Search found 654 matches

by FafnerMorell
Thu Oct 06, 2011 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prediction from Past results: Bertrand Russell's Chicken
Replies: 13
Views: 1210

Re: Prediction from Past results: Bertrand Russell's Chicken

Thus our instincts certainly cause us to believe that the sun will rise tomorrow, but we may be in no better a position than the chicken which unexpectedly has its neck wrung." -- Bertrand Russell Here's a question - if you don't believe the sun will rise tomorrow, why are you concerned about inves...
by FafnerMorell
Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Innovation Starvation" - Are we in a rut?
Replies: 55
Views: 5726

Looking at the typical life in "average" America now, compared to 30 years ago, it's not hard to spot a huge number of innovations. Pretend it's 1980 for a day and try going without the following. * Email * Internet * Cell phone (or even a cordless phone) * TV remote (actually, we had a clicker that...
by FafnerMorell
Thu Oct 06, 2011 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disney Trip - suggestions on tickets, things to do?
Replies: 26
Views: 2639

BTW, just saw this about reduced room rates for November & December (except around the holiday weeks):

http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/10/06/ne ... ney-world/
by FafnerMorell
Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much for you to retire today?
Replies: 81
Views: 9440

To retire today, I'd take an offer of $11 million. I might do it for less, but I'd have to give it a lot more thought - there's a lot of unknowns and I'd rather have too much than too little. Realistically, I figure when I do retire, it will be less than half of that, but I'll have a lot of the unkn...
by FafnerMorell
Tue Oct 04, 2011 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody else sick of hearing about Greece?
Replies: 41
Views: 3365

Cut-Throat wrote:Not as sick as I am hearing about Israel and Palestine.
We have a solution - Germany buys Greece, gives it to Palestine in exchange for Israel taking over part of their debt problem. Problem solved.
by FafnerMorell
Mon Oct 03, 2011 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should the Nobel Prize be awarded posthumously?
Replies: 27
Views: 2729

In this particular case, it seems like a silly thing to fuss over. They can't avoid the possibility that someone might die during the period between the committee selecting them, and the winner being announced (or the award being received).
by FafnerMorell
Sun Oct 02, 2011 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disney Trip - suggestions on tickets, things to do?
Replies: 26
Views: 2639

Related question: we are planning to take our two kids to Disney World and other attractions next summer. However, our kids are older: next summer, they'll be 11 and 14. I'm wondering just how much of Disney World they'll be interested in, vs. Universal Studios or Epcot or the other parks. Any sugg...
by FafnerMorell
Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disney Trip - suggestions on tickets, things to do?
Replies: 26
Views: 2639

Early November should be a great time to go - not too crowded and nice weather. We went when our 3 kids were 4, 4 (twins) and 2- some stuff they really enjoyed (they're all girls, so they loved meeting the Disney princesses and the Faries - I don't know if boys would have been as into it): * Animal ...
by FafnerMorell
Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon's new Kindle Fire looks good
Replies: 58
Views: 8463

Not only does the Fire look good / priced great, but the revamped e-ink Kindles are also getting really affordable - to the point where it becomes "Who wouldn't have one?" - and I have a vague gut feeling that we're crossing into some even newer territory with massive availability of information (at...
by FafnerMorell
Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are YOU Currently Reading? Part IV. (07/04/2010)
Replies: 1507
Views: 375469

The Devil in the White City: Murder, Magic, and Madness at the Fair that Changed America by Erik Larson. It's a pretty interesting read, particularly for me since I grew up in Chicago. I LOVED the 1893 World's fair, White City, Frederick Law Olmsted, Ferris wheel parts. I was bored by the murder pa...
by FafnerMorell
Fri Sep 23, 2011 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Faster than light travel
Replies: 39
Views: 3293

Insert link to obligatory xkcd cartoon:
http://xkcd.com/955/
by FafnerMorell
Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website very slow tonight?
Replies: 3
Views: 524

It was really slow this afternoon.
by FafnerMorell
Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Montessori preschool experience?
Replies: 31
Views: 4049

My kids are ages 5, 5 & 4 and going to a Montessori preschool/k-grade program and I've been extremely happy with it. They enjoy it a lot too (although they claim they'd prefer it if I just took them to play at the park all day long).
by FafnerMorell
Thu Sep 22, 2011 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An analogy: Hurricanes and investing
Replies: 8
Views: 776

Where do you live? Let me clarify,there is not really a cat 5 storm off the coast. It's just an analogy. Ahh. OK. When Hurricane Rita was headed towards Houston in 2005, it was reported to be not just Cat 5, but "potentially one of the worst hurricanes in 100 years" and the most intense tropical cy...
by FafnerMorell
Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An analogy: Hurricanes and investing
Replies: 8
Views: 776

Where do you live?
by FafnerMorell
Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spammers with a lot of nerve.
Replies: 7
Views: 1632

Re: Spammers with a lot of nerve.

Hi, Here is a type of spam message that I have not received before; however, it is in the same style of other spams that I have received. These spammers have a lot of audacity: We've sent a complaint onto your email Monday, September 19, 2011 8:55 AM From: "CorpTech" <do_not_reply>Add sender to Con...
by FafnerMorell
Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article from USA today
Replies: 5
Views: 1203

Forget the investment advice, I'm curious about this: "If you're the type of person who likes to wrestle anacondas while defusing a bomb during an earthquake" OK, if this is something you enjoy and want to pursue as a hobby, how the heck are you supposed to know where & when an earthquake is going t...
by FafnerMorell
Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the economy right now?
Replies: 28
Views: 3156

"The Great Depression: A Diary" by Benjamin Roth is a really eye-opening read. For folks living during the Depression, the economy wasn't as cut-n-dried as high school history class makes it seem - there were lots of false starts and "We're in a recovery, oh wait, we're not, oh wait, it's getting be...
by FafnerMorell
Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poor Harvey Golub: Needs to fire his Financial Team
Replies: 7
Views: 1538

Hmm, well it's nice to know the government only wants to take 48-65% of people's income, rather than 80-90%.... Granted, I suppose if I was making $10 million a year, I wouldn't mind so much, but it still seems a bit. So, do folks making under a $1 million still need to pay taxes? It seems a little ...
by FafnerMorell
Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buffet paid $6938 in taxes or 17% of adjusted gross income
Replies: 31
Views: 3754

I pay a lot more than $6938 in taxes - guess it's time I stopped sending the IRS a check and told them to tack on anything extra to Warren's bill.
by FafnerMorell
Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article: Which Way to Retirement?
Replies: 15
Views: 3353

PaddyMac wrote:
muddyglass wrote:it's certainly possible if kevin fitzgerald held individual stocks in his 401k!
Maybe he had it all in Bank of America!
When they told Kevin to put his money in the bank, he misunderstood and assumed they were talking stocks.... :roll:
by FafnerMorell
Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why won't gas prices fall!?!?
Replies: 71
Views: 7822

I've been seeing gas prices drop by a few pennies each day as I drive past stations. I think it's only down a dime or so total at most spots, but it has decreased.
by FafnerMorell
Tue Aug 09, 2011 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now you know why "market-timing" is foolhardy
Replies: 30
Views: 3609

Fundhunter wrote:
john94549 wrote: No cats here, but I have two schnauzers- maybe I should cut my losses and get out of the market now.
You need to rebalance and trade a schnauzer for a cat. Or at least invest in cat futures while shorting dog futures.
by FafnerMorell
Tue Aug 09, 2011 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now you know why "market-timing" is foolhardy
Replies: 30
Views: 3609

The way to tell if the cat is alive or dead is if it catches the falling knife.
by FafnerMorell
Tue Aug 09, 2011 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, will anything change?
Replies: 7
Views: 1731

The need to change will remain, the actual change itself won't happen - so it's status quo all around until the next panic (which seems to be the "new normal").
by FafnerMorell
Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mon. 9:20 am ET -- John Bogle on CNBC in a few min.
Replies: 5
Views: 955

Anyone see the movie Apollo 13? Every time I hear of the media trotting out the reassuring figures like Bogle and Buffet during a financial crisis, I feel like when NASA has Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong try to distract Jim Lovell's mom with small talk. "Are you boys in the finance industry, too?".
by FafnerMorell
Sun Aug 07, 2011 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: was the forum this anxious in 2008?
Replies: 46
Views: 7353

It's hard to judge the overall mood, because just a small percentage can post "I'm selling everything and stuffing my cash in a mattress" while the vast majority Stay Calm and Carry On. Likewise, when the market is up, there will be a few advocating 100% stocks even if you're 6 months from retirement.
by FafnerMorell
Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: World Leaders Hold Urgent Calls to Discuss Debt Crisis
Replies: 8
Views: 2599

Well, if they're not leaders or followers, that would make them "get-out-of-the-way"ers. I guess we need a more succinct way to say that.
by FafnerMorell
Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any good books on economics out there?
Replies: 50
Views: 4528

Re: Are there any good books on economics out there?

I'My question is, is economics enough of a science, with good enough data, such that there are well-established understandings out there of how the economy works? Personally, I've been wondering this a lot - although I don't expect to find a conclusive proof in a book. BTW, for an argument that eco...
by FafnerMorell
Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Employment elephant in the room
Replies: 92
Views: 7061

Here's an interesting piece that challenges the notion that uncertainty is responsible for our current job shortage: http://www.safehaven.com/article/21916/us-businesses-appear-to-have-selective-uncertainty I'm not sure the comparison between business equipment are employees is a good one - when a ...
by FafnerMorell
Fri Aug 05, 2011 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any good books on economics out there?
Replies: 50
Views: 4528

Re: Are there any good books on economics out there?

I'My question is, is economics enough of a science, with good enough data, such that there are well-established understandings out there of how the economy works? Personally, I've been wondering this a lot - although I don't expect to find a conclusive proof in a book. BTW, for an argument that eco...
by FafnerMorell
Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: August 4 2011: The last two weeks have cost me...
Replies: 42
Views: 5060

Dieharder wrote:
gnosis wrote:
Opponent Process wrote:I haven't sold anything.
+1. Exactly.
+2
+3. Do I hear 4?
by FafnerMorell
Wed Aug 03, 2011 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scary market pattern
Replies: 26
Views: 3971

I'm hoping Nis can make an illustration incorporating:
- head & shoulders
- catching a falling knife
- a dead cat bouncing
I suppose a dead cat bouncing off of someone's head as they're later speared in the shoulders with a knife would be one way to do it, but I'm sure there are more creative ways.
by FafnerMorell
Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Explain the 1930's depression
Replies: 40
Views: 5484

One of the points that "The Great Depression: A Diary" really made stand out is that the average person no longer had access to their bank account and could not withdrawl their money (or only 5% of it), and while there was widespread speculation about when individual banks might recover enough to al...
by FafnerMorell
Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Explain the 1930's depression
Replies: 40
Views: 5484

As a side note, I found "The Great Depression: A Diary" to be a fascinating read - it won't go much into the historical causes (since it's written by a person living through it).
by FafnerMorell
Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What an interesting day in the market!
Replies: 27
Views: 5465

Pardon me. I didn't see the market "tank" last week. I didn't see it that way. It was quite tame, in my opinion. With all of the rhetoric and hand wringing out there, I would have thought there would have been a 20% drop or such. It wasn't. No one can predict. C'est la vie. Yeah, it's amusing the n...
by FafnerMorell
Mon Aug 01, 2011 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need major help -- in a panic
Replies: 36
Views: 6361

Re: I need major help -- in a panic

I will post the exact days or price levels when i see them. Just so you see that it really is possible :wink: Should probably start a thread in the theory forum about that. That would be great - it probably won't be the classic that market timer's "A different approach to asset allocation" turned o...
by FafnerMorell
Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your rebalancing policy?
Replies: 64
Views: 8955

Each bimonthly deposit does a little rebalancing, and once a year around Feb I do a big rebalance as part of doinig a more indepth financial review. Also, if things get more than 5% out of whack I'll do a rebalance (which happened in 2008/09, but that's about it that I can recall).
by FafnerMorell
Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a PC: Clean crapware & other questions?
Replies: 31
Views: 4249

I always run PC Decrapifier on a new computer to get rid of the junk: http://www.pcdecrapifier.com/ Yeah - that's the one I used. In my case, I knew the specific programs I wanted to delete (HP is real big on Norton Security, and it's very, very persistent about wanting you to subscribe so as to sa...
by FafnerMorell
Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a PC: Clean crapware & other questions?
Replies: 31
Views: 4249

For 4), the power to the monitor is independent of the PC's power (the video cable which links the two only transmits a very small amount) - so you can easily upgrade your monitor at any time (just check if it's DVI or HDMI or both - but even then it's easy to get a convertor, etc) For 5) - you can ...
by FafnerMorell
Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I build my own PC?
Replies: 47
Views: 4632

The web site http://www.extremetech.com/ has a couple of articles on building one's own PC. I've done it a few times newegg.com is a web shopping site that caters to folks building their own - there are often very good reviews with respect to this. Generally not any cheaper than buying an HP or Dell...
by FafnerMorell
Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Some observations on switching my bulbs to CFL's
Replies: 48
Views: 5536

I've switched to some CFLs and have been rather disappointed in their lifespan - they don't even seem to match the incandescents, much less exceed it. I do like the lack of heat, however. I presume all the initial fuss about needing to dispose of them carefully is just scare tactics - if they weren'...
by FafnerMorell
Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I owned vanguard..
Replies: 19
Views: 2223

I think I can answer the question - see, I'm a part owner too, and I like the ads (at least on the Internet) because otherwise I'd be seeing ads for "What your dermatologist doesn't want you to know" or "This mom makes $10k a month working from home" or "One tip to a flat stomach" or other nonsense,...
by FafnerMorell
Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is US default a CDS triggering event?
Replies: 40
Views: 3567

What's a credit default swap? I mean, do they all have identical characteristics, or is each one an individual legal contract with individual legal language, providing, and clauses? If so, what's a "default" for one CDS might not be a "default" for another. And in the case of an in-between situatio...
by FafnerMorell
Tue Jul 26, 2011 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: breakdown of us debt
Replies: 26
Views: 4520

And the problem with the US government defaulting on the US government is the US government really needs that money...
by FafnerMorell
Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash inside a company what is is good for?
Replies: 18
Views: 2233

It is not. As noted above, other companies have the same opportunity if they have foresight and funding. Further, a monopoly is where a single company controls an entire market, there are plenty of competitors, they just suck. Android success is likely very good for Apple as it keeps monopoly from ...
by FafnerMorell
Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Odds of Armageddon
Replies: 51
Views: 7602

The problem with preparing for "Armageddon" is there's such a wide range of scenarios, ranging in severity from: 1) The Universe is destroyed 2) All life on Earth is destroyed 3) Just human life on Earth is destroyed 4) Merely 90% of human life on Earth is destroyed 5) For a narrow geographic area, ...
by FafnerMorell
Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is US a high or low tax country?
Replies: 76
Views: 8045

As Bogleheads often say when looking at fund costs: "You get what you don't pay for".
by FafnerMorell
Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle didn't have all the data!
Replies: 29
Views: 4185

Did this same article run somewhere else a couple of months ago? The table with 2/3s of the data listed as "Not published" which is supposed to prove the point? (Maybe Bogle didn't have all the data, but at least he showed what he had....)