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by David Jay
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Peter Jackson’s “They shall not grow old” - now showing Jan 21]
Replies: 52
Views: 6618

Re: Encore performance Jan. 21: Peter Jackson’s “They shall not grow old”

bhsince87 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:18 pm
Thanks for the heads up! It was sold out at every theater for miles around for the last showing.
Seats may be more available than Dec. 27, when a lot of folks were off work between the holidays.
by David Jay
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know market timing is a fool's game but...
Replies: 59
Views: 4699

Re: I know market timing is a fool's game but...

yeahman wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:22 pm
Anyone else pausing contributions to equities or even reallocating existing money?
I hit a rebalancing band in December, so I bought equities.
by David Jay
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilting
Replies: 20
Views: 1194

Re: Small cap tilting

Understand that the base BH position is to own the market and accept market returns. From there, some “tilt” away from market return in the belief that a specific factor will outperform the market in the future. Here is my classic line about tilting your portfolio: “What is important about any "tilt...
by David Jay
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is best strategy: Harvest Dividends or Sell shares?
Replies: 3
Views: 486

Re: What is best strategy: Harvest Dividends or Sell shares?

Welcome to the forum. It was not clear to me: Are you withdrawing less than 2.5% or more than 2.5%? If your withdrawal rate (including taxes) is more than than 2.5%, then send the dividends to your checking account and occasionally sell a few shares to replenish the account. If your withdrawal rate ...
by David Jay
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Peter Jackson’s “They shall not grow old” - now showing Jan 21]
Replies: 52
Views: 6618

Encore performance Jan. 21: Peter Jackson’s “They shall not grow old”

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Return engagement! To paraphrase neurosphere’s TD fund statement: “ If you don’t know whether or not you should see this film, you should ” This is a magnificent film of World War One, using only period footage and photos/illustrations. Find a ...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone ever buy Hilton's Timeshares (HGVC)?
Replies: 51
Views: 9262

Re: Anyone ever buy Hilton's Timeshares (HGVC)?

burt wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:47 pm
Timeshares are legal; right ? :D
So are equity-indexed annuities inside an IRA.
by David Jay
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth 401k - directing payments to a different custodian
Replies: 4
Views: 214

Re: Roth 401k - directing payments to a different custodian

Ross:

Welcome to the forum!

Sorry, your issue may be a bit too esoteric to get an answer, but my post will “bump” your thread for the weekend crowd.
by David Jay
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question
Replies: 31
Views: 6986

Re: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question

https://scontent.ffar1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/49787409_368753887008704_2881708470459957248_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_ht=scontent.ffar1-1.fna&oh=8694582b66f660d6f4be79083a62bf55&oe=5CCC1083 I especially like the NWM salesperson’s “accessible” note on the cash value. Marvelous word choice: implies ...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting FireCalc Results
Replies: 8
Views: 1735

Re: Interesting FireCalc Results

This is in keeping with most of the research. The issue is that, from a behavioral standpoint, many people can’t handle 70-80% in stocks.
by David Jay
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question
Replies: 31
Views: 6986

Re: Northwestern Mutual (65 Life) Whole Life Insurance Question

Hi Chris, welcome to the forum! Let me try to respond to a few of your specifics: We would then be able to pull money out of the life insurance on years that the market is down so that our retirement lasts longer. The goal would be to be able to pull out of the whole life 3 out of every 10 years whe...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing? [Standard-n-Poor index]
Replies: 18
Views: 1204

Re: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing?

To do the math, that is a total fund expense of 40 bucks per year per $100,000 invested.
by David Jay
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing? [Standard-n-Poor index]
Replies: 18
Views: 1204

Re: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing?

Yes, there is a fee to use the SP500 Index commercially. Since the Vanguard SP500 index fund (Admiral) has total expenses that are 0.0004 of assets (ER=.04%), I am certain that the fee is small and will not measurably affect your results. A fund using any other index will result in different results...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion
Replies: 36
Views: 2909

Re: Roth conversion

This is widely discussed here on BH so there is lots of information out there. Here is the Wiki on the subject: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Roth_IRA_conversion May I also suggest this Bogleheads search (click on link), you will find dozens of threads on this topic: https://www.google.com/search?...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!
Replies: 160
Views: 20337

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!

Miriam2 wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:23 am
...the normally sage, sensible, sound and sober David Jay...
...said no one ever.
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRA to Roth IRA conversion
Replies: 9
Views: 923

Re: IRA to Roth IRA conversion

For the purpose of pro-rata calculations, the IRS treats all of your tIRA accounts (contributory and rollover) as one account. A rollover tIRA from your 401k is considered by the IRS as common with your contribution tIRA account.
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!
Replies: 160
Views: 20337

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!

Thought you might like this, a great coincidence. On GrammaCassie’s “One year to retirement” thread:
David Jay wrote:
bloom2708 wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:41 pm
1/15/2019 seems more appropriate. One more year syndrome is not needed. Life is short!
That's a great idea, I think I will just do that :D
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?
Replies: 21
Views: 1468

Re: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?

camper1 wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:36 pm
Congrats! So you're shopping for some new work attire.
I am a pretty formal guy. No undershirts for me, I insist on at least a Pocket-T.
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?
Replies: 21
Views: 1468

Re: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?

Sorry if I am a bit giddy, I started the process of cleaning out my office today: It's time for the updated Roll Call for our up-n-coming Retirement Class of 2019! 01 Jan - Tzoellner (60) <<== Welcome to the Class!! 02 Jan - bhsince87 <<== Welcome to the Class!! 05 Jan - Canoesmith 11 Jan - Tycoon 1...
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?
Replies: 21
Views: 1468

Re: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?

Fundhunter wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:40 pm
Like a Democrat posting on a GOP website (or vice versa).
Shhh... Lady Geek might show up (I love you LG, just trying to stay in the spirit of the thread)
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?
Replies: 21
Views: 1468

Re: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?

Fundhunter wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:43 pm
Is this the right forum for a discussion of market timing strategies? I think not. This is all contrary to the Boglehead philosophy.
I’m sure you are right. Where do I go for absolution from my impure thoughts?
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?
Replies: 21
Views: 1468

Re: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?

bloom2708 wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:34 pm
...they are "just right" for undershirts.
So "Mama Bear" market?
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?
Replies: 21
Views: 1468

Simultaneous undershirt discussions - Market Indicator?

There are currently two active threads discussing Undershirts. This can't be a coincidence. It must be some kind of cosmic convergence. Like a "star in the east", as it were.

I just can't figure out if it is a "buy" signal or a "sell" signal.
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ROTH Advice - "Diversification/Simplification"
Replies: 6
Views: 455

Re: ROTH Advice - "Diversification/Simplification"

It is pretty much screaming, "hair on fire" heresy at Bogleheads to select a fund, any fund, with a 1% expense ratio.
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2622

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)

Tamalak wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:16 pm
(I did not, however, lay off any of my 1 employees)
We're glad you didn't end up out on the street. :wink:
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: current portfolio, utilities?
Replies: 8
Views: 528

Re: current portfolio, utilities?

At BH we tend to downplay backtesting without conceptual underpinnings. Naive backtesting can be extremely sensitive to the selected start and end dates. There needs to be an underlying cause-effect relationship to be valid (much like the statistics field where "correlation is not causation"). There...
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?
Replies: 81
Views: 5614

Re: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?

I am retiring this month. I don't qualify for ACA subsidy in 2019 due to a large retirement payout. I have selected a short term policy for 2019, with the primary intent of being "in-network" to reduce out of pocket costs. It is a $2M, 80/20 policy. In the event of a major, long term medical conditi...
by David Jay
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?
Replies: 27
Views: 3835

Re: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?

AerialWombat wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:32 pm
David Jay wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:12 pm
AerialWombat wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:54 pm
Junk bonds backed by inventory loans?!?!?!

I wouldn’t touch this with your 10-foot pole.
Not junk bonds (i.e. bonds rated BB or lower), UNRATED bonds.
OK, then 20-foot pole. :)
:D
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?
Replies: 27
Views: 3835

Re: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?

AerialWombat wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:54 pm
Junk bonds backed by inventory loans?!?!?!

I wouldn’t touch this with your 10-foot pole.
Not junk bonds (i.e. bonds rated BB or lower), UNRATED bonds.
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?
Replies: 27
Views: 3835

Re: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?

...a hell of a lot better than 2ish%. 2ish% is so 2017. Intermediate term Corporate (Investment grade) bond fund, SEC yield: 4.29% (VICSX) Diversified, all investment grade, 7/10 of 1% lower yield and climbing . [edit] I anticipate VICSX yield will exceed 5% before the end of 2019, the Worthy bond ...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guranteed Monthly Income Comparision - Consumer Tools
Replies: 2
Views: 348

Re: Guranteed Monthly Income Comparision - Consumer Tools

Welcome to the forum. I do not know of an aggregator-style comparison tool but a lot of people here use immediateannuiites.com for quick quotes. I suspect that the fixed annuity market will be very competitive because it is so easy to do side-by-side comparisons. There is no “special sauce” because ...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net net stocks
Replies: 13
Views: 1182

Re: Net net stocks

Welcome to the forum. In general, Bogleheads subscribe to Jack Bogle’s advice to “buy the haystack” - that is - do not try to find individual great stocks but rather purchase broad-based index funds and accept the performance of the market. Here is a summary of our philosophy: https://www.bogleheads...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did RAD stock fall so much?
Replies: 15
Views: 925

Re: Why did RAD stock fall so much?

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:03 pm
There be three things which are too wonderful for me, yea, four which I know not: The way of an eagle in the air; the way of a serpent upon a rock; the way of a ship in the midst of the sea; and the way of a price in a market.
Nice variant on the original (Solomon)
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One Year Out from Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 934

Re: One Year Out from Retirement

1/15/2019 seems more appropriate. One more year syndrome is not needed. Life is short! That's a great idea, I think I will just do that :D It's time for the updated Roll Call for our up-n-coming Retirement Class of 2019! 01 Jan - Tzoellner (60) <<== Welcome to the Class!! 02 Jan - bhsince87 <<== We...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One Year Out from Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 934

Re: One Year Out from Retirement

You are looking really good! Mine would then bump up to half his PIA, if I have that right. This is correct if you first claimed at Full Retirement Age. If you filed earlier, then there is a dollar-for-dollar reduction equivalent to the reduction from filing early (my wife filed @ 62 for her persona...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does such a SS income estimate calculator exist?
Replies: 7
Views: 522

Re: Does such a SS income estimate calculator exist?

Of course, in your scenario, we need to know at what age you worked for those 10 years and current age. That could make a big difference (age 21-31 vs 51-61). This! At age 60 all of your past work history is adjusted for wage inflation (CPI-W), so the 10 year period matters. So does your current ag...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did RAD stock fall so much?
Replies: 15
Views: 925

Re: Why did RAD stock fall so much?

EPS: (-.85) [they are losing 85 cents per year]. Apparently the market believes that they can survive for another year...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6814

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

It seems like lots of people recommend an SWR in the 2s for people with 40-50 years retirements (I seriously doubt I will need to worry about that timeframe). Have you really seen any serious recommendation for 2% by anyone? I haven't. I have read some people here on BH say their personal withdrawa...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does such a SS income estimate calculator exist?
Replies: 7
Views: 522

Re: Does such a SS income estimate calculator exist?

Of course, in your scenario, we need to know at what age you worked for those 10 years and current age. That could make a big difference (age 21-31 vs 51-61). This! At age 60 all of your past work history is adjusted for wage inflation (CPI-W), so the 10 year period matters. So does your current ag...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA question about income required before age 70 SSI
Replies: 9
Views: 609

Re: AA question about income required before age 70 SSI

Don't overlook Short Term Bond. Better payout than MM and very low volatility. I went back trying to find the worst-ever volatility, it appears that, even if there is a dip for a few days, that the fund (VBIRX) is back within 1% of the pre-dip value within 30 days. I have two years expenses in Short...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Back-door Roth with Existing tIRA Balance
Replies: 15
Views: 827

Re: Background Roth with Existing tIRA Balance

There is one concern: that your 401(k) plan may not take your money. They are not allowed to take post-tax funds, so some 401(k) only allow funds from "rollover IRAs". Make sure that your 401(k) WILL take your money, otherwise you may end up with a stranded non-deductible basis in your ira (not des...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6814

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

It seems like lots of people recommend an SWR in the 2s for people with 40-50 years retirements (I seriously doubt I will need to worry about that timeframe). Have you really seen any serious recommendation for 2% by anyone? I haven't. I have read some people here on BH say their personal withdrawa...
by David Jay
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation 3 fund or TRD
Replies: 4
Views: 470

Re: Asset Allocation 3 fund or TRD

Welcome to the forum!

1. Target Date funds are great if you are a “set it and forget it” kind of person, it is better to use a TD fund than to use a 3-fund and forget to rebalance.

2. Vanguard trusts in an employee sponsored plan are no problem.
by David Jay
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: first AA with index funds
Replies: 10
Views: 825

Re: first AA with index funds

15% is a big allocation for a commodity that generates no revenue (earnings, interest or dividends).
by David Jay
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rules for converting trad IRA to Roth IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 633

Re: Rules for converting trad IRA to Roth IRA

rehoman wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:51 pm
My goal is to have a 50/50 split between Roth and trad IRAs.
Goals are nice, but make sure you aren’t creating IRMAA, Medicare or NIIT problems.
by David Jay
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: cash value of life insurance to roth?
Replies: 3
Views: 239

Re: cash value of life insurance to roth?

fishboat wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:16 pm
I believe the cash value is above the basis and she'll owe capital gains.
If The capital gains are large amount (tens of thousands) then a 1035 exchange to a variable annuity at Vanguard might be appropriate. If it is just a few thousand then I would pay the taxes and have the money free and clear.
by David Jay
Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I buy gold?
Replies: 55
Views: 3591

Re: How do I buy gold?

Lots of discussion here about the Golden Butterfly here on BH, it is basically a new twist on the old Harry Browne “Permanent Portfolio”.

Here are the search results for “Golden Butterfly”: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearc ... +butterfly
by David Jay
Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Life transition, what's next
Replies: 25
Views: 3183

Re: Life transition, what's next

Welcome to the forum. As others have suggested, more information will allow us to give you better informed feedback. I would like to suggest looking at Social Security options with opensocialsecurity.com which is done by a CPA who is a member of the forum. With $700,000 of investments, it may not be...
by David Jay
Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equity-indexed annuity - Helping a Parent Who Bought In
Replies: 16
Views: 950

Re: Equity-indexed annuity - Helping a Parent Who Bought In

bryanm wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:02 pm
Longest bull market in history and she's been getting, at max, one third of the SP500.
Yea, but the “advisor” received a check for 8% of your Mom’s assets.