Search found 1090 matches

by Avo
Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice to a newbie
Replies: 18
Views: 2985

Re: Advice to a newbie

Annuities within retirement accounts are almost always a bad idea. They almost always have unacceptably high costs with no added benefit.

You can get much more meaningful help here if you provide complete info in this format:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212
by Avo
Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 25484

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

It would also be logical, on the basis of expected return, to go for the following deal:

Flip a coin. Heads, you double your money, plus 10%. Tails, you lose everything.

But I doubt you would take it ...
by Avo
Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 25484

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

I don't hold bonds because of fear, I hold them because I want to narrow the range of probable outcomes.

Investing on the basis of expected value alone can result in a nasty surprise when you go to open that vault.
by Avo
Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 25484

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

The reason most of us don't do this at age 40 is that we want to retire at age 65, and we worry that it might be 1907 ...
by Avo
Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones, American Funds, Fiduciary Rule changes
Replies: 31
Views: 5831

Re: Edward Jones, American Funds, Fiduciary Rule changes

Or, just do this: "age in bonds": 40% in a total bond market index fund (FSITX at Fidelity or VBTLX at Vanguard) and 60% in a total stock market index (FSTVX at Fidelity or VTSAX at Vanguard). I have listed the ticker symbols of the "premium" class (at Fideltiy) or "admiral&...
by Avo
Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones, American Funds, Fiduciary Rule changes
Replies: 31
Views: 5831

Re: Edward Jones, American Funds, Fiduciary Rule changes

Welcome to the forum. Your upfront fees are gone. I'm sorry to say that they bought you nothing of value. You are continuing to pay overly high expense ratios on the funds themselves. I would transfer the whole thing in-kind to Vanguard or Fidelity (not sure which would be easier or cheaper for liqu...
by Avo
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Edward Jones to Fidelity - Pros/Cons of Index funds
Replies: 12
Views: 5886

Re: Moving from Edward Jones to Fidelity - Pros/Cons of Index funds

Fidelity Contrafund started in 1990, run by then unknown manager Will Danoff. The hot Fidelity fund at that time was Magellan, managed by the legendary Peter Lynch (who was about to retire, turning Magellan over to a new manager). Anyone with any sense in 1990 would buy Magellan, not Contrafund. Sur...
by Avo
Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with choosing Financial Planning / Investment Firm
Replies: 15
Views: 1999

Re: Help with choosing Financial Planning / Investment Firm

If I was going to pay an advisor an AUM fee (which I would never ever do), I would find one who uses DFA funds:

https://us.dimensional.com/individuals
by Avo
Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Left Ameriprise, Looking for general comments and advice
Replies: 22
Views: 2659

Re: Left Ameriprise, Looking for general comments and advice

I have dropped 457 contributions to the minimum ... since I believe my tax bracket with never be lower than now, and taxes right now are very minimal. This is not the correct comparison! The 457 eliminates taxes on earnings that still have to be paid in a taxable account (eg capital gains taxes).
by Avo
Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 326625

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Petrocelli wrote:For example, I bought my wife a Rolex in 1988 for $2000. That watch new now costs about $8,000 and I could probably sell it for around $4,000 to $5,000.
And have you had it serviced regularly? If so, how much did that cost? And if not, I doubt you could sell it for 4K.
by Avo
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber's new book Investing With the House
Replies: 41
Views: 6257

Re: Meb Faber's new book Investing With the House

Here's another example of how hard it is to pick the stock pickers to follow. Back in the 90s, asset management firm Litman Gregory had a newsletter recommending various actively managed funds. Their belief was that the best fund managers did have some good picks that boosted their funds, but after ...
by Avo
Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leaving DFA advisor - should I keep DFA positions or simplify?
Replies: 21
Views: 4195

Re: Leaving DFA advisor - should I keep DFA positions or simplify?

Wow, what a mess. What on earth is the reason for all those different intl funds? Makes no sense.

I like a lot of what DFA does, but not this portfolio. I would sell everything if it were mine.
by Avo
Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confusion About Preventing Theft of IRS Tax Data
Replies: 23
Views: 3388

Re: Confusion About Preventing Theft of IRS Tax Data

That doesn't help against ID theft: if a false return is filed, it will (falsely!) claim a refund.
by Avo
Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 52
Views: 23778

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

What’s Wrong with Multiplying by the Square Root of Twelve which seems to explain the problem, but I have trouble making sense of the correct formula: http://i65.tinypic.com/11gredy.png What I don't understand is how to get "Mm" which is defined as the expected value of monthly returns . ...
by Avo
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"
Replies: 104
Views: 15414

Re: "Picking Individual Stocks is a Loser's Game"

But is advice for a doctor (white coat) any different than a blue collar (shop mechanic) worker? No, except doctors tend to have higher incomes (and hence tax issues can play a more significant role), they can have special concerns such as malpractice insurance, they are often self-employed, and th...
by Avo
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wall Street Strategists Are Cutting Their 2016 Estimates"
Replies: 14
Views: 2388

Re: "Wall Street Strategists Are Cutting Their 2016 Estimates"

This was the first time I entered the contest, and I made a rookie mistake: I picked 2222.22. Thought it was cute. But so did five other entrants! :oops: So if I win, I have to split the prize 6 ways. :( That's gonna seriously impact the scale of my victory party. Next year, I'm goin' with a random ...
by Avo
Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing thoughts for parents
Replies: 2
Views: 407

Re: Investing thoughts for parents

Well since their pensions and SS significantly exceed their needs (if I have followed correctly here), then it doesn't matter how the rest is invested. It can be ultraconservative (if they don't want to lose principal), or ultra aggressive (if they want to maximize expected return for heirs, risk be...
by Avo
Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 58
Views: 7800

Re: A look at the small cap premium

So is it possible that the historical outperformance of small-cap indices simply reflects a return of the historically higher costs needed to buy a sufficiently diversified basket of small caps? Kind of like a sale where "We pay the sales tax!" Surely this has been studied in the academic ...
by Avo
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 58
Views: 7800

Re: A look at the small cap premium

I disagree. I just checked Vanguard Explorer and T Rowe Price New Horizons, two well known actively managed small cap funds that were available in 1979, and they were comparable to NAESX over the next 10 years, and well below the M* small-blend "average". I wasn't able to buy the in-hindsi...
by Avo
Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 58
Views: 7800

Re: A look at the small cap premium

So do you know of a better vehicle for small caps that was actually available for purchase by retail investors?

If not, I claim this is the correct comparison. It's what actual investors could have actually gotten. The indices are vaporware.
by Avo
Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 58
Views: 7800

Re: A look at the small cap premium

If we compare performance using funds that were actually available to cost-sensitive investors, large caps have outperformed small caps since 1/1/1979. Below is the chart of the Vanguard small-cap fund NAESX vs their SP500 fund, VFINX:

Image
by Avo
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to turn for investment advice...
Replies: 11
Views: 1430

Re: Where to turn for investment advice...

Here is all the advice you need right now. TSP: put everything into the L2050 fund. Outside savings: put it all in an online bank account (eg Ally) yielding 1% or so. Next: figure out what your goals for the outside savings are. Buy a house? Fund a kid's college? Have an emergency fund (always a goo...
by Avo
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I getting fleeced on my IRA? Opinions welcome.
Replies: 21
Views: 1482

Re: Am I getting fleeced on my IRA? Opinions welcome.

The agent has been managing my wife's funds for years, with happy results, actually. You won't know how happy the results were unless you compare to an appropriate benchmark of index funds in the same asset classes (taking into account timing of deposits and withdrawals, if any). Of course it is po...
by Avo
Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 6051

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

The "permanent portfolio" has been discussed extensively by bogleheads. 2014 blog post by LadyGeek (with links to extensive prior discussions): https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/harry-brownes-permanent-portfolio/ 2010 article by William Bernstein: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/h...
by Avo
Sat Feb 06, 2016 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Investing in a 2%World
Replies: 4
Views: 830

Re: Bond Investing in a 2%World

If there isn't a fund or ETF implementing the strategy, I don't see how it's useful to the vast majority of us.
by Avo
Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice to help with Mom's porfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 606

Re: Need advice to help with Mom's porfolio

The FA makes trades without asking my sister (who is POA). I think this needs to stop. Thoughts? Yes, immediately have your sister stop all trading. Then get a list of what is in the account and (if this is not an IRA or similar tax-advantaged account) the cost basis for everything. Also, make sure...
by Avo
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I Lost My FInancial Brain - Please Help
Replies: 85
Views: 10771

Re: I Lost My FInancial Brain - Please Help

5) he has laid out several parts of a detailed portfolio for rest of it, the result of it is I will have same income I have now, for life, AND still preserve everything or nearly everything, to pass on to the kids, because these are EXTREMELY safe holdings. Please let us review these! There are exc...
by Avo
Fri Feb 05, 2016 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3670

Re: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio

Be aware that the above is not standard boglehead advice, which is to hold taxable bonds (e.g., total bond market) in qualified accounts before using munis: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principles_of_tax-efficient_fund_placement Also, read this on muni safety: http://blog.aarp.org/2015/07/14/4-re...
by Avo
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3670

Re: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio

@Avo - makes sense, and thanks for the link. I kind of don't like that the NY 529 invests in similar/same index funds that I will be investing in outside of my 529's. Does that sound crazy? I kinda have similar feelings about Utah's. Yes, it's crazy. :D Total-market index funds already offer maximu...
by Avo
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3670

Re: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio

@mcraepat9 - re 529: Short story, because its what he recommended. I never have lived in Colorado. Longer: I think was because stability in fund manager and low fees. I compared it to NY 529 via https://scholarschoice.myleggmason.com/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=55297&topnav=TN_TOOLS&...
by Avo
Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3670

Re: Leaving FA, plz help review new portfolio

Welcome to the forum! You have suffered a great loss, sincere condolences. I'm not one of the real experts here, so these are just a few brief comments. Your 3-fund portfolio is fine. Vanguard total bond is fine, except for tax issues for non-qualified accounts. Not everyone agrees, but I would put ...
by Avo
Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Specific Glide Paths
Replies: 5
Views: 771

Re: Asset Specific Glide Paths

I'm not one of the real experts here, but some questions that spring to mind: Why eliminate intl enitrely? Historically it lowers risk to hold some fraction in intl. Similarly, it might be better to cut back further on equity fraction and keep the tilts, since your biggest enemy is left-tail risk. T...
by Avo
Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Confounding Bias for Investment Complexity
Replies: 22
Views: 3145

Re: Hsu - Investing Complexity | Timing Poorly [Behavioral Finance]

Their discussion of complexity fits my own experience (back in my pre-boglehead days) of trying to pick the best mutual funds: you never know when to sell an underperformer, and are likely to do it at the wrong time. But I don't understand their claim on the value premium. They study investor return...
by Avo
Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls
Replies: 9
Views: 1664

Re: Issues with Investment Advisor...Help Pls

What do you expect an advisor to do for you that you can't do for yourself?
by Avo
Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?
Replies: 33
Views: 4711

Re: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?

Avo: If you're going to quote a post, then quote it accurately. What was inaccurate about it? I did leave out stuff like "I found this transcript on the Yale website", but Swenson's words and the date he said them were perfectly correct. Secondly, your graph spans a relatively short time ...
by Avo
Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?
Replies: 33
Views: 4711

Re: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?

Swensen suggested an asset allocation for individual investors in his May 22, 2009 WealthTrack interview. "I think I would probably put some more in emerging markets. Maybe move that from 5 to10 and take the REITs and move it from 20 to 15." Well that didn't work out very well so far: htt...
by Avo
Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this article accurate? I sure hope not...
Replies: 34
Views: 17378

Re: Is this article accurate? I sure hope not...

So 2 of his last 24 crash predictions have come true? Well I didn't go back far enough. Davidson has actually been predicting a disastrous crash since (at least) the 1980's. Here's a 1987 review of his (then new) book "Blood in the Streets: Investment profits in a world gone mad": https:/...
by Avo
Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this article accurate? I sure hope not...
Replies: 34
Views: 17378

Re: Is this article accurate? I sure hope not...

"Famed economist" James Dale Davidson has been predicting a disastrous crash since the early 1990s.
by Avo
Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 86
Views: 10040

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

I always have the urge to change my investment plan so as to sell underperforming assets and buy overperforming ones. It always seems so rational! There's always such a good reason to do it! It's taken me decades to figure out that these urges are nothing but lizard-brain emotional attempts to avoid...
by Avo
Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellesley (VWIAX) vs CD for reliable income
Replies: 15
Views: 5493

Re: Wellesley (VWIAX) vs CD for reliable income

Wellesley declined by 20% during the financial crisis. Would that bother you?
by Avo
Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation question - change now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1532

Re: Allocation question - change now?

The best idea is to make a plan and then stick to it. Example: rebalance at specific times (quarterly or yearly). Example: rebalance when one asset is 5% too high or 5% too low (as a percentage of total invested assets). Trying to guess whether or not this is a "good time" to rebalance wil...
by Avo
Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 6052

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

In case of IT failures.... we can use our statements and telephones. Sure, if their phone system still works. And if it's not busy because millions of other people are calling. How many weeks/months/ years might it take to get it all straightened out?? I'm not going to argue with someone who says, ...
by Avo
Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3092
Views: 1948767

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

It reduces your need to take risk, but increases your ability to take risk. That means it becomes more of a personal choice.
by Avo
Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 6052

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

The thing I worry the most about is IT issues. What if someone does a Sony-style hack on Vanguard? We really have no idea how well prepared any one company is for an event like this.
by Avo
Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching strategies and general thoughts
Replies: 6
Views: 1102

Re: Switching strategies and general thoughts

OP, yu should read the thread linked by jebmke for more info, but the bottom line is that there is no reason (from either theory or history) to believe that dividend-paying stocks will outperform the total market on a total-return basis in tax-advantaged accounts (and total return is what you get), ...
by Avo
Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $50K to Trad IRA or Roth IRA? (or somewhere else?)
Replies: 16
Views: 1373

Re: Where to put $50K

Welcome to the forum, I'm sorry you didn't get any replies yet. I think your title is the reason why. The answer to "Where to put $X" is always the same: invest it according to your investment plan. People here get tired of saying that over and over. If you retitle something like "Reg...
by Avo
Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxact breached as well - just saw an article in wsj
Replies: 35
Views: 5378

Re: Taxact breached as well - just saw an article in wsj

Personally, I go one step farther and refuse to use an online service for my tax return. But I also make sure that my banking logins are segregated from my logins for everything else. This. I use H&R Block software (before last year, TurboTax) to prepare and file paper returns. (Of course, if t...
by Avo
Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Stock Help
Replies: 3
Views: 550

Re: Individual Stock Help

Sell both on Monday, put the proceeds in a Total Market index fund (US, International, or World, your choice!), take the losses on your 2016 tax return, and never look back. Do something else for fun!
:sharebeer