Search found 177 matches

by wintermute
Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix vs. Cable
Replies: 84
Views: 13194

We recently dumped Dish Network (long story) and installed a new HD OTA Antenna in the attic. The HD reception over the antenna is far better than anything over Dish or Cable. The antenna along with Netflix and TiVo costs me $22.99/month and is the greatest thing I've ever owned. I watch more tv no...
by wintermute
Tue Jan 18, 2011 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: small value premium time dependent?
Replies: 9
Views: 1162

Re: small value premium time dependent?

What are the counterarguments against this? Here's mine. Are you the same as the average dollar-weighted stock holder? You probably have more tax shelter so you can take more dividends and short term gains. Eg, a small, value, or reit fund (but don't forget you both pay trading costs). On the other...
by wintermute
Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timber REITs are tax-efficient
Replies: 32
Views: 6166

Personally I think correlation chasing makes about as much sense as performance chasing. I bet a lot of market sectors have low correlations with the total market. If you pick a bunch of totally random stocks they probably will too.

but maybe I'm wrong. :)
by wintermute
Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merriman- Keep Allocations the Same in Taxable & Tax Adv
Replies: 70
Views: 11154

I didn't see any mention of shared risk/return in this thread. Stocks held in taxable that are _not_ passed on share risk and return with the government. Ones that will be inherited, you retain the full risk/return, just like a Roth. However, that risk/return is asymmetric, which I don't ever seen m...
by wintermute
Fri Jan 14, 2011 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's investing tip #1/10 Take your risk on the equity side
Replies: 113
Views: 29887

What about credit spread compression when rates rise? Any chance of that happening?
by wintermute
Thu Jan 13, 2011 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax advantages of ETFs Overhyped
Replies: 7
Views: 1649

Funds are better than ETF's when ER's are the same or close. See Rick Ferri's recent posts about stale ETF NAV's hiding the true spreads. ETF's don't have minimums, so smaller portfolios can use them to get the desired AA. If you have enough to get Admiral shares, do it.
by wintermute
Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GORDO wins the 2010 Boglehead Contest!!!!
Replies: 32
Views: 4935

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter! Where will NFLX be in 12 days?
by wintermute
Fri Dec 24, 2010 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The new young investor: Shunning stocks
Replies: 30
Views: 4504

Here's my personal story, FWIW: I was 100% some sort of money market fund in an old 401k until I was 25, and about 80% until 27. In my 20s I saw my boss and others fretting over mutual funds and such and I decided it was a zero-sum suckers game. It made no sense to me that everyone thought they coul...
by wintermute
Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say TIPS are less tax efficient than nominals?
Replies: 17
Views: 2383

If TIPS are a significant part of your assets, it's probably a good idea to try to keep them in your Roth. I've struggled over T-ira vs Roth placement (putting higher expected return assets in Roth vs making each account's assets equal).
by wintermute
Sun Dec 19, 2010 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do midcaps seem to be missing from model portfolios?
Replies: 20
Views: 3094

Plug them into morningstar instant x-ray and balance so they match a total stock index like VTI.
by wintermute
Sun Dec 12, 2010 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can a short-term bond fund lose money over a 1 year horizon?
Replies: 11
Views: 2302

A fund is a ladder that keeps rolling over. If you need the money in 1 year, you don't want it to still have a 1 year duration risk when that year is up. (And actually short term funds are about 2-3 years.) Use either a maturity/duration of a bond or CD that matches when you need the money, or use s...
by wintermute
Tue Dec 07, 2010 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does any Retiree buy TIPS bonds via Treasury Direct?
Replies: 11
Views: 2197

You can do both. Build a ladder and use a fund for ease of rebalancing or selling in case of emergency.
by wintermute
Sun Nov 28, 2010 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you tell your kids how much you're worth?
Replies: 45
Views: 6377

I tell my kids everyday. Keeps them in line. :P One of the most valuable exercises I ever had occurred in, I think it was junior high school, seventh or eighth grade, when we were given the task of "making a budget for a family that earns $5,000 a year." (This was in the late fifties). Basic financi...
by wintermute
Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ¿Could you turbocharge for MPG, not HP?
Replies: 55
Views: 4392

Turbocharged gas engines typically have less torgue for a given horsepower and substantially less torgue than a diesel engine. So don't expect a turbocharged gas engine in a pickup truck to give you the towing/hauling capacity. Turbocharged diesels on the other hand may have less torgue than a norm...
by wintermute
Mon Nov 22, 2010 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds are suddenly very respectable
Replies: 47
Views: 6000

I do a barbell approach (partially because of my terrible 401k):

20% short-term gov/credit
5% TIP
5% TLT (long treasuries)
= 30%

That gives me ~4.7 duration, last I checked (but duration is tricky with tips).

(I also have a few % gold and junk, but that's another story).
by wintermute
Sat Nov 20, 2010 1:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ally Bank [lowers interest rate on savings]
Replies: 43
Views: 6631

Capital one has InterestPlus which is 1.3% + 10% of that as a bonus, w/o a costco card. If you use IE as your browser it doesn't show up tho!
by wintermute
Fri Oct 22, 2010 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: long-term gains: >1 year or >=1 year?
Replies: 16
Views: 3030

For some stupid reason I didn't actually search irs.gov. I shouldn't be doing financial stuff in the middle of the night. :?

Langkawi, thanks for the info.
by wintermute
Fri Oct 22, 2010 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: long-term gains: >1 year or >=1 year?
Replies: 16
Views: 3030

long-term gains: >1 year or >=1 year?

From I've read online, long term capital gains are for assets held > 1 year. Can someone in the know confirm this for sure? I bought a stock on 12/31/2009 and I'm wondering if I were to sell it on the 31st, if I could take it as a long-term. (For those who curious, it's NFLX, which I've already sold...
by wintermute
Thu Oct 14, 2010 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taylor
Replies: 138
Views: 21927

Keep your spirits up! If you apply the same determination as you have to investing, you'll have a big edge up on it.
by wintermute
Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High frequency trading on 60 minutes last night
Replies: 46
Views: 5528

The problem is the exchanges and the SEC. I have a huge problem with the completely arbitrary trade cancellations which favor the HFT firms. That is what the SEC should be investigating. When HFT algos screw up and lose millions they get trades canceled. If you ever make a mistake, try calling up th...
by wintermute
Sat Oct 09, 2010 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "risk" is so inconsistently used, its meaningless
Replies: 28
Views: 3220

When I first starting reading about investing, I found the term "risk" to be a bucket that various unknowns were thrown into and it annoyed me also. I would like to third the idea that everyone say "volatility" or "price risk" or something instead of just "risk".
by wintermute
Sat Oct 09, 2010 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: State Street ETF as an secondary alternative to Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 1505

I think splitting among logins is good idea when practical (ie, you meet all the minimums you want to). ETF's I think are even more transparent than funds because they are redeemed by authorized third parties.
by wintermute
Sun Oct 03, 2010 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ article: "Adviser Says No to ETFs"
Replies: 37
Views: 5339

Stop-loss only works when the stock is down for a long time. It should be called a loss lock-in order. I guess there are just a lot of truly clueless investors out there (and maybe bad advisers). Back when I traded only individual stocks, it seemed obvious to me that a "stop-loss" was a bad idea, an...
by wintermute
Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: best hedge(s) against falling home equity?
Replies: 22
Views: 2444

If the market goes down as a whole, others are along with yours - rents probably would too. Since you always need a place to live, only relative values are important. What you're losing when things go down is opportunity cost. Also it's probably impossible get a new mortgage when you have negative e...
by wintermute
Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Underperformance of Bridgeway Ultra-Small Mkt Fund BRSIX
Replies: 6
Views: 1587

Using a benchmark that's impossible to accurately track isn't a fair comparison. A better measure would be total return and sharpe ratio vs other funds.
by wintermute
Sun Sep 26, 2010 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Treasuries must go down"
Replies: 59
Views: 10119

FWIW, I have a bit of a barbell. Since the only bond found in my 401k that's half decent is a short-term gov/credit, and being a fan of the Permanent Portfolio concept I have: 20% short-term gov/high-quality 5% TIP 5% TLT 5% JNK 2% IAU (and I have one gold coin) That gives me a weighted duration of ...
by wintermute
Sun Sep 26, 2010 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The bed bug problem
Replies: 31
Views: 5577

I've been bitten before in a hotel room, 2 nights in a row (switched rooms after that and told them). It itched like crazy for days! I keep my luggage in the basement in case it gets infested. I looked all over that room, under the mattress, along the walls, etc, but couldn't find the bastards.
by wintermute
Fri Sep 24, 2010 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Do You Do with Your Play Money?
Replies: 28
Views: 4461

Have a play account but generally take it pretty seriously. Have my own railroad index that I made a year ago and take bets in companies I analyze. Most recent purchase was NFLX @ $100. I sold my NFLX down to around the ~$500 I originally purchased. I bought it at $56.06, sold most of it at $168.17...
by wintermute
Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Treasuries must go down"
Replies: 59
Views: 10119

One thing to consider in a high inflation environment would be to move tips from a T-IRA to Roth to avoid any further taxation on your purchasing power. If they seemed to be exceeding stocks.
by wintermute
Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any way to get a newspaper to print a retraction?
Replies: 28
Views: 3632

The few times I have seen a news article on a subject about which I had firsthand knowledge, there was always some factual error in the article. I've learned to lower my expectations. +1 I extend this and assume that ALL news is factually wrong or missing important details that likely changes the c...
by wintermute
Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 500% bullion return in 48 hours! :)
Replies: 19
Views: 2701

People I know use forever stamps right after buying them. You should keep them for several years at least.
by wintermute
Thu Sep 16, 2010 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When will mortgage rates increase?
Replies: 9
Views: 1638

Keep in mind that higher interest rates can lower the price of homes. Can, not will. I found a couple interesting links: blog discussion: http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2010/02/09/do-rising-interest-rates-lead-to-falling-home-prices/ Marc Roth says they're positively correlated, not negatively: http:...
by wintermute
Sat Sep 11, 2010 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motor oil, 5W20 vs 5W30
Replies: 33
Views: 14346

Check out the bobistheoilguy.com forums. People there debate endlessly over oil brands, additives (the ones already in your oil - not those snake oil additives), and used oil analysis.
by wintermute
Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broader effects of index investing
Replies: 6
Views: 1710

This is something I thought about when first studying investing. My conclusions:If more people index, it leaves more opportunities for active managers and stock pickers. More active funds would become worth their fees. Indexing is simply trying to mirror everyone else's aggregate valuations, so it a...
by wintermute
Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another candidate for 'greatest post' - re gold and silver
Replies: 9
Views: 2210

I came to a similar conclusion recently. Silver is easier to use as money. A 1/10oz gold coin is tiny (diameter of a dime) and very thin. I just got a couple rolls of Kennedy half dollars. The reason I went with Kennedy's is so they aren't mistaken for regular coins and sent thru a change machine. A...
by wintermute
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online dating sites - worth it?
Replies: 253
Views: 44813

Don't get discouraged if you don't get replies for a while. I've had no responses for a while, then all of a sudden a whole bunch. It's random. I'd like to second the point about tailoring your replies the profiles, but try to be different at the same time, if you can. Pick something related instead...
by wintermute
Sun Sep 05, 2010 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online dating sites - worth it?
Replies: 253
Views: 44813

Try okcupid - there's a ton of women on there, at least in my area. plentyoffish is the other free site. Those seem to be the big ones these days.
by wintermute
Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the best way to buy physical gold and silver?
Replies: 76
Views: 14653

If you're DCA'ing your physical, a local coin shop may be cheaper, even with sales tax. They charge sales tax? Yikes. That would mean an additional 8.875%. I don't think the tax applies unless you live in Oklahoma. BearWolf Hmm. Some sites say that purchases above $1000 and legal tender coins are t...
by wintermute
Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth article on using CDs instead of treasuries
Replies: 47
Views: 8839

Does anyone know for sure if Ally can refuse early withdrawls? The deposit agreement on their "legal" page doesn't mention it.
by wintermute
Sat Sep 04, 2010 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the best way to buy physical gold and silver?
Replies: 76
Views: 14653

AMPEX has good prices, but it takes a while. They are strict about payment (bill pay checks must have signatures, personal checks must clear for 5 days, etc). They take cards, but it's 3% extra. There's $25 shipping. If you're DCA'ing your physical, a local coin shop may be cheaper, even with sales ...
by wintermute
Sat Sep 04, 2010 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another casualty of Student Loan Debt: relationships
Replies: 32
Views: 4060

Easy money = bubbles everywhere and debt slavery. Taking on debt to go to school is risky.
by wintermute
Fri Sep 03, 2010 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best 401K plan for tiny company?
Replies: 9
Views: 5136

I researched this a few months ago and the best two I found were: theonline401k.com - cheapest for the company (Schwab funds) Employee Fiduciary - cheapest for employees (Vanguard funds) I have a spreadsheet comparing a few providers. You just plug in the # of participants and how much money in is t...
by wintermute
Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What You Should Know About the “Bond Bubble
Replies: 22
Views: 4237

I was thinking about setting a stop-limit on the 5% of my portfolio that's in TLT (ishares long-term treasuries), to protect against a rate spike on treasuries if people lose confidence. I'm generally anti-stop-loss tho and think it's a terrible idea on volatile stocks. I'm just going to continue to...
by wintermute
Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bond question
Replies: 11
Views: 1532

There isn't, you can use:

25% GLD or IAU (which is cheaper and still liquid)
25% SPY or VTI
25% TLT or buy 30 year treasuries
25% T-bills, cash, or maybe treasury money market
by wintermute
Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bond question
Replies: 11
Views: 1532

I don't get why anyone would use the PP fund when you can do it cheaper and more accurately using some of the most liquid etf's on the market.
by wintermute
Tue Aug 31, 2010 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year TIPS reopening 9/2
Replies: 20
Views: 3398

Reversion to the mean. A bet that the QE will come back as inflation when the fed is too slow after things pick back up.
by wintermute
Fri Aug 27, 2010 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Many Minds Hypothesis (MMH) over the EMH
Replies: 19
Views: 2063

While they may not get the solution, my money would be on the physicists. Theres only a few of them but they are much more likely to know the subject. You must think it strange that the prices set by those Soviet era central economic planning committees composed of experts were trumped by the “not ...
by wintermute
Tue Aug 17, 2010 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $100 bills lying on the sidewalk
Replies: 12
Views: 3657

Re: $100 bills lying on the sidewalk

Under normal conditions arbitragers would reduce these differences to less than a few basis points within seconds, but for weeks there existed a condition in which one could buy $100 bills for $99. We think of the bond market as the finest example of market efficiency, but during financial crisis t...
by wintermute
Thu Aug 12, 2010 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment and AA Advice for 401K (want to retire in 5 yrs)
Replies: 6
Views: 1209

I'm not clear if it's 17% (34% of one of two 401k's) or 34% of the total. In any case, if you feel compelled to keep some, limit it to 5% of your portfolio. You could increase/add some short-term bonds some to help damp the single company volatility. Upon more thought, I think a smallish emergency f...
by wintermute
Tue Aug 10, 2010 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bond market seems to be flashing deflation coming...
Replies: 36
Views: 4564

one question lets says we do get a spat of deflation that last several years...what would be that do to the housing market? would that be positive? negative? neutral thing? We already have. Housing is what's been deflating and taking the rest of the economy with it. It really depends on your own fi...