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Avo

Annuities within retirement accounts are almost always a bad idea. They almost always have unacceptably high costs with no added benefit.

You can get much more meaningful help here if you provide complete info in this format:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212

Avo

It would also be logical, on the basis of expected return, to go for the following deal:

Flip a coin. Heads, you double your money, plus 10%. Tails, you lose everything.

But I doubt you would take it ...

Avo

I don't hold bonds because of fear, I hold them because I want to narrow the range of probable outcomes.

Investing on the basis of expected value alone can result in a nasty surprise when you go to open that vault.

Avo

The reason most of us don't do this at age 40 is that we want to retire at age 65, and we worry that it might be 1907 ...

Avo

Trustee-to-trustee transfers (which is how you should do it) are not limited to one per year:

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/ir ... -year-rule

Avo

Or, just do this: "age in bonds": 40% in a total bond market index fund (FSITX at Fidelity or VBTLX at Vanguard) and 60% in a total stock market index (FSTVX at Fidelity or VTSAX at Vanguard). I have listed the ticker symbols of the "premium" class (at Fideltiy) or "admiral&...

Avo

Welcome to the forum. Your upfront fees are gone. I'm sorry to say that they bought you nothing of value. You are continuing to pay overly high expense ratios on the funds themselves. I would transfer the whole thing in-kind to Vanguard or Fidelity (not sure which would be easier or cheaper for liqu...

Avo

Fidelity Contrafund started in 1990, run by then unknown manager Will Danoff. The hot Fidelity fund at that time was Magellan, managed by the legendary Peter Lynch (who was about to retire, turning Magellan over to a new manager). Anyone with any sense in 1990 would buy Magellan, not Contrafund. Sur...

Avo

If I was going to pay an advisor an AUM fee (which I would never ever do), I would find one who uses DFA funds:

https://us.dimensional.com/individuals

Avo

I have dropped 457 contributions to the minimum ... since I believe my tax bracket with never be lower than now, and taxes right now are very minimal. This is not the correct comparison! The 457 eliminates taxes on earnings that still have to be paid in a taxable account (eg capital gains taxes).

Avo

Petrocelli wrote:For example, I bought my wife a Rolex in 1988 for $2000. That watch new now costs about $8,000 and I could probably sell it for around $4,000 to $5,000.

And have you had it serviced regularly? If so, how much did that cost? And if not, I doubt you could sell it for 4K.

Avo

Here's another example of how hard it is to pick the stock pickers to follow. Back in the 90s, asset management firm Litman Gregory had a newsletter recommending various actively managed funds. Their belief was that the best fund managers did have some good picks that boosted their funds, but after ...

Avo

Wow, what a mess. What on earth is the reason for all those different intl funds? Makes no sense.

I like a lot of what DFA does, but not this portfolio. I would sell everything if it were mine.

Avo

That doesn't help against ID theft: if a false return is filed, it will (falsely!) claim a refund.

Avo

What’s Wrong with Multiplying by the Square Root of Twelve which seems to explain the problem, but I have trouble making sense of the correct formula: http://i65.tinypic.com/11gredy.png What I don't understand is how to get "Mm" which is defined as the expected value of monthly returns . ...

Avo

But is advice for a doctor (white coat) any different than a blue collar (shop mechanic) worker? No, except doctors tend to have higher incomes (and hence tax issues can play a more significant role), they can have special concerns such as malpractice insurance, they are often self-employed, and th...

Avo

This was the first time I entered the contest, and I made a rookie mistake: I picked 2222.22. Thought it was cute. But so did five other entrants! :oops: So if I win, I have to split the prize 6 ways. :( That's gonna seriously impact the scale of my victory party. Next year, I'm goin' with a random ...

Avo

Well since their pensions and SS significantly exceed their needs (if I have followed correctly here), then it doesn't matter how the rest is invested. It can be ultraconservative (if they don't want to lose principal), or ultra aggressive (if they want to maximize expected return for heirs, risk be...

Avo

So is it possible that the historical outperformance of small-cap indices simply reflects a return of the historically higher costs needed to buy a sufficiently diversified basket of small caps? Kind of like a sale where "We pay the sales tax!" Surely this has been studied in the academic ...

Avo

I disagree. I just checked Vanguard Explorer and T Rowe Price New Horizons, two well known actively managed small cap funds that were available in 1979, and they were comparable to NAESX over the next 10 years, and well below the M* small-blend "average". I wasn't able to buy the in-hindsi...

Avo

So do you know of a better vehicle for small caps that was actually available for purchase by retail investors?

If not, I claim this is the correct comparison. It's what actual investors could have actually gotten. The indices are vaporware.

Avo

If we compare performance using funds that were actually available to cost-sensitive investors, large caps have outperformed small caps since 1/1/1979. Below is the chart of the Vanguard small-cap fund NAESX vs their SP500 fund, VFINX:

Avo

Here is all the advice you need right now. TSP: put everything into the L2050 fund. Outside savings: put it all in an online bank account (eg Ally) yielding 1% or so. Next: figure out what your goals for the outside savings are. Buy a house? Fund a kid's college? Have an emergency fund (always a goo...

Avo

The agent has been managing my wife's funds for years, with happy results, actually. You won't know how happy the results were unless you compare to an appropriate benchmark of index funds in the same asset classes (taking into account timing of deposits and withdrawals, if any). Of course it is po...

Avo

The "permanent portfolio" has been discussed extensively by bogleheads. 2014 blog post by LadyGeek (with links to extensive prior discussions): https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/harry-brownes-permanent-portfolio/ 2010 article by William Bernstein: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/h...

Avo

If there isn't a fund or ETF implementing the strategy, I don't see how it's useful to the vast majority of us.

Avo

The FA makes trades without asking my sister (who is POA). I think this needs to stop. Thoughts? Yes, immediately have your sister stop all trading. Then get a list of what is in the account and (if this is not an IRA or similar tax-advantaged account) the cost basis for everything. Also, make sure...

Avo

5) he has laid out several parts of a detailed portfolio for rest of it, the result of it is I will have same income I have now, for life, AND still preserve everything or nearly everything, to pass on to the kids, because these are EXTREMELY safe holdings. Please let us review these! There are exc...

Avo

Be aware that the above is not standard boglehead advice, which is to hold taxable bonds (e.g., total bond market) in qualified accounts before using munis: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principles_of_tax-efficient_fund_placement Also, read this on muni safety: http://blog.aarp.org/2015/07/14/4-re...

Avo

@Avo - makes sense, and thanks for the link. I kind of don't like that the NY 529 invests in similar/same index funds that I will be investing in outside of my 529's. Does that sound crazy? I kinda have similar feelings about Utah's. Yes, it's crazy. :D Total-market index funds already offer maximu...

Avo

@mcraepat9 - re 529: Short story, because its what he recommended. I never have lived in Colorado. Longer: I think was because stability in fund manager and low fees. I compared it to NY 529 via https://scholarschoice.myleggmason.com/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=55297&topnav=TN_TOOLS&...

Avo

Welcome to the forum! You have suffered a great loss, sincere condolences. I'm not one of the real experts here, so these are just a few brief comments. Your 3-fund portfolio is fine. Vanguard total bond is fine, except for tax issues for non-qualified accounts. Not everyone agrees, but I would put ...

Avo

I'm not one of the real experts here, but some questions that spring to mind: Why eliminate intl enitrely? Historically it lowers risk to hold some fraction in intl. Similarly, it might be better to cut back further on equity fraction and keep the tilts, since your biggest enemy is left-tail risk. T...

Avo

Their discussion of complexity fits my own experience (back in my pre-boglehead days) of trying to pick the best mutual funds: you never know when to sell an underperformer, and are likely to do it at the wrong time. But I don't understand their claim on the value premium. They study investor return...

Avo

What do you expect an advisor to do for you that you can't do for yourself?

Avo

tl;dw

Avo

Avo: If you're going to quote a post, then quote it accurately. What was inaccurate about it? I did leave out stuff like "I found this transcript on the Yale website", but Swenson's words and the date he said them were perfectly correct. Secondly, your graph spans a relatively short time ...

Avo

Swensen suggested an asset allocation for individual investors in his May 22, 2009 WealthTrack interview. "I think I would probably put some more in emerging markets. Maybe move that from 5 to10 and take the REITs and move it from 20 to 15." Well that didn't work out very well so far: htt...

Avo

So 2 of his last 24 crash predictions have come true? Well I didn't go back far enough. Davidson has actually been predicting a disastrous crash since (at least) the 1980's. Here's a 1987 review of his (then new) book "Blood in the Streets: Investment profits in a world gone mad": https:/...

Avo

"Famed economist" James Dale Davidson has been predicting a disastrous crash since the early 1990s.

Avo

I always have the urge to change my investment plan so as to sell underperforming assets and buy overperforming ones. It always seems so rational! There's always such a good reason to do it! It's taken me decades to figure out that these urges are nothing but lizard-brain emotional attempts to avoid...

Avo

Wellesley declined by 20% during the financial crisis. Would that bother you?

Avo

The best idea is to make a plan and then stick to it. Example: rebalance at specific times (quarterly or yearly). Example: rebalance when one asset is 5% too high or 5% too low (as a percentage of total invested assets). Trying to guess whether or not this is a "good time" to rebalance wil...

Avo

In case of IT failures.... we can use our statements and telephones. Sure, if their phone system still works. And if it's not busy because millions of other people are calling. How many weeks/months/ years might it take to get it all straightened out?? I'm not going to argue with someone who says, ...

Avo

It reduces your need to take risk, but increases your ability to take risk. That means it becomes more of a personal choice.

Avo

The thing I worry the most about is IT issues. What if someone does a Sony-style hack on Vanguard? We really have no idea how well prepared any one company is for an event like this.

Avo

OP, yu should read the thread linked by jebmke for more info, but the bottom line is that there is no reason (from either theory or history) to believe that dividend-paying stocks will outperform the total market on a total-return basis in tax-advantaged accounts (and total return is what you get), ...

Avo

Welcome to the forum, I'm sorry you didn't get any replies yet. I think your title is the reason why. The answer to "Where to put $X" is always the same: invest it according to your investment plan. People here get tired of saying that over and over. If you retitle something like "Reg...

Avo

Personally, I go one step farther and refuse to use an online service for my tax return. But I also make sure that my banking logins are segregated from my logins for everything else. This. I use H&R Block software (before last year, TurboTax) to prepare and file paper returns. (Of course, if t...

Avo

Sell both on Monday, put the proceeds in a Total Market index fund (US, International, or World, your choice!), take the losses on your 2016 tax return, and never look back. Do something else for fun!

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