Search found 788 matches

by Murray Boyd
Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reasons not to install an outdoor pool in cold climate?
Replies: 33
Views: 5601

Re: Reasons not to install an outdoor pool in cold climate?

if you read the Freakonomics book, more children are killed due to pool accidents than due to unsafe storage of home firearms. (that's not to start an argument about gun laws, it is a documented fact according to the book and blog). So I would point out the risks of neighbour;s kid or baby getting ...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please critique my new article: "A Safer Withdrawal Pla
Replies: 68
Views: 9544

Re: TIPS ladders before retirement

One might reasonably ask why so many 401k and 403b administrators over the years have believed that it was vitally important that 401k and 403b participants be allowed to invest in emerging market stock funds, commodity funds, and junk bond funds, but that investing in individual TIPS bonds was bey...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the next bubble ?
Replies: 53
Views: 9652

Both health care and alternative energy will utterly transform our world in wondrous ways in the next 50 years, but it is not always fast-growing industries that have the most profitable investment opportunities (tobacco, a slow growing industry, is actually one of the best for investors). It' sver...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Commentary from John Hussman
Replies: 18
Views: 2965

I cannot believe that Bear Stearns bondholders are getting 100%. That's an outrage. Everybody on this board knows corporate bonds are risky. What do we all do? Take our risks with stocks, and keep our bonds safe and short duration. Whoever was holding those bonds needs to lose their money. That's ho...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are people using as inflationary hedges now that
Replies: 30
Views: 6318

As for traffic congestion, you either pay with your time or with your money. At least the money generates public funds. I'd rather pay the money.

When you think about it allocating freeway space by waiting makes as much sense as Soviet breadlines.
by Murray Boyd
Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Valuing averaging update
Replies: 7
Views: 1631

Valuing averaging update

With all the recent, er, excitement, what's up with value averaging? Anybody doing it? I read up on it a few years ago, but I can't exactly remember how it works in blowup situations.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein calls for fiduciary regulations
Replies: 16
Views: 2841

I bet, like people buying speakers out of the back of a van, plenty of Madoff investors thought they were in on the scam.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 17, 2009 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Conventional Wisdom about Investing is Wrong
Replies: 67
Views: 10166

I'm teaching THE WEALTH OF NATIONS tomorrow and FWIW I think Adam Smith would be amazed by your pessimism :D The first chapter discusses how a European pauper in his time had far more creature comforts than the wealthiest king in Africa From this we can conclude that Adam Smith had never heard of I...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Conventional Wisdom about Investing is Wrong
Replies: 67
Views: 10166

I'm so sick of people knocking stocks, saying they're riskier than we thought, etc. The fact of the matter is that for most people, investing in stocks is the ONLY way to have a chance at retiring someday. I'm willing to take the risk for one reason and one reason only: the alternatives won't get m...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Conventional Wisdom about Investing is Wrong
Replies: 67
Views: 10166

The real issue is that many investors seem to have been persuaded that a high stock allocation meant that they could safely save at a lower rate than would have been required by conservative investments. A very rich friend of mine told me (back in 1999 or so) that because stocks return so much you ...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Mar 16, 2009 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using carried over losses tricks
Replies: 7
Views: 1636

Using carried over losses tricks

Are there are any investments that allow you to use up carried over losses? I've got so much on Schedule D I'll probably die before I use it up. I know there are plenty of bad investments that throw off regular income when they should be capital gains. Is there anything in reverse? Can you buy zero-...
by Murray Boyd
Sat Mar 14, 2009 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the next bubble ?
Replies: 53
Views: 9652

Annuities. :P
by Murray Boyd
Fri Mar 13, 2009 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The man is still Mad as Hell !!
Replies: 3
Views: 1636

It's going to take about another thousand or two Stewart threads to balance out all the Ben Stein posts.
by Murray Boyd
Fri Mar 13, 2009 1:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jim Cramer gets bad press
Replies: 50
Views: 8781

[deleted preemptively]
by Murray Boyd
Fri Mar 13, 2009 1:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jim Cramer gets bad press
Replies: 50
Views: 8781

Did anyone see the faceoff of Jim Cramer vs. Jon Stewart that was supposed to air tonight? I am too cheap to have a cable package that gets Comedy Central or whatever Stewart is on now. The full interview is on their site: http://www.thedailyshow.com/ I'm watching it now, and I'm pretty sure Cramer...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Mar 11, 2009 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You did not buy at the top of the market.
Replies: 42
Views: 7145

Bob, do you have any opinions about plain old bills? IIRC they return about 1% net of inflation, which isn't that much worse than TIPS.
by Murray Boyd
Sat Mar 07, 2009 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification becoming irrelevant ?
Replies: 21
Views: 3534

I'm thinking of the guy who posts, "I'm 61 and had 100% in stocks, and I just lost half, now what do I do?"
by Murray Boyd
Fri Mar 06, 2009 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification becoming irrelevant ?
Replies: 21
Views: 3534

I thought the conventional wisdom has always been that when the poop hits the fan correlations all go to 1. It may be that exceptions are the rare case. Bob, I think you should write a one-pager to answer the question: "I just realized that my risk tolerance was MUCH LOWER than I thought. Now what d...
by Murray Boyd
Thu Mar 05, 2009 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jon Stewart ridicules CNBC on Daily Show
Replies: 99
Views: 16443

Re: Jon Stewart ridicules CNBC on Daily Show

djw wrote:Please note that NBC Universal owns both CNBC and Comedy Central.
According to wikipedia Viacom owns Comedy Central.

I read about this on a couple of blogs too. I'm staying up too!
by Murray Boyd
Wed Mar 04, 2009 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Inferior goods
Replies: 9
Views: 1969

ddb wrote:What does this post have to do with "Investing - Theory, News & General"?
File it under consumption smoothing, time-preference, wealth effects, representative agent, liquidity preference, uncertainty, risk, or something. Sheesh.

I post papers all the time, nobody comments then.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Inferior goods
Replies: 9
Views: 1969

If things get worse, I wonder if alcohol will go up.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 03, 2009 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Animal Spirits" by Akerlof and Shiller
Replies: 1
Views: 851

"Animal Spirits" by Akerlof and Shiller

Anybody else reading "Animal Spirits" by Akerlof and Shiller? I just got it.
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 03, 2009 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Inferior goods
Replies: 9
Views: 1969

Inferior goods

In econ class you sometimes learn about inferior goods -- things people buy more of when their wealth decreases. They're in the news now: http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MK-AU446A_FOOD_NS_20090212182051.gif http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123448606475780133.html Eggs! Who knew? You know wha...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Disappearance
Replies: 91
Views: 21589

I'm mostly taxable so I've never payed any attention to REITs. I just looked over at Morningstar. Holy cow! That is ugly.

At least it's yielding 12%. :)
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fallacy of Time Diversification
Replies: 121
Views: 16305

I remember a few years ago Andy Grove was opining about flaws in option pricing models, and it was so apparent he was doing this only out of financial altruism for the greater good of the republic. Andy obviously was not writing these heart rendering op-ed pieces because using option models would a...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fallacy of Time Diversification
Replies: 121
Views: 16305

Re: Three good questions

The strongest argument in favor of time diversification is reversion to the mean (I am tempted to say the only argument), but reversion to the mean is an empirical question. Do stock markets nearly always revert to the mean over some reasonable time period barring truly catastrophic events? I look ...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next stop: irrational exhuberance?
Replies: 42
Views: 7477

If I had a suspicion, the government is waiting until the chorus calling for nationalization (from noted socialists like Alan Greenspan and, today, James A Baker III in the Financial Times) has reached a deafening crescendo. My hunch is that they're scrambling behind the scenes, because when it com...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Mar 02, 2009 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fallacy of Time Diversification
Replies: 121
Views: 16305

Re: Dogma of the Day - Paul Samuelson

That "Dogma of the Day" is a hoot.
by Murray Boyd
Mon Mar 02, 2009 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book recommendations
Replies: 28
Views: 4148

The key thing to get your head around is the Real Business Cycle view (business cycles are caused by changing technology and government action is essentially irrelevant or harmful) which was invented by the likes of Edward Prescott, Robert Lucas, Robert Barro (all of whom won Nobels for their work)...
by Murray Boyd
Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Run
Replies: 25
Views: 4063

Re: Stocks for the Long Run

Stocks for the Long Run Pro: Brad Delong Con: Zvi Bodie It baffles me that smart economists like DeLong think there's an equity premium puzzle. Stocks are risky! You don't live forever. There's just not that much money in the world that people can tie up for 30 years in an attempt to arbitrage stoc...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Feb 25, 2009 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 breaks new ground
Replies: 139
Views: 34792

bank losses

Another question: could the sudden drop in E be from the massive bank losses? They can't keep losing money forever. (Unless we let them, like Japan did ...)
by Murray Boyd
Wed Feb 25, 2009 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 breaks new ground
Replies: 139
Views: 34792

bank losses

Another question: could the sudden drop in E be from the massive bank losses? They can't keep losing money forever. (Unless we let them, like Japan did ...)
by Murray Boyd
Wed Feb 25, 2009 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great commodities debate
Replies: 39
Views: 7528

Re: The great commodities debate

What ever happened to the great commodities debate? It has a new home forevermore. :D http://seekingalpha.com/article/64411-the-great-commodities-debate-part-i http://seekingalpha.com/article/64656-the-great-commodities-debate-part-ii That's hilarious. Great minds, etc. I swear I hadn't seen that p...
by Murray Boyd
Wed Feb 25, 2009 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great commodities debate
Replies: 39
Views: 7528

The great commodities debate

What ever happened to the great commodities debate? Where are we at now? Good diversifier or not? PCRIX yea or nay?

(If this has been hashed out recently just post the link)
by Murray Boyd
Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 breaks new ground
Replies: 139
Views: 34792

Good stuff about earnings. I don't know anything about corporate accounting, but I've read plenty about how this is a balance sheet recession, and how corporations are all trying to boost assets right now. Is there a connection? Do corporations make earnings disappear while boosting their balance s...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Feb 24, 2009 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
Replies: 36
Views: 6281

Can all you Taleb haters out there understand why he was so angry now?
by Murray Boyd
Tue Feb 24, 2009 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

Pete, the descriptive vs prescriptive issue is enormous. How prescriptive a paper is in its conclusions is mostly a function of how narrow its questions are. Also, economists often take pleasure in perverse results, i.e., the optimal number of children to have is negative two, that kind of thing (an...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Feb 24, 2009 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 breaks new ground
Replies: 139
Views: 34792

Good stuff about earnings. I don't know anything about corporate accounting, but I've read plenty about how this is a balance sheet recession, and how corporations are all trying to boost assets right now. Is there a connection? Do corporations make earnings disappear while boosting their balance sh...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Feb 24, 2009 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

Pete, there are a lot of ideas at play here, so I expect a little bit of back and forth before we get things sorted out ... anyway, to the extent that economists are considering how people should finance their retirement, it looks to me that they're working in the life-cycle paradigm. And as far as ...
by Murray Boyd
Tue Feb 24, 2009 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who Gambles In The Stock Market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1752

Who Gambles In The Stock Market?

Who Gambles In The Stock Market? ABSTRACT This study shows that the propensity to gamble and investment decisions are correlated. At the aggregate level, individual investors prefer stocks with lottery features, and like lottery demand, the demand for lottery-type stocks increases during economic d...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

Hi Murray, Economists researching retirement and other household finance issues use the life-cycle model. If a financial economist is studying financial market risks and returns in general that is a different matter. Fama and French do excellent research on returns and risks in financial markets, b...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

Or to put it another way: anyone who's still puzzling over the equity premium probably isn't up to speed with life-cycle investing models.
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

I'm obviously not qualified to characterize it fairly, but it's my impression that Bodie is still ahead of the curve, and that most of the papers put out by financial economists are still working in the MPT/EMT/CAPM paradigm. I'll play with ssrn and repec a little to see if I can back that up. I don...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

Thanks Bob. When I took macro back in the 1990s the newer macro models (post 1980s) were based on consumption smoothing, and generally referred to as real business cycle theory (They overlap with the new Keynesian models somewhat). I'm not sure to what extent macroeconomists were ever involved with ...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Center for Retirement Research papers
Replies: 2
Views: 1172

Vanguard Center for Retirement Research papers

I didn't know Vanguard did this kind of research:

Papers by Stephen P. Utkus
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

A small minority of us at Bogleheads have been advocating for the last several years that this standard economic life cycle approach to investing and personal finance should be the approach most people should follow. This group includes, but is not limited to, alec, bob u, Murray Boyd, and myself. ...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11817

Re: Life cycle investing is finally rolling your way

Financial economists had abandoned the MPT (modern portfolio theory) centered approach to retirement planning and general household financial planning, which forms the backbone of much of the advice at Bogleheads, by 1980. I thought it was just Bodie! Bob, are you talking about real business cycle ...
by Murray Boyd
Mon Feb 23, 2009 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The “Good Bank” plan
Replies: 3
Views: 1093

For example:

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