Search found 127 matches

by GLState
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years
Replies: 8
Views: 2276

Re: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved to "it's highest level in almost 17 years" in October. https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm The University of Michigan doesn't indicate any drastic changes in consumer sentiment in early November. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu...
by GLState
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years
Replies: 8
Views: 2276

Re: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved to "it's highest level in almost 17 years" in October. https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm The University of Michigan doesn't indicate any drastic changes in consumer sentiment in early November. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
by GLState
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E ratio only 18??
Replies: 8
Views: 1047

Re: P/E ratio only 18??

http://www.multpl.com/

According to S&P Dow Jones the trailing P/E Ratio is 23.30 as of June 30th, 2017. The Projected P/E Ratio is 18.34 as of Oct 31st..

WSJ ... http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
by GLState
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 6694

Re: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement

John Bogle also says "Forget the needle, buy the haystack". I see the US as only a part of a larger haystack (the world market). We wouldn't think of only buying stocks from the city or state where we were born or raised. Why buy only stocks from the country in which we were born and raised? Google,...
by GLState
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1761

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

Evelyn ... The difference you see in Taylor's inflation numbers from published numbers is because he seems to be calculating change from the previous December CPI to the recent December's CPI. Taylor is comparing TBM with inflation, so is calculating the changes in values in a similar way. The FED c...
by GLState
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1761

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

Another idea! Go to Portfolio Visualizer https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio and enter a portfolio of 100% VBMFX. Click the Analyze button. Scroll down and you'll see a bar chart of each year's returns. Mouse over each bar to see the value. 1987 1.54 last four years... 2013 -2.26 ...
by GLState
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1761

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

In the page that you linked to, the 15.2% return for 1986 seems extremely high. VBMFX (Total Bond- Investors) has an inception date of 12/11/86. VBMFX began trading 12/11/86 at $10. It finished the year (12/31/86) at $9.94. No dividends were paid.
by GLState
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1761

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

Total Return assumes the reinvestment of all dividends. If dividends are not reinvested (spent), investors wouldn't see the same returns. Morningstar is a reliable source for fund return data. You can find inflation data at any of the links below: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/community/teaching-ai...
by GLState
Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unable to Escape from Quicken Island ...
Replies: 66
Views: 8031

Re: Unable to Escape from Quicken Island ...

I've been a Quicken user since it was a DOS checkbook program. I always looked forward to the new versions. But, it has been a long time that any new features have been useful to me. I used Managing Your Money and Microsoft Money in tandem with Quicken for a number years. They've left us. I've looke...
by GLState
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bi-weekly rebalancing with purchases a bad idea?
Replies: 14
Views: 807

Re: Bi-weekly rebalancing with purchases a bad idea?

I don't think you are doing anything studid or dangerous, but you're probably not affecting your risk or return in a meaningful way either. Shooting for a precise allocation bi-weekly seems to me to be wasted time and effort. Your method may have more benefit in a taxable account rather that a 401K ...
by GLState
Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Patient but not that lucky
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Patient but not that lucky

It is unlikely that we would have invested enough in AMZN, GOOG, APPL, FB, etc to make a difference in our life...they would only have a small allocation in our portfolio. It is unlikely that we would have held these throughout their ups and downs. Would we have sold when we had a 10%, 20% or 50% ga...
by GLState
Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional
Replies: 9
Views: 840

Re: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional

You can move the traditional IRA to a Vanguard traditional IRA without paying taxes. There may be fees on the American Funds end, but you'll save much more in the long run. Call Vanguard and they'll take care of the process. You "could" leave the traditional IRA at American Funds for now and open a ...
by GLState
Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional
Replies: 9
Views: 840

Re: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional

American Funds are load funds . In your traditional IRA (old 401k), you are likely paying a 5 to 5.75% load to buy class A shares. In a 401k, loads are not usually assessed. Your old 401k would be better off at Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab. Your costs would be much lower. In your new 401k, American...
by GLState
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New for Vanguard!
Replies: 28
Views: 4503

Re: New for VANGUARD!

Is it the Wellington and Wellesley names that are the attraction? What if they were the Smith and Jones funds? As of now, they are just two new funds with familiar names with no holdings or history. I wouldn't be in any hurry to buy. I'd rather buy a Target or Life Strategy Fund.
by GLState
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

For R users, a new version of quantmod (0.4-11) has been released. Yahoo has been slowly improving their data and with this release of quantmod, R with yahoo data seems to be back to normal. My preliminary testing seems OK. Alpha Vantage is an additional option for data. Just register on their site ...
by GLState
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 2021

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

neilpilot wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:05 am
Why am I confused by this discussion? Isn't VTSMX, or VTSAX, or VTI a total US Stock Market fund?
According to the OP, a Total Market fund (VTSMX, VYSAX, or VTI) isn't offered in their 401K. They want to replicate the TM fund with large, mid-cap, and small funds.
by GLState
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone feel like talking "R"
Replies: 50
Views: 12882

Re: Anyone feel like talking "R"

I use R to test the ideas, concepts, and portfolios found on the boglehead's forum and elsewhere. In R, it is easy to compare the past risks and returns of the 3 fund, lazy portfolios, Larry portfolio, etc. I can see the effects of adding gold, REITS, or small value to a portfolio. I can test if reb...
by GLState
Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

It looks likes Yahoo is currently adjusting OHLCV for splits. Adj Close is adjusted for splits and dividends. I'm looking at IBM data to arrive at this conclusion. In 1962, IBM stock was around the $400 or $500 range if I remember correctly. From a .csv file downloaded today Date Open High Low Close...
by GLState
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Boglehead Board Game!!
Replies: 31
Views: 3119

Re: Boglehead Board Game!!

You buy a $5000 wrist watch :D
by GLState
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP
Replies: 10
Views: 2074

Re: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP

Even if it's possible to come with work-arounds to get the historical data, it's practically useless unless Yahoo also resumes calculating the adjusted closing for dividends. Yahoo also provides dividend data. We'll have to use this dividend data to calculate our own adjusted close prices to calcul...
by GLState
Mon May 29, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One Last Beginner Question Regarding Bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 3087

Re: One Last Beginner Question Regarding Bonds

I would suggest sticking with what you have. You don't know why the alternatives may be good choices. None of us know what the next crash will be like. Your portfolio is good enough. You seem to be planning for a crash and yet you have an 80/20 stock bond portfolio with a size & value tilt. Perhaps,...
by GLState
Fri May 26, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard vs higher cost bond funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1028

Re: Vanguard vs higher cost bond funds

If you look at the PTRQX asset allocation on Morningstar you'll see that its bond holdings are 181.51% long, 85.98% short, for a net of 95.82% bonds. In the past, PTRQX has been "worth it" if return is your only concern. PTRQX is a "Total Return" bond fund, which has different goals than a "Total Bo...
by GLState
Thu May 25, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index's Holding Cash? Why?
Replies: 7
Views: 1172

Re: Index's Holding Cash? Why?

It looks like PTTRX is shorting cash and bonds they don't like to buy more bonds that they do like. Personal capital must just be showing net...Morningstar shows short and long positions. edit: PTTRX is short 38.42% Cash and Net 138.17% Bonds (210.64% long, 72.47 short). http://beta.morningstar.com/...
by GLState
Thu May 25, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 7844

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Hmm, interesting. But, let's say that I had created a portfolio containing these top-performing companies + 40% total bond fund, and held that portfolio for 40 years. Would the risk-adjusted returns (as measured, let's say, by the Sharpe ratio) have been as good as, or better, than a 60/40 Boglehea...
by GLState
Thu May 25, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 7844

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Index investors know that we will never have the "best" returns, risk adjusted or not. There will always be an asset class or asset will have a higher return than our portfolio. We are content to share in the growth of the world economy by owning most of the corporations in the world. We'd likely ha...
by GLState
Wed May 24, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convenient listing of additions and removals of companies in international indices?
Replies: 7
Views: 830

Re: Convenient listing of additions and removals of companies in international indices?

OK I will bite. I don't know if there is an official site but here is what I do. Because I am a world stock investor, I keep a spreadsheet which lists all the companies I own and how many dollars I have invested in them. Why? I don't worry about countries but when random news happens e.g. VW diesel...
by GLState
Mon May 22, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

The yahoo data has changed and it doesn't look like it will be back as we knew it. In the one of the Yahoo support forums, a mod responded: Nixon Official 'Hoo Staff Nixon Official 'Hoo Staff ‎05-17-2017 02:59 PM Re: Is Yahoo! Finance API broken? Hi All - This feature was discontinued by the Finance...
by GLState
Sun May 21, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 14162

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

The "boglehead way" advocates investing in the Total Stock Market without regard to the political and economic climate. We hold the whole market without attempting to weed out "bad" stocks or sectors from the "good". We don't make buy and sell decisions based on past performance. Why shouldn't these...
by GLState
Sat May 20, 2017 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"
Replies: 10
Views: 2585

Re: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"

The 2nd Grader's portfolio on MarketWatch is a three fund portfolio but it is not THE three fund portfolio. According to this boglehead page, https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio , Taylor Larimore's Three Fund Portfolio is equal weight. "Vanguard funds From Vanguard's list of "core f...
by GLState
Thu May 18, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd ETF Live NAV?
Replies: 17
Views: 933

Re: Vangaurd ETF Live NAV?

Am I missing something, or is there not a way to compare Bid-Ask pricing live to determine if there is a premium or discount? I'm not sure how "live" it is, but Morningstar shows bid/ask spread along with discount/premium. The TDAmeritrade thinkorswim platform shows bid/ask spread can get the IV fo...
by GLState
Thu May 18, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google Finance Ticker Symbol to Monitor Oil Price and CPI-U
Replies: 1
Views: 966

Re: Google Finance Ticker Symbol to Monitor Oil Price and CPI-U

There aren't ticker symbols for everything that you might want to track. CPI-U and WTI Crude price histories are available on the FRED web site (St. Louis FED) or Quandl. This data could be added to a Google Sheet after downloading. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed...
by GLState
Thu May 18, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Re-balancing Math: Help Needed
Replies: 3
Views: 446

Re: Asset Allocation Re-balancing Math: Help Needed

Combine the values of both accounts. Then multiply the desired allocation for each symbol by the total dollar amount. If you have a total of $10000 in both accounts, your rebalancing targets would be as below: VBMPX 0.200 $2,000.00 VIIIX 0.486 $4,860.00 VMCPX 0.024 $240.00 VSCPX 0.090 $900.00 SWISX ...
by GLState
Wed May 17, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

CRSP method for adjusting prices for stock splits and dividends.
http://www.crsp.com/products/documentat ... lculations
by GLState
Wed May 17, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

However, if you use the download button to grab a CSV file the issue goes away. You get the adjusted prices. Thanks. I had given up on using Yahoo since it didn't appear that they were providing the adjusted price. I'll download instead. Yahoo still gives an "adjusted price" but it is no longer adj...
by GLState
Wed May 17, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: Yahoo downloads not working. Changes to yahoo's API

As I understand it, a few weeks ago yahoo switched from http to https. They have now changed the historic data download url. R's quantmod developer is working on a fix. Likely, there will also be fixes forthcoming for Python datareader. Excel macro users will have to edit their macros.
by GLState
Tue May 16, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

This evening, I can't download any Yahoo stock or fund prices into Excel, Python, or R. Hopefully just a short-term problem. Downloading prices from google into R works ok.
by GLState
Tue May 16, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

And so ... are you saying that the Adjusted Price in the CSV file depends on the starting date of the data in the CSV file? [Also note that the the CSV file is sorted now on date in opposite way than last year. And downloaded file seems to have "-2" at end of name perhaps to indicate a change in th...
by GLState
Tue May 16, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

from investopedia: "An adjusted closing price is a stock's closing price on any given day of trading that has been amended to include any distributions and corporate actions that occurred at any time prior to the next day's open. The adjusted closing price is often used when examining historical ret...
by GLState
Tue May 16, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11684

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

Do you have a specific example?

Adjusted Close IBM...

edit: This is not correct either

Code: Select all

May 08, 2017	152.80	153.47	152.20	153.03	153.03	7,492,000
May 08, 2017	1.5 Dividend
May 05, 2017	153.52	155.78	153.00	155.05	155.05	12,521,300
by GLState
Fri May 12, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use Python to analyze their finances?
Replies: 40
Views: 8438

Re: Anyone use Python to analyze their finances?

With these two lines of code in R: library(tidyquant) data <- tq_get("IBM", get = 'key.stats') I can get all of the following metrics for IBM: [1] "Ask" "Ask.Size" [3] "Average.Daily.Volume" "Bid" [5] "Bid.Size" "Book.Value" [7] "Change" "Change.From.200.day.Moving.Average" [9] "Change.From.50.day.M...
by GLState
Thu May 11, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Play-money Investment Simulator?
Replies: 11
Views: 1401

Re: Play-money Investment Simulator?

TDAmeritrade has Papermoney, which uses the ThinkorSwim platform to trade stocks, options, and futures. https://www.thinkorswim.com/t/pm-registration.html . I've had an account for years, but I see its currently only for a 60 day free trial. You're using the same platform that you would be using wit...
by GLState
Thu May 11, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use Python to analyze their finances?
Replies: 40
Views: 8438

Re: Anyone use Python to analyze their finances?

For the OPs intended use, I would lean to using Excel for its easy input and short learning curve. I use R to explore financial data beyond my portfolio. With R or Python, we can do the work of the Portfolio Visualizer web site, Simba's spreadsheet or Morningstar's Growth of $10,000 charts, with the...
by GLState
Tue May 09, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JPMorgan index ETFs (commission free at etrade)
Replies: 3
Views: 421

Re: JPMorgan index ETFs (commission free at etrade)

JPGE is a global fund that has 25% of its portfolio in US stocks, so it would perform better than a 100% foreign fund over the past couple of years. From the prospectus, JPGE's gross expense ratio is 0.93% with a 0.55% waiver until 2/29/2020. JPUS has a also has an expense waiver...0.90% in the pros...
by GLState
Sun May 07, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Cost Active Funds: Theoretical Advantages?
Replies: 7
Views: 916

Re: Low Cost Active Funds: Theoretical Advantages?

I read a report from morningstar of the best actively managed funds. Guess what, most of them where Vanguard and American Funds, which are low cost (yearly expenses). Also, American Funds released a report stating that the most important two variables that can tell you if the actively managed funds...
by GLState
Sat May 06, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stock prices move more while the market is open?
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

Re: Why do stock prices move more while the market is open?

The index doesn't "trade" overnight but the effects of news, earnings, etc should still be reflected in the difference between the previous day's close and the current day's open. In the stock's and ETF's that pay dividends, we are not taking into account those dividends...so, that is a problem when...
by GLState
Sat May 06, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stock prices move more while the market is open?
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

Re: Why do stock prices move more while the market is open?

I also used GSPC and MSFT and got the same results as you did. I think we're missing something in the way we were creating the graphs. Overnight plus Intraday returns should sum to our total returns. I created a histogram of overnight and intraday returns for GSPC. The overnight and intraday movemen...
by GLState
Sat May 06, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stock prices move more while the market is open?
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

Re: Why do stock prices move more while the market is open?

SPY rather than ^GSPC

for the time period of 2007 to yesterday, using SPY, I get:
annualized return Market Open - 2.35%
annualized return Market Closed - 2.82%

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