Search found 201 matches

by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Anyone here or so you know others not going out as much such as to lunch, dinner, other events? We're not leaving the house unless it is absolutely necessary. I am not going out except for groceries or to take a hike in a quiet park. My company has gone 100% WFH (work from home). All work travel is...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Corsair wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:02 pm
FED to the rescue, yay. Pumping $500 BILLION
Unfortunately, the Fed can't print masks, breathing machines, and vaccines, so this mini rally won't last.
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Given that there were two possible scenarios: 1. COVID-19 would be contained and I would have missed out on some returns, but I would live in a world without a pandemic that was spreading, so it would be easy to make more money. 2. COVID-19 would not be contained and I would live in a world with a ...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

my supposedly high-grade muni bonds are getting hammered and I'm not amused Indeed. fund or individual bonds? fund, yeah net asset prices get hit. individual bonds, why worry, you get everything back at maturity, unless they default of course. Because sometimes you get it wrong, and an individual b...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Given that there were two possible scenarios: 1. COVID-19 would be contained and I would have missed out on some returns, but I would live in a world without a pandemic that was spreading, so it would be easy to make more money. 2. COVID-19 would not be contained and I would live in a world with a ...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

...Low end estimates are 480,000 deaths. https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-could-kill-480000-americans-leaked-documents-reveal/ Lets put that in perspective a little. World population is ~7.7 Billion. If life expectancy is 70 years, daily deaths are expected to be 7,700,000,000/(365x70) = 301,369. Le...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It's interesting to see this sudden market downfall, I suspect there will be further pain down the road, and I would expect we'll hit 1800 at some point. Also, most people expect some huge V shaped world economic recovery, who knows. Yea, 1957-58 pandemic was 6 months down, 6 months up. Basically a...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It's interesting to see this sudden market downfall, I suspect there will be further pain down the road, and I would expect we'll hit 1800 at some point. Also, most people expect some huge V shaped world economic recovery, who knows. Yea, 1957-58 pandemic was 6 months down, 6 months up. Basically a...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

They expect hundreds of thousands of deaths in this country and major disruptions to everyday life. Do you have a source for this extreme claim? Or did you mean hundreds of thousands of infected people? Low end estimates are 480,000 deaths. https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-could-kill-480000-american...
by Patzer
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Remember folks, this thread will be revisited for decades to come as people revisit what the covid19 crash was like. Don't be one of the people who flinched, be one of the people who held STRONG :P. Set an example for future bogleheads. Well in that case... Future people.. Look at the Coronavirus a...
by Patzer
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3726
Views: 268146

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The fed doesn't make between-meeting emergency rate cuts for bad flu seasons or when people get worried about MERS, SARS ect. or due to excessive media hype about something. They are also not prone to overreaction and hysteria. They make emergency rate cuts for things like 9-11 attacks, Lehman Brot...
by Patzer
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

50 point rate cut and we are down again 1 hour later.
by Patzer
Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 36915

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

What I don’t get is why people would not buy the dip. From a long term perspective, they will be better off than not buying the dip, whether they buy in at 5, 10, or 20%. It is only dangerous if you’re not prepared (mentally or financially) to wait out a prolonged drop in the market. FWIW, I bought...
by Patzer
Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 36915

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

What I don’t get is why people would not buy the dip. From a long term perspective, they will be better off than not buying the dip, whether they buy in at 5, 10, or 20%. It is only dangerous if you’re not prepared (mentally or financially) to wait out a prolonged drop in the market. FWIW, I bought...
by Patzer
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 36915

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

What I don’t get is why people would not buy the dip. From a long term perspective, they will be better off than not buying the dip, whether they buy in at 5, 10, or 20%. It is only dangerous if you’re not prepared (mentally or financially) to wait out a prolonged drop in the market. FWIW, I bought...
by Patzer
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Emergency Fund to 6% to Invest
Replies: 53
Views: 3290

Re: Reducing Emergency Fund to 6% to Invest

Emergency funds are for emergencies. We are 1 week into a crisis breaking into mainstream news. Seems like a bad time to rush to action. Stocks are not on sale. There is a reason the price went down and it is because projected future earnings went down and projected risk went up. Even if you insist ...
by Patzer
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 36915

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Just to give an numerical example, suppose a stock had $1 in earnings in 2019 and was expected to grow earnings at 3% per year forever: 1, 1.03, 1.06, 1.09, 1.13... With a discount rate of 10%, the price would be about $14.70, i.e. P/E=14.7 Now suppose that because of COVID-19 earnings are zero in ...
by Patzer
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 36915

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Not really enough data to try to call the bottom yet.
I think it will be 30-50% below the all time high, but I will play along and pick an exact number.

S&P 500: 1849.47 (45.5% below the current all time high)
by Patzer
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3726
Views: 268146

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I agree. Here are things that can drive further declines: 1 or more reported us deaths A celebrity or top govt official (us or intl) dying of the disease An exponential rise in us cases, or cluster of cases Spread to the east coast near nyc or dc Mass cancellation of us sporting events or schools N...
by Patzer
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are Not on Sale
Replies: 30
Views: 3675

Re: Stocks are Not on Sale

Will stocks values rise again? Almost certainly. But are stocks on sale? Absolutely not. So stocks will cost more in the future than they do today. But they aren't on sale. Okay. A Ford F150 will cost more in the future, that doesn't make it on sale today. The notion that stocks are on sale or not ...
by Patzer
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are Not on Sale
Replies: 30
Views: 3675

Re: Stocks are Not on Sale

Ur whole arguement is build on dal stock? Individual airline stock? if people were buying vtsax in January, then buying vtsax today is great sale price. This is sale. No, my whole theory is not based on DAL. That is one example. I clearly said, if you do that for all stocks in the S&P 500, and aver...
by Patzer
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are Not on Sale
Replies: 30
Views: 3675

Stocks are Not on Sale

Many people on this forum talk about the efficient market and how we can just buy indexes, because the market will efficiently price stocks, and therefore there is no need for us to pick winners and losers. Without an efficient market, some stocks would be trading at 10x their value and others at 1/...
by Patzer
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Not Buy the Dip?
Replies: 11
Views: 1495

Re: Why Not Buy the Dip?

As a result of the market drawdown, my portfolio is now 68% equities, 32% bonds (target: 70/30). I have a long (30+ years) horizon. Why not shift to 80/20 today? I wouldn't be trying to "time" the bottom. I would just be shifting to equities after a 10%+ market loss and would plan to shift back to ...
by Patzer
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3726
Views: 268146

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Yup, I went from 90/10 to 84/16 and feel a lot better, and this is after hovering in the 100/0-90/10 range since 2010. Just curious how a 6% equity reduction is going to make a notable difference? The reduction in equities won't significantly lower my losses, but having 16% Cash (MMF) vs 10% Cash (...
by Patzer
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3726
Views: 268146

Re: Coronavirus and the market

yes, this is predictable that it will get worse. I would rebalance to a lower risk tolerance if your risk tolerance has changed. That's not how risk tolerance works. One's risk tolerance doesn't change because the market went down. You may now be aware that you had no idea what your risk tolerance ...
by Patzer
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3726
Views: 268146

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I consistently wrestle within myself between my Boglehead-Side and my Nassim Taleb/Black Swan/Worry About Small Risks With Decimating Impacts-Side. Right now, Taleb is winning. I'm willing to trade some returns for safety, all the while hoping that I'm being stupid. Yup, I went from 90/10 to 84/16 ...
by Patzer
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3726
Views: 268146

Re: Coronavirus and the market

It just doesn’t make sense. The spanish flu wiped out millions and had literally no impact on stocks. This market is totally irrational. Information travels differently in 2020 than in 1918, and our society is very different. People will be flying less, taking less cruises, eating out less, going t...
by Patzer
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23256

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide... The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far... You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun... You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic. COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out o...
by Patzer
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23256

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So...
by Patzer
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far. Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyo...
by Patzer
Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

i wonder if this is a black swan vs just a crash. perhaps it is better to pull back now rather than wait. Pandemics are far from a black swan. It's baked into the pie, along with viruses and bacteria. It's not baked into the pie. People are bad at estimating the impact of rare events. There is a st...
by Patzer
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

i wonder if this is a black swan vs just a crash. perhaps it is better to pull back now rather than wait. Pandemics are far from a black swan. It's baked into the pie, along with viruses and bacteria. It's not baked into the pie. People are bad at estimating the impact of rare events. Over the last...
by Patzer
Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund - why not VTSAX?
Replies: 52
Views: 5239

Re: Emergency Fund - why not VSTAX?

I don't think it is okay to hold your emergency fund in stocks. Even if you hold 2x you are putting yourself in a situation when you have to sell stocks when the market is at it's bottom . Assets are assets. Why would it be better to remove assets from a savings account rather than a stock index fu...
by Patzer
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund - why not VTSAX?
Replies: 52
Views: 5239

Re: Emergency Fund - why not VSTAX?

I don't think it is okay to hold your emergency fund in stocks. Even if you hold 2x you are putting yourself in a situation when you have to sell stocks when the market is at it's bottom.
by Patzer
Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you carry your passport with you during international travel?
Replies: 110
Views: 10789

Re: Do you carry your passport with you during international travel?

I carry my passport card on me (land and sea entry only) and leave my passport in the hotel safe.

I like having them in separate places.

The card is only $20 extra when ordering your passport.
by Patzer
Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond bubble
Replies: 22
Views: 2169

Re: Bond bubble

Rates are low by historical standards. They may go lower, or they may go higher. The economy may have changed such that low bond yields are the future because rampant inflation is no longer a worry due to issues like transparent pricing etc. No one knows. Interesting. I am by no means and expert, b...
by Patzer
Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1567

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

#Cruncher wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:29 pm
If I use 2.4% instead of 4.0% the breakeven in present values (PV) drops from 33 years to about 30. I don't know how you get the 34 years.
I didn't save the calculation I did. Perhaps I made an error, I will amend my post.
by Patzer
Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1567

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

This is the wrong way of thinking about the problem. Using this logic, everyone should take the lump sum and invest 60/40. It seems to me that you did not read the original post. There is no lump sum choice. And if you are going to use averages, use a sample that applies. His expected lifespan isn'...
by Patzer
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1567

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

What discount rate are you assuming, Patzer? With 4% I get close to your 34 year breakeven. The following table shows the difference in present value (PV) of the two options with several inflation rates from 1.0% to 6.0% if the pension runs from 10 to 35 years. It shows that with 2.31% inflation th...
by Patzer
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1567

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

My father is 64 soon to be 65. He will be eligible for his pension at age 65 beginning Sept. 1, 2019. a) $2650 per month beginning Sept. 1, 2019. No cost of living adjustment. b) $1946 per month beginning Sept. 1, 2019 with Cost of living adjustment. The COLA is this.. It is tied to the Consumer Pr...
by Patzer
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What lifestyle creep made you happier?
Replies: 412
Views: 48981

Re: What lifestyle creep made you happier?

New Kitchen Cabinets and Countertops. Even got the fancier more expensive stone. Was really reluctant to do it, but my significant other wanted it. Turns out I love it, and even a year later, I still smile every time I walk into the kitchen. Laptop with a Solid State Drive. The old one used to frust...
by Patzer
Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are You Dumping Netflix?
Replies: 218
Views: 19480

Re: Are You Dumping Netflix?

I still like Netflix, but I seem to spend more and more time on Amazon Prime. Amazon also has the option for me to add Britbox and Acorn, paying for them via Amazon. I might also be signing up for PBS Masterpiece after I use the 7 day trial to watch Unforgotten. I’m also not sure about HBO and Show...
by Patzer
Fri May 31, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500
Replies: 11
Views: 805

Re: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500

I keep $2,000 in my HSA collecting 1.5% Interest, to be available for medical expenses. I might be in the minority here, but I don't mind pulling from the HSA for medical expenses to get the triple tax benefit (no tax going in, no tax accruing interest, no tax when spent). The remainder is invested ...
by Patzer
Fri May 31, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking Individual Stocks
Replies: 76
Views: 8299

Re: Rethinking Individual Stocks

There is a tiny subset of investors for whom there is another use case of individual stocks, namely investors who want to target a particular segment of equities for which there is no acceptable off-the-shelf index fund. Example: I decided that allocating a portion of my US equites to utility stock...
by Patzer
Fri May 31, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking Individual Stocks
Replies: 76
Views: 8299

Re: Rethinking Individual Stocks

A random basket of 50 stocks from the S&P 500 should perform the same as the S&P 500 over an infinite time horizon. That said, it will have more volatility/risk, so it's risk adjusted return will be lower, and we don't have an infinite time horizon for things to balance out. SCHB holds 2000 stocks a...
by Patzer
Mon May 13, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Schwab
Replies: 37
Views: 4903

Re: Thoughts on Schwab

I have accounts at Schwab, Fidelity, and TDA.
I like Schwab's platform and customer service the most out of those three.

I don't have a Vanguard account, so I can't compare to that.
by Patzer
Thu May 02, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving two week's notice before stock options vest
Replies: 91
Views: 7453

Re: Giving two week's notice before stock options vest

Push back your start date 1 week. They already invested a lot of time and energy into finding you and they aren't going to give that up just because they have to wait 1 more week. Vest, Sell, and then Give 7 days notice. That way your vest is guaranteed, and 7 days is enough to not burn bridges, may...
by Patzer
Thu May 02, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Birthday party- No gifts
Replies: 42
Views: 3679

Re: Birthday party- No gifts

I and most people in my social circle always say no gifts for parties. Even have been to some weddings that said that. We are all doing well and don't need more stuff. Also, we don't want it to be a challenge for anyone who might be short on cash. I usually bring a bottle of wine, since it feels wei...
by Patzer
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One-more-year - am I done or not?
Replies: 50
Views: 7995

Re: One-more-year - am I done or not?

You have plenty to retire. I don't think you should OMY, because clearly you don't enjoy it and don't need the money. My question is: How much of a change in tempo do you want? Are you really ready to go from maximum effort to doing nothing? What if you shifted from full time to a part-time consulta...
by Patzer
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement simulation
Replies: 2
Views: 495

Re: Early retirement simulation

Great site to run a lot of different scenarios quickly and help you narrow down to a few possible approaches, before using something more detailed to fully model out retirement.

https://www.firecalc.com