Search found 1847 matches

by dmcmahon
Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you capture [investment trade] Confirmations?
Replies: 20
Views: 1561

Re: Do you capture [investment trade] Confirmations?

I still get paper confirms and statements. Call me old-fashioned. They are meticulously filed.
by dmcmahon
Sun Jul 07, 2013 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise of Smart Beta(fundamental indexing)-Economist
Replies: 30
Views: 4008

Re: The Rise of Smart Beta(fundamental indexing)-Economist

Apart from stock splits & stock dividends, cannot the same thing be said for price weighting? You are right. Price weighting is equivalent to cap weighting, just with a different starting point. Once all of the stocks are purchased, it seems like there should be no penalty beyond things like buybac...
by dmcmahon
Sun Jul 07, 2013 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise of Smart Beta(fundamental indexing)-Economist
Replies: 30
Views: 4008

Re: The Rise of Smart Beta(fundamental indexing)-Economist

Apart from stock splits & stock dividends, cannot the same thing be said for price weighting? No. Supposing that the price of some component of the index skyrockets, rebalancing will require selling it off and buying whatever has been sinking. Now suppose several components seesaw up and down this ...
by dmcmahon
Sun Jun 23, 2013 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest suddenly has become confusing
Replies: 32
Views: 3176

Re: Invest suddenly has become confusing

I'm thinking that folks have forgotten all the times that their bond funds lost money in the past 20 years. Apparently, there was not as much anxiety about losing money in bond funds when it happened to them in the past. Bonds have been in a bull market for 30 years so significant losses are a dist...
by dmcmahon
Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Tanking
Replies: 99
Views: 9913

Re: Bond Funds Tanking

joe8d wrote:
Frengo wrote:With CD's that low it is not really worth the trouble.
You can get almost 1% with a regular savings and not have to deal with penalties, break-even, etc.
:thumbsup
:thumbsup :thumbsup
by dmcmahon
Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a realistic worst-case scenario for TIPS fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 5508

Re: What's a realistic worst-case scenario for TIPS fund?

If investors for any reason lose confidence in our economy or government, such as happened with Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal during the financial crisi, TIPS would be expected to underperform other bonds as rates skyrocketed relative to inflation. I'm scratching my head trying to figure out w...
by dmcmahon
Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: buying a new laptop
Replies: 53
Views: 7085

Re: buying a new laptop

Apparently Apple's trackpad is integrated to the UI such that it has awareness of what's on the screen near the pointer. On Windows and Linux, the trackpad driver runs below the UI at a device level, and is blind to what's on the screen. I find it unusable and reluctantly drag a mouse around with my...
by dmcmahon
Sat Jun 15, 2013 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: buying a new laptop
Replies: 53
Views: 7085

Re: buying a new laptop

I'll ditto the comments about SSD and hi res displays. I'll add this: check the usability of the keyboard and trackpad carefully, they're your primary points of contact with the machine, and can't be fixed if you don't like 'em. I was going to post a rant but instead I'll note the following: 1. Ever...
by dmcmahon
Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Net Present Value] NPV for Bogleheads
Replies: 80
Views: 5634

Re: [Net Present Value] NPV for Bogleheads

The mistake I see most often is not comparing investments of equivalent risk, most commonly seen as mistaken (IMO) use of an investment return rate (from an investment much more or less risky than the mortgage loan) as the discount rate. IMO an investment of truly equivalent risk would be to take th...
by dmcmahon
Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads reducing duration of bond holdings?
Replies: 15
Views: 3229

Re: Are Bogleheads reducing duration of bond holdings?

I'm a yes to the OP, though re the earlier poll this did not represent a change in strategy since the election so I'm one of the no votes . Over the years that rates have been dropping I've allowed my bond ladder to unwind without rolling the rungs, in effect allowing the duration to be less than 2 ...
by dmcmahon
Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Replies: 151
Views: 20042

Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Dang it, my shorts are doing WAY better than my longs :( http://gyazo.com/2cc08406a4250b960f0ebab395c8a8ae.png?1364603528 Thankfully I am long on all of these in real life :) That HPQ short is a widow maker. Despite that (and losing 25% of my investor's money) I seem to have moved up from dead last.
by dmcmahon
Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All Stocks Anyone?
Replies: 64
Views: 9602

Re: All Stocks Anyone?

animule wrote: Any time you see these "I'm 100% stocks" or "All Stocks Anyone?" posts as well as the "Do You Really Need Bonds?" threads, you know you may be near an inflection point.
The number of such threads appearing lately is enough to make even a bond bear like me question his thinking... :twisted:
by dmcmahon
Fri May 24, 2013 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Commodities Hedge Against Inflation?
Replies: 63
Views: 4811

Re: Do Commodities Hedge Against Inflation?

Bonds provide income. Stocks and real estate provide real growth and income. Commodities provide no income and best keep up with inflation, but they might provide a portfolio benefit from occasional low correlation. Some might argue that bonds don't produce income either, at today's interst rates. ...
by dmcmahon
Wed May 15, 2013 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence
Replies: 172
Views: 17206

Re: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence

AS to the rubbish comment. The simple equation I will show will show how why this is simple common sense. Don't need anything more than this equation Expected Returns = Expected Cash Flows/Price So if you have the same PRICE (market value) the firm with higher expected cash flows (higher profitabil...
by dmcmahon
Mon May 13, 2013 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SF BayArea - Buy Home or not
Replies: 45
Views: 3733

Re: SF BayArea - Buy Home or not

That rent/buy NPV analysis looks questionable. Any such analysis is going to be very sensitive to the terminal value. It's also going to be somewhat sensitive to inflation. IMO the analysis is assuming a high rate of return on investments and then using that to discount the cash flows on an investme...
by dmcmahon
Mon May 06, 2013 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: calculating SS benefit: $25k/yr x4 yr vs $100k yr once
Replies: 20
Views: 2244

Re: calculating SS benefit: $25k/yr x4 yr vs $100k yr once

Exception #2: Your earnings from age 60 onward are not indexed for wage inflation. So earning the maximum in those years actually counts for more, assuming wage inflation is positive (because, if they were indexed, they'd have to be indexed downward ). Can you please explain this? Seems like a max ...
by dmcmahon
Sun May 05, 2013 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College is Totally Worth It (at these schools)
Replies: 39
Views: 3947

Re: College is Totally Worth It (at these schools)

When we contrast the four-year cost figure versus say, household median income figures for the years 1975 through 2011, we see an interesting comparison arise. Firstly, note that the median household income rose about 424.2% during that time (source: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/histo...
by dmcmahon
Sat May 04, 2013 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only after a 150% stock market rally in 4 years...
Replies: 115
Views: 14804

Re: Only after a 150% stock market rally in 4 years...

Perhaps we young investors know that US Treasuries at 2% aren't going to get us to retirement in real dollars in a country with a major aging demographic problem and long term debt issues. I'll pass on loaning Uncle Sam money at 2%, thanks. Amen bro - I don't think it's market timing to pass on an ...
by dmcmahon
Sat May 04, 2013 5:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When you reach your number and keep working
Replies: 71
Views: 8340

Re: When you reach your number and keep working

IMO, you need clarity of thought about what you really mean by "reaching your number". Using that phrase connotes the idea that there is a precise dollar amount beyond which the marginal utility of wealth is zero. I doubt that is true for most people. I agree. It's not a precise target. I know that...
by dmcmahon
Wed May 01, 2013 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate profit margins - sustainable?
Replies: 19
Views: 1472

Corporate profit margins - sustainable?

I thought the following article might be of interest. I've been concerned that corporate profit levels (and therefore stock market valuations) might be at unsustainable levels, yet I've had a nagging feeling that the raw profit/GDP ratio was bound to be misleading due to globalization. The author at...
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 29, 2013 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Form 8606 and Turbo Tax
Replies: 17
Views: 1421

Re: Form 8606 and Turbo Tax

We get that you didn't file 8606. The remaining point of our confusion is, did you report the rollover distribution, for which you would have received a 1099R?
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 29, 2013 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Form 8606 and Turbo Tax
Replies: 17
Views: 1421

Re: Form 8606 and Turbo Tax

I've had to do a 1040X for an unrelated error. It's straightforward - TurboTax will do it, simply indicate that you want to create an amended return instead of a regular one, then go through the steps to enter the differences vs the return you filed. If you didn't report the distribution for the rol...
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Form 8606 and Turbo Tax
Replies: 17
Views: 1421

Re: Form 8606 and Turbo Tax

I've never had a problem. I'm assuming the OP is seeing the "distribution" reported as extra income, subject to a double tax. This shouldn't happen - it should show, on lines 15a and b, the total amount of $5k and the taxable amount of 0. You do need to get through the income section and into the de...
by dmcmahon
Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX Flatline at 0.01 - is the buck about to break?
Replies: 22
Views: 2406

Re: VMMXX Flatline at 0.01 - is the buck about to break?

A more realistic worry is that theses funds will end up exposing you to floating nav per new regs.
by dmcmahon
Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Frontline--The Retirement Gamble
Replies: 325
Views: 50919

Re: Frontline--The Retirement Gamble

I think the show might have been better as a series hitting some of the issues raised in more depth, to wit (a) decline in traditional pension schemes, (b) high fees, (c) insufficient savings rates, and finally (d) the effects of the serial-bubble economy we've had during most of these folks peak ea...
by dmcmahon
Sat Apr 13, 2013 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] My Tax-Advantaged Accounts > $3m?
Replies: 55
Views: 4935

Re: [Poll] My Tax-Advantaged Accounts > $3m?

As a regular W2 worker, you'd have a better shot accumulating a pension benefit of equivalent value in a government DB plan. You'd certainly have a good shot if you had the DB plan and a DC plan. But in a job with just a DC plan, most have almost no possibility of saving $51k per year - try $17-20k ...
by dmcmahon
Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Franchise Tax Board letters to someone else at my address!
Replies: 2
Views: 1046

Franchise Tax Board letters to someone else at my address!

I've been receiving letters from the California Franchise Tax board addressed to someone else (who I've never met) at my home address. I've been returning them unopened with WRONG ADDRESS - RETURN TO SENDER written on the envelope. Yet the letter keep on a' comin'. I can only guess at the contents a...
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Incorrect total basis on form 8606 for a prior year
Replies: 36
Views: 9130

Re: Incorrect total basis on form 8606 for a prior year

Duckie wrote:
dmcmahon wrote:Question: what address should she send the corrected 8606 forms to?
The same address she would send her 1040 form (the one if "not enclosing a check or money order").
Not the address for amended returns then. Because we are talking about fixing forms for 5 years prior.
by dmcmahon
Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Incorrect total basis on form 8606 for a prior year
Replies: 36
Views: 9130

Re: Incorrect total basis on form 8606 for a prior year

I have a friend whose just discovered she made a very similar mistake. Fortunately no tax is due in the earlier years - she caught it for 2012 when she rolled the IRA over into a Roth, so the tax is due this year.

Question: what address should she send the corrected 8606 forms to?
by dmcmahon
Sat Apr 06, 2013 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Revoking our revocable A-B Trusts
Replies: 13
Views: 2665

Re: Revoking our revocable A-B Trusts

If the trusts are revocable why are you doing extra tax returns and dealing with K1s? Or is that a concern off in the future? FWIW I think you may be on to something - given the higher limits now and the way the law gives a couple a large combined limit, the classic A-B structure makes sense in fewe...
by dmcmahon
Tue Apr 02, 2013 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis and Stockton California
Replies: 18
Views: 2153

Re: Munis and Stockton California

"Unfunded obligations" is one of the most misleading claims out there. No time period is given (is this per year, over an infinite horizon or what?), no context is given (is $500 billion over a long time period a lot in a $15 trillion a year economy?), almost no obligation is funded (what's your un...
by dmcmahon
Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401(k) versus 401(k) for high income investors?
Replies: 44
Views: 4988

Re:

I think those who are in their peak earning years are usually better off with a regular 401K because they are deducting taxes at their marginal rate that will later be paid at rates less than their marginal rate. Assuming a retiree is living off nothing but Roth 401K and 401K distributions, he won'...
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - young military investor with family [Military]
Replies: 23
Views: 1647

Re: Help - young military investor with family

Although not directly responsive to your questions, this thread on military investing may be of general interest to you:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 10&t=48901

Thank you for your service.
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying versus renting; Trulia says buying is 44% cheaper
Replies: 37
Views: 4131

Re: Buying versus renting; Trulia says buying is 44% cheaper

Yes, they were comparing apples to apples, very like homes in the same neighborhood so that it would be a valid model. They were specifically trying NOT to do what you mentioned. That may be true, but the point is that there's still a consumption aspect to the decision. When I bought my house I was...
by dmcmahon
Thu Mar 28, 2013 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2229

Re: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?

Wins by a whopping 1% after 30 years, using a best-case estimate of the ER, and (if its a stock) neglecting the negative cap gains treatment. Discounting that extra $1 back 30 years to present value, it's near enough to zero. Pass.
by dmcmahon
Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2229

Re: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?

A variable annuity might make tax sense for REITs, because REIT income is almost all taxed at your top rate. However, given the higher cost of the variable annuity compared with the low cost of the mutual fund or ETF, it would take a very long time for the tax deferral to outweigh the expenses. Tha...
by dmcmahon
Thu Mar 28, 2013 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying more of international?
Replies: 13
Views: 1749

Re: Buying more of international?

Wow, that dividend really fell off a cliff! What's up with that? Total over 2012 was 2-3x higher than the 50 cents implied by the most recent dividend. Was going to buy after the dividend so as not to buy a distribution. But if this is the new normal...ugh.
by dmcmahon
Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2229

Re: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?

...The problem is, interest rates are so low that even saving the 55% (temporarily) .... If you're talking about a short time horizon, then the savings is modest/temporary, but if it's longer, then the compounded growth on the tax savings is not temporary but yes partly dependent on current yields....
by dmcmahon
Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2229

Re: Has the tax increase pushed anyone over into Annuity?

I seriously considered them last year, and the door is still open. It's not just the higher investment taxes I'm facing - California's income taxes also apply and were raised last year retroactive to Jan 1 2012. The state income tax ranges from 9.3-13.3% and applies to all income, including capital ...
by dmcmahon
Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling fractional ETF shares
Replies: 16
Views: 4117

Re: Selling fractional ETF shares

How big a problem is it to let the dividends accumulate as cash and then reinvest them along with new money as you go along? With typical payouts in the 2% range, you're only talking about $200 over a year on a $10k account. If the concern is rebalancing, can't you mostly get that done with new mone...
by dmcmahon
Fri Mar 15, 2013 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX vs VTI (mutual fund vs etf)
Replies: 7
Views: 6594

Re: VTSAX vs VTI (mutual fund vs etf)

I like the intra-day liquidity of ETFs if I'm shifting assets. It's frustrating having to wait for the market closing price on a Mutual Fund, especially over the past few years when you could see relatively large price swings during the trading day. It was especially frustrating to have to wait seve...
by dmcmahon
Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ron Delegge vs John Bogle on ETFs?
Replies: 11
Views: 1878

Re: Ron Delegge vs John Bogle on ETFs?

As a long term investor in ETFs, I don't consider it a problem that hedge funds invest heavily in them with high turnover. That lowers the bid-ask spreads! Ditto. I appreciate the liquidity and price discovery function, and don't mind if some fractional amount is skimmed from my trades because I do...
by dmcmahon
Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TAX question - doing tax myself - confused
Replies: 17
Views: 1626

Re: TAX question - doing tax myself - confused

I'll caveat my responses by noting that I'm not a tax expert, not an accountant, and not a lawyer. Just "some guy on the internet". Heck, I could be a dog! 1. I invested some $$ in stocks/bonds using wells-trade retail site last tax-year (2012) but never SOLD any shares - DO I STILL NEED TO REPORT T...
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 03, 2013 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I adjust cost basis in turbo tax for a wash sale?
Replies: 4
Views: 909

Re: How can I adjust cost basis in turbo tax for a wash sale

The statement from my broker is, shall we say, less than clear on the point. I see this transaction commingled on a list that includes others involving more recently acquired shares. The list doesn't provide specific values for the relevant "box" - instead, a general statement is made about the list...
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 03, 2013 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I adjust cost basis in turbo tax for a wash sale?
Replies: 4
Views: 909

How can I adjust cost basis in turbo tax for a wash sale?

Some years ago, due to a fat-fingered mistake trading some shares, I ended up entering a sale instead of a buy. So I had to buy back the shares, plus make my original buy. Unfortunately, this left me with a small wash sale loss on the block of shares sold, which I've kept track of until finally sell...
by dmcmahon
Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not short Treasuries>?
Replies: 17
Views: 2782

Re: why not short Treasuries>?

larryswedroe wrote:ftrobin
How else to you propose the typical investor bet against Treasuries?
Larry
How about a mortgage? :)
by dmcmahon
Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 3771

Re: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years

Sheepdogs approximate 50% increase in 12 years seems about right. Only major item not on the list is housing. If you're renting, at least in my area, you've seen about that much of an increase. If you are looking to buy a house, it's far far worse. Almost as bad would be college costs.
by dmcmahon
Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need 2013 1040es and 760es
Replies: 14
Views: 1068

Re: Need 2013 1040es and 760es

You can use "open form" feature to open up 1040-ES voucher 1 and use "right click" on each field to override the entries. Thanks, I tried a variant of that and was unable to type into the field, but hadn't thought to right click. Sheesh - what's next, features that work when you depress a foot-peda...
by dmcmahon
Thu Feb 14, 2013 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need 2013 1040es and 760es
Replies: 14
Views: 1068

Re: Need 2013 1040es and 760es

Did TT do that all by itself, or did you have a hand in it? Did TT just make up the numbers out of whole cloth? A bit of both. It makes up the number using some estimation formula based on the prior year's tax. However since mom's income is variable, it's of little use. I haven't used TT recently, ...