Search found 6461 matches

by bob90245
Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

This BobK's opinion, which is different [1] from Zvi Bodie: Yes, until you are about 40 years old you can invest about any way you want , because what is important thru the first 15 years or so of investing is how much you save, not how you invest it. [1] I am willing to be corrected with specific ...
by bob90245
Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

This BobK's opinion, which is different [1] from Zvi Bodie: Yes, until you are about 40 years old you can invest about any way you want , because what is important thru the first 15 years or so of investing is how much you save, not how you invest it. [1] I am willing to be corrected with specific s...
by bob90245
Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A Rant, a lot of Emotion, and a bottom
Replies: 13
Views: 2039

Re: A Rant, a lot of Emotion, and a bottom

Echoing other posters...

Yes, three years later we have the benefit of perfect 20-20 hindsight.

If different (negative) outcomes occurred, we might be living in a much different world today . You just never know, really.

Maybe there is something to the power of prayer. :wink:
by bob90245
Thu Mar 01, 2012 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

The point that market timer makes that "Actual dollar amounts matter in this analysis." is extremely important. However, what Bodie even admits in his book, young investors 20 or more years away from retirement have only the haziest idea of what actual dollar amounts they will eventually ...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

Sorry, but this is false:

Beagler wrote:(For those who maintain his investment philosophy is not extraordinarily TIPS-centric.)

When it comes to choosing investment vehicles for base retirement needs, Bodie emphasizes "safety first" which is TIPS-centric.
by bob90245
Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

Sorry, but I sincerely doubt BobK was referring to dollar amount. Huge losse increasing over time would be like 10% loss, then 20% loss, then 40% loss, then 60% loss, then 80% loss. And don't rule out 90% loss because it happened after the 1929 stock market crash. That's what BobK meant. That doesn...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

So why would any sane person hold stocks knowing that eventually, if they hold them long enough, they will experience an 80 or 90 percent loss. I think the Bodie POV is saying that if you have a safety net in place with SS/TIP/Annuities, then go ahead and place any extra funds in stocks for the pot...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 29, 2012 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

... but what also increases with time is the possibility of having a huge loss by holding stocks. So why would any sane person hold stocks over the long term if the possibility having a huge loss by holding stocks increases with time? Stock "losses" are always transient and always get fix...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough
Replies: 126
Views: 10168

Re: "It probably won't happen" isn't good enough

... but what also increases with time is the possibility of having a huge loss by holding stocks. So why would any sane person hold stocks over the long term if the possibility having a huge loss by holding stocks increases with time? What you are saying is that all the Boglehead authors who recomm...
by bob90245
Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Article in Money Magazine
Replies: 32
Views: 4000

Re: Boglehead Article in Money Magazine

Barry Barnitz wrote:Hi:

This post will provide net reactions to the Money article as they appear:

    [link removed by Mod]


regards,

What a rambling mish-mash... :roll:
by bob90245
Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 21
Views: 1570

Re: Annuities

My concern is something referred to as "sequence of returns". Suppose on the day you retire you have a miilion dollars, 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds. If the market does well for a few years, you continue to get nice income/returns and life is good. That million actually continues to gro...
by bob90245
Fri Feb 24, 2012 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does fiduciary duty apply here?
Replies: 16
Views: 690

Re: Does fiduciary duty apply here?

The following statement was included in a recent email I received from what I'll intentionally describe rather obscurely as a financial services firm. As a CFA and Series 7, 63, and 24 Registered Securities Representative, [CEO's name] has a fiduciary standard to our customers. From which of those ...
by bob90245
Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low risk, high return ideas?
Replies: 31
Views: 2342

Re: Low risk, high return ideas?

Invest in your health. Quit smoking. Not everyone can be George Burns. Think again. Long life is really bad for your retirement funds. If poor health today has you paying more medical bills (than if you were in good health today), then you might not have much savings left to contribute to your reti...
by bob90245
Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low risk, high return ideas?
Replies: 31
Views: 2342

Re: Low risk, high return ideas?

Invest in your health. Quit smoking. Not everyone can be George Burns.
by bob90245
Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFP's (Advisor's) walk the talk
Replies: 11
Views: 1193

Re: CFP's (Advisor's) walk the talk

Finally, the last several weeks we have talked about how Advisors (CFP's) manage their own finances. To a man they all said that every Advisor they know is in debt, mortgaged to the tilt, and do not invest their money anywhere close to how they want their clients invested. Do people on this Forum a...
by bob90245
Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]
Replies: 49
Views: 5175

Re: OK, I gotta ask...

With the world on the verge of going into the crapper (political unrest and upheaval in the Mideast, Portugal and Greece being taken out behind the woodshed by Germany for not behaving, the Strait of Hormuz now under a more watchful eye than in the past, and the US enjoying what I'd certainly call ...
by bob90245
Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CFP says 100% stock, wonders where "age in bonds" comes from
Replies: 85
Views: 5957

Re: CFP says 100% stock, wonders where "age in bonds" comes

No, you're all wrong. Well, according to Zvi Bodie. Your base retirement needs must not be put at risk in the stock market but should be matched with US inflation-adjusted bonds. Anything above that can be put at risk, if you so wish.
by bob90245
Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Axiomatic
Replies: 30
Views: 1916

Re: It's Axiomatic

Rather than looking for Greens and Reds, many Bogleheads use a rebalance table that tells them whether any asset class holding is outside their respective bands. Usually no action is taken because the holdings remain within their bands. Only when a holding exceeds its upper band or falls below its l...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Axiomatic
Replies: 30
Views: 1916

Re: It's Axiomatic

I didn't catch the top, but I sure as heck didn't catch the bottom! Why are you trying to "catch" anything? Why not invest for the long-term with a sensible asset allocation based on your needs? Rick Ferri Are you kidding? That would be so boring! Only a Boglehead would think that investi...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor's get it wrong again
Replies: 25
Views: 2500

Re: Investor's get it wrong again

And that means not just buying and holding -- but buying, holding and rebalancing as required. Rebalancing forces you to buy the assets that have done relatively poorly (at lower prices) and sell those that have done relatively well (at higher prices). My wife and I find ourselves heavily invested ...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor's get it wrong again
Replies: 25
Views: 2500

Re: Investor's get it wrong again

Does anyone really need to be told that a 9% run-up in equities over the past two months is unsustainable? I mean, I checked my Vanguard account, and I just about barfed when I went to "compare to year-end" or whatever it's called. The stock market moves unpredictably both up and down. So...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor's get it wrong again
Replies: 25
Views: 2500

Re: Investor's get it wrong again

if it's so obvious that 'investors' (I assume we mean average retail investors) always get it wrong, why isn't there money to be made on the opposite side of the trade? Instead of 'buy hold rebalance' why isn't the best course "overrebalance" or "tactical reallocation" or "...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your "Second favorite" financial site?
Replies: 41
Views: 4618

Re: What is your "Second favorite" financial site?

Home to financial bloggers Allan Roth, Larry Swedroe and Steve Vernon:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162- ... esAreaMain
by bob90245
Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Now at or near a multi year high
Replies: 6
Views: 768

Re: Investing Now at or near a multi year high

Not enough information to provide a useful answer. I suggest you read the sticky post that offers guidelines for asking portfolio questions. Then provide the necessary detail so that experienced members can offer a helpful reply.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212
by bob90245
Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow breaks 13,000!
Replies: 37
Views: 2990

Re: Dow breaks 13,000!

Should corporate earnings continue rising, stock prices will reflect that. I guess, as long as you mean that rising corporate earnings does not always reflect in higher equity prices. RM I would agree with your statement. To use an old AM radio analogy [1], corporate earnings are the "signal&q...
by bob90245
Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow breaks 13,000!
Replies: 37
Views: 2990

Re: Dow breaks 13,000!

Should corporate earnings continue rising, stock prices will reflect that.
by bob90245
Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: historical SWR's
Replies: 6
Views: 499

Re: historical SWR's

You may enjoy reading Wade Pfau's blog on the Bengen / Trinity studies m m These were done about 15 to 18 years ago, so I think your neighbor is exhibiting some selective selection of memories. And the answer is No, FIRECalc would not have said 6% was 95% successful because the bad years are in the...
by bob90245
Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does international matter A LOT
Replies: 30
Views: 2033

Re: Does international matter A LOT

Does it matter A LOT. Meaning that yes, I might give up some gain and have less risk (or maybe more risk). I can't tell you what the future will hold. But we can observe how various portfolios of multi-asset-classes performed in the past. Focus you gaze on A (LCB, aka S&P 500), D (EAFE) and AD ...
by bob90245
Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Did You Do When The Market Was Down?"
Replies: 46
Views: 3291

Re: "What Did You Do When The Market Was Down?"

By constrast, go ahead and stress test your portfolio imagining stocks are down 50%. That's the better risk set point you should sitting at now and going forward. What I meant to convey was that just imagining isn't enough. If someone asks people what they would do if stocks are down 50%, they may ...
by bob90245
Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Did You Do When The Market Was Down?"
Replies: 46
Views: 3291

Re: "What Did You Do When The Market Was Down?"

The article has the right intentions. If experiencing the jitters when stocks are down 19%, that is a signal to dial down the stock allocation. But you might consider going even lower in your stock allocation because down 19% is really normal and happens often enough. By constrast, go ahead and stre...
by bob90245
Sun Feb 19, 2012 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you value a pension?
Replies: 24
Views: 2877

Re: How do you value a pension?

archbish99 wrote:Get a quote for a single-premium annuity with the same terms as the pension (starting date, survivorship benefits, inflation protection, etc.). That will give you a very accurate ballpark for the current value of the pension.

That was going to be my second answer!
by bob90245
Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you value a pension?
Replies: 24
Views: 2877

Re: How do you value a pension?

A pension has value because it reduces the income needed to be generated from your retirement assets. Let's call that "income reduction". How much is that? Then multiply that by a number like 25 (as in, safe withdrawal rate of4%). That's how much your pension is worth. If you didn't have t...
by bob90245
Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Required Min Distribution: What do BH"s do with it?
Replies: 25
Views: 1533

Re: Required Min Distribution: What do BH"s do with it?

dual wrote:What is a BH??

Probably a Boglehead. But you never know. Could be anything from Beverly Hills to a Bond Holder to a Butt Head to a Blackhawk Helicopter. [1]




[1] http://www.acronymfinder.com/BH.html (doesn't list "Boglehead", so it's probably not that. :P )
by bob90245
Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Required Min Distribution: What do BH"s do with it?
Replies: 25
Views: 1533

Re: Required Min Distribution: What do BH"s do with it?

Put the RMD proceeds to where it is needed. If this year's spending bucket needs filling, put it there. Else, if the bond bucket needs filling, put it there. Else, put it in the stock bucket.
by bob90245
Sat Feb 18, 2012 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ever notice the best investors are ones who don't talk ...
Replies: 17
Views: 3064

Re: Ever notice the best investors are ones who don't talk .

There's already a thread on this forum talking about this subject. But here is the study you can read that comes courtesy of Larry's blog:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162- ... ncol;lst;4
by bob90245
Sat Feb 18, 2012 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great anti-timing argument that I can't find again
Replies: 6
Views: 859

Re: Great anti-timing argument that I can't find again

Those who look to time the market don't usually make these arbitrary mid-year bets. Rather, they typically look to valuation metrics like equity risk premium and P/E10. If you've been around this forum a while, you will recognize those previous P/E10 discussions. I performed my own analysis that you...
by bob90245
Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can you sum-up your investing philosophy in 10 words?"
Replies: 120
Views: 8473

Re: "Can you sum-up your investing philosophy in 10 words?"

Borrowing some words from the article:

Expect many bull and bear markets in your lifetime. Therefore, spend less and diversify globally.


(Ok, so that's more than 10 words. :wink: )
by bob90245
Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New American Dream is renting to get rich - Reuters
Replies: 162
Views: 11837

Re: New American Dream is renting to get rich - Reuters

Location, location, location. And where I live, renting beats owning. Then again, it's an apples-to-oranges comparison because you when you go to owning a property, you're almost always trading up in order to improve your lifestyle. Otherwise, why go through all the bother and added expenses that pr...
by bob90245
Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment porn exposed
Replies: 22
Views: 3127

Re: investment porn exposed

Doesn anyone else get the irony? The financial media is a great, if unintentional, source of entertainment -- provided you know how to assess the welter of facts, half-truths, bald-faced lies, and scurrilous rumors continuously circulating in that world. Needing, as ever, to hold investors' attentio...
by bob90245
Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Personal Mentor
Replies: 32
Views: 2243

Re: Your Personal Mentor

My parents taught by example living below your means. I'd likely be in different financial shape if I was raised in a typical American family that lives paycheck-to-paycheck and holds credit card balances month-to-month.
by bob90245
Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money?
Replies: 36
Views: 2540

Re: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money

But I think the main point is valid, that the economy and the stock markets are not the same; recessions and bear markets are not at the same time, making it hard to time even if you know the precise dates of a recession ahead of time. That said, I think if I knew that a recession was imminent I wo...
by bob90245
Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Active Funds are beating index funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1483

Re: WSJ - Active Funds are beating index funds

They're bragging about the returns for one month? You have to take what you can get! Can you blame these financial publications? Saying just buy index funds would not only be boring, but would be bad for their business model. (i.e. never bite the hand that feeds you. In this case, advertising dolla...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money?
Replies: 36
Views: 2540

Re: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money

Your explanation describing short term market movements is similar to what the academics have termed "random walk". This explanation dates back decades.
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money?
Replies: 36
Views: 2540

Re: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money

I’d ask is the most basic question: Do equity markets always go down during a recession. The answer may be surprising. Data Source Actually, not surprising. Yes, equity markets always go down during a recession. But before the recession is over, equity markets start the next bull market anticipatin...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes
Replies: 3
Views: 537

Re: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It m

Overconfidence in one's abilities to beat their benchmark index is one of the mistakes investors are apt to make. A similar Buffett quote:

Paradoxically, when "dumb" money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb.
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much money do I need in retirement?
Replies: 143
Views: 20582

Re: How much money do I need in retirement?

Now, one could always hope that adding stocks to the mix increases the SWR. But that's just a plan based on "hope." I was always told 'hope' is not a plan. Which is what Zvi Bodie says. Just make sure you have saved more in bonds (or work longer) since you won't have much if any expected ...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much money do I need in retirement?
Replies: 143
Views: 20582

Re: How much money do I need in retirement?

Edit to add:

GRT2BOUTDOORS wrote:Do you think you can pay all your expenses with 44,000? If yes, then you can retire.
If not, you may need to either save more, earn more, downsize or work longer.
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money?
Replies: 36
Views: 2540

Re: If I can accurately predict recessions, can I make money

I’d ask is the most basic question: Do equity markets always go down during a recession. The answer may be surprising. Data Source Actually, not surprising. Yes, equity markets always go down during a recession. But before the recession is over, equity markets start the next bull market anticipatin...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does diversification mean never having to say you're sorry?
Replies: 8
Views: 856

Re: Does diversification mean never having to say you're sor

Some people use bonds, not as "diversifiers", but as low volatility instruments to dampen overall portfolio risk. In this case rather than usings "bonds" per se, I choose short term government securities, stable value funds and 5-year CDs. Thus, my exposure to bond NAV fluctuatio...
by bob90245
Wed Feb 15, 2012 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For the time constarined, do you find this site efficient?
Replies: 18
Views: 1197

Re: For the time constarined, do you find this site efficien

Many people have made great effort to make this forum efficient. When you are ready to ask for portfolio help, there is a sticky thread that guides you to the detailed information you need to post to have others help you. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212 This makes it eff...