Search found 1918 matches

by Ketawa
Sun Sep 02, 2012 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Lump Sum vs DCA study
Replies: 47
Views: 8124

Re: Vanguard Lump Sum vs DCA study

Some interesting points: All of the academic research on LS vs DCA, including this one on my site by Bill Jones: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/997/dca.htm does show that LS dominates most of the time. That's because nearly all of this work is predicated on the post-1926 Ibbotson/CRSP database...
by Ketawa
Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why has an ounce of gold bought a suit?
Replies: 47
Views: 5975

Re: why has an ounce of gold bought a suit?

Obviously this statement doesn't really mean much. To indulge the question, the total supply of gold in the world increases at 2-3% per year due to mining, not sure of the exact number. When the world used a gold standard, this is how fast the supply of money would grow, and consequently inflation. ...
by Ketawa
Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Int SV
Replies: 15
Views: 2139

Re: Int SV

A combination of a small-cap fund and a value fund would get you close. Personally I think VSS is great for small-cap -- it has about the same size and value loadings as SCZ, includes emerging markets, is cheaper, and is a Vanguard fund. SCZ only covers EAFE. Unfortunately, you're limited in interna...
by Ketawa
Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market vs TIPS
Replies: 34
Views: 11060

Re: Total Bond Market vs TIPS

My understanding is that there are two main components to interest rates: expected real return, and expected inflation. Disregarding the difference in duration: The funds would respond about the same to changes in expected real rates. If expected inflation stays the same, similar performance. If exp...
by Ketawa
Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Deathwatch--Three Vanguard ETFs on the List
Replies: 31
Views: 9744

Re: ETF Deathwatch--Three Vanguard ETFs on the List

Out of curiosity I looked at the share class breakdown of the extra S&P index funds, didn't bother with the Russell funds. It turns out that for the 500 Value, 500 Growth, 600 Value, and 600 Growth funds, all of their assets are in the ETF share class and there are none in the institutional shares. ...
by Ketawa
Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP for a young person in her 20's
Replies: 13
Views: 2010

Re: TSP for a young person in her 20's

I can't find a current yield for the F fund, but Total Bond Market, which tracks the same index, has a 1.85% yield before expenses, which would be 1.83% after expenses. The current yield on the G fund appears to be about 1.4%. 1.25%. Sorry, but that's really bad. That's close to two-year CD territo...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Loan to Pay Off Rental Mortgage?
Replies: 8
Views: 1734

Re: TSP Loan to Pay Off Rental Mortgage?

I don't think you're missing anything. It's a great deal as long as you don't foresee any possibility that you will lose your job and be forced to pay back the loan immediately, or have difficulty paying it back if you lose the rental income. You could also consider the PenFed Home Equity Loan if yo...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cost vs. Slice and Dice Tradeoff
Replies: 27
Views: 1717

Re: Cost vs. Slice and Dice Tradeoff

There isn't much of a cost issue when you consider that the Net ER of Total Stock Market (VTI) is 6 bp, while Vanguard Small-Cap Value (VBR) is 10 bp. See: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Acquired_fund_fees_and_expenses . Some of the expense ratio is a "phantom" expense ratio that does not represent ...
by Ketawa
Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't mean reversion easily visible in this chart?
Replies: 38
Views: 6670

Re: Why isn't mean reversion easily visible in this chart?

Wow, that's a very serious allegation, that could surely affect the careers of the authors. Which point in the paper did you disagree with? Here's another paper finding again that momentum disappeared about the time it was added to the three factor model: The Disappearance of Momentum From the abst...
by Ketawa
Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Easy calculator for determining early payoff of mortgage?
Replies: 9
Views: 2148

Re: Easy calculator for determining early payoff of mortgage

The Mortgage Professor has a calculator for almost anything mortgage-related at his web site. See calculator 2a. http://www.mtgprofessor.com/calculators.htm
by Ketawa
Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF spreads widen without Knight Capital
Replies: 13
Views: 2741

Re: ETF spreads widen without Knight Capital

The spread right now on VSS is about 2%. Is that higher than normal? I think you're just calculating it incorrectly. The spread right now is $0.19 for an $83 share, or 23 bp. This is below the average that Vanguard gives here of 29 bp. https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/investment...
by Ketawa
Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is why you diversify
Replies: 173
Views: 17464

Re: THIS is why you diversify

Bongleur wrote:>if you google "Robert T"'s personal resource page

Need more precise name to succeed.
Here's the thread. Robert T's Collective thoughts
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I have to buy a house?
Replies: 53
Views: 6877

Re: Do I have to buy a house?

What I am declaring is that I do not know what the effect is of interest rates in a complex system like the housing market. My attempts at some very basic statistical analysis were merely to shed some daylight on various claims. Perhaps the Fed wants to keep rates low to increase turnover in the hou...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I have to buy a house?
Replies: 53
Views: 6877

Re: Do I have to buy a house?

I'm sorry; you're right. Artificially low interest rates are not stimulative to house prices and when the Fed is done creating this unprecedented interest rate environment it most assuredly will have no effect on home prices. Is this really your position? That Greenspan's unprecedented lowering of ...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I have to buy a house?
Replies: 53
Views: 6877

Re: Do I have to buy a house?

I see an obvious relationship between interest rates being held artificially low after 1999 and the ridiculous run up in prices we experienced. It's in the very chart you posted. Even further, most of the data in the chart you posted is not relevant. It occurred while we were on the gold standard a...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I have to buy a house?
Replies: 53
Views: 6877

Re: Do I have to buy a house?

I do not live in DC but I do think that it is a great time to buy - low interest rates, depressed market. I agree with the poster that cited historical home appreciation and think that people are too hung up on the most recent past. In my lifetime, home ownership has been a good thing and has helpe...
by Ketawa
Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sending dividends and CG to Money Market
Replies: 11
Views: 1274

Re: Sending dividends and CG to Money Market

Just keep in mind that if you TLH in a taxable account, reinvested dividends in an IRA may trigger a wash sale.
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 18, 2012 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switching from iPhone to Android: some questions
Replies: 19
Views: 2657

Re: Switching from iPhone to Android: some questions

The best way, by far, I have found to sync iTunes with Android phones is using the iSyncr app. It's well worth $3 for the app, and for an extra $1 you can purchase an add-on that allows you to sync over WiFi. It's easy to sync unplayed podcasts and any other playlist from iTunes automatically. Used ...
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do Bogleheads buy nice suits?
Replies: 87
Views: 9960

Re: Do Bogleheads buy nice suits?

For a decent half-canvassed suit, I've heard that Suit Supply (full price) or Brooks Brothers 1818 line (on sale) are both good options. I've been doing some research as I'm thinking about picking up my first suit sometime soon.
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 07, 2012 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP G Fund: YTD yield 0.79%
Replies: 38
Views: 6123

Re: TSP G Fund: YTD yield 0.79%

I'll be sticking with 100% G Fund, probably forever. It really is the only free lunch in investing. You get the yield and credit quality of Intermediate Treasuries with none of the interest rate risk. Of course, F Fund has looked good because of declining rates. But when (if?) rates rise, it'll take...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on Taxation of Capital Loss Carryover
Replies: 4
Views: 592

Re: Question on Taxation of Capital Loss Carryover

I think you misunderstood what I meant; I just wanted to compare doing nothing vs realizing $1500 in LTCG. My carryover losses are wiped out first by the LTCG, and since these reduce my taxes at a rate of 15%, I am "paying" 15% tax on my first $1500 in LTCG (or STCG, for that matter). I can only ben...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on Taxation of Capital Loss Carryover
Replies: 4
Views: 592

Re: Question on Taxation of Capital Loss Carryover

Ah, ok thanks, I think I was just having some trouble walking through the forms. After simulating both, it turns out that $1500 STCG and $2500 LTCG incurs the same amount of tax as $4000 LTCG. I also calculated the tax owed for the last 3 situations. For number 2, the additional $1500 in LTCG is eff...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on Taxation of Capital Loss Carryover
Replies: 4
Views: 592

Question on Taxation of Capital Loss Carryover

I couldn't find the answer to my specific question in the forums, and I had trouble decoding Schedule D and the Capital Gain Tax Worksheet. My marginal tax bracket is 15 Federal/0% State. I have $1500 in short-term capital loss carryovers, and I have some space to use up at the 15% bracket this year...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Old School Debate: Putting 100% in index funds is foolish
Replies: 26
Views: 2860

Re: Old School Debate: Putting 100% in index funds is foolis

There is no free lunch because index funds have unique sources of error (tracking error, reliance on market makers, reliance on over saturation of speculator) that cause it to have a minor associated cost. This is not a problem. All you have to do is compare how an index fund performs relative to i...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Cash Back Credit Card?
Replies: 56
Views: 646419

Re: Best Cash Back Credit Card?

Try out NerdWallet; you can input your spending patterns and preferences, and it will determine which cards might be best for you.
by Ketawa
Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old Question-Paying Off Mortgage?
Replies: 18
Views: 1744

Re: Old Question-Paying Off Mortgage?

Something strange is going on with your numbers -- paying off your mortgage is a guaranteed return of 5.375% minus an appropriate amount for interest rate tax deduction if you itemize. I am skeptical that you are benefiting from the full deduction, but it is not a 7.7% return, it is 5.375% or less. ...
by Ketawa
Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pacific ETF (VPL) vs Pacific Admiral Index (VPADX)
Replies: 8
Views: 1063

Re: Pacific ETF (VPL) vs Pacific Admiral Index (VPADX)

Your time periods are different so you're not comparing apples to apples. Try going to the Morningstar page for VPADX, use the Growth of $10k Chart, and add VPL to it.
by Ketawa
Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortgage
Replies: 7
Views: 977

Re: Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortga

A few more costs to factor in. I didn't see the real estate agents commission and other selling costs subtracted out when you eventually sell the condo when you move. When you want to sell the condo you will likely need to paint it and put new carpets in. If you have to leave the condo empty for si...
by Ketawa
Sun Jun 17, 2012 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortgage
Replies: 7
Views: 977

Re: Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortga

The savings is 8-9k annually, or about 33k over 4 years. Main inputs into NYT calculator are: Monthly rent: 1,700 Home price: 300,000 Down payment: 8% Mortgage rate: 2.75% Property taxes: 1% Annual home price change: 3% Annual rent increase: 3% In advanced settings change: Rate of return on investme...
by Ketawa
Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Income Question
Replies: 4
Views: 663

Re: Fixed Income Question

Larry Swedroe had a good post about California muni bonds a couple of weeks ago. Recommendations come at the end. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57446280/why-you-shouldnt-buy-california-go-bonds/ In short, a national muni fund is probably the correct choice (if munis make sense for you). As ...
by Ketawa
Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortgage
Replies: 7
Views: 977

Re: Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortga

What is your goal? Are you just trying to game the BAH? Are you thinking that the BAH money is coming back to you in equity versus going straight to a landlord? Why are you locking all your extra cash (BAH) into a property you are holding short term? My goal is to make the decision that makes the m...
by Ketawa
Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortgage
Replies: 7
Views: 977

Critique my rent vs. buy decision and analysis of mortgage

Sorry I originally posted this in the wrong forum. I was wondering if I could get some advice on 1) a rent vs. buy decision, and 2) a type of mortgage and how to pay it down. First some background: I am active duty military 25 years old at time of move Would be at next duty station for at least 4 ye...
by Ketawa
Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Vs. Roth 401(k)
Replies: 37
Views: 2509

Re: 401(k) Vs. Roth 401(k)

Here's a good breakdown by tfb. Traditional is typically better since there's a good chance you can get a 0% tax rate on the gains by filling up your lower tax brackets later in life or performing Roth conversions.

http://thefinancebuff.com/case-against-roth-401k.html
by Ketawa
Sat Jun 09, 2012 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Indexes are a mess
Replies: 57
Views: 8047

Re: Vanguard Indexes are a mess

I had a hard time justifying Russell 2000 Value (IWN/VTWV) and S&P SC 600 Value (IJS/VIOV) over MSCI SCV Index (VBR). Looking at the Morningstar growth chart for over 10 years, a $10k initial investment has only about $250 difference. http://i46.tinypic.com/2zje0ef.jpg In the end I decided to just s...
by Ketawa
Mon Jun 04, 2012 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?
Replies: 504
Views: 109032

Re: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?

I'll be so bold and raise my hand to state paying your mortgage off right now is a foolish idea. Primary Reasons: - Too much NW into one asset (that's illiquid to boot!) - Your primary residence is not an investment ... I find it very interesting Bogleheads are all about asset allocation, yet many ...
by Ketawa
Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Viability of a Constant U.S./International Split
Replies: 32
Views: 2068

Re: Viability of a Constant U.S./International Split

I'm going nuts: Vanguard has a web page with some kind of title like "statistics" that, among other things, lists the current U. S./International percentage split for the FTSE Total Global index, and thus is a handy reference to the current percentage--or would be if I could find it. But I can't! A...
by Ketawa
Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small caps as a separate country
Replies: 16
Views: 1351

Re: Small caps as a separate country

Just a little more data. Small cap index funds are broadly diversified, while the examples of countries with "similar profiles" have <1% the number of holdings and about 10x the market cap. VB: Vanguard Small Cap ETF # of Holdings: 1746 Avg Market Cap: $1.3 billion VSS: Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US...
by Ketawa
Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do 'tax managed' funds make sense?
Replies: 12
Views: 1293

Re: When do 'tax managed' funds make sense?

My guess is that there is a small advantage for the three-fund portfolio, but the advantage is not worth the complexity issues if you are holding a market weight. If you have started with Total International, stick with it; if you already have Tax-Managed International, or if you have to slice and ...
by Ketawa
Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do 'tax managed' funds make sense?
Replies: 12
Views: 1293

Re: When do 'tax managed' funds make sense?

They aren't much, but to me they are a guaranteed annual advantage and just add a couple of lines to the spreadsheet. That bid/ask spread over 30+ years becomes nothing, and VXUS has a fairly large spread itself. At any rate, since I already overweight VWO and VSS, it made sense to me to hold VEA in...
by Ketawa
Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do 'tax managed' funds make sense?
Replies: 12
Views: 1293

Re: When do 'tax managed' funds make sense?

I was running some numbers myself to decide this and concluded that if one was comfortable slicing and dicing and could accept some small tracking error, it would be always be more efficient to hold separate Tax-Managed Intl (VEA), Emerging Markets (VWO), and Intl Small-Cap (VSS) than merely the bro...
by Ketawa
Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do short-term goals affect fund placement? (put bonds where)
Replies: 8
Views: 823

Re: Do short-term goals affect fund placement? (put bonds wh

You seem to have the right idea, I would just review this entry from the Wiki and take note of the fine points (make sure your gains will be LTCG).

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Placing_ ... ed_Account
by Ketawa
Mon Apr 09, 2012 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: can you capture the small premium
Replies: 154
Views: 8175

Re: can you capture the small premium

Good call! If I asked nicely would you be willing to provide us with the same kind of analysis on small stocks today? Calculating a future small premium would be based on the relative valuation between the two today, what a reasonable projection of future growth for each would be, and what a sensib...
by Ketawa
Thu Apr 05, 2012 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [POLL] If you gamble, what do/did you play?
Replies: 42
Views: 2885

Re: [POLL] If you gamble, what do/did you play?

I've only played blackjack with basic strategy and card counting. With the right rules, you can get the odds barely in your favor, especially if you can do things like surrender. Even then it's a high variance and low return. Really just did it for the entertainment, and that entertainment was expen...
by Ketawa
Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: shoe sizes
Replies: 5
Views: 811

Re: shoe sizes

The simplest thing to do is order multiple sizes from Zappos, then return the shoes that don't fit. Free shipping in both directions.
by Ketawa
Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on Roth TSP in April Newsletter
Replies: 13
Views: 1626

Update on Roth TSP in April Newsletter

The April 2012 TSP newsletter has some more information about how the Roth TSP will work. https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/high12b.pdf Of greatest interest to me was that participants will not be able to have different allocations between the pre-tax and post-tax accounts. I know this starts to get...
by Ketawa
Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Poll:Tax-Privileged vs. Taxable: Which has more?
Replies: 57
Views: 2939

Re: Poll:Tax-Privileged vs. Taxable: Which has more?

57/43 advantaged/taxable. 24 years old, only have so much in taxable since I didn't know any better for so long.
by Ketawa
Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using "Specific Identification" tax method at Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 1211

Re: Using "Specific Identification" tax method at Vanguard

It was my understanding that to sell noncovered shares using Spec ID, you just needed to keep your own cost basis records. This was my impression from the thread where a Vanguard rep answered questions about the new policies. I do this using a spreadsheet that can account for share splits, mutual fu...
by Ketawa
Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you value a pension?
Replies: 24
Views: 3124

Re: How do you value a pension?

I used the TSP Annuity calculator here to figure out how much a pension/annuity is worth. You can compare level payments vs. inflation-indexed payments, different starting ages, single/joint. The inflation increase is capped at 3% per year, so this may slightly undervalue a pension that has full COL...
by Ketawa
Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Military Investing: Roth TSP strategy?
Replies: 14
Views: 2100

Re: Military Investing: Roth TSP strategy?

I'd recommend taking a look at these two articles: http://thefinancebuff.com/roth-401k-for-people-who-contribute-max.html http://thefinancebuff.com/case-against-roth-401k.html Personally, I'm going to contribute enough to Traditional to bring me down to the 15% tax bracket, then put the rest in Roth...
by Ketawa
Wed Feb 15, 2012 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SV and Reit Tilters Only Please
Replies: 60
Views: 4487

Re: SV and Reit Tilters Only Please

SCV: 30% of domestic stocks, 15% of overall portfolio. Split between ~20% (i.e. 10% of total) in RZV and ~10% (i.e. 5% of total) in VBR. I put new money towards VBR and buy/sell RZV when it hits my "bands" within SCV to minimize commissions. REIT: 10% of equities, 8% of overall portfolio. The rest o...