SS might be important to your wife. I think using a present value calculator can help you shed light of the lump sum vs monthly pension payouts. https://www.carboncollective.co/sustainable-investing/present-value-of-an-annuity#:~:text=The%20present%20value%20of%20an%20annuity%20is%20the%20value%20of,the%20time%20value%20of%20money. I would think you can find a calculator to help with the present value stuff. I most likely would just go to either blue print annuities or immediateannuities and get a qoute. I would use only a lifetime immediate annuity and compare that to what your pension offers. General...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any pointers on how to find a good CPA?
Replies: 28
Views: 2632

Re: Any pointers on how to find a good CPA?

I would think most CPAs are fairly knowledgeable. I would not worry too much about getting the best but would look for some who has a practice filled with clients similar to me. I likely would want some one with about 10 years post CPA credential experience.
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Truths in a Bear Market
Replies: 7
Views: 2105

Re: Investing Truths in a Bear Market

Taylor I think you and the others who started this forum have taught thousands or tens of thousands the truths in the Vector's newsletter. Thank
you so very much. We are indebted to you and hopefully I have been able to pass on to several of my friends at least a part of what I have learned from.

Thank you
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 11, 2022 12:41 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Time to short bonds and buy commodities?
Replies: 37
Views: 4650

Re: Time to short bonds and buy commodities?

So, someone writes something about stagflation. I have been reading about that for months. It is not some genius mad novel insight into the future. It is acutally fairly well accepted by many people, but not all or maybe even the majority, but I think more are piling on as NEW data comes in.

The question you need to know is the probability for "prolonged" stagflation being greater than what has already been priced into the markets.

You can not possibly know that. But you can gamble and bet.
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 10, 2022 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: historical relationship between recessions and housing prices?
Replies: 8
Views: 964

Re: historical relationship between recessions and housing prices?

Start following this "Calculated Risk". https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ This guy is on top of the housing markets. I am a casual follower. He also has a newsletter about the housing market. He posts a lot of economic data. From memory he has said there are demographic reasons we might not see much of a decrease or any decrease in home prices. We have a lot of prime age homebuyers all wanting to buy a house. Since 2008/2009 homebuilders have not built as many new homes as they had done before and therefore there is a bit of a supply shortage. I think he wrote that supply is catching up but not sure. Covid supply chains disruptions have slowed the home builders down. He also writes the supply of homes for sale is a key factor. I...
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 10, 2022 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Valic Guided Portfolio Services - Too expensive?
Replies: 12
Views: 938

Re: Valic Guided Portfolio Services - Too expensive?

i would use Vanguard or another broker that has low cost index funds. This stuff is not rocket science and you can manage this yourself. I would use Taylor's 3 fund portfolio. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio There is a long thread under the Theory section on this portfolio or you can buy the three fund boglehead guide book. Just a word of caution in that if you sell funds in an account that is not tax protected then make sure the capital gains is low enough to be acceptable to you. I would also give serious consideration to using a bond that has inflation protection. I don't to my regret. maybe I will. Vanguard has a short term and an intermediate term bond fund. I think they might be classified as actively managed but ...
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 10, 2022 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard notice of transaction submission is missing
Replies: 29
Views: 2349

Re: Vanguard notice of transaction submission is missing

AQ wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:54 pm
jimkinny wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 4:24 pm My biggest concern would be that I had not actually submitted the transaction request after the review page appears. I have done that, reviewed the transacton thinking it was the last step, then exited before submission. I get a notification almost immediately when done correctly.
I guess there is no way to confirm if this is indeed the case? I logged in and found no trace of my transaction order now. So this sounds a plausible reason.

Suddenly feel a bit bad. Not about the lost trade which would have made some money if executed, but about that I'm no longer as confident as in my youth that I'm not even sure what I actually did just a few hours ago :(
Me too. Were all in the same boat if it is any consolation.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 09, 2022 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Owning too many mutual funds in same asset class
Replies: 9
Views: 741

Re: Owning too many mutual funds in same asset class

I would likely use a 3 fund porfolio This is from the Boglehead wiki https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio

This leads to a very long thread viewtopic.php?t=88005

Or you could buy Taylor's book on the topic

You may have some special stuff going on like a need for bonds in a taxable account or a prohibitive amount of capital gains but I would head in the 3 fund direction with any special circumstance in mind that you may have.

You could post your portfolio like this suggests viewtopic.php?t=6212 and read the Investmnet Planning link.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 09, 2022 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard notice of transaction submission is missing
Replies: 29
Views: 2349

Re: Vanguard notice of transaction submission is missing

My biggest concern would be that I had not actually submitted the transaction request after the review page appears. I have done that, reviewed the transacton thinking it was the last step, then exited before submission. I get a notification almost immediately when done correctly.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backtracking on Financial Planner
Replies: 19
Views: 2290

Re: Backtracking on Financial Planner

I think most people will do just fine without an advisor. A little reading (Bogleheads Guide to Investing + Retirement + Three Fund portfolio) and post any questions and it will be good.

But, maybe you prefer an advisor. I know every time I have signed a contract to buy a house I have had buyers remorse and things turned out fine.

This is not the end of the world. Put things on pause, get your money back if you want but why did you sign up with this advisor? Investing is pretty simple to do right, once you figure out all of the wrong stuff and most of us have made mistakes.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation needed if also have pension
Replies: 11
Views: 1389

Re: Bond allocation needed if also have pension

Knowing what I know now I wish I had never had bonds, having bonds in my 20s and 30s was just silly and only for psychological reasons. I now view that as wasted growth I could have had. I also feel it's important to know your risk tolerance. I learned I have a fairly high risk tolerance, was never tempted to sell in any down turn. This may be in part due to the pension. Since I have a pension and am now vested, I feel I still don't need bonds, since I have guaranteed money. I could take my pension next year and get ~40k a year for the rest of my life with a 2% COLA. I understand how you feel and have felt the same at times. I think though for me I am using hindsight, knowing what has already transpired over the years, and with this knowle...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation needed if also have pension
Replies: 11
Views: 1389

Re: Bond allocation needed if also have pension

I think a pension can replace a portion of a bond allocation. I think the same of SS and lifetime immediate annuities.

I think that holding bonds can head off bad behaviour when the stock market is down by a substantial amount. When things go really bad stocks can and have been down by 30-50% for a very long time. So, figure out your need, ability and willingness to expose yourself to stock market risks. Pensions, SS and annuities affect those things.
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing lump sum after discontinuing Fidelity’s management
Replies: 5
Views: 657

Re: Investing lump sum after discontinuing Fidelity’s management

All of the above but read this thread or buy the book for the Three fund portfilio
viewtopic.php?t=88005
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 08, 2022 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did financial advisor choose this investment allocation?
Replies: 51
Views: 5756

Re: Why did financial advisor choose this investment allocation?

I'm sure they put more thought into their high net worth clients' portfolios. Everyone else probably gets the same cookie cutter allocation that looks complicated so they can justify 75 basis points for doing nothing. No financial advisor who is being honest with themselves and their clients should suggest that they are adding much, if any, value through investment selection. My background is in investment management, and I probably spend only 5-10% of my time with clients thinking about it or talking about it. The portfolio above is "fine". Yes, it's needlessly complex but the advisor has systems that make it just as easy to manage as a 2 or 3 fund portfolio. I wouldn't be impressed by the model portfolio that your brother was p...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 08, 2022 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought brokered CDs
Replies: 4
Views: 1076

Re: Bought brokered CDs

I have use brokered CDs for a long time. The rate you have seems good. I initially used a ladder but latter just bought longer term CDs. The best CDs rates I have owned were in the 7-10 range. It was hard to commit to those longer terms but they paid off. Don't forget to check out Treasuries. They are easy to buy in a brokerage account and if you ever might need to sell they are easier to sell. If CDs have a higher rate, I would buy the CDs.
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Prob getting JP Morgan to pay out IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 895

Re: Prob getting JP Morgan to pay out IRA

Twenty years ago I had trouble doing a 401 rollover from an insurance company. After several months I called and got connected eventually to the supervisor of the guy who actually did work. I told him my feelings and said I would keep calling back every 2 weeks.

I did get the money fairly quickly after that. I do not know if the call helped.

I would call JP Morgan and get some kind of compliance person and ask that person to look it it. Tell them you will make an official complaint if the compliance person can not fix the issues.
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio still relevant without adjustments?
Replies: 17
Views: 2779

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio still relevant without adjustments?

There a a lot of threads on buying Treauries, here is on https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=372727 Here is an article from Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/08/treasuries-fed.asp You can find a lot threads on this just by googling Bogleheads buying treasury or something similar I do not like using Treasury Direct. The login process was very good but somewhat long. I think that is because they have really good security. But the rest of the world doesn't seem to mind so much using Treasury Direct. You can only buy I bonds and EE bonds from Treasruy direct. The work around is applying a federal income tax refund to buy an additional 5K of I bonds. I have never done it. I have read several threads where peop...
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Boglehead Member Seeks Portfolio Advice
Replies: 12
Views: 1452

Re: New Boglehead Member Seeks Portfolio Advice

I would just simplify things as much as possible to a 3 fund portfolio using all index funds for cost savings using all three type of type of accounts you have. I would treat everything as one portfolio. Fidelity has some low cost index funds. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=88005 I would move the former employers stuff to a Fidelity IRA. There is a ton of evidence that index funds over the long haul will do better than actively managed funds. The way activley managed funds can seem to beat an index fund is they can use an inappropiate index when making comparisons and activley managed funds can take on more risk. There are also some years that growth does better than value but that can and does change as the years go by. I...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you were forced to use only Bonds/Fixed Income?
Replies: 73
Views: 9081

Re: What if you were forced to use only Bonds/Fixed Income?

I would use a lot of TIPS, maybe 20% investment grade corporate fund and maybe as much as 20% for the highest quality high yield bond fund (aka junk) as I could find. I have read that Vanguard's high yield bond fund has a bit higher grade bonds than most of these funds.
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Use 6% inflation rate for retirement planning?
Replies: 29
Views: 5101

Re: Use 6% inflation rate for retirement planning?

I have read that you can get an estimate of what the markets think inflation will be by looking up the difference between a 10 year TIPS and a 10 year nominal Treasury bond. The markets inflation number is the difference between the two over 10 years. You can do the same for the 20 year bonds. No one knows what inflation will be in 10 years but I would make a pretty big bet that it will be a lot closer to 2% than 4% over the next ten years. 2% is the Fereral Reserve's inflation target. Everyone knows they screwed up this past year. The Fed doesn't control post Covid 19 supply and oil supply but they can exert a lot of control on demand. I haven't looked up the market's evaluation (difference between TIPS and monimal) but I think you will fi...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we buy a cheap home for a mentally ill family member?
Replies: 61
Views: 8989

Re: Should we buy a cheap home for a mentally ill family member?

i think your kindness and genoristy is wonderful. I might prefer a rental. Maintenace on a house might be something I would not want to get involved with. I am glad there people like you in this world.
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury yield curve changes over last month
Replies: 28
Views: 4753

Re: Treasury yield curve changes over last month

I do not think you are surprised at what has happened and I do not think you would have been surpised if interests rates had gone up more. I am interested in the data in the coming months. I do enjoy listening/reading to what Larry Summers has to say. Muhamed El-Erian seems to agree with Summers but I do not follow him as closely as Summers who thinks inflation will exceed expectations and most like we are headed for some stagflation. I am not making a bet on this stuff but find it interesting. Summers thinks the Fed will have to rates higher than the current market prices. We will see.

Thanks for your post.
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio still relevant without adjustments?
Replies: 17
Views: 2779

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio still relevant without adjustments?

If inflation was my worry for fixed income I woulds use TIPS or I bonds. Vanguard had a paper that incuded some commodity index like fund, i am not sure what it is called. Google "Vanguard inflation" or similar. TIPS have the current inflation built into the current market price but will help with unexpected inflation. Short term TIPS have less of the term risk of longer dated TIPS. I prefer buying buying any Treasury bond through a broker. I bonds can be bought through Treasury Direct only. I Bonds are very popular here but have a purchase limit of 10K per SS # per year. There is a workaound. It is good for 5K without payment being deducted from a income tax refund. A lot of problems seem to have problems with this but they may b...