Search found 9283 matches

by David Jay
Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Introduction and question about muni bond investing
Replies: 7
Views: 475

Re: Introduction and a question

Welcome to the forum! I can’t really help with Muni funds, my portfolio is almost exclusively in tax-advantaged accounts (moderate income). But I wanted to welcome you to the forum. We retired last year @62 so we are in the same stage of life (except for the middle-schooler at home). I do know that ...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Higher Expense Ratio Plan or Eliminate Backdoor Roth
Replies: 8
Views: 350

Re: Higher Expense Ratio Plan or Eliminate Backdoor Roth

retiredjg wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:38 pmI'd give up the backdoor before rolling a large sum into a high cost plan. Put the money intended for Roth IRA into taxable instead.
I would agree with this plan. Put it all into Total US + Total Intl. stock funds for best tax efficiency (no bonds in taxable, put bonds in current 401K).
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds - Dangerous?
Replies: 46
Views: 3826

Re: Index Funds - Dangerous?

Imagine how much money you would have made if you had bought companies like Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Salesforce, and Facebook before most of the public had even heard of them. My secret technique did just that, and is assured of doing so in the future, with zero research and no active maintenance req...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bet that 30-year mortgage rates are below 2.00% by July 2021
Replies: 37
Views: 3886

Re: Bet that 30-year mortgage rates are below 2.00% by July 2021

While we might see 2% 30 year mortgages by next summer, I don’t think that will be the “no cost” rate - which is the only one that matters to me anymore. For the sake of this thread, I think paying full closing costs is a reasonable benchmark. Paying points is an artificial rate reduction, but clos...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bet that 30-year mortgage rates are below 2.00% by July 2021
Replies: 37
Views: 3886

Re: Bet that 30-year mortgage rates are below 2.00% by July 2021

I read in a recent thread that someone had snagged a 2.25% 30 year fixed.
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation at age 61
Replies: 61
Views: 6983

Re: Asset Allocation at age 61

Please, go purchase Jane Quinn Bryant's book "Making Your Money Last" - it is the best single reference for our (I'm two years ahead of you) stage of life.
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Index funds ladder
Replies: 17
Views: 884

Re: Roth IRA Index funds ladder

And by the way, with a single market fund, you can have “steady” income. With your plan, you will have “lumpy” income - over 25 years some segments of the market will do better and others do worse. You will get $20,000 (5%) one year and $100,000 (12%) another year. With a single fund, you can take ...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to convert IRA to Roth in high tax bracket?
Replies: 12
Views: 1123

Re: When to convert IRA to Roth in high tax bracket?

...would love to retire by 60 (possibly 55). I’ll continue to assess. I appreciate everyone’s thoughts and feedback. An optimal time for large Roth conversions is after retirement and before age 63 (when IRMMA penalties affect the decision). Then smaller conversions from 63 to start of Social Secur...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Index funds ladder
Replies: 17
Views: 884

Re: Roth IRA Index funds ladder

And by the way, with a single market fund, you can have “steady” income. With your plan, you will have “lumpy” income - over 25 years some segments of the market will do better and others do worse. You will get $20,000 (5%) one year and $100,000 (12%) another year. With a single fund, you can take ...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Four-fund plans with a growth tilt
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Four-fund plans with a growth tilt

Welcome to the forum! What are your reasons to expect the "growth" segment of the market to outperform over the next 10 years? Growth back-tests very well (if that is the source of your expectation) because the growth segment of the market has outperformed over the last 10 years. While I recommend a...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Index funds ladder
Replies: 17
Views: 884

Re: Roth IRA Index funds ladder

Can you name one advantage of your plan as opposed to putting it all in a Total Stock fund (and maybe a Total International as well)? None of the stock funds "mature". None of the stock funds has an early withdrawal penalty. There are no tax consequences inside a Roth. If you started at 20-30 yrs o...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Index funds ladder
Replies: 17
Views: 884

Re: Roth IRA Index funds ladder

iraconfused wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:31 amPut enough in 401k for company match and have that in bonds. Cash one in every year no need to worry about SS or RMD.
The 401K has RMDs.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ROTH Conversion and Portfolio Re-Balancing during decumulation phase
Replies: 4
Views: 464

Re: ROTH Conversion and Portfolio Re-Balancing during decumulation phase

You have the ability to do some free Roth conversions in retirement due to your large taxable balance. You can withdraw living expenses from taxable, which will keep your income will be low enough to allow for Roth conversions in the “0% tax bracket”. Here is my thread on Roth conversions after star...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Index funds ladder
Replies: 17
Views: 884

Re: Roth IRA Index funds ladder

People build bond ladders and CD ladders because these assets have a maturity date, at which time both the principle and interest are paid out on the asset. For instance, if you are purchasing 10 year TIPs, you need to have ten "rungs" on the "ladder" Can you name one advantage of your plan as oppos...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds--Why So Stock Heavy?
Replies: 44
Views: 2690

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds--Why So Stock Heavy?

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/target-retirement/#/ For example, the fund for a 40-year old is 90% Stock. We strongly recommend the selection of a Target Date fund by Asset Allocation (stock/bond), not by “date”. If “2040” does not have the AA that you want, select “2045” or “2050”. The...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on investor revolt
Replies: 6
Views: 1446

Re: Bloomberg article on investor revolt

I hadn't looked at the ER numbers before - Vanguard Total Market outperforms it's ER by over 2 basis points (actual cost to the customer is 1.6 basis points when the quoted ER is 4 basis points). What does this mean? Talk to me like a 3rd grader? Are fees actually less than the 0.04% listed in the ...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New vanguard account: Reinvest dividends or put into Money Market holding?
Replies: 42
Views: 2246

Re: New vanguard account: Reinvest dividends or put into Money Market holding?

Since re-investments are actually tiny purchases, if you re-invest in taxable accounts, you will end up with lots of tiny "purchases", which can be annoying when you go to sell. In taxable, I just let everything go to the settlement account. Then, once a year or so, I can re-invest that in whatever...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying covid hit stocks
Replies: 30
Views: 1834

Re: Buying covid hit stocks

I hope that didn't come across as condescending. I was exactly where you are about 6-7 years ago. I thought I could "outperform" the market.

It takes a measure of humility to take what the market gives and call it good.
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying covid hit stocks
Replies: 30
Views: 1834

Re: Buying covid hit stocks

What specialized knowledge do you have about these stocks that the financial industry does not have and has not priced into the current value of these stocks? If you are buying, there is an someone on the other side of the trade. That someone is likely (based on trading volume) an industry professio...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Have Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth fund - is this OK?]
Replies: 15
Views: 1370

Re: [Have Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth fund - is this OK?]

Welcome to the forum! LifeStrategy Growth has a 20% allocation to bonds, which suggests that in stock market "up" years it will under-perform a stock-only fund. In stock market "down" years it should out-perform a stock-only fund. A reduction in volatility is what bonds provide for a portfolio. LS G...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on investor revolt
Replies: 6
Views: 1446

Re: Bloomberg article on investor revolt

I hadn't looked at the ER numbers before - Vanguard Total Market outperforms it's ER by over 2 basis points (actual cost to the customer is 1.6 basis points when the quoted ER is 4 basis points).
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7885

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO?

Missing out on outsized gains by not indulging in the mania (FANG, Tesla, Zoom etc) and sticking to index funds I “miss out” on the outsize gains of Powerball and Mega-Millions. The CAGR is amazing (if one wins). Go read the Nisiprius post. If you read it, read it again (And again. Until you actual...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7885

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO?

By sticking to a number of personal principles, that not everybody shares, but that I really do hold. "Satisficing," not optimizing. Knowing my personal goals, and measuring everything in an absolute way against my own goals. Being in this for me , not to beat somebody else . To some extent this ru...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity Satisfaction or Regrets?
Replies: 66
Views: 4502

Re: Immediate Annuity Satisfaction or Regrets?

I would spread the purchase(s) over some years also. Did you start out intending to spread the purchases over ten years? An alternative is to purchase an SPIA with a fixed percentage increase (2%, 3%, etc.). It doesn’t appear that any insurer offers true COLA policies (probably too much “tail” risk...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdraw from IRA vs taxable act.
Replies: 7
Views: 502

Re: Withdraw from IRA vs taxable act.

One big issue is whether you expect to spend most of your portfolio on your living expenses or you expect to have a large legacy estate: - If you will consume most of your portfolio, I would spend the taxable funds first because your capital gains tax rate will be lower than your IRA withdrawal tax ...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving cash into equities - portfolio advice
Replies: 8
Views: 1146

Re: Moving cash into equities - portfolio advice

Welcome to the forum! ?3. Should I wait for a while (3 months) see how market does then invest -- if there is a dip than high market? any thoughts? No, you should not wait. You should set a plan to invest the money and then stick with the plan. This does not mean you have to invest it all immediatel...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 81
Views: 13870

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

nisiprius wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:01 am30-year real returns:

Image
Just using the old “Mark 1 Eyeball”, 7% looks like a pretty good median. Those periods that ended between 1984 and 1994 were in the 4s, but the periods that ended between 1961 to 1972 were significantly higher.
by David Jay
Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?
Replies: 102
Views: 9320

Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

...going all the way to 20/80 would be too much from 50/50 in my opinion. Rick Ferri has described 30/70 as the “center of gravity” for retirees. Enough equities to stay ahead of inflation and enough stability to not get knocked off center. For example, the March drop (30% on the SP500) would be 9%...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Employer plan at Ed Jones
Replies: 70
Views: 6680

Re: Employer plan at Ed Jones

He is saying that if I found a FI that did the 5304, we would not have to go thru any of this and be able to just have me set up an account and employer sent contributions without having to set up a “master account.” How about doing this? Here are a few high-quality brokerages to contact to see if ...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IPS creation: Which funds to use and when to use them
Replies: 11
Views: 618

Re: IPS creation: Which funds to use and when to use them

And remember going forward to post the names of the funds, not just the tickers. Most don't know the Fidelity fund family well enough to know those tickers.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IPS creation: Which funds to use and when to use them
Replies: 11
Views: 618

Re: IPS creation: Which funds to use and when to use them

In these times of historically low interest rates, I suppose a fund such as LifeStrategy Conservative would be OK for funds not needed for more than a year.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling over to Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 385

Re: Rolling over to Vanguard

I would call Vanguard. Tell them to "pull" the funds. (BTW - we always recommend working with the brokerage that is receiving the funds, they have the incentive to make sure things go smoothly) No way I want them to send me a check . Too many possible ways for that process to get messed up and me en...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student loan pay down vs investing?
Replies: 2
Views: 273

Re: Student loan pay down vs investing?

Welcome to the forum! You currently have $220,000 in cash. That cash is severely under-performing the interest on your student loans. It seems like a no-brainer to take cash at 1%(?) and deploy it in a manner that provides a guaranteed return of ~3.5%. I don't know how much cash you want to maintain...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lincoln Level Advantage Indexed Variable Annuity
Replies: 42
Views: 2146

Re: Lincoln Level Advantage Indexed Variable Annuity

Fred never came back (only 1 post as of today). Do you think he went ahead, believed his “advisor” and put his IRA money into an Equity Indexed Annuity?
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Roth IRA - Cannot Exchange Funds? (NEWB)
Replies: 27
Views: 1300

Re: Vanguard Roth IRA - Cannot Exchange Funds? (NEWB)

Welcome to the forum! The problem is the Morgan Stanley Fund. One can only perform an “exchange” between Vanguard funds. All outside fund families will have to be “sold” - that will put the proceeds in your settlement account after 1 day. From there you can “buy” Vanguard funds. BTW - this is also t...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IPS creation: Which funds to use and when to use them
Replies: 11
Views: 618

Re: IPS creation: Which funds to use and when to use them

I think you are being too finite. I only ever had 2 categories: your #1-4 and then a separate #5.

I would not recommend any stock market exposure for funds needed within the next 5 years.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling over to Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 385

Re: Rolling over to Vanguard

Hi, I am in the process of moving my funds from my current wealth mgmt company to Vanguard. This is what my advisor mailed me saying. Is that an accurate statement and business as usual and are there any watchouts for me to keep in mind ? I dont think there are any closing fees or very small if at ...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?
Replies: 66
Views: 6861

Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Feeling better now, after today’s 3%-4% (depending on index) pullback?
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ETF or Mutual Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 381

Re: ETF OR MUTUAL FUND

In Vanguard’s case, they are exactly the same fund.

The only difference is how they trade. And if PAS is doing the rebalancing, it doesn’t matter to you how or when the particular classes trade.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Family member has one million in one stock , doesn't want to cash out
Replies: 261
Views: 28323

Re: My dad has 1 million in Tesla, I told him to cash out, he doesn't want too

If he had a million in TSLA yesterday, he has about $904K today.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Indexes don't search for solutions. People do."
Replies: 17
Views: 2079

Re: "Indexes don't search for solutions. People do."

neurosphere wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:05 pm Looks like after 2008 they essentially decided to simply track the index! Plotting 2010 to present shows an identical path.
Yup, closet index fund since 2010, except you get to pay an ER of .74 :shock:
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do? [Portfolio Review]
Replies: 4
Views: 716

Re: What would you do?

Many have invested in real estate which can have great appreciation due to high leverage (5x or higher). The caution is that investing in residential rental properties is NOT comparable to passive financial instruments. It is a part-time job. As long as you understand that up front, I have no proble...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I accidentally went into cash yesterday. What to do now?
Replies: 34
Views: 5117

Re: I accidentally went into cash yesterday. What to do now?

unclescrooge wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:03 pm Why would you sell an ETF to buy an equivalent mutual fund?
I did that. Moved my portfolio from ETFs to mutual funds.

I like the simplicity of dollar denominated rebalancing. I was still working at the time, traveling extensively overseas and not always able to trade during market hours.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VITAX curious [Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund]
Replies: 68
Views: 2358

Re: VITAX curious

My problem with what was said above is that it smacks of market timing, which I (and, I believe, most Bogleheads) have no interest in. My investment horizon is 3 decades, so debating whether I should have invested in technology 4 years ago misses the point. The crux of the matter is that I might be...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on ZWU?
Replies: 6
Views: 337

Re: Thoughts on ZWU?

Nothing about this chart says “buy” or “safe” to me:
Image

Underperforming it’s index by more than 2-to-1. Bigger dip (percentage wise) than the index earlier this year. Didn’t rebound like the index after the dip.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on ZWU?
Replies: 6
Views: 337

Re: Thoughts on ZWU?

What is ZWU? (don’t make people go look it up in order to respond to your question)

What does “safe” mean to you?
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VITAX curious [Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund]
Replies: 68
Views: 2358

Re: VITAX curious

Thanks--I do presently have a 3-fund portfolio (VTEAX, VTIAX, VTSAX) in my brokerage account, so VITAX would be (maybe lucrative) icing on the cake. Please re-read what “dbr” wrote above, you are hoping to purchase future performance based on past performance: A comment about sectors such as tech o...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover a Roth Annuity?
Replies: 3
Views: 256

Re: Rollover a Roth Annuity?

I have an annuity in a Roth account with Prudential. Ouch. Who talked you into that? This is a Prudential-only product, you cannot hold it at any other firm. You will have to cash out the annuity before you can roll the funds (as cash) to a Vanguard Roth. Hopefully you are past the penalty phase.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VITAX curious [Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund]
Replies: 68
Views: 2358

Re: VITAX curious

Thanks--I do presently have a 3-fund portfolio (VTEAX, VTIAX, VTSAX) in my brokerage account, so VITAX would be (maybe lucrative) icing on the cake. Please re-read what “dbr” wrote above, you are hoping to purchase future performance based on past performance: A comment about sectors such as tech o...