Search found 1021 matches

by allsop
Sat May 12, 2012 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do about all the bad economic news
Replies: 15
Views: 1660

Re: What to do about all the bad economic news

There are some "ideological biases" exhibited in this thread, as well as in the recent "France" thread, which I think is not very beneficial with respect to investing if it blinds one to facts. To add to Richards post above here are some numbers from Krugman: European Crisis Realities to ponder on: ...
by allsop
Fri May 11, 2012 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Currency Hedged fund vs. neutral vs. not
Replies: 15
Views: 1506

Re: Currency Hedged fund vs. neutral vs. not

So our standard of living is uniquely sensitive to that dollar/ USD exchange rate. the analogy is with some small European country (like Denmark) that has its own currency but is tiny compared to Germany, it's main trading partner. The Euro was supposed to fix this problem (but has, in fact, made i...
by allsop
Sat May 05, 2012 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interest rates are expected to go up in the next two years?
Replies: 18
Views: 2279

Re: Interest rates are expected to go up in the next two yea

For several years there have been predictions of high inflation along with high interest rates but they have all been proven wrong, not that they will ever admit that despite clear evidence to the contrary, including a frequent posting author of personal finance books posting links to [censored]. Ye...
by allsop
Sat May 05, 2012 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do scientists invest scientifically?
Replies: 56
Views: 4263

Re: Do scientists invest scientifically?

I have friends and coworkers that have PhD or masters degrees, of various disciplines, and none of them are Bogleheads.

Their work/research is excellent but personal finance is sort of in another plane of existence, but hey, I used to be in that category.
by allsop
Sat May 05, 2012 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Smart money behavior starts young
Replies: 20
Views: 2497

Re: Smart money behavior starts young

HardKnocker wrote:I'll add "As your income increases do not commensurately increase your spending/lifestyle, instead invest the increase."
Or end up like some law professor complaining in a blog that his family can barely make their ends meet with more than $300 000 in yearly income. :oops:
by allsop
Sat Apr 28, 2012 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article that highest risk is not highest reward
Replies: 45
Views: 3258

Re: Article that highest risk is not highest reward

An offer of high return with no risk is a very good sign of attempted fraud, for a reason.
by allsop
Sat Apr 28, 2012 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Analogies
Replies: 38
Views: 4906

Re: Financial Analogies

I was explaining market weighted indexes vs. equal weighted indexes to a fellow Boglehead. I told him that a market weighted index is like the House of Representative where larger states have more votes. Equal weighted indexes are like the Senate where small states have the same clout as large ones...
by allsop
Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Raskob's "Everybody Ought To Be Rich"
Replies: 46
Views: 6669

Re: Raskob's "Everybody Ought To Be Rich"

For good as well as bad humans are not mindless. Humans also have a tendency to kill themselves in the World Wars much more efficient than the nature does... Not being a biologist, yeah, that is part of what I meant by "as well as bad". We also have a great capacity for caring and doing good, and t...
by allsop
Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Raskob's "Everybody Ought To Be Rich"
Replies: 46
Views: 6669

Re: Raskob's "Everybody Ought To Be Rich"

Note though that any study of biology or ecology will tell you that when a population of bacteria becomes too large for the pond in which it is in, either due to the effluent it produces or its consumption of its resources, that the result is catastrophic collapse. We are vulnerable to a global pan...
by allsop
Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want to be Less Risky? Add More Risk!
Replies: 153
Views: 8089

Re: Want to be Less Risky? ADD MORE RISK!

yobria wrote:Again, you can't make a truly "riskless" investment any less risky, as the name implies. What exactly is the riskless investment you're talking about?
Greek government bonds and notes was considered safe and riskless a few years ago :twisted:
by allsop
Tue Apr 10, 2012 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: new HDTV is 3D worth getting?
Replies: 59
Views: 4757

Re: new HDTV is 3D worth getting?

The quality and resolution of the source material you are going to watch is a very important factor when deciding size of TV, along with viewing distance. The THX recommendations, for instance, assume that the source material is high resolution and high quality, so when people start watching other t...
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI EM 50 not broad enough?
Replies: 5
Views: 694

You are confusing "boglehead" with "US based investor" :P I use "S&P Asia 50" (Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore) as my proxy for EM because that is what is available for me at low cost (TER of 0.425%) in Sweden and it covers about 50% of MSCI EM index. Recently there is a new MSCI EM fund at 1.0...
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Armstrong: Invest for Total Return
Replies: 26
Views: 3614

More "stockism." Why is it that advocates of stocks accept it as gospel in the stock market, there is reversion to the mean and bear markets are sure to be followed by bull markets and it will all average out in over a few decades of retirement... but that this does not apply to bonds, and that low...
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Armstrong: Invest for Total Return
Replies: 26
Views: 3614

Armstrong refers to the US being only 35% but the US is 47.3% of the Vanguard All World ETF (VT). I'm wondering about that remark. FTSE All-World have USA at about 43% and claims to cover about 95% of the global free-float stock market, i.e., stocks that an investor could buy. The 35% is not unreas...
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an inflation hedge
Replies: 11
Views: 1775

Did not listen to the interview, but

1. Duration of the junk bonds issued is very important. Low duration means that the companies have to refinance at higher interest rate when the inflation increases.

2. Default rate. Junk bonds have their name for a reason.
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is stock picking a dying art?
Replies: 38
Views: 2834

Beagler wrote:
fishnskiguy wrote:It always has been.

Chris
Then, after all these years, why hasn't it died off?
Because it is a zombie.

http://images.wikia.com/residentevil/im ... rusRE2.jpg
[large image of video game zombie dog removed by admin alex - you can click the link if you want to see it]
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI EM 50 not broad enough?
Replies: 5
Views: 694

You are confusing "boglehead" with "US based investor" :P I use "S&P Asia 50" (Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore) as my proxy for EM because that is what is available for me at low cost (TER of 0.425%) in Sweden and it covers about 50% of MSCI EM index. Recently there is a new MSCI EM fund at 1.0%...
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax "Gain" Harvesting
Replies: 57
Views: 5171

Thanks. Is that also saying that the kiddie tax only applies to children under age 24 ? :shock: From the perspective of the parents aren't their children always their children, regardless of their age? I don't understand what's so shocking. It is the inconsistencies of at what age a child is no lon...
by allsop
Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Armstrong: Invest for Total Return
Replies: 26
Views: 3614

Armstrong does not seem to have a strong home country bias, like some posters on this forum: Benz : So, within client portfolios is it your sense that it makes sense to just stay sort of geographically neutral relative to the world's market-cap or how do you approach that question? Armstrong : We ac...
by allsop
Fri Oct 14, 2011 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College Degree in Something Practical...
Replies: 141
Views: 11479

gkaplan wrote:Actually he went to Yale.
And to Harvard as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush
by allsop
Fri Oct 14, 2011 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College Degree in Something Practical...
Replies: 141
Views: 11479

lightheir wrote: I don't think the employers are interested at all in rewarding Jonny Inheritance who got into Harvard and maintained a D average because daddy donated millions.
Well, he did end up as the President of the United States of America.
by allsop
Fri Oct 14, 2011 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College Degree in Something Practical...
Replies: 141
Views: 11479

I have conflicted feelings about some of the college kids. Some of them do come across as intelligent, thoughtful, and resourceful individuals with a fair bit of poise. I think their ideas are all bad, but youth tends to be a time when one can fall prey to ideological distortions, since theory (usu...
by allsop
Fri Oct 14, 2011 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax "Gain" Harvesting
Replies: 57
Views: 5171

cb474 wrote:Thanks. Is that also saying that the kiddie tax only applies to children under age 24?
:shock:
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100/100 asset allocation
Replies: 234
Views: 22101

When reading some threads I get the impression that home-country bias is something that only non-US based investors is doing.
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there more bad news than before?
Replies: 15
Views: 1350

Why this "decade" requirement when we just have have gone through the worst financial crisis since the Depression, and still no end in sight? The sky really was falling a couple of years ago. Some pundits talk about double-dips, lost decades etc... believing that the crash of 2008 hasn't really wor...
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets play devil's advocate. Could index investing fail?
Replies: 30
Views: 3256

As for front-running the indices, what you are basically saying is that if it becomes impossible to construct an honest and accurate index then index investing fails. I guess that's true. I'd also add, though, that the drag of front-running the indices has to approach the expense ratio of the typic...
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets play devil's advocate. Could index investing fail?
Replies: 30
Views: 3256

^ Perhaps your goals are not aligned with the stock market or is it a trick question?
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 39394

Are you really prepared to argue that if I wasn't willing to put in three years worth of my normal investments in a lump sum right in the middle of the Lehman-Merrill Lynch-AIG-TARP saga that I must have had the wrong AA? No, but I will observe that it seems you were not willing to invest until aft...
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Value of Savings
Replies: 40
Views: 9884

You did not answer bobcat2's question, please do.
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets play devil's advocate. Could index investing fail?
Replies: 30
Views: 3256

Front running is a real problem for some indexes (some indexes are better constructed than others) but that usually pales to the cost of active management. So what is the alternative?
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there more bad news than before?
Replies: 15
Views: 1350

Re: Is there more bad news than before?

For those who have been investing for a decade or more and have been through some bears and crashes, I am curious: did the news through those times look about like it does now? I suspect there have been people shouting "the sky is falling" through every one of these, but I only just started paying ...
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 39394

[snip] I just bumped, on the Personal Investments page, this thread that I started in 2008, when I received an inheritance smack in the middle of the financial panic. Are you really prepared to argue that if I wasn't willing to put in three years worth of my normal investments in a lump sum right i...
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to park a 6 month emergency fund near 100k?
Replies: 51
Views: 6065

Re: Where to park a 6 month emergency fund near 100k?

Wife and I, both MDs, have just hit earnings stride after finishing training, and now also own a pretty hefty mortgage and a new infant. We can definitely afford everything and save, but our 6-month emergency fund cash will be close to 100k and we should have it soon. Where do do you think we shoul...
by allsop
Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy used cars like a Boglehead actually should?
Replies: 168
Views: 26783

Very good and cheap public transport where I live so no need for a car.

Our total monthly transportation cost for a family of three is about $160 a month, including a rental car for a week during summer.
by allsop
Sun Oct 02, 2011 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Debt vs American Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 1448

Japan does have a huge amount of assets with net debts as percentage of GDP estimated to be about 117% for 2010, from IMF database.

From IMF: General government debt (net/gross) for USA, Japan and Italy
by allsop
Sun Oct 02, 2011 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much money do you need to retire at 40?
Replies: 90
Views: 17822

There should be some kind of formula that gives you years to retirement based on saving rates and estimated real growth rate of money saved. I would really want to see a chart where X-scale is saving rate as % of gross income (I know taxes is big question mark there) and Y is years to reach 25x spe...
by allsop
Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig - Buying on the Dips
Replies: 19
Views: 3480

Why are people so upset? Most of us are not doing DCA but periodic investing because that is the way we are payed, so buying on the dips probably will not have that much of an impact any way. What's the difference between DCA and periodic investing? I thought I was DCA when they invest money from m...
by allsop
Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buying on the Dips Isn't All It's Cracked Up to Be
Replies: 18
Views: 3090

Looks like another form of market timing doesn't work. Rebalancing is better. Likewise, Allan Roth, a financial planner at Wealth Logic in Colorado Springs, Colo., calculates that an investor with 40% in U.S. stocks, 20% in international stocks and 40% in U.S. bonds who rebalanced at year end would...
by allsop
Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig - Buying on the Dips
Replies: 19
Views: 3480

Why are people so upset? Since the market is generally upward trending a lump sum investing is expected (not guaranteed) to perform better than dollar cost averaging, and apparently buying on dips apparently is not better than lump summing either. Most of us are not doing DCA but periodic investing ...
by allsop
Fri Sep 23, 2011 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too much tax loss harvest?
Replies: 43
Views: 4391

livesoft wrote:Your signature currently reads "You can read people the Wiki and FAQ list, but you can't lead them to them." but the "read" and "lead" used to be in different places.
Is this a sign of capitulation :lol:

Edit: Fix quote
by allsop
Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nisiprius's post after the US downgrade
Replies: 31
Views: 4933

Re: Nisiprius's post after the US downgrade

Hi all, I believe it was Nisiprius, who made an INCREDIBLE post (as always, I'm still waiting on you to write a book) after the U.S.'s downgrade, that showed examples of other stock market trends where it looked good and bad, and really made the point to just "stay the course." Did anyone bookmark ...
by allsop
Thu Sep 22, 2011 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6845
Views: 1495667

For those who think that the stock market is a good way to save for retirement : Think again :roll: Stop drinking cool aid :lol: Thinking that equities have no place in a long term investment strategy is as silly as thinking bonds have no place in a long term investment strategy. If the ebbs and fl...
by allsop
Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6845
Views: 1495667

The key word, above, is "annually" rebalanced. Many (most?) of us don't rebalance annually, we rebalance when our allocations fall outside our target percentages. I've done 2 rebalances in the last 12 months - the first one, about 8 months ago shifted some money from stocks to st bonds, the second ...
by allsop
Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Indexing Extremists"
Replies: 134
Views: 12017

That said, however, I would say that refusing to use *some* sort of identifier in the article, i.e. their chosen M-star 'handles', for Pete's sakes, is a whole lot worse form than any supposedly bad form in not using identities at all. Seriously? That would NEVER get by the editors. That would viol...
by allsop
Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Indexing Extremists"
Replies: 134
Views: 12017

That said, however, I would say that refusing to use *some* sort of identifier in the article, i.e. their chosen M-star 'handles', for Pete's sakes, is a whole lot worse form than any supposedly bad form in not using identities at all. Seriously? That would NEVER get by the editors. That would viol...
by allsop
Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would rather buy used car than a new mattress - help!
Replies: 36
Views: 6160

^The OP posted a year ago and most likely have solved the bed problem by now :wink:
by allsop
Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Bodyweight Scale
Replies: 27
Views: 2711

Opponent Process wrote:since risk correlates with return, you should shoot for morbid obesity.
I see that you did get the difference between correlation and causation in a recent thread :beer
by allsop
Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Counterparty Risk in Synthetic ETF's?
Replies: 5
Views: 1014

Interesting articles. In Sweden a new China ETF is announced by XACT that is synthetic and the counter party is the mutual fund company's owner Handelsbanken. It is a wonder that after Lehman investors are not more concerned about counter party risk. As for googling one can add "site:ft.com" to only...
by allsop
Thu Sep 15, 2011 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to suppress Lenovo LapTop commercials?
Replies: 13
Views: 2980

Use Firefox and install addons like "Adblock Plus" and "NoScript". With those addons you can block selectively and it really reduces WWW spam.
by allsop
Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The only person who was right..."
Replies: 24
Views: 3723

about 15% less than it was at the beginning of the century. Nice, saying century makes it sound much more impressive. :) Of course, despite all the celebrations occurring in 1999, the century actually began Jan 1, 2001. VTSMX is at +18% nominal and about -8% real since the real beginning of the cen...