Search found 788 matches

by Murray Boyd
Fri Jan 30, 2009 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Phil on Social Security
Replies: 49
Views: 7146

I stopped believing in reality when Dr. Phil started selling diet books. I stand by my decision.
by Murray Boyd
Fri Jan 30, 2009 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study by Sharpe, etal on SWR--dont recall posted
Replies: 97
Views: 13539

Re: Fundamentally Flawed

100% TIPS in a tax-deferred account may be safe, depending on your age, tax rate, spending needs, etc. Beyond that, it's hard to say what is safe under all plausible scenarios (let alone the more extreme cases). A 100% TIPS portfolio would be safe for the money, but maybe not so safe for the invest...
by Murray Boyd
Thu Jan 29, 2009 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: duration of stocks
Replies: 19
Views: 3167

duration of stocks

So, what's the duration of stocks now?
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study by Sharpe, etal on SWR--dont recall posted
Replies: 97
Views: 13539

inflation-indexed annuity

There are many ways to think about the point of this paper by Sharpe et al. Here is one way. If you have more than 45% of your retirement portfolio in equity-like volatile investments then portfolio returns in all likelihood will be fairly volatile. NO arbitrary set of SWR rules can transform those...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study by Sharpe, etal on SWR--dont recall posted
Replies: 97
Views: 13539

I'm reminded of something I think Larry posted once, It is not what you don't know that you don't that that gets you, it is what you know that ain't true. I think it is just part of the human condition for most people to struggle mightily to overcome uncertainty, and in our society we love complexi...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Jan 26, 2009 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Do Not Treat" Order to Prevent Catastrophe
Replies: 133
Views: 19843

OK, so you are planning on making more money in the future. (What line of work you going into?) So go ahead, go into debt now. You obviously have the discipline to not go crazy with credit cards. You'll be able to pay it off by the time you're 25. It's not a big deal. You don't have to be a saver ev...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Jan 26, 2009 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Care Reform Article
Replies: 44
Views: 5842

Glad you liked it! It's a real eye-opener. Not what you'd expect at all.

Here's another classic: The Moral Hazard Myth by Malcolm Gladwell.
by Murray Boyd
Mon Jan 26, 2009 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Do Not Treat" Order to Prevent Catastrophe
Replies: 133
Views: 19843

I didn't have insurance from age 22-25, even though I was working full-time. I know how it is. Getting sick isn't a black swan. You're going to get sick. Everybody does. If you don't have insurance what happens is you don't see the doctor when you need to (I didn't). So you gotta have insurance. Her...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Jan 26, 2009 1:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Care Reform Article
Replies: 44
Views: 5842

"The Best Care Anywhere"

Pushed by large employers who are eager to know what they are buying when they purchase health care for their employees, an outfit called the National Committee for Quality Assurance today ranks health-care plans on 17 different performance measures. These include how well the plans manage high blo...
by Murray Boyd
Sat Jan 24, 2009 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Culture of Entitlement
Replies: 35
Views: 6675

Hmmm - has anyone considered the paradox? Via my form of investing I tend to hold whole market indices - hence the good, the bad and the ugly(a little Clint humor) - how do I discriminate between the good guys/CEO's and the dastardly - ? my index fund is going to vote how? - like pick the hero who ...
by Murray Boyd
Sat Jan 24, 2009 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Culture of Entitlement
Replies: 35
Views: 6675

bob u. wrote:Hi Murray,

Where it leads is to Mr. Bogle's recent writings. You can start with Enough and work your way back. :D Bob U.
I think that book, being essentially a passionate argument for more regulation and enforcement, would shock a lot of the people on this board.
by Murray Boyd
Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Culture of Entitlement
Replies: 35
Views: 6675

Watch it guys, you know where this leads.
by Murray Boyd
Thu Jan 22, 2009 2:07 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Please consider economics posts
Replies: 34
Views: 5995

You can make a pretty good case that the Boglehead approach doesn't have much to do with economics. To me the Bogle way is based on what you can know for sure and can control: minimizing costs and taxes, and not bothering with a bunch of overlapping shadow index funds when a few real index funds wil...
by Murray Boyd
Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:56 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Please consider economics posts
Replies: 34
Views: 5995

Planet Money has been really terrific. Obviously some episodes are better than others, but on the whole it's really stood out from the rest of economics reporting. I think their approach of assuming the listener knows nothing actually lets them get deeper into topics. It gives them the freedom to go...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Jan 21, 2009 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Youtube videos are broad "good" source of informat
Replies: 10
Views: 1927

I've come to rely on youtube and google video search to learn basic cooking techniques (braising, etc) when I get stuck in a recipe. I'm a big believer in RTFM, but sometimes it really does help to see it.
by Murray Boyd
Wed Jan 21, 2009 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors pull record $152b in 4th qtr from Hedge Funds
Replies: 5
Views: 989

Better late than never!
by Murray Boyd
Wed Jan 21, 2009 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new debt crisis is in fact old...
Replies: 2
Views: 956

ostrich feathers and ivory

Was Rome almost brought down by an ostrich feathers and ivory bubble? Of the year 33 A.D. it may possibly have been recorded in the diaries of certain Roman business men, that there was a disturbance in the remote province of Judaea a tumult quickly quelled by the energy of his excellency Pontius Pi...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 20, 2009 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam
Replies: 61
Views: 9759

Is there anything like a box score for the oil market? It's easy enough to know the price of a barrel, but with the price being so volatile I'm curious about the details. When it dropped suddenly, is that because oil was dumped on the market, or because demand dropped suddenly? Whose demand? I know ...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 20, 2009 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam
Replies: 61
Views: 9759

Rick Ferri wrote:CCFs are terribly tax inefficient. In 2008, I believe the PIMCO Real Commodities fund distributed over 25% of NAV, most of which was short-term capital gain despite the fund being down 43% for the year. Now THAT is tax inefficient.
Is there an emoticon for a spit take? :)
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 20, 2009 3:01 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I want to not see what you posted.
Replies: 23
Views: 6214

Those systems don't work that well. You block one troll, but some of the best posters will respond anyway, so you still wind up reading through a bunch of troll-ish posts. The only solution is moderation, and failing that, schism.
by Murray Boyd
Sun Jan 18, 2009 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says US in 'economic Pearl Harbor'
Replies: 31
Views: 5346

Opponent Process wrote: well at least it did make me wonder who our most economics-savvy president was (before coming into office)...can't think of one right off the top of my head.
Does business school count? :)
by Murray Boyd
Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shiller proposes $15B annually for personal finance advice
Replies: 24
Views: 3634

I think the less you know about investing the better off you are. My grandparents had the pensions, Social Security, a few stocks, and a pile of CDs. And they never worried about their money. So, everyone should just get a job that carries a pension, like the GM and Ford workers did? Best wishes, B...
by Murray Boyd
Sun Jan 18, 2009 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shiller proposes $15B annually for personal finance advice
Replies: 24
Views: 3634

Sure, and we can get people to give astrology and the lottery while we're at it. Seriously, I think the multitudes of bad advice is worse than the lack of good advice. I give you two quotes: "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." "I...
by Murray Boyd
Sat Jan 17, 2009 3:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ancient Greece Book?
Replies: 44
Views: 14003

Re: Ancient Greece Book?

I am looking for the equivalent of the decline and fall of the roman empire for ancient greece. If there is such a thing, please let me know your recommendation. Something that covers 1000BC to 0 maybe... Try Thucydides; the 'Landmark Thucydides' is a pretty good edition. I don't think there was ex...
by Murray Boyd
Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you smarter than an econ undergrad?
Replies: 18
Views: 3328

grumel wrote:
Like all government actions, however, government investments are prone to inefficiency. To survive, private entities must invest in projects that generate more wealth than they cost.
*cough*

*cough* *cough* *cough*
by Murray Boyd
Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you smarter than an econ undergrad?
Replies: 18
Views: 3328

nisiprius wrote:I started to read the linked article and stopped when I came to a completely gratuitous reference to John Maynard Keyne's sexuality.
That was just a little grandiloquent excess on DeLong's part. He's not a bigot. I'm sure DeLong considers Keynes's stranger-than-fiction life a bonus.
by Murray Boyd
Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In an efficient market, why would P/E vary?
Replies: 38
Views: 5568

Yeah, efficient doesn't mean magic. Nobody said markets can predict the future. Prices, at best, can represent the what people expect, nothing more.

Besides, why would you assume anything is in equilibrium? In the real world almost nothing is ever in equilibrium.
by Murray Boyd
Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you smarter than an econ undergrad?
Replies: 18
Views: 3328

Are you smarter than an econ undergrad?

Eugene Fama edition : Back in the 1920s and 1930s ... John Maynard Keynes was trying to persuade us that if only we got the government to spend more money the unemployment rate might go down--by far the silliest argument against his position was the one put forward by the staff of the Chancellor of...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: Financial Transaction Fee
Replies: 32
Views: 4205

I'd rather tax trading than working.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 06, 2009 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should the Thrift Savings Plan be made available to all?
Replies: 27
Views: 4753

Yes. Especially if we can rollover our 401k, 403b, IRA, Roth IRA, Keogh, etc plans.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 06, 2009 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NASA Mars Spirit - experiencing the joy of the parent...
Replies: 16
Views: 2703

I can't stand to be in an office building for eight hours. I can't imagine living in space.

I wonder if people who dream of space haven't learned to appreciate how comfortable life on Earth is: normal gravity, fresh air, real food, going for a bike ride, not dying from radiation, etc.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The EMH in a Non-Ergodic World"
Replies: 15
Views: 3031

I thought for sure valuethinker would post a comment or two ...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The EMH in a Non-Ergodic World"
Replies: 15
Views: 3031

Thanks for the replies!

Hey, look what's happened to interest rates over time:

http://books.google.com/books?id=w3hmC1 ... #PPA557,M1
by Murray Boyd
Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times Sunday : Risk Management, Taleb, and Var
Replies: 14
Views: 3036

The comments on the naked capitalism post are worth reading too.
by Murray Boyd
Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The EMH in a Non-Ergodic World"
Replies: 15
Views: 3031

"The EMH in a Non-Ergodic World"

On occasion I've poured a little cold water on the idea of using historical returns to prove a point. Stuff like: ... since markets don't have fixed physical properties like dice or the elements in the periodic table, studying their old returns isn't going to tell you nearly enough about the future ...
by Murray Boyd
Sat Jan 03, 2009 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Heating- Geothermal Experience?
Replies: 31
Views: 4436

great thread

Great thread! I don't have much to add, except that it's always bothered me that my old house is a thermodynamic Rube Goldberg machine. Here I am burning gas like crazy to heat it, and my furnace must be fairly efficient because the exhaust isn't hot, but I've got hot exhaust blowing to the outside ...
by Murray Boyd
Fri Dec 12, 2008 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller's P/E10? waitaminutewaitaminute....
Replies: 27
Views: 4712

Shiller is one of my heroes; but then so is Bogle, and for that matter even Mandelbrot. Each of them recognizes the value in developing historical-based statistical probabilities, but they also realize the limitations. The problem isn’t with these guys; it is with those who insist on taking absolut...
by Murray Boyd
Thu Dec 04, 2008 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Visualization: Worst. Year. Ever.
Replies: 90
Views: 19223

How can anyone know what the P/E is right now, what with the E crashing and all?
by Murray Boyd
Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Origin of Wealth" by Eric D. Beinhocker
Replies: 12
Views: 3999

Hiya folks! I never followed up on this thread! I read The Upside of Down by Thomas F. Homer-Dixon a few months ago (it's fantastic) and was inspired to go back to "The Origin of Wealth." So I'm re-reading it now. I promise I'll post a summary this time! Here's a preview: volatility isn't what you t...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Nov 12, 2008 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liar's Poker update
Replies: 34
Views: 9210

Liar's Poker update

Michael Lewis, author of "Liar's Poker," on recent developments in the market: To this day, the willingness of a Wall Street investment bank to pay me hundreds of thousands of dollars to dispense investment advice to grownups remains a mystery to me. I was 24 years old, with no experience of, or par...
by Murray Boyd
Fri Oct 31, 2008 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "ENOUGH"
Replies: 22
Views: 12561

This book is clearly too political. Moderator, delete this post. :)
by Murray Boyd
Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Angry
Replies: 130
Views: 33458

Bob K right

While I enjoyed his books, I'm not much interested in defending Taleb. I think he can take care of himself. However, it wasn't until fairly recently that Taleb started talking about 90% bills / 10% high risk. I get the impression that he got tired of trying to deflect questions about asset allocatio...
by Murray Boyd
Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge funds concede errors profess optimism after worst loss
Replies: 15
Views: 3491

Hedge funds aren't magic. They're not really uniform. Like a lot of investments they're creatures of the law. It's a loophole kind of deal. They're lightly unregulated funds for rich people who don't know any better.
by Murray Boyd
Wed Sep 10, 2008 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The Predator State" by James K. Galbraith
Replies: 1
Views: 1121

"The Predator State" by James K. Galbraith

Anybody else read "The Predator State" by James K. Galbraith?
by Murray Boyd
Tue Sep 09, 2008 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Mac is right for me?
Replies: 18
Views: 5951

That macrumors buyer's guide really is terrific. I've used it for years.

Get lots of RAM. I buy mac ram from oempcworld.com. They even buy back the ram your computer comes with.
by Murray Boyd
Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Miller's Fannie Mae bet is a bust
Replies: 66
Views: 15501

economics

Buffett's the kind of guy who'd be happy to do nothing if he had no good ideas. Miller, not so much. I'm not ashamed to admit I'm happy to see Miller fail ... I remember from a public finance class way back when that degree of competition rather than public vs. private ownership is the most determin...
by Murray Boyd
Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Commodity Price Movements in the Short-Run & Long-
Replies: 1
Views: 976

"Commodity Price Movements in the Short-Run & Long-

Mark Thoma has a quickie explanation of permanent demand increases in commodity markets:

http://economistsview.typepad.com/econo ... price.html

I'm a sucker for good graphs. :)
by Murray Boyd
Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Oil Prices and Speculation"
Replies: 9
Views: 2035

"Oil Prices and Speculation"

This reminds me of Taleb's story about probability. If you flip a coin and get heads 20 times in a row, the statistician says, "The odds are still 50/50," but you ought to say, "Let me see that coin!" A Few Speculators Dominate Vast Market for Oil Trading, by David Cho, Washington Post: Regulators h...