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by Tamalak
Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to buy bond funds?
Replies: 15
Views: 2438

Re: Is now a good time to buy bond funds?

Today is a pretty amazing dip. Tempting for market timers, but it should give you a good idea of the volatility you should expect if you buy TLT.

Locking in 4%+ rates on your bonds in the long term, and maximizing the negative correlation your bonds have with your stocks, are both attractive prospects. But can you handle two rollercoasters at the same time?
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, again
Replies: 16
Views: 1227

Re: Bonds, again

KPG wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:51 pm As of 1-26-24 ytd my VCSH, short term corporate is .01% and VFIDX is minus .85%. Would it be better to reinvest the dividends into a shorter duration fund?
Since your line of thinking seems to run in the direction of "never lose any money" I would recommend a money market fund.
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, again
Replies: 16
Views: 1227

Re: Bonds, again

KPG wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:31 pm For us a 60/40 stock/bond allocation is conservative. Our allocation now is 34% stocks and 66% bonds. I do not need any more bonds. Is there any other way to recoup those losses?
Bonds fall in price when their yields go up. You will recoup your losses either with the higher yield (which will take the duration of the fund to break even) or when yields fall again (which will raise the price of the bond).

Sort of calamity that causes defaults, bonds self-heal their losses (and then some) if you just hold on to them.
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 01, 2024 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasonable expected return of equities
Replies: 38
Views: 4586

Re: Reasonable expected return of equities

My two formulas for expected rate of return are: Inverse world P/E + 10 year Treasury - 10 year TIPS (currently 5% + 3.9% - 1.8% = 7.1%) This is the same thing as: Inverse world P/E + 10 YR breakeven inflation rate Yes - the formula is "real returns will be inverse P/E" Cyclically adjusted world P/E, right? Where do you get that number from? I found one source ( Siblis Research ) that lists it as 22.31 as of Jan 1, 2024, though I'm not sure how often they update that number or if there's a fresher source. That's CAPE 10. I'm looking at CAPE 1: https://siblisresearch.com/data/global-markets-pe/#:~:text=At%20the%20moment%2C%20the%20trailing,whole%20is%20currently%20reasonably%20priced. However, I oversimplified my calculation. I do...
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 01, 2024 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832950

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

For those targeting a global market cap weight for stocks, two questions. 1. What is the real rate of return you are hoping/planning for over the next say 30-40 years? 2. Why stop at global market weight for just stocks? Why not hold all investable assets at cap weight (gold, silver, commodities, real estate, c word, art, credit, etc.)? I know watch nerd does this and this seems to me to make a lot of sense. 1. Expecting 5.7%, planning for 3.8%. This is based on a rolling P/E ratio of the world. 2. Three reasons. One, just because something has a price that varies over time does not make it an "investment" for my purposes (my comic books would be an investment, otherwise). To be attractive to me, the asset has to produce some val...
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 01, 2024 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasonable expected return of equities
Replies: 38
Views: 4586

Re: Reasonable expected return of equities

watchnerd wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:00 am
Tamalak wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:16 am My two formulas for expected rate of return are:


Inverse world P/E + 10 year Treasury - 10 year TIPS (currently 5% + 3.9% - 1.8% = 7.1%)
This is the same thing as:

Inverse world P/E + 10 YR breakeven inflation rate
Yes - the formula is "real returns will be inverse P/E"
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasonable expected return of equities
Replies: 38
Views: 4586

Re: Reasonable expected return of equities

My two formulas for expected rate of return are:

10 year Treasury + 4% (currently 3.9% + 4% = 7.9%)

Inverse world P/E + 10 year Treasury - 10 year TIPS (currently 5% + 3.9% - 1.8% = 7.1%)

That's "best guess". For "safe withdrawal rate", I subtract expected inflation (10 year Treasury - 10 year TIPS = 2.1%) and cut the result by a third. So

(7.9 - 2.1) * 2/3 = 3.9%

(7.1 - 2.1) * 2/3 = 3.3%
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 31, 2024 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Role/Purpose Do Bonds Play in Your Portfolio
Replies: 55
Views: 5372

Re: What Role/Purpose Do Bonds Play in Your Portfolio

Bonds are less than 10% of my portfolio. I consider it my "inflation resilient cash pile". It's there so I have a couple years' buffer of expenses independent from the stock market. I can suspend or reduce withdrawals from my stocks a bit when they crumble.
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 29, 2024 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832950

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

It frustrates me that debates on international vs not always come down to "US is great" vs "watch out for performance chasing!" The discussion should be about how stocks, especially international stocks, have their prices set. To repost from another topic, to me the questions for international are: 1. Do price setters (bid/askers) of international stocks have sufficient incentive to price international stocks correctly, given expected future performance of the companies? 2a. If the answer to (1) is "yes" then why shouldn't international be bought like the rest of the haystack? 2b. If the answer to (1) is "no" then what are the corrupting factors and what parts of the global stock market do they affec...
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 29, 2024 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832950

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

It frustrates me that debates on international vs not always come down to "US is great" vs "watch out for performance chasing!" The discussion should be about how stocks, especially international stocks, have their prices set. To repost from another topic, to me the questions for international are: 1. Do price setters (bid/askers) of international stocks have sufficient incentive to price international stocks correctly, given expected future performance of the companies? 2a. If the answer to (1) is "yes" then why shouldn't international be bought like the rest of the haystack? 2b. If the answer to (1) is "no" then what are the corrupting factors and what parts of the global stock market do they affec...
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 29, 2024 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832950

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

It frustrates me that debates on international vs not always come down to "US is great" vs "watch out for performance chasing!" The discussion should be about how stocks, especially international stocks, have their prices set. To repost from another topic, to me the questions for international are: 1. Do price setters (bid/askers) of international stocks have sufficient incentive to price international stocks correctly, given expected future performance of the companies? 2a. If the answer to (1) is "yes" then why shouldn't international be bought like the rest of the haystack? 2b. If the answer to (1) is "no" then what are the corrupting factors and what parts of the global stock market do they affect...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Infinity withdrawal rate
Replies: 20
Views: 2770

Re: Infinity withdrawal rate

3% is a safe perpetual withdrawal rate. Even 4% has more than an 80% chance of working perpetually, I believe. Sharp exhale of breath ... There is no safe perpetual withdrawal rate. It totally depends upon future market performance and future interest rates. Monte Carlo models are based on past returns. Yet that's no guarantee of future returns. The closest you can get is 100% TIPS and then withdrawals at the real rate of interest. But that still gives you interest rate risk - which really showed up in 2022/23. Or simply a repeat of post 2008 : low inflation, low interest rates. So your reinvested coupons don't earn the same returns. Theoretically I suppose a portfolio of zero coupon TIPS stepped out to your maximum likely age (so probably...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How did you get over your fear of investing in the market?
Replies: 64
Views: 5021

Re: How did you get over your fear of investing in the market?

It's like asking how you get your sea legs.. you be at sea until you have them.

I didn't get over my fear of investing until I'd already been invested for a while and had some nice returns under my belt. Until that point, any dip in the market infuriated me!
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 26, 2024 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Infinity withdrawal rate
Replies: 20
Views: 2770

Re: Infinity withdrawal rate

3% is a safe perpetual withdrawal rate. Even 4% has more than an 80% chance of working perpetually, I believe.
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 25, 2024 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: VTBLX going forward?
Replies: 3
Views: 538

Re: VTBLX going forward?

TarHeel2002 wrote: Thu Jan 25, 2024 1:44 pm Should I make any VTBLX adjustments since it’s basically done nothing the last decade?
VTIAX.
I have some bad news about VTIAX :twisted:
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 24, 2024 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All into VITAX?
Replies: 16
Views: 3217

Re: All into VITAX?

Hope OP didn't take our advice :twisted:
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 24, 2024 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talking to older sibling about poor financial decisions
Replies: 12
Views: 1014

Re: Talking to older sibling about poor financial decisions

They could very well be right about the future of crypto (most likely by chance). What if you convince them to get out and it goes up 1000%?

Butt out.
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 23, 2024 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk
Replies: 22
Views: 6463

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk

Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 1:45 pm This calculator predicts death, imagine if it also predicted getting sick?

Point being, the healthy years are less than the charts would show here of being ‘alive’. Hmmmm.
Good point. Maybe displace the "death" curve left 10 years to get the "sick" wedge.

Or to see it, just pretend you're 10 years older than you are for all age inputs.

This tool may be a good antidote for "just one more year" and insanely conservative withdrawal rate plans.
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 23, 2024 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk
Replies: 22
Views: 6463

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk

Great tool. Two things I learned from it:

1. A 60 year retirement has almost exactly the same success as an infinite year retirement - because after 60 years you're either broke, or so rich that no realistic sequence of future returns are going to stop you.

2. A 4% withdrawal rate has about a 5 in 6 chance of working indefinitely.
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 22, 2024 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point of the accumulation process (DCA), do you hope the market goes up?
Replies: 24
Views: 1959

Re: At what point of the accumulation process (DCA), do you hope the market goes up (from a practical basis)?

There aren't two scenarios for market performance (up and down) but really four: Market goes up because of increased earnings expectations: This is GOOD for accumulators and GOOD for retirees Market goes up because of reduction in the discount rate: This is BAD for accumulators and GOOD for retirees Market goes down because of decreased earnings expectations: This is BAD for accumulators and BAD for retirees Market goes down because of increase in the discount rate: This is GOOD for accumulators and BAD for retirees This is why as an accumulator, I considered 2020 a bad year (scenario #2) and 2022 a good year (scenario #4). But even though I'm an accumulator and the market went up, 2021 was a good year (scenario #1). So the OP's question is...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 701

Re: Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bonds

There are lots of good bond funds, and vfsux is one of them. Why investment-grade, and why short-term? What did your advisor say about that and why this choice fits into your plan?

I guess since the cash is expected to last 3 years, the ~3 year duration of vfsux is appropriate. Investment-grade will give it a bit of a kick, but also a slight risk from market downturns. If you don't want that risk, and just want treasuries, consider vfirx instead. You'll lose about 0.62% yield, though.

Here is a chart of their performance. As you can see investment grade (red) gives more in the long run, but takes a bit of a hit from market downturns

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... gKWUmM9COD
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should Fixed Income be changed in 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 95
Views: 8893

Re: Is BND still the right 3rd fund in the Portfolio?

So many topics like this. 2022 was the worst year for bonds in 220 years. Lightning is not likely to strike twice, especially since bond prices are market driven, and the market is traumatized by this episode and likely to correct future behavior. If BND performs to your expectations in years OTHER than 2022 it should perform to your expectations in the future IMO. Oh yeah, and even in 2022, you only lost money on bonds purchased in the previous 3 years! It STILL looks likely that there won't be any 7-year (BND's duration) period where BND loses money. Where did you get data for the last 220 years? So 2022 was worse than the Volker years? This article goes over it. And yes, it was worse than the Volker years! https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/0...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should Fixed Income be changed in 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 95
Views: 8893

Re: Is BND still the right 3rd fund in the Portfolio?

So many topics like this. 2022 was the worst year for bonds in 220 years. Lightning is not likely to strike twice, especially since bond prices are market driven, and the market is traumatized by this episode and likely to correct future behavior. If BND performs to your expectations in years OTHER than 2022 it should perform to your expectations in the future IMO.

Oh yeah, and even in 2022, you only lost money on bonds purchased in the previous 3 years! It STILL looks likely that there won't be any 7-year (BND's duration) period where BND loses money.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?
Replies: 61
Views: 11883

Re: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?

This chart is often posted:

Image

Seems like it's only 80% likely to sustain a 4% withdrawal rate for 30 years and only 33% likely to maintain its real value over that period while being withdrawn from.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds for Diversification ?
Replies: 29
Views: 2323

Re: International Bonds for Diversification ?

Now, when you have hedged currency risk as opposed to unhedged currency risk in a bond fund, you’ve got a smaller problem, but it’s still a problem. And that’s when you take foreign sovereign bonds and hedge them back to the dollar—you’ve basically got U.S. bonds. This is so simple and devastating a point that it makes me facepalm that I never thought of it. The point of int'l diversification in bonds is in case something (major or minor) ever happens to US treasuries (or US sovereignty). But if something DOES happen to them, the dollar will be hit, and since the whole fund is currency hedged it will go down right along with the dollar. I'll have to sleep on it but this line may have convinced me to get out of BNDW. But this opens the ques...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does VTIAX international fund have half the ROE as VTSAX US fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 1022

Re: Why does VTIAX international fund have half the ROE as VTSAX US fund?

TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:46 am The ROE for Vanguard VUG (Growth ETF) is 33.6%. Does that mean you should skip the US total market and go all-in on US growth? Or does that mean that the rest of the total US market will be a perennial underperformer?
Market sentiment has got to be a factor in ROE then. I wish I knew how vanguard calculated it.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed from a cowardly investor
Replies: 22
Views: 2870

Re: Help needed from a cowardly investor

Agree with the previous few posters. You must invest your money - its potential work shouldn't go to waste. But bonds and money market are fine investments.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does VTIAX international fund have half the ROE as VTSAX US fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 1022

Re: Why does VTIAX international fund have half the ROE as VTSAX US fund?

I am looking to move more money into international. Right now I have about 20% of my stocks in international and am considering increasing that to 30 or 40%. I have avoided more exposure to international since in years past the performance just was not there. One reason I am considering more international is that they seem cheap compared to US. VTSAX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund has a PE 22.9 and VTIAX - Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund has a PE of 11.3. However, I also see that VTSAX has a ROE of 22.3% and VTIAX has an ROE of 12.3% Is there a clear reason why the international fund has an ROE equal to only about half of the US fund? Should this be a concern? Thanks. We'd all like to have it both ways: the same or ...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds for Diversification ?
Replies: 29
Views: 2323

Re: International Bonds for Diversification ?

I use BNDW for diversification. I don't consider international diversification nearly as important on the bond side as it is on the stock side, but I do it anyway, because who knows the future? Plus, BNDW has very similar historical performance to BND so why not?

The only issue is BNDW is a little more annoying to understand how it works. Since it's currency hedged, the month-by-month yield is very low, and then you get a messy payout at the end of the year. That makes it difficult to understand what the actual current yield is.
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wallet stolen at work. How to keep handbags/totes secure at work?
Replies: 29
Views: 3704

Re: Wallet stolen at work. How to keep handbags/totes secure at work?

If this perp was in the news, it seems like this was an exceptional one-time event rather than a persistent danger. Guard against overreaction.
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simple Investment Plan for Aunt's Inheritance
Replies: 10
Views: 1302

Re: Simple Investment Plan for Aunt's Inheritance

1. I would avoid becoming responsible for another person's investment decisions.
2. If for some reason I was anyway, I'd dump it all in a Vanguard Target Retirement fund (in your aunt's case, the target date should be in the past)
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to prove that I am not losing money with bond funds?
Replies: 118
Views: 14641

Re: How to prove that I am not losing money with bond funds?

It's technically possible for interest rates hikes to cause bond funds to lose money indefinitely, but the hikes would have to accelerate exponentially to keep ahead of the yield return.
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 17, 2024 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If You Willing To Tolerate More Risk For Higher Returns Which Tilt(s)?
Replies: 26
Views: 2418

Re: If You Willing To Tolerate More Risk For Higher Returns Which Tilt(s)?

Isn't small cap value supposed to be the higher risk, higher potential reward section of the market? There are arguments as to whether the small cap value premium is real and enduring, but the backtest certainly implies it.
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed from a cowardly investor
Replies: 22
Views: 2870

Re: Help needed from a cowardly investor

Beachbum KL wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2024 12:20 am So much fear to get started at current market high. Shiller PE of 32, 😱
It was also 32 in Oct 1997 - annualized returns have been 8% since then.
It was also 32 as recently as Jan 2018 - annualized returns have been 11% since then!
And both of those were market highs, as well.

The S&P has been able to make money even with very high valuations. Whether it will pull that off again from here remains to be seen, but just because CAPE 10 is 32 is not a reason to believe it's overvalued.
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lost - how to dig myself out
Replies: 24
Views: 2573

Re: Lost - how to dig myself out

goflyers13 wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:24 am
Tamalak wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:09 am I don't see a particular need to do anything. As much as I like index funds, the ER of individual stocks is 0.00%. Personally I'd let them ride and just put dividends and new contributions into indexes from here on out.
I agree with this to a point. We don't know how funds are distributed across companies/sectors. This may not be a great idea if you're heavily concentrated in a small number of companies or industries.
Good point - maybe instead of selling what he's got, the OP should tailor future contributions to round out his portfolio.

So if his existing stocks are concentrated in US growth, then he should buy US value and int'l index funds in the future until his portfolio is balanced. Then VT forevermore :twisted:
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lost - how to dig myself out
Replies: 24
Views: 2573

Re: Lost - how to dig myself out

I don't see a particular need to do anything. As much as I like index funds, the ER of individual stocks is 0.00%. Personally I'd let them ride and just put dividends and new contributions into indexes from here on out.

If you have a high income, you might consider selling stocks with unrealized losses for tax benefits.
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a proxy fund for a 60/40 portfolio? To illustrate market return
Replies: 9
Views: 1484

Re: What's a proxy fund for a 60/40 portfolio? To illustrate market return

toddthebod wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:19 am
Tamalak wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:17 am For stuff like this I love portfolio visualizer

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... VL7IIBF2aR

The above backtests 60/40 (US-only) for the past 30ish years. Blue line is the 60/40 portfolio, red is stocks only, yellow is bonds only for comparison.
Check out the asset allocation modeling instead of the portfolio modeling on that site.
Good idea, I keep forgetting about that side of it, has some helpful extra years :mrgreen:
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a proxy fund for a 60/40 portfolio? To illustrate market return
Replies: 9
Views: 1484

Re: What's a proxy fund for a 60/40 portfolio? To illustrate market return

For stuff like this I love portfolio visualizer

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... VL7IIBF2aR

The above backtests 60/40 (US-only) for the past 30ish years. Blue line is the 60/40 portfolio, red is stocks only, yellow is bonds only for comparison.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:15 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Searching for Lost Contributors
Replies: 537
Views: 138207

Re: Searching for Lost Contributors

Lbill, founder of the legendary "freefall" topic, suddenly went missing a decade ago!
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are Total Market Funds Like VTI The Gold Standard For Trading off Return/Risk/Efficiency?
Replies: 5
Views: 834

Re: Are Total Market Funds Like VTI The Gold Standard For Trading off Return/Risk/Efficiency?

I'll bet you VT (or really, VTI + VXUS at cap for lower ER and higher tax efficiency) is the peak of the cube.
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as part of inflation protection?
Replies: 23
Views: 2352

Re: Stocks as part of inflation protection?

Stocks are shares of a company. A company is composed - mostly - of things that appreciate in value with inflation in the long run. I consider stocks to be strong protection against inflation. Obviously inflation spikes are going to cause general havoc that hurt a company's bottom line, but I consider stocks to be more or less immune to smooth inflation.
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trading Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin ETFs) - Bogleheads forum policy remains unchanged
Replies: 47
Views: 7278

Re: Vanguard Not Allowing Bitcoin ETFs

That's pretty concerning. I'm not interested in investing in bitcoin, but I can see how someone could justify it. At what point will my investing philosophy direct me to buy something that Vanguard doesn't allow? And should I wait until that happens to move?
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replace Bonds With International Stocks?
Replies: 210
Views: 25061

Re: Replace Bonds With International Stocks?

Trying to wrap my head around what the incentive is for the constant sale of international funds. what do you mean by 'the constant sale'? The push of international funds. I hear it all the time on Bloomberg. I see it in investing articles like the one posted. Are advisors paid more to sell international funds to their clients? International stocks are historically cheap now so they look attractive to a lot of people (and advisors). It could end up being that they're cheap because their earnings will be junk, but I don't know that for sure. And I would prefer that advisors pick what they think will have good forward-looking results rather than chase recent performance. Foreign stocks are 40% of the stock market. Why WOULDN'T they be a freq...
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replace Bonds With International Stocks?
Replies: 210
Views: 25061

Re: Replace Bonds With International Stocks?

Int'l stocks already have bond-like returns, so why not :twisted:
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I Crazy? Every Account is SP500 Index
Replies: 61
Views: 10177

Re: Am I Crazy? Every Account is SP500 Index

100% stocks makes sense to me, as long as you have some kind of buffer if the market tanks and you get laid off at the same time (those events tend to be correlated..)

I personally would use VT, but it sounds like you've thought over what part of the market to focus on. Just do a thought experiment, what if international outperformed for the next few years? Would you performance chase or stick to your guns? If the latter, S&P500 is fine.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VIAAX vs VTIAX
Replies: 15
Views: 1526

Re: VIAAX vs VTIAX

the_wiki wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:59 pm One interesting note is that despite the name, VIAAX actually has significantly less income than VTIAX.
Except in 2021, when VIAAX had an insane distribution for some reason https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... GjNwzILut7
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VIAAX vs VTIAX
Replies: 15
Views: 1526

Re: VIAAX vs VTIAX

myartman wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:14 pm Other than VIAAX having 'only' 400 stocks and being 3x as concentrated in its top 10 holdings, what makes VTIAX preferred in terms of BH philosophy? Improved diversification? The blf that buying the 'total' market is more aligned and less risky?
Yep exactly, which is why I will continue to hold VTIAX and not even consider VIAAX.

I admit the backtest is unusual and intriguing. VIAAX has moved practically in lockstep with VTIAX, except it adds a couple of % return. No wild swings of outperformance or anything.
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Map?
Replies: 16
Views: 2568

Re: Tax Map?

I don't know what the term should be, but I need something like this. I have a brokerage account with index funds, some legacy individual stocks with high capital gains/losses, a 401(k) that I plan to do a Roth conversion in batches since I'm FIREing around 45, an HSA, and a Roth IRA! How am I supposed to figure out what tax hits to take in what order and magnitude when I take withdrawals? :|
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you make your first $1M?
Replies: 148
Views: 33651

Re: How did you make your first $1M?

Got a job (IT code monkey) paying ~100k after taxes, lived on ~50k, invested the rest. 12 years later that's a million.
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else's Vanguard rate of return way off?
Replies: 57
Views: 6237

Anyone else's Vanguard rate of return way off?

As of the end of November my rate of return was listed as around 8%. Now that it's updated for the end of December, it's listed at 17% :shock:

I've been investing all my income into the market since 2015. December was nice, but not this nice. Anyone else's RoR way off and do we know why and when it will be corrected?