Search found 1912 matches

by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k
Replies: 21
Views: 2036

Re: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k

I'm in the 33-35% bracket and my accountant has been telling me to do Roth 401k. I guess this is why. That TFB link with an Excel sheet of Roth vs traditional was very helpful as well. Based on that, I created my own spreadsheet, and it seems clear that for those who max out their 401k, it's better...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k
Replies: 21
Views: 2036

Re: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k

I'm in the 33-35% bracket and my accountant has been telling me to do Roth 401k. I guess this is why. That TFB link with an Excel sheet of Roth vs traditional was very helpful as well. Based on that, I created my own spreadsheet, and it seems clear that for those who max out their 401k, it's better...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

VTSAX is not a "bubble fund". It represents the total stock market, by definition, and includes both growth and value stocks at their appropriate market weight. First off. The choice of the USA is clearly exclusionary. Something like VTWSX or an MSCI World Index would be "stocks". Picking VTSAX is ...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Yeah you definitely showed a lot of examples of TSM doing better in a period of high inflation. We are talking about a strategy designed to perform well against inflation risk. You compare it during a period of essentially no inflation to a bubble fund and it underperforms barely. Brilliant argumen...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 10630

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

For some reason there are a lot of posts about REIT valuations, current status and market behavior, etc., but the article is about longer-term historical behavior. Current valuations and the market timing angle (much less market efficiency given current interest rates) have little to do with observ...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Is there a fund that follows this strategy for those of us who don't want to pick individual stocks? QDF SCHD DLN, DEW, DGRW -- meant to be GARP. OFDIX -- high ER but is the fund described in that long article DJD Just google "quality dividend". The desire for companies that aren't at insane multip...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

In your example both A and B trade at intrinsic value the entire time. In which case, yes the return is equal. Other tangential topics may deserve consideration, but the main point of this thread was conceded here. Yeah, seriously. If only we knew which companies would pay a 10% dividend in perpetu...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Because otherwise, all you have done is show that investments with better returns are better. No kidding! I understand exactly what your examples demonstrate, and I am not confused about them. As you have admitted, A made a better investment than B. This is because the investment had a better retur...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

I think you aren't understanding here. When A reinvests his $6730 the assets he is buying cost $50 each and yield $10. That's a 20% returning asset. He gets that 20% regardless of what happens to price. Changes in price after that only allow him to compound faster (further falls) or allow him to se...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

A has a total return of -7.6% (1 - 1.1 * 0.6 * 1.4). B has a total return of -20.1% (1 - 1.1 * 0.55 * 1.32, and obviously the stock price was also 79.86). You are computing the return geometrically. You can either: a) compute arithmetic returns in which case volatility is harmful b) compute geometr...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Let's let this run for a 20 cycles in the 1::1 ratio. You'll see it is exactly what you arguing for that it doesn't matter: Investor A has 673 shares at $100 each throwing off $6730 in dividends Investor B has 100 shares at $673 each throwing off $6730 in intrinsic value growth Now let the share pr...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20309

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

I kept the example above. This time what we are going to do is have A's intrinsic price stay flat during the bear and B's increase by 10% per. Note this stock is yielding 40% (as per the example of the high dividend above). So this is a very high yield world in the original example. In keeping with...
by Ketawa
Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 203
Views: 39537

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62

I know we are not supposed to speculate on future legislative changes but I cannot help but see an elephant in this thread. 1) About 59 million people collect Social Security benefits each month, and they account for about one in six people in the United States 2) There are 76.4 million baby boomer...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it still worth buying a house in a state with insane property taxes
Replies: 106
Views: 12643

Re: Is it still worth buying a house in a state with insane property taxes

It's not like landlords are providing a charity and paying property taxes for you out of the goodness of their hearts. You are paying property taxes whether you rent or own. When you own the house, at least you get a line item bill that you can take as a tax deduction. Yes but if you get an apartme...
by Ketawa
Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 3215

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

...Buuut... If the amount of the TSP loan exactly replaces the amount being held in the TSP G Fund it is irrelevant what the balanced portfolio of the TSP earns. Technically the "loan" balance is no longer invested, but its overall effect on the TSP account is exactly the same as if it had remained...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 3215

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

There are many ways to look at this. Here is one: A TSP "loan" is not really a "loan" but rather a redemption of that amount under the tax favored umbrella. On balance, it seems to me, that a balanced portfolio in the TSP could be "expected" over the long run to earn more than 6.80% (no guarantees)...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 3215

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and in my opinion, your opinion is what is completely incorrect. Take someone has a TSP with $80K in equities and $20K in the G Fund. They take a $20K TSP loan which will be at the exact same interest rate as the G Fund. At the same time they re-balance 100% in...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off loan or not
Replies: 10
Views: 1274

Re: Paying off loan or not

What you didn't account for is that once you pay off the 10 year loan, you could start saving that entire payment. 20 year loan $1050 monthly payment for 20 years -> no debt save $550 for 20 years -> calculate FV 10 year loan $1600 monthly payment for 10 years -> no debt save $1600 for 10 years -> c...
by Ketawa
Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 3215

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

Just a few comments on TSP loans. In my opinion, a TSP loan is a useful tool if you max your TSP contributions every year. If you do not max out your contributions every year, then a better alternative would be to lower your TSP contributions temporarily and pay back the student loans ahead of sched...
by Ketawa
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 5187

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

I have the ability for either ROTH 401k or Traditional 401k in my work plan. I aim to max it every year, and usually break it down to roughly $15k Traditional, and $3k ROTH ($18k total). My thought is I get the tax savings off the 15k Traditional pre-tax, but I've also got roughly $3k per year grow...
by Ketawa
Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator
Replies: 2
Views: 685

Re: Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator

I don't know my retirement points off the top of my head to get an accurate assessment of the calculator's results, but I'll more then likely be staying with the current retirement system as I intend to stay in for at least 20 years. For service members who won't be staying in for at least 20 years...
by Ketawa
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator
Replies: 2
Views: 685

Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator

DoD recently released its official calculator for comparing the new military Blended Retirement System (BRS) to the legacy High-3 system. It's available here: BRS Comparison Calculator . After messing around with it a little, I have a few criticisms. 1. The Overview tab (the default first result scr...
by Ketawa
Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions Regarding VA Mortgage (0 down) Strategy
Replies: 3
Views: 539

Re: Questions Regarding VA Mortgage (0 down) Strategy

1) Wouldn't putting 0 down put me at a disadvantage because my interest rate would be higher? In my (limited) experience, the interest rate for a VA loan does not increase with a lower down payment. Banks don't take on more risk by accepting a lower down payment, since the VA guarantees the loan. H...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???
Replies: 73
Views: 7419

Re: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???

Banks and credit unions are offering a product and you are a consumer of that product. Do you also seek out nonprofit providers for everything you consume? Why don't food co-ops dominate over chain grocery stores? Why doesn't Linux dominate over Microsoft or Apple operating systems? If you do the r...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 20020

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Doesn't paying off your mortgage reduce sequence of returns risk by lowering your monthly expenses so you can live with lower returns from your investments? The blog post in the OP raised the possibility of keeping a mortgage while still early in investing, not during retirement. Sequence of return...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 20020

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

If you are married and both work, you likely have around 47k of tax advantaged space every year, 98% of people don't save that much, and those that do, probably don't have much debt anyway. People able to save that much every year probably have the most debt because they can afford more expensive h...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 20020

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

warowits, << Clearly it's equities or pay down debt. >> Why is that the only way? It could be borrowed at 3.25% and invested in Wellington (65/35) fund and earned 6+% in the process. It does not have to be 100/0 or 0/100. There are multiple options between 0/100 to 100/0. KlangFool I would argue th...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???
Replies: 73
Views: 7419

Re: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???

Banks and credit unions are offering a product and you are a consumer of that product. Do you also seek out nonprofit providers for everything you consume?

Why don't food co-ops dominate over chain grocery stores?

Why doesn't Linux dominate over Microsoft or Apple operating systems?
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which is better? [Adjust AA yearly or every 6 months]
Replies: 13
Views: 1867

Re: Which is better? [Adjust AA yearly or every 6 months]

If given the option and you have the time, is it better or even advisable to adjust AA in the three fund portfolio once a year or every six months? It doesn't make much of a difference. Do whatever is more convenient for you. It's best to have rebalancing targets built into your investment plan. St...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 20020

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Is there advice on how to reduce sequence of return risk for someone who is already early retired and has already paid off the mortgage? This does seem situation specific. Is there some tool that would allow one to look at this for their own particular circumstances? You misread the blog post if yo...
by Ketawa
Fri May 26, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 10091

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

I couldn't help but think that selling $108.11 in shares would incur trading costs, bid/ask spread and commission. So maybe collecting a dividend isn't so bad. $100 was only an example for illustrative purposes, and there are obviously no trading costs, bid/ask spread, or commissions with something...
by Ketawa
Fri May 26, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 10091

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

IMO dividends are among the dumbest investment things in the 21st century. They are an 1817 concept still hurting us in 2017 (yes, I am always in max tax bracket, so every year at tax time I shake my fist at stupid dividends) :annoyed Remember that qualified dividends, at least in the United States...
by Ketawa
Thu May 25, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 10091

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

Contributing to the monster... But nevertheless, having to sell your stake in a company to get your share of the earnings is not the same as controlling the earnings while maintaining your ownership. For people that need cash ongoing from their investments, say retirees, it seems like they can benef...
by Ketawa
Tue May 23, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Invest Church Money
Replies: 54
Views: 6192

Re: How to Invest Church Money

This reminds me of a thread on Investing Condominium Funds. It's not the same situation, but similar. My opinion: absolutely nothing other than CDs, Treasuries, or savings accounts.
by Ketawa
Tue May 23, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Present value of COLA pension
Replies: 21
Views: 2710

Re: Present value of COLA pension

The original posts say "55% survivor benefit". We need the original poster (or someone familiar with military pensions) to say whether this means Pension drops to 55% when either annuitant dies or Pension drops to 55% only if primary annuitant dies first. I.e., if secondary annuitant (spouse) dies ...
by Ketawa
Sun May 21, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 42
Views: 6725

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

I do think that the "Tell Tale Chart" speech has been debunked but Bogle makes a pretty powerful "real life" argument. The type of investing that Academia recommends was really not actionable as the investment vehicles needed to efficiently factor invest did not exist until recent years. Indeed, if...
by Ketawa
Sat May 20, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary
Replies: 63
Views: 7185

Re: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary

Delaying SS (for a single person) is like buying an inflation-adjusted SPIA with the following payout each year. This is for people born 1960 or later. Wait 5 years before FRA to 4 years before FRA 7.1% Wait 4 years before FRA to 3 years before FRA 6.7% Wait 5 years before FRA to 2 years before FRA ...
by Ketawa
Thu May 18, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual house maintenance costs
Replies: 30
Views: 3542

Re: Annual house maintenance costs

I own a condo almost 110 years old and individual maintenance costs have been <$1000, or <0.4%, per year on average. Almost all the maintenance has been exclusively for my HVAC system. Condo fees (~1.4% of value per year) take care of the rest of the building maintenance, as well as insurance and so...
by Ketawa
Wed May 17, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what is the catch with this 5% APY checking acct?
Replies: 6
Views: 1966

Re: what is the catch with this 5% APY checking acct?

The catch with any of these things is that they sometimes end or become limited. I have had Mango, Union Plus, NetSpend, and Santander checking accounts earning at least 5% FDIC insured over the last 4 years. At one time, I had $25K in various accounts. Now I only have 5 NetSpend accounts limited to...
by Ketawa
Mon May 15, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Market Only Compensates Non Diversifiable Risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1908

Re: The Market Only Compensates Non Diversifiable Risk

No. The Captial Asset Pricing Model tells us that equities are rewarded as follows: Return = (Market Return-Risk-free Return)*Beta +Risk-free Return. So if you were investing in solely TSM, you get the Market Return because the Beta is one. Investing in other factors pulls us away from this model, ...
by Ketawa
Fri May 12, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old posts regarding VT (VTWSX) and VXUS (VTIAX)
Replies: 2
Views: 779

Re: Old posts regarding VT (VTWSX) and VXUS (VTIAX)

You are overthinking this. If you want 75/25 domestic/international, just hold 75% VTI and 25% VXUS instead of making a strange mixture of funds by holding 50% VTI and 50% VT. You wrote a lot but really didn't give a good reason for preferring the second option. VEU does not have any small caps, whi...
by Ketawa
Sun May 07, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morgan Stanley drops Vanguard funds
Replies: 26
Views: 8474

Re: Morgan Stanley drops Vanguard funds

FWIW, I'm not sure the story about people being able to buy AQR funds with a $5M minimum has the full picture. The funds are often listed as $5M or whatever minimum at most brokerages, but they also are transparently available for low minimums at Fidelity in an IRA. That also used to be true at Scot...
by Ketawa
Wed May 03, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?
Replies: 57
Views: 5243

Re: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?

I have done the math, but if you'd like an example. the interest at 4% on a 5 year $50k loan will cost over $5k total. At a 25% tax rate that's over $1k in taxes paid. Now, for many people that's chump change. For me, I'm not a fan of throwing away a thousand bucks or more, that would be something ...
by Ketawa
Wed May 03, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?
Replies: 57
Views: 5243

Re: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?

Part of the repayment is double taxed, even taking into account the "net zero tax effect on the principal", you understand that right? I find it to be a negative, so I responded to the thread discussing negatives of 401k loans. It was as simple as that. To me, it's "steep". To you it may be fairly ...
by Ketawa
Wed May 03, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?
Replies: 57
Views: 5243

Re: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?

I understand exactly how you, and many others, are looking at it. In the "common" scenario used for a loan, the "net" tax difference is $0 on the principal of the loan (though there are scenarios where that isn't true, like what if instead of spending that money I decided to not take the loan and p...
by Ketawa
Wed May 03, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?
Replies: 57
Views: 5243

Re: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?

To illustrate that 401k loan interest isn't actually interest, consider a Roth 401k with a 100% loan interest rate payable in one year. Would you take a $50K loan and repay $100K in one year, while simultaneously lowering your bond allocation? Absolutely not. You did not somehow find a loophole that...
by Ketawa
Wed May 03, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?
Replies: 57
Views: 5243

Re: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?

Maybe one way to negate the possible loss of some growth in your 401k plan whilst you have a loan is to "borrow" from your bond holding IF you have one in the 401k. You will earn your interest via the interest you are paying on the loan, possibly/probably a higher interest rate than your bonds woul...
by Ketawa
Wed May 03, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?
Replies: 57
Views: 5243

Re: Is 401k loan really a bad idea?

It is true that you do not pay tax on the funds withdrawn when you take the loan from the 401k. However, to the extent of the "interest paid" on the 401K loan, you are using already taxed funds from your paycheck and putting that in your 401K plan. In the future when funds are withdrawn from the 40...
by Ketawa
Tue May 02, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 11548

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

It appears there are periodic reviews of the Lifecycle fund allocations. Here is the latest analysis. https://www.frtib.gov/pdf/minutes/MM-2016Nov-Att6.pdf After reading this, I hope the TSP isn't paying Mercer very much for their analysis. The fact that TSP is using projections of inflation, econo...
by Ketawa
Tue May 02, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?
Replies: 140
Views: 11548

Re: TSP Lifecycle Funds/G Fund Too Conservative?

They are absolutely related to an efficient frontier calculation. So, you are saying that Mercer's efficient frontier calculation for the 2050 fund can tell the difference between the C/S ratio goes from 3.1 to 4.0 over the 2020 to 2050 time frame versus a constant ratio of 3.5? And that they can t...