Search found 9318 matches

by David Jay
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review -- preparing for retirement
Replies: 3
Views: 557

Re: Portfolio review -- preparing for retirement

Welcome to the forum! One thing I do not see is your projected living expenses. I would not have been able to determine our preparedness for retirement without a reasonable estimate of my expected spending. Virtually all of the retirement tools I used started with living expenses and worked their wa...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRA Roth Conversion Question
Replies: 33
Views: 2218

Re: IRA Roth Conversion Question

Vanguard doesn’t let you withhold taxes online. Perhaps they will if you call. I have that option at VG, but I choose not do so when I do conversions. I have done this at Vanguard and withheld taxes on a Roth conversion. I used the “exchange funds” function and exchanged from one account to another...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRA Roth Conversion Question
Replies: 33
Views: 2218

Re: IRA Roth Conversion Question

Vanguard doesn’t let you withhold taxes online. Perhaps they will if you call. I have that option at VG, but I choose not do so when I do conversions. I have done this at Vanguard and withheld taxes on a Roth conversion. I used the “exchange funds” function and exchanged from one account to another...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protection against Flash Crashes when using Margin
Replies: 35
Views: 2156

Re: Protection against Flash Crashes when using Margin

RayKeynes wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:17 amIs anyone of you guys a margin expert?
Did you notice this up-thread?
alex_686 wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:15 amI worked the margin desk.
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to understand logistics of a Backdoor Roth
Replies: 38
Views: 2960

Re: Trying to understand logistics of a Backdoor Roth

Presumably at the end of this year, my wife will have $6k in an IRA account in her name, which will be "roth" money due to the conversion. When next year we fund $6k into it, somehow there's a way to discern between the existing Roth money and the newly-funded Traditional money (until we convert th...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixed annuity
Replies: 27
Views: 1652

Re: fixed annuity

Oh, and no 59.5 limitation if purchased with unqualified funds...

[I have seen conflicting information, see below]
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixed annuity
Replies: 27
Views: 1652

Re: fixed annuity

For a MYGA I thought there are penalties for withdrawals before 59.5. So age is not immaterial if you want to cash out before 59.5 Please follow along with the conversation. Context matters. Rural Avalon says: It might be better to defer purchase of a fixed annuity until age 70+ . D Diaz asks : rur...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protection against Flash Crashes when using Margin
Replies: 35
Views: 2156

Re: Protection against Flash Crashes when using Margin

JoMoney wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:19 amYou can not use margin so you're not exposed to that risk.
This.

Perhaps utilize a leveraged ETF instead of margin.
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF.com: Vanguard’s Active ETFs Underperform 09-30-20
Replies: 9
Views: 797

Re: ETF.com: Vanguard’s Active ETFs Underperform 09-30-20

Why would anyone purchase actively managed factor funds from Vanguard? It seems somewhat like buying an airplane from a yacht broker.
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixed annuity
Replies: 27
Views: 1652

Re: fixed annuity

ruralavalon wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:29 pm
ddiaz396 wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:26 pm ruralavalon, why is that?
"It might be better to defer purchase of a fixed annuity until age 70+."
Higher annual payouts per dollar premium the older you are.
You are confusing this product (MGYA) for a different product. Age is immaterial.
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bengen Article Citing Kitces. SWR vs Valuation
Replies: 96
Views: 7139

Re: New Bengen Article Citing Kitces. SWR vs Valuation

Leesbro63 wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:10 pmSo factoring all of that in, what do YOU think is a safe 30year SWR for a 50/50 portfolio?
I’m not Garland, but I think the 4% number has help up well over the last 3 decades.

I would roll in very low bond returns (negative) and a low inflation regime (positive) to leave that number unchanged.
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $150,000, in this day and age
Replies: 44
Views: 5117

Re: Investing $150,000, in this day and age

Welcome to the forum! We ask folks to put full fund names in their posts so we don’t have to go look up tickers in order to provide input, as follows: VGSLX - VG Real Estate Index Fund VTAPX - VG Short Term Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) VVIAX - VG Value Index Fund VPU - VG Utilities Index Fund
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does a deferred income annuity count as deductible IRA funds?
Replies: 54
Views: 1947

Re: Does a deferred income annuity count as deductible IRA funds?

Yes, how do they value the annuity? I have seen several BH experts (professionals like Alan S, but perhaps not him specifically) state that valuing an annuity (in that specific case, for RMD purposes) can only be done by the issuer due to the complexity of the calculations. So I suspect the only wa...
by David Jay
Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending
Replies: 10
Views: 689

Re: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending

Yes. SPY is kind of the “default” S&P 500 ETF for trading the index.
by David Jay
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1st time ROTH conversion - calculating the amount though...
Replies: 14
Views: 1000

Re: 1st time ROTH conversion - calculating the amount though...

It makes no sense to me to pay 0% in taxes for a few years if you end up paying 22% at age 72 and thereafter. 22% at age 72 is what I might have to pay then, yes. Which is why doing ROTH conversions today, where I still can withdraw portions this year from my tIRA would NOT trigger any tax liabilit...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 899

Re: Vanguard bonds

Welcome to the forum! We ask that folks looking for help include the full fund names so people willing to give advice aren’t forced to go look up a bunch of tickers in order to provide feedback. You can use the “pencil” icon in the upper right corner to edit the original post with the fund names. I ...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1st time ROTH conversion - calculating the amount though...
Replies: 14
Views: 1000

Re: 1st time ROTH conversion - calculating the amount though...

I think you are working too hard. I make a rough estimate and proceed.

What happens if you overshoot by $1000? That puts $1000 of income in the 10% bracket, for $100 in tax. I’m unwilling to put extended effort and planning into making absolutely sure I don’t pay an extra 100 bucks in taxes.
by David Jay
Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Global Wellington not popular here?
Replies: 12
Views: 1323

Re: Why is Global Wellington not popular here?

a) "Staying the course" means just that. Global Wellington was introduced on 11/02/2017. If you were invested before then, investing in Global Wellington would mean changing from something else. Someone trying to stay the course should not be constantly shifting around in an effort to adopt the "la...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Traditional vs Roth - Is this a factor?
Replies: 20
Views: 1382

Re: Traditional vs Roth - Is this a factor?

2. With the Roth, there is no inflation factor. The taxes are paid immediately as they are earned, as follows: P*T = Roth Government Result This is moving the future value of the Traditional taxes to today. The formulas I wrote move Roth taxes to the Traditional time. It works either way. I believe...
by David Jay
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing order
Replies: 12
Views: 1134

Re: Investing order

401k's require age 59.5 age for non penalty withdrawals. 403b has a provision where there is no penalty if you separate from your employer after age 55. 401k also follows the "Rule of 55". See Topic No. 558 Additional Tax on Early Distributions from Retirement Plans Other than IRAs | Internal Reven...
by David Jay
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing order
Replies: 12
Views: 1134

Re: Investing order

Being in the 12% tax bracket I would put it all in a Roth. If you get up in the higher brackets then it might make sense to put it in traditional. Unless your 401k/403b have high fees in them, it wouldn't be necessary to invest in your IRA unless you start maxing it out. I mostly agree, I would go ...
by David Jay
Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Traditional vs Roth - Is this a factor?
Replies: 20
Views: 1382

Re: Traditional vs Roth - Is this a factor?

If the government wanted to increase receipts, they could eliminate all tax-deferred savings plans and only allow after-tax plans (Roth 401K, etc). That would result in a huge, immediate (but short term, perhaps 10-15 years) increase in revenue.
by David Jay
Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Traditional vs Roth - Is this a factor?
Replies: 20
Views: 1382

Re: Traditional vs Roth - Is this a factor?

I am not getting your point, why do I care about the Government's income? Are you concerned that the benefit to the government could affect Washington DC decision making with regard to inflation, etc? That aside, here are a few points on your formulas: 1. There is no utility function for the time va...
by David Jay
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: is this market timing? or better
Replies: 24
Views: 1811

Re: is this market timing? or better

I just hate buying at all time highs :( As others have said, this thinking is the root of your problem. An analogy can be made to taking a cross country trip (let's say from NY to CA). Every minute you drive, you are further west than you ever have been. Should you go back to NY and start over beca...
by David Jay
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k) Plan Documents
Replies: 2
Views: 208

Re: 401(k) Plan Documents

It’s not just words, there are actual costs associated with running 401K plans.

And actual costs associated with changing “words” (post-tax 401K plans are relatively recent offerings).
by David Jay
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11097

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

I found the article less generic than your dismissal of it. Can you be more specific? For example, why is this chart from the Financial Times just "noise"? I am not the poster, but these articles are “noise” because they are not actionable in any real sense (see Nisiprius’ first post). They may be ...
by David Jay
Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anchors screws - over time do they get loose ???
Replies: 33
Views: 3318

Re: Anchors screws - over time do they get loose ???

I mistakenly thought that these anchors are rated for more than enough weight and give me the ability to attach anywhere. The anchors are rated for a lot of weight. The published ratings are “static” - like for hanging a painting where there is no motion. Curtains being opened and closed creates mo...
by David Jay
Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible error in backdoor Roth IRA conversion
Replies: 9
Views: 348

Re: Possible error in backdoor Roth IRA conversion

1. I think your contributions are OK, if you take one $6000 as a 2019 contribution and the second as a 2020 contribution. This may require amending your 2019 Form 8606. 2. I am not a expert on this, but my guess is that the funds coming out of your tIRA will be seen as a distribution, which is a tax...
by David Jay
Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible error in backdoor Roth IRA conversion
Replies: 9
Views: 348

Re: Possible error in backdoor Roth IRA conversion

Welcome to the forum! ...and then transferred that amount next day to my spouse's Roth IRA. This step is clearly not allowed, Individual Retirement Accounts are, as the name states, individual . You cannot co-mingle your IRAs with her IRAs. I don’t know the precise steps, but you will likely have to...
by David Jay
Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?
Replies: 56
Views: 4423

Re: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?

There is almost always a better portfolio than the portfolio you hold when viewed in retrospect. The problem is knowing in advance what challenges one’s portfolio will face. Author William Bernstein has written a short booklet entitled “Deep Risk” where he looks at his “4 horseman of the apocalypse...
by David Jay
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Withdrawal Questions
Replies: 5
Views: 455

Re: Roth IRA Withdrawal Questions

easy is good
by David Jay
Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Withdrawal Questions
Replies: 5
Views: 455

Re: Roth IRA Withdrawal Questions

I know the Roth withdrawal order is contributions first, then conversions, and then interest. If I add this new conversion to the existing Roth it’s possible I might need to withdraw it before five years, thereby incurring a penalty. All your withdrawals are now qualified. For you, there are no lon...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 403b options- equally-weighted fund
Replies: 4
Views: 291

Re: 403b options- equally-weighted fund

If the load is under 1%, I would use the SP500 fund. An equally weighted fund incurs too much risk of under-performing the market (just a handful of companies account for most of the index growth in any given year).
by David Jay
Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Were mutual fund share numbers rounded down when transferring from Vanguard to Merrill Edge?
Replies: 13
Views: 638

Re: Were mutual fund share numbers rounded down when transferring from Vanguard to Merrill Edge?

For context, for assets to be transferable they have to be held at DTC. There are 2 systems. Stocks and bonds are held are held in one system. These are whole shares. Fractional shares are a accounting invention of the brokerage houses. So not formally recognized. Mutual funds by contrast are "netw...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Were mutual fund share numbers rounded down when transferring from Vanguard to Merrill Edge?
Replies: 13
Views: 638

Re: Were mutual fund share numbers rounded down when transferring from Vanguard to Merrill Edge?

Only full shares are transferred. Is this due to the specific circumstances of this case? I often gift shares on an "in kind" basis and fractional shares have always transferred. In my case it is always from one Vanguard account to another Vanguard account. Your case is not a transfer between broke...
by David Jay
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Were mutual fund share numbers rounded down when transferring from Vanguard to Merrill Edge?
Replies: 13
Views: 638

Re: Were mutual fund share numbers rounded down when transferring from Vanguard to Merrill Edge?

Only full shares are transferred. Any fractional shares are sold and the money placed in your account. It may take a month or more for everything (dividends, etc.) to settle out.
by David Jay
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 403b rollover
Replies: 1
Views: 137

Re: 403b rollover

Welcome to your first post! Without question, roll over into a 401k. It is hard to come up with a situation where one should make taxable distributions (Roth conversion or withdrawal) when in the top tax bracket. The math is very simple: tax rate at time of contribution versus tax rate at time of di...
by David Jay
Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Small Travel Trailer Advise needed
Replies: 44
Views: 2558

Re: Small Travel Trailer Advise needed

Remember, you are going to load it up with “stuff”. The Highlander is a capable tow vehicle but I think you are wise to keep the empty weight to about 3500.
by David Jay
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Attend COVID Wedding?
Replies: 22
Views: 2108

Re: Attend COVID Wedding?

I think it is way too early to decide not to go. Nine months is a long time. Think back 9 months. How many of your plans (as of December, 2019) are unchanged? What if there is a widely available vaccine in the Spring (corona virus task force members are saying April for widespread distribution)? The...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Correct Social Security benefit for widow?
Replies: 7
Views: 951

Re: Correct Social Security benefit for widow?

Is the idea that in a situation like this, the new benefit amount for the widow becomes roughly equivalent to the old benefit amount for the deceased husband and the old benefit amount for the widow just goes away ? Well, as you can see, it doesn't actually "go away" according to SSA. But yes, the ...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Question(s)
Replies: 18
Views: 1417

Re: Portfolio Review Question(s)

A few comments: Should I focus on building a cash reserve in a money market fund for required minimum distribution from now or at least 4 years from now for RMD in year 2027? I think it is too early, especially in the current low-interest-rate environment. I would recommend waiting 2 years and then ...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Add Another Fund to My Roth IRA?
Replies: 12
Views: 871

Re: Should I Add Another Fund to My Roth IRA?

This thread discusses the so-called "one fund portfolio" - like your TargetRetirement 2060: viewtopic.php?t=287967
by David Jay
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will VBTLX do considering the FED stimulus, low rates and $23T Gov debt
Replies: 11
Views: 918

Re: How will VBTLX do considering the FED stimulus, low rates and $23T Gov debt

You are looking at current yields to Total Bond and projecting out 30 years. Total Bond may have low yield for 2-3 years, but the economy will recover and bond yields to look more like historic performance. Using the current conditions as a benchmark for the next 30 years is creating unnecessary ang...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Correct Social Security benefit for widow?
Replies: 7
Views: 951

Re: Correct Social Security benefit for widow?

Looks correct . I believe the reason why the amount is slightly more than his old benefit is because there is only one Medicare withholding. BTW - the SSA officially maintains the widow(er)s "personal" benefit and provides an adder to get up to the higher earning spouse's previous benefit. That is ...
by David Jay
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Money Market Yield Question
Replies: 5
Views: 547

Re: Money Market Yield Question

SEC yield is after expenses. That being said, all Money Market funds are headed towards zero due to low interest rates. At this point, who knows which accounts will handle the new, low interest rate regime best. Moving money around over the next 3-6 months for a tenth or two of one percentage point ...
by David Jay
Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Contemplating retiring in about a year: are we ready?
Replies: 9
Views: 2456

Re: Contemplating retiring in about a year: are we ready?

Simple answer: YES.

You will have over $13,000 (6.9K + 2.6K + 3.6K) a month coming in with pensions COLA adjusted. The C.R.T. is dropping but SS kicks in after 7 years, almost the same as the trust if you include spousal.

And you have a million some in retirement assets for "contingencies".
by David Jay
Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: refi vs reverse mortgage for new retiree (and other questions)
Replies: 8
Views: 568

Re: refi vs reverse mortgage for new retiree (and other questions)

After doing some “back of the napkin” calculations, here is how I would proceed if you are dead set against withdrawing more than $13,000 a year (I don’t believe this is the best choice): 1. Put $25,000 on the mortgage ($20,000 from Roth, $5000 from checking). This lowers the balance to lower the pa...
by David Jay
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: refi vs reverse mortgage for new retiree (and other questions)
Replies: 8
Views: 568

Re: refi vs reverse mortgage for new retiree (and other questions)

I agree with others who suggest this is too much house for her income level. It will be tough. Anything over that she would be paying about 10% or 12% tax in order to save 4.5% mortgage interest which I'm assuming doesn't make sense? This statement confuses the math. You are comparing a one-time 12%...
by David Jay
Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: refi vs reverse mortgage for new retiree (and other questions)
Replies: 8
Views: 568

Re: refi vs reverse mortgage for new retiree (and other questions)

1. If she wants to stay in this house, I'm thinking the primary options are to refinance or get a reverse mortgage. I disagree. She is mortgage-poor. She doesn’t need a different mortgage, she needs to pay it off. Then SS meets her needs. How to convert 401k/IRA money to mortgage payoff? That is th...