Search found 27152 matches

by dbr
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How often should I re-adjust the target allocations in my 4-fund portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 933

Re: How often should I re-adjust the target allocations in my 4-fund portfolio?

Targets should be adjusted when your need, ability, and willingness to take risk changes for good reasons. That does not preclude deciding that a glide path in your asset allocation is appropriate, but it certainly makes no sense trying to exactly track a particular target date fund. I don't even kn...
by dbr
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?
Replies: 29
Views: 1928

Re: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?

In his classic book, Common Sense on Mutual Funds, Mr. Bogle has a chart showing the real (after inflation) return of U.S. stocks since 1802. If we look closely, we can see that the real return of stocks has been quite volatile, but whenever they go up or down, they eventually return to the median....
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need an advisor
Replies: 33
Views: 2156

Re: Need an advisor

I went on that CFP site and did a search, and what I found was confusing. This is not a source for fee-only advisors--many of them have very high requirements for investable assets. The first one who came up in my geographic search was affiliated with a large firm that clearly charges for assets un...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we just way over complicating this?
Replies: 113
Views: 7894

Re: Are we just way over complicating this?

As I said, the devil is in the details. When precisely will you spend from bonds? When stocks are down? Down from their all time high, last year's close, etc.? What if bonds are down as well? When precisely will you replenish the bonds? When stocks are up? Up from when? These questions can be answe...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated taxes question
Replies: 12
Views: 840

Re: Estimated taxes question

I have irregular monthly income. In addition to the regular quarterly payments of estimate taxes, I would like to make an extra quarterly payment. What payment voucher should I use? The 1040 ES form indicates quarters 1 to 4 but the extra payment I'm making is in addition to those. Is there a separ...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated taxes question
Replies: 12
Views: 840

Re: Estimated taxes question

I have irregular monthly income. In addition to the regular quarterly payments of estimate taxes, I would like to make an extra quarterly payment. What payment voucher should I use? The 1040 ES form indicates quarters 1 to 4 but the extra payment I'm making is in addition to those. Is there a separ...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Thoughts
Replies: 27
Views: 2396

Re: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Thoughts

Two things that are likely true. Holding that much of your portfolio in one stock probably is too risky, but you get to choose if you want to ante up the taxes to change. It really depends on what that risk means to you. How dependent are you on this nest egg? The second thing is that of course they...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.
Replies: 61
Views: 4348

Re: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.

This is a trick question for me. I've been retired for five years and I target to keep up to $10,000 in my checking account. Now if I just laid low, that would cover 3-4 months of basic expenses. But that's not the point. Just today, I wrote checks for $6000 for some future travel, so really, that ...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.
Replies: 61
Views: 4348

Re: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.

Masonstone, can you expand a little on what motivates the question? Are you asking about things like keeping $30,000 in a checking account while spending $5000 a month or something? Most people's checking accounts have as much money coming in and going out each month as they actually have in them at...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need an advisor
Replies: 33
Views: 2156

Re: Need an advisor

I went on that CFP site and did a search, and what I found was confusing. This is not a source for fee-only advisors--many of them have very high requirements for investable assets. The first one who came up in my geographic search was affiliated with a large firm that clearly charges for assets un...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing small amounts
Replies: 30
Views: 2449

Re: Investing small amounts

For a vanguard brokerage account, I want to invest a few hundred dollars a month for a time frame of needing the money in about a year. For that criterion you can use a money market account or just go to a bank and open a savings account. But I don't know if you really mean "needing he money in abo...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.
Replies: 61
Views: 4348

Re: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.

Do you want to count authorized credit card limits? That is effectively money in the bank if you use it and zero if it isn't.
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 2209

Re: Keeping up with inflation

welderwannabe wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:42 am
dbr wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:40 am
I don't think so as they have to be purchased at Treasury Direct and TD does offer tax advantaged accounts. Also I bonds are not marketable so there is no way for a broker to transact them.
I assume you meant Treasury Direct does not offer tax advantaged accounts?
Yes
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.
Replies: 61
Views: 4348

Re: How many months of living expenses would you keep in your bank.

Maybe a month or two is what it comes out to. But the answer is kind of meaningless. There is other cash in some brokerage accounts and moving money from investment holdings of various risk is easy to do in a day or two, more or less. I would say the variation in how much money is in my checking acc...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 2209

Re: Keeping up with inflation

For the specific case of an E fund, building up a stash of I bonds might be a very good suggestion. They are CPI indexed, have no interest rate risk, after a little time are completely redeemable, and are tax deferred. The problem is annual purchase limit, redemption penalty and limits first year/f...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we just way over complicating this?
Replies: 113
Views: 7894

Re: Are we just way over complicating this?

One of the ironies of this forum is the angst that is generated by an enterprise that is founded on a principle that investing is simple.

It is simply proof that we have met the enemy and he is us.
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?
Replies: 29
Views: 1928

Re: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?

As the title says, is there? I mean for example treasuries were the way to go to last years but lowering of interest rates surely helped their gains. Will there be a reversion to the mean when interest rates rise again? Interest rates will surely go up and down. That does not have to have anything ...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we just way over complicating this?
Replies: 113
Views: 7894

Re: Are we just way over complicating this?

There are a number of people here, myself included, that go beyond a 1, 2 or 3 fund portfolio and have no issue with dealing with the additional complexity that might come with it. I really enjoy those particular discussions, actually. Doing so isn't for everybody, as evidenced by the comments by t...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 2209

Re: Keeping up with inflation

For the specific case of an E fund, building up a stash of I bonds might be a very good suggestion. They are CPI indexed, have no interest rate risk, after a little time are completely redeemable, and are tax deferred. The problem is annual purchase limit, redemption penalty and limits first year/fi...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2722

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

OP, what form of utility are you referring to? If your confidence is well-placed, then your equity allocation is irrelevant for your financial future. In this case, perhaps you ought to be reflecting on the forms of decumulatuon that might make you happiest, for example increasing consumption or ch...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with bond funds vs. CD's in retirement portfolio:
Replies: 4
Views: 562

Re: Help with bond funds vs. CD's in retirement portfolio:

For the objective you have stated your proposed change is probably without significant effect. It is really six of one and half-dozen of another. In any case without knowing the entirety of your portfolio and your rate of contribution or withdrawal one cannot even guess if you can expect to preserve...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2722

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

If you know when you will die, the answer is easy. Not knowing when I will die, the answer is much harder. Ralph Very true, I am not saying at what point do you sell off all your equities, I assume the answer to that is never, I am asking at what point is there no practical purpose to adding if you...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I getting the run around?
Replies: 24
Views: 4403

Re: Am I getting the run around?

Still have no idea what his comment was about referring to self-directed accounts only being "practical with balances over 750K"...... Thanks I would imagine this means that if there are transaction costs at the brokerage you probably want to move large amounts of money in each transaction and not ...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we just way over complicating this?
Replies: 113
Views: 7894

Re: Are we just way over complicating this?

The more posts I read, including my own, them more convinced I am that either we are inventing scenarios to worry about or just discussing things for sport. In fact, it seems to me the wisest person in the kingdom might be someone who just opens a Vanguard account with one fund the Balanced Index f...
by dbr
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I getting the run around?
Replies: 24
Views: 4403

Re: Am I getting the run around?

I'm pretty sure a 401k plan that offers a directed brokerage option will contract with the directed brokerage so that the process of moving money around can be coordinated and compliance issues met. I doubt there is ever an arrangement for the employee to select his own broker. As to costs, there wi...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2695

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

Because of the highly variations in stock and bond market returns, it can be difficult to quantify how much difference our investment choices make. Nonetheless, I thought it might be interesting to see how much return we give up when we move a portion of our portfolio from equities to bonds. Using ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation Rate, isn't it personal?
Replies: 49
Views: 4046

Re: Inflation, isn't it personal?

If you own a house are you negatively impacted by rising rents or housing costs? If you buy a used car every 10 years how much does inflation in auto prices affect you? This applies to all the categories and in my mind to what percentage of your spending occupies that category. In my life I only de...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reason for Airlines horrible ticket policy
Replies: 32
Views: 2365

Re: Reason for Airlines horrible ticket policy

The basic answer to the question is that commercial air service has never been a very profitable business and airlines are forced to find ways to eke out every source of income they can. That is the driving force. I don't think I understand nor perhaps does anyone else if the result needs to be the ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family dynamics/in laws/am I being petty?
Replies: 143
Views: 7852

Re: Family dynamics/in laws/am I being petty?

1. Don't resent it. Life is too short. 2. Yes, it's petty. The most petty is the SIL, but maybe she is just not very bright, or maybe it says something about her, I don't know. 3. You pick up the whole check is the best suggestion of all, but I wouldn't get into why you think you might have money to...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation Rate, isn't it personal?
Replies: 49
Views: 4046

Re: Inflation, isn't it personal?

Inflation isn't personal. It IMPACTS individuals in different ways, but the definition of inflation is "...a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services in a county, and is measured as an annual percentage change..." By definition, inflation is an aggregate measure. Tha...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard VTMFX Vs. Three fund portfolio divided 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 1741

Re: Vanguard VTMFX Vs. Three fund portfolio divided 50/50 asset allocation

In a taxable account one big mistake a person can make is to hold an investment for along time and then find out they want to change to something else. Accumulated unrealized gains that will be realized at a large tax cost mean the investor is stuck. In taxable investing one should invest in things ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation Rate, isn't it personal?
Replies: 49
Views: 4046

Re: Inflation, isn't it personal?

Yes, to do financial planning you have to estimate your own future expenses. But inflation is not entirely personal. Underneath your own preference for what you buy and how what you buy will change there is a general economic trend for the value of money. So you have to do both. A common example is ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA
Replies: 27
Views: 1816

Re: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA

Annuities are income streams similar to salary, pensions, social security etc. They reduce the draw down from your investments to support your lifestyle. So, it allows you to take more risk than if you didn't have this income stream. So, base your allocation on your ability to take risk (which is n...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA
Replies: 27
Views: 1816

Re: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA

Another currently-running thread that covers the same territory: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=252474 Along with many previous discussions, but it is a fundamental question. Note the answer depends on first understanding how one arrives at an asset allocation to start with. ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA
Replies: 27
Views: 1816

Re: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA

I wouldn't treat an annuity as a bond. I would consider it an income stream. Much like I treat my pension or I will treat social security when I take it. If you want to say with this increase in my income stream from an annuity I have the ability to take greater risk in my asset allocation, that I ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA
Replies: 27
Views: 1816

Re: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA

Treat them as a "bond-like" asset. This is true of SS and pensions as well. It is required if you want internally consistent logic and math that works. A strong argument can be made that annuities are income and should not be thought of as part of investment assets. Having secure income affects the...
by dbr
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA
Replies: 27
Views: 1816

Re: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA

A strong argument can be made that annuities are income and should not be thought of as part of investment assets. Having secure income affects the need, ability, and willingness to take risk with the asset allocation. What direction that effect is, more in stocks or less in stocks, depends on the i...
by dbr
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 127
Views: 15277

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

You decide this kind of thing by looking at the consequences of different asset allocations and deciding what you want and what you don't want. The answer, of course, is up to you and nobody can tell you what you want. One look at the consequences is to go into a planner like FireCalc with no spendi...
by dbr
Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTI -> VTSAX
Replies: 15
Views: 1849

Re: VTI -> VTSAX

I think we need to know more about " For the sake of simple auto-investments," but in general there is no point volunteering for tax costs. Maybe during a market downturn or something.
by dbr
Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I talking about market timing or dollar cost averaging (or both?)
Replies: 11
Views: 1100

Re: Am I talking about market timing or dollar cost averaging (or both?)

The presumption that bond funds will be anti-correlated with stocks is wrong. Stock/bond correlations are not large on average and vary over time, positive, negative, or zero. You are overthinking to move from a stable value fund to bond funds for this reason. Note even if bond funds were anti-corre...
by dbr
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Basement waterproofing questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1173

Re: Basement waterproofing questions

If you do have an external problem it is not a matter of waterproofing but of drainage. In some cases the issue is no more complicated than making sure roof gutters are working right and downspout outlets are directing water away from the house.
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hitting your number---Now What?
Replies: 19
Views: 3096

Re: Hitting your number---Now What?

You might want to read here (with the links): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirement_spending and here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirement_calculators_and_spending Jim Otar has a book on the subject: http://www.retirementoptimizer.com/ Lots and lots of the discussion on this forum addres...
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So much angst
Replies: 52
Views: 6411

Re: So much angst

I'm tired of the angst around this. I'm certainly not alone with the angst. There's topic after topic covering, Why include international? Why include bonds? Are CDs a good alternative to bonds? Should I invest or pay down debt? DIY? Robo? But the fees or minimum cash! Target date? Do bonds go in t...
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So much angst
Replies: 52
Views: 6411

Re: So much angst

There is a point of view that TD funds are actually more complicated as this case in point seems to show. But angst depends more on state of mind than on facts on the ground.
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So much angst
Replies: 52
Views: 6411

Re: So much angst

I'm tired of the angst around this. I'm certainly not alone with the angst. There's topic after topic covering, Why include international? Why include bonds? Are CDs a good alternative to bonds? Should I invest or pay down debt? DIY? Robo? But the fees or minimum cash! Target date? Do bonds go in t...
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need 3% Steady Income from $1.1 Mil Nest Egg
Replies: 30
Views: 4547

Re: Need 3% Steady Income from $1.1 Mil Nest Egg

We do know that other than something involving TIPS one mistake for a retiree is to put everything in bonds. Maybe everything in TIPS isn't such a good idea either. Of course if you are wealthy enough relative to how you want to live, you can do anything. Also an inflation indexed annuity is not saf...
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 29
Views: 2605

Re: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income

" If you are really 33/67, the difference between that and 50/50 is no difference as far as making a safe retirement but will probably leave less for your heirs on the average. If you are varying your asset allocation as you go, namely rising glide path to equities, I don't doubt there are people t...
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First questions for those willing to help
Replies: 6
Views: 930

Re: First questions for those willing to help

I understand the asset allocation choice is mine to make. With that said my question has to do with the CALPERS pension, along with the Social Security I am contributing to, and what if any changes should be made to my allocation? In my opinion the most rational way to address pensions in asset all...
by dbr
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 29
Views: 2605

Re: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income

Given that a person with a 50/50 asset allocation expecting to withdraw at 4% real for 30 years has 12.5 years of expenses in fixed income, you don't have enough in fixed income if it is only ten years worth. If your plan is 3% real, then you would have 16.5 years in fixed income to start. Of course...
by dbr
Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7348

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I guess I'm a Zvi Bodie fan. From memory... in a Youtube video he says to look into the mirror every morning and say to yourself "don't lose money today". He puts everything in TIPS. If the return of TIPS don't match your retirement plans.... work longer or save more. I have a sizeable portion of m...