Search found 539 matches

by Gufomel
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20353
Views: 2781680

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Woah blood bath!
by Gufomel
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Can someone direct me to which page(s) of this thread discuss UPRO/TMF rebalancing? I’ve seen mention that quarterly is suggested and want to read up more on it.
by Gufomel
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nasdaq officially 10k :shock:
by Gufomel
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Looking like a melt up into close. Wonder how much of this run the past couple weeks is due to bears getting crushed and being forced to cover shorts. Hard to understand how the S&P is now sitting at about 5% below all time highs, even with the stimulus and interest rates. But I don’t know nothing, ...
by Gufomel
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

US government said Thursday that 9.14 million more Americans filed for jobless claims in May, but said today 2.51 million jobs got created? Today's number wasn't even close to estimates, so much for "market being forward looking" [distracting meme removed by admin LadyGeek] Wait so the market has b...
by Gufomel
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

US government said Thursday that 9.14 million more Americans filed for jobless claims in May, but said today 2.51 million jobs got created? Today's number wasn't even close to estimates, so much for "market being forward looking" [distracting meme removed by admin LadyGeek] Wait so the market has b...
by Gufomel
Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Maybe we'll see a busrt up towards the end of the trading session. You want MORE than the gains we already have today? 2%+ isn't good enough for you? :happy How about 3200 on the S&P? That would be nice. When we hit that, we’ll be up almost 1000 points from the closing low. Your wish has been grant...
by Gufomel
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Great day! My only surprise is that the analysts thought the jobs report would be negative. What exactly were the smoking? They clearly are instacarting too much and don’t get out of the house. My area in CA is way busier, businesses are open again, I see all kinds of people when I grab my morning ...
by Gufomel
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Great day! My only surprise is that the analysts thought the jobs report would be negative. What exactly were the smoking? They clearly are instacarting too much and don’t get out of the house. My area in CA is way busier, businesses are open again, I see all kinds of people when I grab my morning ...
by Gufomel
Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yahoo Finance headline: “US payrolls unexpectedly climbed by 2.5 million in May Lots of confusion as payrolls were expected to fall.” People’s attempts to predict the future and the market continue to be thwarted. The market has been rising for weeks in the face of continual grim economic projection...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you calculate equity exposure with leveraged funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 362

Re: How do you calculate equity exposure with leveraged funds?

You're missing the third dimension, which is cash. 90/10 is really 90/10/0. 165/135 is really 165/135/-200. This probably does not translate to The 90/10 paradigm, because most investors do not use leverage. Up to you to assess whether or not it still allocates risk and return appropriately, as tha...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you calculate equity exposure with leveraged funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 362

Re: How do you calculate equity exposure with leveraged funds?

You're missing the third dimension, which is cash. 90/10 is really 90/10/0. 165/135 is really 165/135/-200. This probably does not translate to The 90/10 paradigm, because most investors do not use leverage. Up to you to assess whether or not it still allocates risk and return appropriately, as tha...
by Gufomel
Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Now that the common opinion seems to be that the fed will always save the day so there’s little risk of a lengthy 50% bear market, the contrarian in me says now we’re primed for it to happen. Of course, it may not actually happen for a decade or two or three. So the Boglehead in me will stay the cou...
by Gufomel
Wed May 27, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 264
Views: 21053

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Nvm, missed that this thread was already bumped
by Gufomel
Tue May 19, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I think I’ve seen discussion here and elsewhere about targeting volatility by using last 20 days (as an example) volatility. Is that correct? Has that been shown to be predictive of upcoming volatility? How does that compare to using something like VIX? Seems like VIX would be more forward looking.
by Gufomel
Tue May 19, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Please go beyond idle chitchat and feel free to criticize where I have it wrong. I'll even start. In my goal of exploring volatility drag, I didn't provide realistic daily changes. What if markets moved -8%, +5%, -5%, -10% ... like the S&P 500 did on March 9 to 12. Net loss -17%. https://finance.ya...
by Gufomel
Mon May 18, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WFW (Work from Wherever)
Replies: 70
Views: 6598

Re: WFW (Work from Wherever)

One thing I thought of recently is if you’re a typical “desk job” employee who relies on a company laptop for your work, what happens if your computer crashes or otherwise needs physical tech support? If you’re in another state (or country!) you have to go back home just to get your laptop fixed? I...
by Gufomel
Sat May 16, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WFW (Work from Wherever)
Replies: 70
Views: 6598

Re: WFW (Work from Wherever)

One thing I thought of recently is if you’re a typical “desk job” employee who relies on a company laptop for your work, what happens if your computer crashes or otherwise needs physical tech support? If you’re in another state (or country!) you have to go back home just to get your laptop fixed? It...
by Gufomel
Sat May 16, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks for responding. Huge thread that I’ve jumped around on, and didn’t catch that borrowing costs had been mentioned on this page. So 1% over RFR plus expense ratio of 0.92%. That makes sense. The overnight LIBOR was around 2-2.5% middle of last year, so total expense would have been around 4-4....
by Gufomel
Sat May 16, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks for responding. Huge thread that I’ve jumped around on, and didn’t catch that borrowing costs had been mentioned on this page. So 1% over RFR plus expense ratio of 0.92%. That makes sense. The overnight LIBOR was around 2-2.5% middle of last year, so total expense would have been around 4-4....
by Gufomel
Sat May 16, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks for responding. Huge thread that I’ve jumped around on, and didn’t catch that borrowing costs had been mentioned on this page. So 1% over RFR plus expense ratio of 0.92%. That makes sense. The overnight LIBOR was around 2-2.5% middle of last year, so total expense would have been around 4-4....
by Gufomel
Fri May 15, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks for responding. Huge thread that I’ve jumped around on, and didn’t catch that borrowing costs had been mentioned on this page. So 1% over RFR plus expense ratio of 0.92%. That makes sense. The overnight LIBOR was around 2-2.5% middle of last year, so total expense would have been around 4-4....
by Gufomel
Fri May 15, 2020 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What’s the total expense for UPRO? Expense Ratio: 0.92% - I’m assuming this does not include borrowing costs, correct? Borrowing costs: I’m assuming there’s a cost to obtain 3x leverage. Is there a way to see what this amount is, or roughly calculate it? Dividend: It looks like the dividend yield i...
by Gufomel
Thu May 14, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What’s the total expense for UPRO? Expense Ratio: 0.92% - I’m assuming this does not include borrowing costs, correct? Borrowing costs: I’m assuming there’s a cost to obtain 3x leverage. Is there a way to see what this amount is, or roughly calculate it? Dividend: It looks like the dividend yield i...
by Gufomel
Thu May 14, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 624058

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What’s the total expense for UPRO? Expense Ratio: 0.92% - I’m assuming this does not include borrowing costs, correct? Borrowing costs: I’m assuming there’s a cost to obtain 3x leverage. Is there a way to see what this amount is, or roughly calculate it? Dividend: It looks like the dividend yield is...
by Gufomel
Thu May 14, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 44097

Re: Why international?

International finally had one of its rare days in the sun yesterday, “outperforming” (thats is, declining less than) US by about 1%. So what does International do today? Underperforms US by about 1%, just like the good ol’ broken record that it is. Still holding on with a death grip to my 30% intern...
by Gufomel
Thu May 07, 2020 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11613

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

Hope your friend also times his selling correctly. It’s all just noise until you cash out 🙂 I trust the index will be in a better spot 30 years from now then any specific stock. Why would you make the statement that "I trust the index will be in a better spot 30 years from now then any specific sto...
by Gufomel
Thu May 07, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Worth Buying a Used Phone on Swappa?
Replies: 28
Views: 1663

Re: Worth Buying a Used Phone on Swappa?

Has anyone bought phones off of Swappa? There are phones that have a few scratches on them for 40ish% off on a phone that is only a year old. The only thing I am worried about is the battery but can a phones battery really be that bad after only a year of use? Has anyone had good or bad experiences...
by Gufomel
Tue May 05, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20353
Views: 2781680

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

373 pages and no one’s realized yet that we’re free falling in an anti-gravity machine?
by Gufomel
Mon May 04, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Based on Asset Amount
Replies: 14
Views: 912

Re: Asset Allocation Based on Asset Amount

Edit: While typing this response, I see that a couple others have responded referencing lifecycle investing. I’ll go ahead and leave my thoughts and example below though. I’ve recently come across the strategy termed Lifecycle Investing. Here’s just one thread on it. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum...
by Gufomel
Sat May 02, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?
Replies: 61
Views: 4262

Re: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?

Sounds like you substantially underperformed passive stock investing for the month of April. So rather than think in absolute percentages, imagine continuing to underperform by about a third, and think whether there might be a better (and simpler) way. I believe this is to another person? SPY close...
by Gufomel
Sat May 02, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?
Replies: 61
Views: 4262

Re: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?

Sounds like you substantially underperformed passive stock investing for the month of April. So rather than think in absolute percentages, imagine continuing to underperform by about a third, and think whether there might be a better (and simpler) way. I believe this is to another person? SPY close...
by Gufomel
Fri May 01, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20353
Views: 2781680

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Corsair wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 10:22 am Elon Musk just tweeted "Tesla stock price is too high imo" :mrgreen: TSLA down -7%
Wow what in the world? Is that the first time a CEO has ever publicly said their own company is valued too high? Much less through a tweet?
by Gufomel
Fri May 01, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 44097

Re: Why international?

I love International because I get to buy low every single time I make a purchase. Literally every time. If US has done well, International has been flat or down. If US has done poorly, International has done poorly or worse. On the rare occasion that International outperforms US in a single day, it...
by Gufomel
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t this the Ultimate Expression of Uncertainty?
Replies: 13
Views: 1120

Re: Isn’t this the Ultimate Expression of Uncertainty?

I guess my “paranoia” about what they could be trying to hide is just how bad it will be Like I said... I don't think they know with any degree of certainly...let's say they use your approach of using the last 4 weeks and forecasting Q2... which is great if everything stays the same... if it gets m...
by Gufomel
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1252
Views: 115437

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Yes, I DCA all of these allocations as they went down. Yes, most holdings are between $250-$500. So lets take Wendy's buys (date bought, how far up as of 4/29) and total shares bought, total market value, total cost and average increase over all procurements 03/12/2020 +35.18% 03/16/2020 +51.18% 03...
by Gufomel
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1252
Views: 115437

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I took 10% of my portfolio and started to invest in individual stocks at the start of March. I now have over 200 stocks with double digit gains and another 20 with over 100% increases. On the other hand, I also have approx. 20 stocks in losing positions, all but 3 are in single digit losses, only o...
by Gufomel
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 264
Views: 21053

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

GDP contracts 5%, market up 2%. OP, at what point do you decide to “get back in” if bad economic data doesn’t lead to declining stock prices (or if stocks actually continue to rise before good economic data starts coming out)?
by Gufomel
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1QTR GDP worse than expected; Market says, 'hold my beer,' futures up.
Replies: 6
Views: 769

Re: 1QTR GDP worse than expected; Market says, 'hold my beer,' futures up.

I already suspected (but now am convinced after the past few weeks) that published analyst expectations indicate very little about the expectations that are actually priced in by all market participants.
by Gufomel
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this market timing or something else?
Replies: 12
Views: 672

Re: Is this market timing or something else?

If you are content to keep a 1 to 2 year EF even if we enter a bull market, then this is not really market timing (though still sub-optimal compared to if you had recognized your need to have a larger EF before hitting a bear market, but that’s not actionable at this point). I admit that one reason ...
by Gufomel
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?
Replies: 99
Views: 6317

Re: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?

Companies and management teams who still, in 2020, need to physically see butts in a chair all 40 hours of the work week in order to assess productivity will increasingly attract employees who need to have their butts seen in a chair for 40 hours a week in order to be productive. Productive employee...
by Gufomel
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68409

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Interest rate risk it is an idiosyncratic risk (i.e. diversifiable by the investor) and not a systematic risk: systematic risks are compensated by an efficient market, but idiosyncratic risks are not compensated. Diversifiable indeed. For example, I recommend diversifying durations! Or go with inte...
by Gufomel
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?
Replies: 99
Views: 6317

Re: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?

Allowing more remote work had come up again and again in employee suggestions and engagement surveys. But there was quite a lot of reluctance from managers, so nothing much happened. Until COVID happened... Now we have close to 95% of employees working from home. I think it will be tough to put tha...
by Gufomel
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it true Investors miss out on the best days in the stock market?
Replies: 5
Views: 704

Re: Is it true Investors miss out on the best days in the stock market?

You’re comparing fees that are paid to an advisor’s pocket to stable investments that reduce volatility in a portfolio?

To answer your question, yes money that you do not hold in stocks miss out on the stock market’s best days.
by Gufomel
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752361

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The Tiger King appears to have unleashed his pets on the Bears.
by Gufomel
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68409

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I was trying to understand if I could get that from a bond fund (which is easier to buy/manage/etc.). Okay, well you can definitely get it with TWO bond funds. I'd be happy to give you some detail if you want it. That's what I've been asking for... And attempted to lay out such a scenario in my len...
by Gufomel
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68409

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Again for clarity - I understand how an individual long term treasury is similar to an EE Bond. It will pay a fixed rate, for a fixed duration, and isn't subject to price fluctuations - so isn't subject to volatility and interest risk. Moving on... It's important to get this right. An individual lo...
by Gufomel
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68409

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

why only the first 20% and not all? i'm playing around with some numbers in PV and basically every 10 year window going back to the 1970s, you're better off with 100% of your bond allocation being in LTT. LTT are obviously more volatile than intermediate bonds, but where they really shine is every ...
by Gufomel
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68409

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

The chart indicates that this bond starting at 1% (close to the average YTM of the TLT ETF) would experience about a 24% increase in value. However, the effective duration of the TLT ETF is only about 19 years, so something seems off. The proper measure for the x-axis of the chart is the weighted a...