Search found 6461 matches

by bob90245
Sun Mar 18, 2012 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your perferred method for valuing the market?
Replies: 16
Views: 1376

Re: What is your perferred method for valuing the market?

Supposedly, Bogle made some good timing calls. He'll be my preferred method.
by bob90245
Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if I'd gotten out of stocks in 1996 based on PE10?
Replies: 42
Views: 3460

Re: What if I'd gotten out of stocks in 1996 based on PE10?

I know in some parts of the galaxy, their world revolves around the S&P 500. Others choose to include other asset classes like small, value, REITs and international and an appropriate amount of fixed income. Then they ignore the noise of the market, rebalance as necessary, and stay the course.
by bob90245
Sat Mar 17, 2012 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle on value tilting/REIT/emerging markets
Replies: 23
Views: 2971

Re: Bogle on value tilting/REIT/emerging markets

Investors expecting value tilting/REIT/emerging markets to pay off year in and year out will be disappointed. This is strictly a long term strategy. Those who lack the neccesary patience should stick to total markets.
by bob90245
Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is 1926 used for most historic risk/return charts?
Replies: 28
Views: 3154

Re: Why is 1926 used for most historic risk/return charts?

In 1932, Alfred Cowles established the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics with the motto, "Science is Measurement." He also funded the Econometric Society's journal, Econometrica. The Commission moved to the University of Chicago in 1939 and later to Yale University in 1955, wher...
by bob90245
Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle on value tilting/REIT/emerging markets
Replies: 23
Views: 2971

Re: Bogle on value tilting/REIT/emerging markets

Because value tilt, REIT, and emerging market strategies were relatively new ideas at the time of the book's publication, Bogle viewed them as fads. So do we need another decade or two to switch the label from "fad" to established equity asset class?
by bob90245
Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns: Trade cars instead of saving and investing
Replies: 38
Views: 3342

Re: Scott Burns: Trade cars instead of saving and investing

Burns makes the mistake of recency bias. That is, assuming a recent trend (low CD rates) will continue in the future. But it only has to continue for one year for the savings on gas to be greater than yield on the CD. I see you compound Burns' mistake of recency bias with the all-too-common attribu...
by bob90245
Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns: Trade cars instead of saving and investing
Replies: 38
Views: 3342

Re: Scott Burns: Trade cars instead of saving and investing

Burns makes the mistake of recency bias. That is, assuming a recent trend (low CD rates) will continue in the future.
by bob90245
Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Caution Ahead; Wall Street's Latest Trends"
Replies: 8
Views: 1406

Re: "Caution Ahead; Wall Street's Latest Trends"

I like the Coffeehouse Portfolio. Bill Schultheis is a good guy.
by bob90245
Fri Mar 16, 2012 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Boglehead Investing Is Boring!
Replies: 46
Views: 2846

Re: Poll: Boglehead Investing Is Boring!

Boring? No way! I still see debates about the value premium. I still see debates about Bodie's all-TIPS strategy. I still see debates about what a prudent withdrawal rate from a retirement portfolio should be. I still see debates about what an age-appropriate equity-fixed split should be. I still se...
by bob90245
Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Happy Days are here again........(Observations)
Replies: 8
Views: 1354

Re: Happy Days are here again........(Observations)

Let's relearn the lesson about how stocks are priced. All information that is publicly available gets reflected in current prices. (Parenthetically, if someone had non-public information, it would be illegal to trade on it.) This means that if new information comes in that meets expectations, stock ...
by bob90245
Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?
Replies: 33
Views: 2111

Re: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?

Furthermore, there are no indicators that I am aware of that predicts how stocks will do in the short term like 12 months. So the reference above that stocks should do well in the next 12 months is merely a guess on something that is inherently not predictable. Other time frames that are not predic...
by bob90245
Wed Mar 14, 2012 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?
Replies: 33
Views: 2111

Re: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel and Scott Richard, a Wharton practice professor of finance, think the economy is showing signs of a true rebound and predict that stocks should do well in the next 12 months. But bonds, they warn, are in dangerous waters, and economic growth will be in jeopar...
by bob90245
Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu
Replies: 39
Views: 4808

Re: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu

My, some people are wee bit sensitive here. Maybe lines were crossed, but I don't think so. If you call someone's argument (his ideas) dumb, is that the same as calling that person a dumb person? In other words, a personal attack?
by bob90245
Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "U.S. Stocks Hit All-Time High !"
Replies: 26
Views: 3755

Re: U.S. Stocks Hit All-Time High if we ignore inflation

Unfortunately cumulative inflation has been about 9% since the Wilshire Index hit its all time high in the fall of 2007. So in real terms, which is what we eat, US stocks are still about 8% below their high recorded nearly five years ago. Four and one half years of negative 8% growth is little to c...
by bob90245
Tue Mar 13, 2012 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I love being 50/50
Replies: 42
Views: 4794

Re: Why I love being 50/50

Others might say that if you're checking the percentages up and down every day you're pay too much attention to what the stock market is doing.

On the other hand, there's a Zen-like calm you eventually feel when you become disinterested and truly embrace "I don't know and I don't care."
by bob90245
Tue Mar 13, 2012 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu
Replies: 39
Views: 4808

Re: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu

Kathy Kristof weighs in on the article referrenced by the opening poster. Still, it would be hard to find worse counsel for your long-term economic health than what Boston University management professor Zvi Bodie and financial consultant Rachelle Taqqu advised in Monday's Wall Street Journal. Sourc...
by bob90245
Tue Mar 13, 2012 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu
Replies: 39
Views: 4808

Re: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu

Nah, TIPS likely won't survive an economic collapse that ushers in a Great Depression. A better strategy if you are expecting a Great Depression scenario is a mountain cabin, gold coins, canned goods and guns and ammunition. Since the US outlawed private ownership of gold coins during the Great Dep...
by bob90245
Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Called the Market Bottom in 2009
Replies: 3
Views: 702

Re: Jack Bogle Called the Market Bottom in 2009

First of all the reporter is an idiot as he writes "Bogle dumped all his stocks for bonds". Which would mean he sold all his stocks and bought bonds when the market was low. You misread what was written. Here is the full excerpt: As our Acela stuttered its way into Union Station, Bogle co...
by bob90245
Mon Mar 12, 2012 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu
Replies: 39
Views: 4808

Re: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think-Bodie and Taqqu

Good discussion. As someone who follows the Bodie strategy, one point in its favor is what if we hit a Great Depression scenario, where stocks lose 75% of their value over a prolonged period. Note I actually mean the original Bodie strategy of TIP/LEAPs. cheers, Nah, TIPS likely won't survive an ec...
by bob90245
Mon Mar 12, 2012 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Smart People Fail to Beat the Market
Replies: 14
Views: 2298

Re: Why Smart People Fail to Beat the Market

staythecourse wrote:Not sure if this is a good place to say it, but I personally would appreciate it if you left a link to any new blog articles on bogleheads. Same goes for Mr. Swedroe.

Alternatively, you can visit the Wiki a few times a week and get everyone's latest blog articles as they become available:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/News_and_blogs
by bob90245
Mon Mar 12, 2012 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've done it again, Taylor and Mel and Michael !!!
Replies: 6
Views: 1195

Re: I've done it again, Taylor and Mel and Michael !!!

And don't forget to emphasize that for your young friends, their savings rate is more important than the rate that is earned on those savings. (Don't remember if that point was made in the book.)
by bob90245
Sun Mar 11, 2012 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: won the game - keep playing or quit?
Replies: 41
Views: 4792

Re: won the game - keep playing or quit?

Make it a poll and see how forum members vote.

My vote is to choose not to play the game when need to take risk is low to none.
by bob90245
Sun Mar 11, 2012 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High school student investment help
Replies: 10
Views: 1047

Re: High school student investment help

Here is how I would approach your project. First explain that investing in individual stocks is pure speculation. But that if it must be done, then simply try to be close to the US Stock Market Index. One such fund is Vanguard's VFINX. Then look up the top 10 holdings for VFINX which you can find he...
by bob90245
Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement portfolio withdrawal rate
Replies: 4
Views: 523

Re: Retirement portfolio withdrawal rate

The shorter the time frame the higher the withdrawal rate that can be used. Conversely, the longer the timeframe, the lower the withdrawal rate that can be used. This chart provides guidelines based on historical data. Click on image for full size. http://bobsfinancialwebsite.com/PrepareForRetiremen...
by bob90245
Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?
Replies: 51
Views: 4265

Re: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?

I would say highly unlikely unless all the following situations recur: ⋅ Only 10% margin requirements ⋅ Federal Reserve makes bonehead decisions (tightening monetary policy when loosening would be the correct decision) ⋅ No FDIC ⋅ No unemployment insurance &s...
by bob90245
Wed Mar 07, 2012 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?
Replies: 51
Views: 4265

Re: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?

Now unless you think there are more companies like Enron and Worldcom out there committing fraud that we don't know about yet ... MF global et al. etc. MF Global wasn't the first hedge fund to blow up. And it won't be the last. I put the odds we'll see a major hedge fund hitting the dust as 100% du...
by bob90245
Wed Mar 07, 2012 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?
Replies: 51
Views: 4265

Re: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?

You can create conditions under which you might be able to imagine a huge loss such as: Lack of proper regulation No uptick rule No Glass-Steagall Act A great loss of transparency Ethical behavior which ultimately creates higher systematic risk ...and we have all these right now. The lack of transp...
by bob90245
Wed Mar 07, 2012 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?
Replies: 51
Views: 4265

Re: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?

I would say highly unlikely unless all the following situations recur: ⋅ Only 10% margin requirements ⋅ Federal Reserve makes bonehead decisions (tightening monetary policy when loosening would be the correct decision) ⋅ No FDIC ⋅ No unemployment insurance &sd...
by bob90245
Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market for talks on investing
Replies: 7
Views: 862

Re: Market for talks on investing

I think you have it backwards. All the smart people know its better to go to the free seminars that come with a meal.
by bob90245
Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone in touch with gummy? (Peter Ponzo)
Replies: 5
Views: 1968

Re: Anyone in touch with gummy? (Peter Ponzo)

I don't keep in touch with Gummy. But I bet lots of people at this site do:

http://www.financialwebring.org/index.php
by bob90245
Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: tactical asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 1568

Re: tactical asset allocation

Interestingly enough, GMWAX, Grantham's asset allocation fund, continues to outperform and do quite well according to the Morningstar article. Maybe it's not tactical allocation that's the problem - maybe it's the person doing the allocating. With enough active managers in the game, it's a certaint...
by bob90245
Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 3852

Re: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ

This is a simple calculation. I assume a person can come up with the raw numbers. Let's assume the following: Retire today at age 65 Assume retirement lasting 30 years. Social security provides $12,000 annual inflation-adjusted income Base retirement needs are $40,000 annually and adjust with infla...
by bob90245
Mon Mar 05, 2012 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 3852

Re: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ

Okay, the place where one's safety zone ends and the risky one begins is a "risk set point." Maybe I just missed it in the WSJ article (and I haven't read Bodie's book) but I'm still not clear on how the risk set point is determined. This is a simple calculation. I assume a person can com...
by bob90245
Mon Mar 05, 2012 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My “Aha!” Moment in Investing
Replies: 94
Views: 10102

Re: My “Aha!” Moment in Investing

I have given several of Jack Bogles books to friends and family and suprisingly it has yet to illicit an 'Aha moment'. In fact in most instances I doubt if the books was even opened or read. They have no interest.... Anyway, I wonder if one has to be "pre-disposed' to a 'Aha moment' that Rick ...
by bob90245
Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My “Aha!” Moment in Investing
Replies: 94
Views: 10102

Re: My “Aha!” Moment in Investing

After reading Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street in late 2000, early 2001. Made me realize my stock picking success was likely due to luck than to my brilliant skill.
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No stocks for Stockman?
Replies: 29
Views: 2945

Re: No stocks?

Re: No stocks?

The guy is rich. Bogleheads would agree he doesn't need to take stock market risk.

If you've already won the game, you can choose not to play.
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 10009

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

It's OK to make your own point if it all relates. However, It is not OK to take my words out of context. Hint: In this particular quote, I was not talking about Lump Sum. It is because of the possibility of the stock market going down at some point down the road that they have higher expected return...
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 10009

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

Coming up with all these scenarios about why or how DCA is better is a really silly argument. The only way DCA is better is if the stock market goes down. And of course, every one knows the stock market never goes down. If you know ahead of time that the stock market is going down, then why are you...
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 3852

Re: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ

bob90245 wrote. Bogle speaks to obvious truths. Your willingness to take stock market risk is dependent on how you will react during a severe bear market . It's being prepared for those possible consequences. No that is not what Jack Bogle meant. Here is the more complete quote from the NYTimes art...
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 10009

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

The referenced post posited a specific scenario and showed that the final results between LS and DCA were wide apart, contrary to my assertion that the differences between LS and DCA were minimal. The flaw in the referenced post is that compared the results of one specific scenario when the real is...
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 3852

Re: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ

The article points out that whether or not you are a amateur investor risk tolerance is of secondary importance in portfolio asset allocation. Here's how pkcrafter put it earlier in this thread. I have been saying for a long time on the forum that willingness to take risk (emotional risk tolerance)...
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 3852

Re: Determine Your Risk Set Point - WSJ

The article tries to discredit the Boglehead approach to investing by surveying random amateurs about their risk tolerance or the percentage of their current salary they'll need during retirement. This only points out what we already know: amateurs are poor investors. The author (who didn't bother t...
by bob90245
Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 10009

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

I would add that, except for extreme cases (e.g. DCA over a period of years) the differences are minimal and not really important . OK, so let's ignore the extreme case of DCA over a period of years. Rather, let's use the case of DCA over 12 months versus lump sum at the beginning of the period. Th...
by bob90245
Sat Mar 03, 2012 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of dividends on equity returns
Replies: 3
Views: 431

Re: Impact of dividends on equity returns

So even when the equities are "down" we're still collecting dividend. This helps me to not worry as much about market fluctuations with equities, as I'm still getting a return even when the market is "down". Total return is what matters no matter the asset class. This table is f...
by bob90245
Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 10009

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

i've heard elsewhere on this site that bogleheads would not dollar cost average (dca) a lump sum into an asset class. in fact, someone said that if you have to dca then your allocation for that class is too large. i don't understand the theory behind this. The theory is that when you examine histor...
by bob90245
Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not be a real Boglehead
Replies: 69
Views: 5742

Re: Why not be a real Boglehead

Then again, I feel that the '08 crisis showed us that correlation among all nations is on the rise (or maybe that's just a feeling). Key word in bold is "crisis". You should expect under global crisis, correction among the world's equities will approach one. In other word's, all stock mar...
by bob90245
Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not be a real Boglehead
Replies: 69
Views: 5742

Re: Why not be a real Boglehead

I just love the idea of keeping it that simple, but it seems many don't. I for one am not as sophisticated with the slice, dicing and all the other charts and confusing lingo that I see floating around and will simply use the Vanguard Total Stock Market and Vanguard Total Bond Market with close to ...
by bob90245
Fri Mar 02, 2012 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10164

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

I agree with Bob90245 that the "ok to take lots of risk under 40" idea is questionable. Just to clarify. I don't have an issue with what investment vehicles people in their 20's or 30's use. I merely thought Bodie's thinking became quite muddled when he imagines these same young people in...
by bob90245
Thu Mar 01, 2012 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10164

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

Then you either haven't completely read or understood the words from Bodie's excerpt. Hint: I put them in bold.

We cannot continue further if you are going to put forward your own interpretation.
by bob90245
Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10164

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

Hi bob90245, It seems clear to me. It's difficult for me to discern where your confusion lies. Zvi is saying there are lots of reasons investors can take on considerable investment risk before they are 40, but after 40 they need to begin planning for retirement as accurately as they can, and they n...