Search found 27469 matches

by dbr
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past result is not an indicator for future performance
Replies: 29
Views: 2034

Re: Past result is not an indicator for future performance

okay, i can digest the diversification part. I saw some BHs comments that they are content with the certainty of outcome of index fund 20-year down the road. Isn't that misleading too? As I tried to explain before, there is no certainty in the outcome anyone will actually get. Time diversification ...
by dbr
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA question about income required before age 70 SSI
Replies: 9
Views: 609

Re: AA question about income required before age 70 SSI

Unless you are going to spend a large fraction of your total assets in those four years you don't need to do anything special. The 40% in bonds already manages any possible issue with low stock returns. What fraction of your assets are you planning to spend in that period? Also, don't forget that un...
by dbr
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does such a SS income estimate calculator exist?
Replies: 7
Views: 522

Re: Does such a SS income estimate calculator exist?

If the above is not sufficient there is also a downloadable calculator, ANYPIA: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/anypia/anypia.html
by dbr
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too many credit cards?
Replies: 54
Views: 2813

Re: Too many credit cards?

The thought is that three cards is not very many. As you have learned and others mention at least two is sort of a necessary number to be functional in out economy or about anywhere in the world really. There are even places here and there where you can't use cash. This has nothing to do with reward...
by dbr
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past result is not an indicator for future performance
Replies: 29
Views: 2034

Re: Past result is not an indicator for future performance

That mantra should probably be banned because it is too simplistic even if it contains a valid warning. A most important point in this is that investment returns are highly variable and you are going to get only one outcome out of a wide range of possible outcomes. Even if the mean return of your in...
by dbr
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Embarrassed to ask... dividends and Total Return
Replies: 39
Views: 4730

Re: Embarrassed to ask... dividends and Total Return

One thing that has perhaps been implied but not explicitly stated is: reinvesting the dividend maintains your same position in the fund as before the dividend; pocketing the dividend lowers your position while giving you extra cash, as if you has sold shares of that value. You have 100 shares of a ...
by dbr
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?
Replies: 81
Views: 6253

Re: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?

Being happy with a cold winter opens up huge opportunities in all the other categories. Not being happy with a cold winter puts you in a much smaller box with a lot of disadvantages including that nobody goes those places any more because they are all too crowded. There is also a fine line between b...
by dbr
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need a little insight from STEM Bogleheads
Replies: 59
Views: 2670

Re: Need a little insight from STEM Bogleheads

If she dreads teaching HS after a few years maybe teaching is not her thing. Teaching young people is a more about how one interacts with those creatures than it is about the content.

I am with those who would suggest looking at industrial/commercial/government employment with a masters in math.
by dbr
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Income-CDs, Brokered CDs, T-bonds & bills
Replies: 11
Views: 1185

Re: Fixed Income-CDs, Brokered CDs, T-bonds & bills

It isn't clear what your plan for income is. Do the yield numbers you quote mean that you have enough if you can withdraw somewhere between $20,000 and $30,000 from every $1,000,000 of your assets every year. If so, as livesoft says, you can do about anything, including spending some of the principa...
by dbr
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Military Retirement = Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS)? Does this change the way I allocate?
Replies: 20
Views: 1333

Re: Military Retirement = Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS)? Does this change the way I allocate?

As an overall concept for thinking about things financial I suggest that it is a better idea to think about what things are rather than think about what things are "like." In this case income is income and assets are assets so that military income is not "like" TIPS. Several posters have suggested t...
by dbr
Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best brokerage for TIPS?
Replies: 7
Views: 520

Re: Best brokerage for TIPS?

An option is to hold a TIPS fund. This sort of issue is one of the practical reasons why holding a fund can be sensible. I know people sometimes have decided individual TIPS are what is wanted.
by dbr
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2374

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

I can't help but feel that people here have an odd reaction to focusing on mutual fund distributions / portfolio yield. That is because you have never made clear your purpose in creating this model, or forecast, if you will. Assume a hypothetical 30 year old windfall recipient ("John") received a $...
by dbr
Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Question
Replies: 26
Views: 1587

Re: TIPS Question

dbr, regarding ibonds, I see that I can buy up to $10,000 electronic per year plus up to $5,000 paper (total $15,000 limit per year). The estimated tax payment for Q4 is due January 15th. So, I can make another payment now to Treasury in order to ensure my refund for the 2018 tax year is at least $...
by dbr
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being ripped off in my 401k? (Good Vanguard funds available but fees seem questionable)
Replies: 22
Views: 1960

Re: Am I being ripped off in my 401k? (Good Vanguard funds available but fees seem questionable)

Your 401k administrator is required to send you a notice of fees. I forget how often they have to issue this, but you should see something. Is there a chance you got a letter and didn't notice what it was?
by dbr
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Question
Replies: 26
Views: 1587

Re: TIPS Question

In this specific transaction, is the execution better with Schwab than Vanguard? You read my mind. I'd like to know that also. And another question: Would an investor invest in a TIPS fund rather than a bond fund to minimize the swings in value, and accept lower earnings in exchange? No because a T...
by dbr
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation in multiple accounts for retirees
Replies: 21
Views: 1368

Re: Asset allocation in multiple accounts for retirees

Wouldn't having solely bonds in a pre-tax account eventually bite you in the butt come RMD's withdrawl time, since they will still be taxed as ordinary income which will have increased because of added income from the RMD's? Having anything in a tax deferred account eventually produces a tax cost a...
by dbr
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: United, American Airlines, Delta--about the same?
Replies: 144
Views: 7770

Re: United, American, Delta--about the same?

I think your concerns should probably not center on which airline broadly to choose but rather: 1. Number of stops and where you are connecting. Some connecting cities can be plagued by weather problems both winter or summer. SFO and DFW are possible problems, as well as Chicago. East coast airports...
by dbr
Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 7% guaranteed return fund in 403b
Replies: 23
Views: 2935

Re: 7% guaranteed return fund in 403b

A question dawned on me today. If I were to contribute a large part ($19,000 a year and more in the future) to my 403b in the 7% guaranteed return fund for the next decade or two, would I even need to allocate my portfolio to include bonds or stable funds in the future? The 403b would be about 45% ...
by dbr
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2374

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

As far as a good tool for tracking dividends, distributions, cap gains wouldn't looking at a monthly brokerage statement like at Vanguard do the job. Under my statement they list estimated annual income for each fund or security. My rep at VG tells me that this is a reverse look only so would not a...
by dbr
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2374

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

Go to the Backtest Portfolio section of Portfolio Visualizer. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio Change the "Display Income" option to Yes. That will bring up an option right below it for "Reinvest Dividends." Select No for that. Then just enter whatever funds you want to backte...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2048

Re: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?

I don't think the specific choice of VBMFX is important. I think any generally diverse, low cost bond fund of intermediate duration does as well. I also don't think one can find a magic number for the allocation to international stocks either. But this again goes to the fact that there are many good...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me to Understand Bonds Please.
Replies: 19
Views: 1469

Re: Help Me to Understand Bonds Please.

If you run FireCalc with a $10,000 annual contribution for twenty years and compare investing 100% in total stock to investing 50/50 total stock to five year bonds, then you can look at the results for periods starting in each of 128 years starting in 1871. Of these 128 periods the 50/50 portfolio w...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2048

Re: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?

In the area of investment planning "best" tends not to be a useful criterion.
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare CD to Bond fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1064

Re: How to compare CD to Bond fund

If you are a long term investor with assets in both stocks and bonds, then prospectively there isn't enough difference between two investments like those to make sense of asking which is best, at least not from the point of view of risk and return. Naturally the differences that do exist can be cons...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2623

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

There is a tangle of issues here: 1. If you are going to hire an advisor to handle your wealth, then what is the point of questioning what they recommend? Or, the back side of the coin, if you are going to learn enough to evaluate what they are doing, you can do it yourself and save what you are pa...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two years from retirement - what's more important?
Replies: 57
Views: 2596

Re: Two years from retirement - what's more important?

Preservation of capital and maximization of return is a false dichotomy. By definition maximization of return results in maximization of capital, so the question doesn't even make sense stated that way. What you are really asking is how much risk to take in your investments. Risk in this case means ...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2623

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

There is a tangle of issues here: 1. If you are going to hire an advisor to handle your wealth, then what is the point of questioning what they recommend? Or, the back side of the coin, if you are going to learn enough to evaluate what they are doing, you can do it yourself and save what you are pay...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just what is long-term investing?
Replies: 13
Views: 773

Re: Just what is long-term investing?

I don't think it has anything to do with a particular span in years. What it does have to do with is tolerance for uncertainty. An important point is that there is no such thing as time diversification. That is, investing outcome does not become more certain over time. Variation in annual results co...
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth projection percentage (6%?) and young retirement withdrawl rate (4%?)
Replies: 16
Views: 993

Re: Growth projection percentage (6%?) and young retirement withdrawl rate (4%?)

Your plan should not forget that you can't expect to get the expected return.
by dbr
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Investing Risk
Replies: 18
Views: 1455

Re: Total Investing Risk

The confusion or dilemma in this discussion is that risk is not a thing. Risk of something is a thing though. What risk means is the chance and degree of that something occurring. So in conventional finance risk is the chance of (annual) returns varying from year to year. A measure of that, among se...
by dbr
Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Compact SUV Should I Buy?
Replies: 177
Views: 9272

Re: Which Compact SUV Should I Buy?

The raised stance of SUVs is, in almost every case, simply to provide the appearance of being utilitarian (like a truck). That raised center of gravity means worse acceleration, handling, braking, gas mileage, and (usually) space, with literally no benefit whatsoever. Wagons, like minivans, are jus...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Using less plastic
Replies: 69
Views: 1855

Re: Using less plastic

A paper cup takes more energy, raw material and money to make than a Styrofoam cup. Yep, we should not be using paper cups either and we should not be washing things and dumping (heated) water, detergent, and whatever material was washed out down the drain. Drinking nothing but water would work for...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Using less plastic
Replies: 69
Views: 1855

Re: Using less plastic

The biggest use of consumer plastic is probably in packaging. Try to never buy anything that is packaged in plastic. That especially applies to blister packs and grocery containers. You can avoid some of this by shopping in bulk or at coops that don't use such packaging. Note the actual effect on ma...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RolloverCentral experiences
Replies: 6
Views: 277

Re: RolloverCentral experiences

Are you sure you even want to rollover your 401K? It can easily be the case that the 401K is as good or better a choice than an IRA. As far as IRA custodians are concerned probably one of the greatest rip off opportunities that exists is that of capturing 401K money that should have just stayed wher...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: keeping warm in outside windy, freezing temperature and also inside office
Replies: 35
Views: 2169

Re: keeping warm in outside windy, freezing temperature and also inside office

The rule is cotton is cold, wool is warm. I agree indoor/outdoor is always a dilemma whether cold outdoors/overheated indoors or hot outdoors/overcooled indoors. I wear the same fleece outwear both summer and winter because I can take it off indoors in the winter and put it on indoors in the summer....
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nicer Denver Areas
Replies: 19
Views: 2235

Re: Nicer Denver Areas

Probably downtown for that short a time. You could try here: https://www.brownpalace.com/ They play baseball downtown: https://www.mlb.com/rockies You can also go here: https://www.usmint.gov/about/mint-tours-facilities/denver/visiting-the-denver-mint and here (a short drive east): http://www.dmns.o...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fee Only Indep. advisor, Schwab or Vanguard?
Replies: 5
Views: 438

Re: Fee Only Indep. advisor, Schwab or Vanguard?

Vanguard also wants you to turn over your assets for management at a fee of 0.3% pa using their Personal Advisory Service. See: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=bogleheads.org&q=pas You may get some suggestions for hourly advisors that do not need to take assets under management, but that is...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quick question about "fixed" portion
Replies: 12
Views: 532

Re: Quick question about "fixed" portion

You'll also find where people say that their emergency funds, i.e. 6 months to 2 years of "cash", don't count in the ratio. I don't agree with that. I think most people count stocks and stock mutual funds as equity, and everything else as bonds, for purposes of determining their ratio. Yes, I think...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 3.5% possible over next 30 years
Replies: 45
Views: 7274

Re: Is 3.5% possible over next 30 years

If you want an illustration of what happens in the real world you can go run FireCalc and look at the chart it prints out of what happens to individual histories of portfolios starting in each of the historical years examined by the model. You can run a model that includes contributions, one that ha...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quick question about "fixed" portion
Replies: 12
Views: 532

Re: Quick question about "fixed" portion

There is a strange little semantics exercise that has to be played here where cash is bonds except when people really mean a bond and not cash or cash and not a bond. But the answer in the context of your question is that cash counts as part of bonds. The rationale is the division of the portfolio b...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Drop Stocks Altogether: Age Dependent Decision?
Replies: 23
Views: 1586

Re: Drop Stocks Altogether: Age Dependent Decision?

Well, it does make sense to be holding some stocks at age 75. It is a little short sighted to assume a life expectancy of 85 means it is impossible to live another twenty or twenty five years. Holding 30% in stocks leaves you at little danger of losing much if stocks decline but still gives some div...
by dbr
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating Annual Stock Returns Question
Replies: 3
Views: 157

Re: Calculating Annual Stock Returns Question

As you notice, a contribution isn't a return. See Beardstown Ladies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beardstown_Ladies But this case can be looked at a couple of different ways. You can consider the grant of 20 more shares to be income from employment, which it is, and then consider that income to be ...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay the Course! But...?
Replies: 11
Views: 1803

Re: Stay the Course! But...?

how do you know if the course you're staying on is the right course? If the course you've selected is wrong, despite your best efforts, how do you recognize that it isn't working and change direction? I would guess the answer might be when you recognize the present course you are on will probably n...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Budgeting
Replies: 10
Views: 1481

Re: Retirement Budgeting

Possibly a spreadsheet such as Excel or Google Sheets is very helpful. Whether or not that is free for you depends. I have never not had Excel installed on any computer I use. Secondly is already having a record of what you spend on stuff. You then modify that by estimating what will change when you...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dealing with capital loss on bond fund/etf
Replies: 8
Views: 507

Re: dealing with capital loss on bond fund/etf

Yep, don't buy things that can in fact lose value. Taking inflation into account, that does not leave much of anything to invest in. Do you also apply the same to stocks? If you don't mind taking risk in stocks, then objecting to any possibility if loss in bonds makes no sense, assuming you hold som...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Noise cancelling headphones for plane trips, advice?
Replies: 62
Views: 3010

Re: Noise cancelling headphones for plane trips, advice?

As pointed out plain old ear plugs are really good. I much prefer the wax ones that plug the outside though theoretically I suppose the foam ones that insert well into the ear canal are better. For noise cancelling ear phones the Bose over the ear are excellent though the last time I traveled the no...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: keeping warm in outside windy, freezing temperature and also inside office
Replies: 35
Views: 2169

Re: keeping warm in outside windy, freezing temperature and also inside office

The theory of layering is to always be able to add something over the top to get warmer and take something away from the top to get cooler. One should never feel a need to remove something from the inside. In case jeans with silk underneath is too warm and uncomfortable inside, the problem is actual...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: keeping warm in outside windy, freezing temperature and also inside office
Replies: 35
Views: 2169

Re: keeping warm in outside windy, freezing temperature and also inside office

Try adding windpants or even insulated outer pants over your jeans. You can take them off when you go indoors. I just wear jeans three season even to below zero temps for coming and going from indoor activities. I can't remember any occasion even at -30F that I would wear more in the pants departmen...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bond Fund's NAV rebound if I wait long enough?
Replies: 25
Views: 1972

Re: Will Bond Fund's NAV rebound if I wait long enough?

The price vs. returns chart on morning star really does take all the guess work out of it. For the intermediate treasury bond funder for the last 3 years, despite the decrease in price, $10k turned into $10,400 http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSIGX®ion=usa&culture=en_US Does tha...
by dbr
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to keep track of market
Replies: 24
Views: 1682

Re: Best place to keep track of market

iphone makes this (and everything) so easy Explain? Sure, as mentioned there are apps that can report market averages and the prices of everything you hold. Your phone is at hand so you can just take a peek every couple of minutes and be up to speed. It will be especially admired if you do this thr...