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by sperry8
Thu Mar 12, 2009 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Term Investment Grade
Replies: 6
Views: 1349

Intermediate Term Investment Grade

I understand that Intermediate term Investment Grade is making a supplemental capital gains distribution to holders of record as of march 25. I bought the fund in late Jan and am down just under 3%. Should I sell this fund to avoid the cap gains payout? After all - I haven't been in it long and then...
by sperry8
Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FDIC and NCUA Insurance Update
Replies: 2
Views: 885

They need to hurry this up. Rates are dropping and we can't lock in 1 yr CD's over $100k until they pass this. They are already late to the game.
by sperry8
Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Contest: call the market bottom as it occurs!!
Replies: 29
Views: 4462

S& P at 350. The market can't come back up until the next election when voters can bring some sanity to government. Are you friggin kidding me? Our last govt f***ed us! Now we're in debt and our hands our tied. And your upset at our current govt? I mean, nothing great from them so far... but to bel...
by sperry8
Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jon Stewart ridicules CNBC on Daily Show
Replies: 99
Views: 16762

This video is hilarious! A must watch, love it!!!!
by sperry8
Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any level when you will capitulate?
Replies: 107
Views: 17562

Adrian Nenu wrote:I'll capitulate and start selling stocks when the S&P 500 index hits 1400.

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.com
I'm with Adrian, I'm with you!!!
by sperry8
Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are Investment Grade bonds too risky right now?
Replies: 32
Views: 6362

Are Investment Grade bonds too risky right now?

Hello all, http://seekingalpha.com/article/122836-investment-grade-corporate-bonds-beware-the-risk The author of the above article states "If you own investment grade bonds or ETFs in this sector, then place a 10% stop loss on your entry price. If that price is violated, then sell. I would not purch...
by sperry8
Tue Feb 24, 2009 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adrian and Tolerable Loss
Replies: 56
Views: 9562

I can't believe you are still peddling this "tolerable loss x 2" garbage. Today, of all days, when the S&P 500 is down over 50% from its peak less than a year and a half ago, your inane dictum has once again been proven horribly wrongheaded. - the 50% loss is an average but severe bear market losse...
by sperry8
Wed Jan 28, 2009 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emigrant Direct and Dollar Direct
Replies: 44
Views: 9181

I've had the Penfed card for 6 mos too and love it. Their online website isnt the best, but they certainly offer great cash back.

Shane
by sperry8
Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portoflio Tool?
Replies: 1
Views: 759

Portoflio Tool?

Hello all, I currently use Mornigstar's "Portfolio Manager" tool to track my investments. However, I do not reinvest my dividends and capital gains payouts, but rather have them swept into a money market fund. I then use these funds to re-allocate when and where I want. It seems to me that their too...
by sperry8
Wed Dec 10, 2008 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GMAC going bust?
Replies: 10
Views: 2678

GMAC going bust?

Hello all,

I just read the following article:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081210/gmac_tarp_aid.html

Does this mean that if I have a CD with them and they are unable to become a bank holding company that my funds are at risk? Or will the FDIC insurance still be valid?

Thanks
Shane
by sperry8
Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Look at your Taxes & income page at Vanguard it could be
Replies: 7
Views: 1883

OK, here is what I found. They use the average cost basis method on their website, so if you have recently purchased new shares that are now in the money but they are mixed in with a fund that you've held for a long time and it shows a loss, then you likely will see short term losses as opposed to s...
by sperry8
Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Look at your Taxes & income page at Vanguard it could be
Replies: 7
Views: 1883

It isn't right for my account. They are showing short term losses of over $10,000 when they should show a $1,000 gain. I'm on the phone with them now to identify what is going on. This is crazy, I never though they could be so off!

Shane
by sperry8
Mon Dec 08, 2008 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are You A Market Timer? Post Confessions Here...
Replies: 73
Views: 11868

expat wrote:I am market timing with my weekly DCA amount by choosing the day of the week to invest.
I love it! This is exactly what I've been saying on other posts. Every single investment anyone makes is basically market timing.

Shane
by sperry8
Mon Dec 08, 2008 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 12/08 distribution estimates & ex-div dates
Replies: 14
Views: 3697

Re: Vanguard Distributions

"Looks like the entire lineup of index funds will be avoiding distributions." [/i] The above statement refers to capital-gain distributions. Every Vanguard fund will be making a dividend distribution . Dividend distributions can be worse than capital-gain distributions. This is because, unless qual...
by sperry8
Mon Dec 08, 2008 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone thinking of 100% equity in the next 6-12 months?
Replies: 193
Views: 30493

Re: Hi Petro.............

I've decided to ... shift part of my bond allocation to equities ... I want to take advantage of the current market prices. ..in all reality the market is cheap ... I'm however betting that the US & World Economy will pull out of the dumper ... to take advantage of this chance of a lifetime to purc...
by sperry8
Mon Dec 08, 2008 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 12/08 distribution estimates & ex-div dates
Replies: 14
Views: 3697

Re: Vanguard 12/08 distribution estimates & ex-div dates

Tough year for holders of Capital Opportunity (~10% capital gain distribution), Health Care (~7% capital gain distribution), and Primecap (~7% capital gain distribution). Once again, looks like the entire lineup of index funds will be avoiding distributions. Great news! - DDB I think its free money...
by sperry8
Sat Dec 06, 2008 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-free conversion: IRA to Roth
Replies: 14
Views: 4359

This brings up another question. If I convert my IRA to a Roth IRA, does the full conversion amount count as income? For example, Lets say I have $60,000 in income. I then am eligible to convert to a Roth in 2008 because I'm less than $100k and single. Let's say I have $60,000 in my IRA. Does this e...
by sperry8
Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone thinking of 100% equity in the next 6-12 months?
Replies: 193
Views: 30493

Adrian, whatever you do be sure to rebalance back into your AA. For example, if you held 50/50 allocation in US vs foreign equities, you will now be something like 52/48 US/foreign. What you should def do is bring that back to even. If you just plow all your new money into the best performing class ...
by sperry8
Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you buy your overseas flight tickets?
Replies: 13
Views: 2970

One of the best for int'l flights (not domestic) is www.vayama.com
by sperry8
Thu Nov 20, 2008 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15 year statistical history?
Replies: 24
Views: 3231

Well, in the first place, it's not true. The Dow needed 22 years to recover from the 1932 low back to its 1929 peak, so from 1929 until prices recovered in 1954 the return on the market index was negative. The above is not true. They are not including dividends. Including dividends brings it under ...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dan Weiner
Replies: 9
Views: 2602

I do not own EM--Vanguard or otherwise and never have but it seems to me that if I did I would buy after a severe crash on this part of the world. Then I would hold for the long haul and wait for it to grow and when I feel I made a decent return I would sell out and give the return back to the over...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Equity
Replies: 7
Views: 2263

Shane has a good point - it's YTD is very similar to a large cap international index fund. I do hold the fund in my Roth. While it is certainly not a mid/small cap international fund, Global Equity is my only exposure to mid/small international. Hence, I am holding onto Global Equity (w/ Wellington...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market target allocation
Replies: 35
Views: 6461

The problem with slicing as Taylor describes is trading costs and usually more niche sub categories have higher expense ratios. However in this unique case with Vanguard foreign expense ratios are lower than the top category and there are no trading costs if you lump sum in (and/or are Flagship wher...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest a lump sum now or wait for lower prices.
Replies: 28
Views: 6387

Re: benefit of DCA

Historically about 2/3 of the time DCA loses you money. Depends of course on exactly how long you DCA over, but in general you lose money as in general while you wait the market is climbing. I read that quote early this year from Fisher's book. So I went all in. June 1, 2008. Ugh. Sometimes the oth...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dan Weiner
Replies: 9
Views: 2602

When I first subscribed I was a newbie. I read a bunch of books and learned about indexing and low expense ratios and had all my holdings with Vanguard. But I didn't know if I had the right asset allocation and/or which funds to buy. I saw an ad from Dan who said they believed everything I believed,...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market target allocation
Replies: 35
Views: 6461

Is it rebalancing really? Let's say VGTSX in January 2008 is 20% EM and you decide to hold 20% EM and 80% Euro/Pacific instead of holding VGTSX. Letting EM slide like it did this year is considered "rebalancing" because market weight shifted? I don't know if that's the right term. *cue total market...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Equity
Replies: 7
Views: 2263

I think they added a new mgr recently. Too many cooks in the kitchen. It's a closet index fund now.

Shane
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market target allocation
Replies: 35
Views: 6461

The only reason I can see to hold different funds is expense ratio, especially if you hold enough to qualify at Admiral level. In the case of Vanguard you can buy European Stock Index (..22% regular, .12% Admiral) and Pacific Index (.22% regular, .12% Admiral) and VWO (.25% ER) and it would be cheap...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dan Weiner
Replies: 9
Views: 2602

Dan Weiner

I know many of you have heard of Dan Weiner. He runs a Vanguard newsletter that attempts to pick the best among Vanguard's active funds and have his subscribers follow his advice. I am a subscriber and follow some of his advice. I thought you'd be interested in a recent change he made. Last Friday O...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH into Primecap Core?
Replies: 4
Views: 1405

I like PRIMECAP. I have held their closed fund for years (PRIMECAP), but Primecap Core is a nice substitute. I dont see why you are chasing performance as the other poster discussed. Primecap Core is down... its a good buy low and hold candidate. I have about 50% of my portfolio indexed and the othe...
by sperry8
Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if we're like Japan:(
Replies: 37
Views: 6601

Since we cannot know, I diversify my holdings internationally in developed markets, emerging and US. This way, wherever the next Japan is (and it will show up somewhere) you are diversified and other markets will go up. 100% US is too risky.
by sperry8
Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns over the past 42 years are 1% annualized?
Replies: 31
Views: 4920

I believe RodC's numbers are about right. Over the last 40 years the real return on the US stock market has been about 4.5% year, which is much lower than the 7% long-term real return we so often hear about. It appears that over the forty year investing life-time of today's investors that the 7% re...
by sperry8
Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns over the past 42 years are 1% annualized?
Replies: 31
Views: 4920

I second Rod's "huh?" . . . I'm guessing that a) they didn't include dividends and b) they screwed up the inflation adjustment . . . Typical about dividends. The one I always come back to is the claim that someone who invested at the peak of the market in 1929 would not have come back to "even" unt...
by sperry8
Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns over the past 42 years are 1% annualized?
Replies: 31
Views: 4920

Sorry, I wrote "35" in my last post, I meant 3%.
by sperry8
Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns over the past 42 years are 1% annualized?
Replies: 31
Views: 4920

Good point. But even if he picked another time-frame, maybe one just a few years earlier that would make the returns 2% annualized over a 45 year time period. Maybe he could even go a few years earlier than that and find a date that shows 35 annualized over 50+ years. Those are still horrible return...
by sperry8
Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns over the past 42 years are 1% annualized?
Replies: 31
Views: 4920

Returns over the past 42 years are 1% annualized?

I was reading an article in another financial blog today (not sure if its ok to say their name/and or link, so I didn't) and the author said: "As an aside I saw an interesting comment on Realmoney.com Monday. A commentator said if you use the 1966 HIGH and adjust for inflation the stock market is up...
by sperry8
Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiree Spending Survey
Replies: 45
Views: 9503

Hi Rick, 1) I have been retired for 2 years. 2) I am spending more than I anticipated. 3) It's only been two years, but I am spending more on rent than anticipated (I am re-thinking my locale to save costs). I do not own a home (which ultimately may turn out to be a good thing since I may be able to...
by sperry8
Fri Oct 24, 2008 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any buyers out there II?
Replies: 58
Views: 9522

I bought each Wednesday for the last 3 weeks (always on dips). The amount I invested was .4% of my total portfolio each time (for a total move of 1.2% of my money into equities vs cash). I will continue to shift .4% on ea consecutive 5% dip from cash into equities. I'm currently down ~8% on my inves...
by sperry8
Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: INGDirect vs Everbank
Replies: 15
Views: 7038

Anything can happen, but I think the FDIC (Gov't) would have to backstop all dollars under the $250k limit. Imagine what would happen if they didn't Consumers would pull ALL the $10 TRILLION+ dollars they have in banks out. ALL of it! People would hoard cash literally in their mattress. Crime would ...
by sperry8
Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: INGDirect vs Everbank
Replies: 15
Views: 7038

I have accts at ING, Everbank and GMAC. I find ING to be the easiest to use online - although I cannot complain about Everbank. GMAC has been the hardest to use and made me jump through more hoops to work with them. Also - take a look at Citibank, they are offering 4% for 6 mo CD's and have money ma...
by sperry8
Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CD Rates
Replies: 12
Views: 2824

Eloan is offering 4.02% for a six mo CD.

Shane
by sperry8
Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your stock allocation is international, and why?
Replies: 90
Views: 17201

I am 50% US and 50% foreign. With recent losses in the market, I'm probably slightly higher US and (52/48) or something like that. I will ultimately rebalance and go back to 50/50. Even at 50/50 I'm making a significant bet on US stocks as they represent only ~40% of the world stocks. As well - I be...
by sperry8
Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roubini the Boglehead (never mind the Doom & Gloom)
Replies: 13
Views: 4143

Unbelievable post!!!!! I even get a newsletter from this Roubini guy. Dire predictions and he's just tearing the US gov't reaction to pieces. And here I find out he's cool over the long term! Just sits back in index funds like the rest of us!! Amazing!!!!!!! I always wondered why he never said what ...
by sperry8
Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, et al: Are you REALLY Staying the Course? (POLL)
Replies: 60
Views: 12054

I am staying the course... down over 30% in equities so far... but staying. And in fact, bought a very small % (1% of my assets) on Monday and again today. Will continue to go in with some of the cash I have on the sidelines each 5% drop in equities. Buy low... hold.... sell high.

Shane
by sperry8
Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it different this time? by DFA's Weston Wellington
Replies: 10
Views: 2798

Thank you SO MUCH for posting this. This is the sort of thing one needs to read during these times. I'm only 39 and haven't been through many bear markets in my investing lifetime (1 to be exact). This perspective helps.

Thanks again!
Shane
by sperry8
Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roubini Advocates this is Simply the Beginning
Replies: 60
Views: 16684

Roubini is a fear monger. Shake out all the companies with poor earnings and bad mgmt and then we'll be left with stronger companies with better earnings/dividend opptys. This is how we are paid in the market. The 70's was bad, but we came back. 87 bad, but we came back. The tech bust was bad, but w...
by sperry8
Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the current problems worse than 1973-74?
Replies: 54
Views: 11133

Shake out all the companies with poor earnings and bad mgmt and then we'll be left with stronger companies with better earnings/dividend opptys. This is how we are paid in the market. The 70's was bad, but we came back. 87 bad, but we came back. The tech bust was bad, but we came back. This time is ...
by sperry8
Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to pay while traveling abroad
Replies: 48
Views: 12886

I traveled the world for 8 mos last year... here are the best things to do: 1- Capital One. Best card for credit. 0% fees. With their reward program you'll even be earning almost 1% cash back (if you redeem the points for a travel statement credit). However, know this... Capital One has a weird frau...
by sperry8
Tue Sep 23, 2008 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Money Market at 4.05%
Replies: 107
Views: 28409

How long do you think rates will stay this way? I mean, rates jumped 2 percentage points in a week! Won't they come down just as fast?

Shane
by sperry8
Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $70,000 CD coming due; what next?
Replies: 18
Views: 4106

I have an idea that might be able to buy you some time while we wait for the Fed to possibly raise rates (or for long rates to go up w/o the Fed). Everbank offers a 4.76% rate in their YieldPledge money market acct for 3 mos. They only offer it for $50k max, but still its more than the others offer ...