Search found 1090 matches

by Avo
Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Will Bill Miller Rise from the Ashes?"
Replies: 41
Views: 7717

Even numerous investors in these 2 "solid" funds below have had their faith shaken hard enough that they can no longer stand to hold on: DODGX: -16.20% / -23.58% (Dodge & Cox Stock) TAVFX: -19.49% / -22.27% (Third Avenue Value) Over the past ten years, DODGX and TAVFX (which I've held...
by Avo
Sat Jul 19, 2008 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gave a guy a personal loan, now he's not paying me back...
Replies: 127
Views: 25773

ataloss wrote:I think simple interest loans are unusual but I don't see any miscalculation
The calculation would be correct only if the total sum owed were paid at the end of the three years (and not in monthly installments during the three-year period).
by Avo
Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In case we were to suddenly die...
Replies: 13
Views: 3097

rwwoods wrote:Sorry Avo, but you are wrong. Accounts will be frozen only if no benficiaries have been identified.
You're right. But in general, when you open a bank account or mutual fund account (that's not an IRA), you are not asked to name a beneficiary. So you have to make a special effort to do so.
by Avo
Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gave a guy a personal loan, now he's not paying me back...
Replies: 127
Views: 25773

kyuss wrote:Did the Notary even read the contract?
Notaries never read contracts. Their role is simply to verify the identities of the people signing.
by Avo
Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In case we were to suddenly die...
Replies: 13
Views: 3097

Re: In case we were to suddenly die...

If you don't have a living trust, and your sons are not co-owners of the accounts, all your accounts will be frozen after the 2nd of you dies, and what happens to the assets will be determined by a court. If you lived in the US, the court would be the probate court for the state in which you lived. ...
by Avo
Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scott Burns' article on oil vs. the USA
Replies: 48
Views: 9677

That's why next generation will ask: "What were they thinking." We've been thinking that way for a long time now. Jimmy Carter tried to get us to move away from oil; as a symbol, he put solar panels on the White House. Ronald Reagan won the next election in a landslide, and took the panel...
by Avo
Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scott Burns' article on oil vs. the USA
Replies: 48
Views: 9677

That the value of the US is about equal to the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia and Iran sounds about right to me (rather than completely ridiculous, as the author implies). Without energy, all the technological innovation of the past 30 years is completely useless. The world appears to be enteri...
by Avo
Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity style rotation
Replies: 550
Views: 182253

In case anyone is still reading this thread, I have been working with a mathematician in regards to how many asset classes to use at one time. To my surprise, the number of asset classes that works the best is actually 6, instead of the 8 I have been using. ... The switch to six positions is the fi...
by Avo
Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity style rotation
Replies: 550
Views: 182253

Avo, I though this thread is interesting too but your frustration is not your fault, I am quite confused too. ES has just recently changed his system to holding 6 styles from 8. And he's added 2 styles to my list of 15 (which was the total number he said he followed earlier). And there's also REITs...
by Avo
Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity style rotation
Replies: 550
Views: 182253

OK, so let me see if I've got this. IIUC, you use these styles:

domestic stock:
LG, LV, MG, MV, SG, SV, convertibles

international stock:
LG, LV, SG, SV, EM

domestic bond:
total bond index

international bond:
oppenheimer fund

commodities:
dow index

Is this list correct?

Thanks!
Avo
by Avo
Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity style rotation
Replies: 550
Views: 182253

As you already derived, dominant means the best returns over the past 6 months. OK, good! That's easy enough. Now, can you list the ticker symbols for the funds (or indices or whatever) that you use as benchmarks for each style that you track? (I'm asking all these details because I really am inter...
by Avo
Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity style rotation
Replies: 550
Views: 182253

I first divide up the market into style groups. I then use ETF's to find which styles are dominant. What is the definiton of "dominant"? Is it "best percentage gain over the past six months", or something else? After I have established the 6 most dominant styles, I search for th...
by Avo
Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity style rotation
Replies: 550
Views: 182253

I recently discovered this thread, which is quite interesting. Here is a publicly available academic paper that supports the notion of equity style rotation as a robust technique: http://www.fsa.ulaval.ca/nfa2003/papiers/Kevin%20Wang.pdf Equity Style, I'm somewhat frustrated because I haven't found ...
by Avo
Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next bubble identified (not oil), and a Question?
Replies: 45
Views: 7890

Re: P O

It's hilarious (or sad, depending on your mood) that p*** o** is not an allowed topic here at bogleheads, since the worldwide oil supply-demand situation is going to be a key driver for the performance of stocks for the forseeable future.
by Avo
Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living trust questions
Replies: 15
Views: 4276

Thanks to all who replied; you've been very helpful. Concerning the trustee issue, I was the sole trustee when the trust was created (just a few months ago); at that point in time, my father was no longer capable of handling his finances, and willingly gave full authority to me. So, in my case, ther...
by Avo
Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil dependency
Replies: 31
Views: 5274

One fact about Brazil that never seems to get mentioned is that the amount of motor fuel per capita that they use is about 10% of what is used in the US. So, if the US wants to emulate Brazil, step one is to cut motor fuel use by 90%. Then we can discuss what the makeup of the remaining 10% should be.
by Avo
Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living trust questions
Replies: 15
Views: 4276

Thanks everyone. I will skip moving the trust to the new tax id. For some reason the bank insisted on doing this way, but that doesn't seem to be the norm.

I'm sure I'll be learning a lot more in the days and weeks ahead. It really seems that dying ought to be simpler than this ...
by Avo
Sun Jul 06, 2008 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living trust questions
Replies: 15
Views: 4276

Re: Trustee changes

Thanks Glenn. I'm reluctant to re-register the bonds, because the only way to do it is to send them by mail to a PO box in West Virginia. I did this once, and it was all fine, but I definitely had qualms about dropping off an envelope containing papers worth six figures ... I went to Borders and loo...
by Avo
Sat Jul 05, 2008 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

It seems my timing on selling half my VGENX was in agreement with Richard Rainwater, someone who was smart enough to buy in much earlier. He also makes a comment relevant to the current debate here on the role of speculation: http://time-blog.com/curious_capitalist/2008/06/richard_rainwater_turns_be...
by Avo
Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living trust questions
Replies: 15
Views: 4276

Living trust questions

I can't see my lawyer until Friday, so I'm hoping I can get a preliminary answer from knowledgeable bogleheads ... My father passed away a few days ago. I am his only child and sole heir. He had a living trust that was set up just a few months ago that used his social-security number as the tax id n...
by Avo
Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

A cogent and well-documented rebuttal to Birger: http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2008/07/366-futures-prices-determine-physical.html The key point appears to be that the amount of benchmark crudes (WTI and Brent) is quite small, making price discovery difficult, leading to spot pricing that is ac...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Investor's Dilemma Book
Replies: 7
Views: 2094

Well, according to the material at amazon, he trashes the mutual fund industry, but then praises the Wintergreen and Fairholme funds. Wintergreen has 1.85% expense ratio and nearly 10% of its assets in a Japanese tobacco company.
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

I recently went from 43 to 41% energy! Well, that's more in line with what I think is most appropriate. But I've been wrong too often in the past on this sort of thing. The risks of a recession and consequent oil demand destruction, fear in the market of punitive taxes from the Obama administration...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

Well, we'll find out. I recently went from an AA of 20% VGENX to 10% to hedge the risk that oil company prices are headed down, short term. So far that's been an unprofitable decision.
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

Yes, I did read that particular article plus many others including this one: Oil bubble You're quoting from the middle of the article, where he's setting up a hypothetical. Here's the conclusion: "But of course, saying this is all caused by the futures speculation is quite inaccurate. If this ...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

Another good article on this subject has just appeared in The New Yorker: Oily Speculations
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

I hear lots of "it can't be, it doesn't agree with my theories or love of totally unregulated markets" from the denialists. OptionAl, your arguments are simply not on point. It just doesn't matter if the amount invested in futures contracts has risen from this number to that number. It se...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

How big a contribution could oil speculation be making? Bob, did you read what you linked to? The conclusion of Professor Hamilton is that speculation is not making a very big contribution. I'm a big fan of Jim Hamilton's blog. I started reading it three years ago when he was a passionate defender ...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

[During the last five years, after a series of company mergers (like exxon and mobil) I said to myself: Finally, you guys can now stop competing by bringing all this supply to market, and stop spending so much on discovering new oil. Get the prices up. It has finally happened. I don't think it's qu...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33518

What is opinion on this guy's views, he is pushing the speculation angle. dothemontecarlo and retired_at_48 have cogently presented the argument against speculation as a driving force in the current price. FWIW, I agree with them. The guy you cite is apparently a cornucopian, someone who believes t...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fundadvice.com and Paul Merriman
Replies: 30
Views: 11134

I'm actually sorry to see Merriman backing away from their advocacy of market timing. Their articles on the subject are quite worth reading, IMO. One point they make is that anyone who ever tries to do anything like "buy on weakness" is engaging in market timing. And, they say, if you're g...
by Avo
Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1505
Views: 736558

Well, we've gotten off-topic here.

market_timer, I wish you every success and hope the current downturn ends soon so that you can get back into a better comfort zone.
by Avo
Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fundadvice.com and Paul Merriman
Replies: 30
Views: 11134

Merriman's articles on market timing are still available at his site, though they are no longer linked from the home page: http://www.fundadvice.com/articles/market-timing.html
by Avo
Sun Jun 29, 2008 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1505
Views: 736558

Everything Gregory says is true, but the distinction is hardly ever made in practice. For example, last October the headline in the New York Times read "3 Americans to Share Nobel Prize in Economics", and the article began "The Nobel Prize in economics was awarded today to three Ameri...
by Avo
Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fundadvice.com and Paul Merriman
Replies: 30
Views: 11134

Way back in the early 80s, Merriman was a pure market timer. IIRC, that was his whole business: selling timing signals, or directly managing money with timing.
by Avo
Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VG Energy - time to hop off?
Replies: 19
Views: 4135

I was 20% in VGENX and went down to 10% today (tax free account). I think oil prices are headed much higher long term, but there are many short-term issues that could lead to sharply lower prices for a while. So, I thought about how I would feel if VGENX (a) doubled from here, or (b) halved from her...
by Avo
Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Freedom Fund or UC Pathway Fund
Replies: 6
Views: 3304

I'm also a UC employee, and the Pathway funds are definitely a better way to go than Fidelity Freedom.
by Avo
Fri Jun 13, 2008 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's not Panic on Oil Prices
Replies: 56
Views: 12388

Ultimately when [fossil fuels] run out, our descendants will have to rely on biomass to cook and to stay warm in cold areas and on draft animals for land transport and wind power for water transport, very little different from the 17th century. Well, maybe. But there's no reason in principle that w...
by Avo
Thu Jun 12, 2008 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's not Panic on Oil Prices
Replies: 56
Views: 12388

I'm not panicking, I have about 20% of my equity investments in VGENX.
by Avo
Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Arguments Do Anti-Indexers Make Against Indexing?
Replies: 95
Views: 15923

I'm new here, and thought I would take a stab at answering the OP's question. I have both index funds and actively managed funds. In the late 90s, I was looking around for funds to invest in. I was worried about a possible bear market, and wanted value-oriented funds. After much research, I selected...