Search found 2266 matches

by dumbmoney
Sat Mar 16, 2013 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bit Rot: A Threat To Digital Data?
Replies: 24
Views: 2769

Re: Bit Rot: A Threat To Digital Data?

Media will of course wear out eventually, but even that seems a bit overblown. The big advantage of digital is of course that you can always make an exact copy, allowing the data to outlast the media, unlike analog which will degrade when copied. But even then I have been able to succesfully read h...
by dumbmoney
Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP Story: "Study Sheds New Light on Funds' Investing Costs"
Replies: 13
Views: 1593

Re: AP Story: "Study Sheds New Light on Funds' Investing Cos

Most trades made by actively managed funds are discretionary. If the fund manager is competent, the trades are on average profitable. The "cost" of the trade is irrelevant.

This story makes it sound like funds could increase their return 1-2% if they just completely stopped trading.
by dumbmoney
Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation-adjusted S&P500
Replies: 12
Views: 1738

Re: Inflation-adjusted S&P500

Much ado has been made about the Dow Jones being at an "all time high" while some have pointed out that, after accounting for inflation, it is nowhere near the all-time high of 2000. I was wondering if anyone knows how high S&P500 would have to go to reach its all-time high, after accounting for in...
by dumbmoney
Sun Mar 10, 2013 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's going on with international?
Replies: 46
Views: 5769

Re: What's going on with international?

Karamatsu wrote:Another factor in the mix is that VEU is 13% Japan and with the return of the LDP to power anything denominated in yen has essentially crashed, losing 20% of its (dollar) value in six months.
Eh...MSCI Japan is up 15% over the last 6 months. That's better than the U.S. stock market (11%).
by dumbmoney
Sun Mar 10, 2013 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors lag S&P 500 over past 15 years
Replies: 23
Views: 2418

Re: Investors lag S&P 500 over past 15 years

Eric, how can investor A sell a share of stock without investor B buying a share of stock? Investor A can spend the proceeds however she wants, but the share of stock remains in the market and its return counts as part of the return of the market. (There's some M&A activity, bankruptcy, new share i...
by dumbmoney
Sat Feb 16, 2013 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [domain name stolen]
Replies: 11
Views: 2003

Re: How to steal a domain name

Pretty poor security by Network Solutions to tie your authentication to a third party email system which they have absolutely no control over. Are they going to get your domain back for you? Nope. No refund on the registration fee either. As far as Network Solutions is concerned, it was an authoriz...
by dumbmoney
Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [domain name stolen]
Replies: 11
Views: 2003

[domain name stolen]

Due to a combination of inattention and poor security on the part of Network Solutions, I had a domain name stolen. It was a 4-letter .com name, which made it just valuable enough to be worth stealing. How it happened: I used a Yahoo email address to register the domain. Big mistake. Since Yahoo del...
by dumbmoney
Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shedding Light on Invisible Costs:Trading Costs& Performance
Replies: 20
Views: 1931

Re: Shedding Light on Invisible Costs:Trading Costs& Perform

There's a fundamental tradeoff between tracking error and return. An index fund with high tracking error due to slow trading (e.g. using natural fund flows to conform to the index rather than massive one shot trades) should be able to outperform in the proverbial long run. But then you have to trust...
by dumbmoney
Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would an index fund pay capital gains?
Replies: 11
Views: 2034

Re: Why would an index fund pay capital gains?

Fund outflows (or lack of inflows) are a possibility. Morningstar shows a potential capital gains exposure of 64% (i.e. hypothetical distribution if the fund were completely liquidated). For comparison, it's 41% for Vanguard 500 and 20% for Vanguard Total Stock Market.
by dumbmoney
Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shedding Light on Invisible Costs:Trading Costs& Performance
Replies: 20
Views: 1931

Re: Shedding Light on Invisible Costs:Trading Costs& Perform

For an index fund it would seem very easy to compute/estimate trading costs: Index return - fund return. That doesn't capture trading costs due to index changes. Since index changes are announced in advance, the trading of index funds affects the index return. The bottom line question is: does the ...
by dumbmoney
Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund
Replies: 187
Views: 36895

Re: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond F

Everytime this subject come up, I consider David Swensen's thoughts from the excellent book "Unconventional Success": "By asset size, foreign-currency-denominated bonds represent a formidable market, falling just short of the aggregate market value of U.S.-dollar-denominated debt. Yet, in spite of ...
by dumbmoney
Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund
Replies: 187
Views: 36895

Re: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond F

Everytime this subject come up, I consider David Swensen's thoughts from the excellent book "Unconventional Success": "By asset size, foreign-currency-denominated bonds represent a formidable market, falling just short of the aggregate market value of U.S.-dollar-denominated debt. Yet, in spite of ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund
Replies: 187
Views: 36895

Re: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond F

SSSS wrote: This fund does not provide currency diversification. Some of the bonds are USD-denominated, and the rest are covered by USD hedging contracts.
Foreign dollar bonds are included in the existing Total Bond Market fund. The new international bond fund holds only non-dollar bonds.
by dumbmoney
Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund
Replies: 187
Views: 36895

Re: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond F

ftobin wrote:Would it not be unreasonable to think of hedged international bonds just like domestic corporate bonds? There is no currency risk, just default risk (and rate risk, of course).
Not exactly, because interest rate risk is different for each currency.
by dumbmoney
Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Gov't expects to sell Floating Rate Treasury Notes
Replies: 5
Views: 980

Re: U.S. Gov't expects to sell Floating Rate Treasury Notes

The simplest solution is to stick with Total Bond Market and invest in them to the extent they represent the market, but they would be an interesting instrument: being treasurys, they would have very limited default risk, and being floating rate notes, they would have very limited interest rate ris...
by dumbmoney
Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund
Replies: 187
Views: 36895

Re: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond F

I thought it was a little interesting that they switched to an index that caps the largest issuer at 20%. The new index has a weight of 23% in Japan (presumably hitting the 20% cap, plus 3% corporate bonds).
by dumbmoney
Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Trading Costs Included in Expense Ratio?
Replies: 28
Views: 3224

Re: Are Trading Costs Included in Expense Ratio?

Nisi's answer is correct if you narrowly define trading cost to be brokerage commissions, and all costs incurred by fund inflows/outflows. It does NOT include the market impact cost of index changes, since those costs are included in the "cost free" benchmark (a consequence of index changes being an...
by dumbmoney
Fri Dec 07, 2012 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't look now -- but Europe is up 24%!
Replies: 28
Views: 4210

Re: Don't look now -- but Europe is up 24%!

It sounds you are one of the people that defines market timing as anything other than having a constant mix. But that is not market timing. Market timing means predicting the future direction of stock prices, which often involves some kind of technical analysis. You buy when some indicator gives a ...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is short selling considered riskier than long investing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1993

Re: Is short selling considered riskier than long investing?

You can stick a bunch of stock certificates chosen at random in a coffee can, pay no attention to the market, and in a few decades they'll almost certainly be worth more.

I don't know if that makes it less risky than shorting, but it's certainly an easier way to make money.
by dumbmoney
Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:20 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Where is Opponent Process?
Replies: 25
Views: 2691

Re: Where is Opponent Process?

I miss him too.
by dumbmoney
Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The anti-Taleb reviews Antifragile
Replies: 197
Views: 31233

Re: Taleb is the best!!!

grok87 wrote: So corporate bonds, No.
Selling covered calls, No.
Equities (and in particular small/value), Yes.
Buying LEAPS, Yes.
A single small cap stock, yes. Not a diversified portfolio of stocks.
by dumbmoney
Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Devil's advocate [Stocks for the long haul]
Replies: 29
Views: 3497

Re: Devil's advocate [Stocks for the long haul]

The riskiness of stocks (and very long term bonds) comes mainly from the fact that you eventually have to sell them. They would be risky even if you didn't have to worry about companies going bankrupt or cutting their dividends, because the market is very fickle about what a stream of dividends is w...
by dumbmoney
Wed Nov 21, 2012 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTIPX vs VIPSX. What if the govt stops issuing TIPS?
Replies: 36
Views: 4126

Re: VTIPX vs VIPSX. What if the govt stops issuing TIPS?

FinancialDave wrote: IF the government decides they want to pay off "all" their debt how could they even do that without waiting out the 30 year bond crowd and the other Bond investors that hold non-callable bonds?
Buy them?
by dumbmoney
Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Planet Money: Why Coke cost a nickel for 70 years
Replies: 60
Views: 8145

Re: Planet Money: Why Coke cost a nickel for 70 years

I enjoyed that podcast too. I liked the end of the podcast where he said the nickel coke is still with us (see below) From the podcast: "Phil Mooney the Coca Cola Archivist pointed out this one strange thing--In many respects the nickel coke is sorta still around if you do it on a per ounce basis. ...
by dumbmoney
Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why index funds should (sometimes) lend stocks
Replies: 0
Views: 272

Why index funds should (sometimes) lend stocks

I think stock lending is often a scam - a way for funds to charge extra fees that they don't have to disclose, and/or to juice returns in an opaque way. But there's one case where an index fund should lend, and that's when the lending rate is abnormally high. For example: http://brontecapital.blogsp...
by dumbmoney
Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Walmart Amex BlueBird Card
Replies: 9
Views: 2304

Re: Walmart Amex BlueBird Card

no fees except $2/cash withdrawal at an ATM and a one time $5 set up fee. No ATM fee if you use a machine in the Money Pass network. from the web site "Bluebird members never pay surcharge fees at MoneyPass ATMs, including Money Center Express machines at Walmart (but a $2 Amex network fee will app...
by dumbmoney
Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small Cap Value not risky enough for you? Try this:
Replies: 30
Views: 3937

Re: 100% Small Cap Value not risky enough for you? Try this:

Shorting and margin borrowing have mark to market risk. You are at the mercy of stock market quotations - and your broker. Are you comfortable with losing everything if there's a temporary crash or market malfunction and your broker liquidates you?
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incentives and the EMH -- Nate Silver
Replies: 9
Views: 942

Re: Incentives and the EMH -- Nate Silver

If there were an index that tracked individual investors stock selections, and one that tracked institutional investors, which would you prefer?
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on the origins of Growth Index and Value Index
Replies: 43
Views: 5283

Re: Bogle on the origins of Growth Index and Value Index

Well, at least we know what did happen . Exactly what we expected to happen. From 1992-9/2012: Russell 1000 Growth = +7.1% Russell 2000 Value = +9.2% Russell 2000 Growth = +6.2% Russell 2000 Value = +10.9% So large value beat large growth by 2.1% and small value beat small growth by 4.7%. This is n...
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on the origins of Growth Index and Value Index
Replies: 43
Views: 5283

Re: Bogle on the origins of Growth Index and Value Index

Well, at least we know what did happen . Exactly what we expected to happen. From 1992-9/2012: Russell 1000 Growth = +7.1% Russell 2000 Value = +9.2% Russell 2000 Growth = +6.2% Russell 2000 Value = +10.9% So large value beat large growth by 2.1% and small value beat small growth by 4.7%. This is n...
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares Lowers Expense Ratios -- unless you own EEM or EFA
Replies: 19
Views: 2838

Re: iShares Lowers Expense Ratios -- unless you own EEM or E

However, I don't recommend it because I doubt that the 0.18% cost will last, and there will be a tax bill for switching. I think it will last, but Vanguard will eventually be lower. Actually they may already be lower if you account for hidden fees (e.g. stock lending fees). This article has a good ...
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Comcast "Blast" Internet Service: Worth It?
Replies: 20
Views: 52125

Re: Comcast "Blast" Internet Service: Worth It?

For the typical light user, the standard tier (2MB/s down, 0.25MB/s up) is overkill. IMO, that depends on whether you want to stream HD video or not. Each HD video stream, say from netflix or a news website, wants somewhere around 3 Mbps for top notch quality. They'll still work with less, but you'...
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Comcast "Blast" Internet Service: Worth It?
Replies: 20
Views: 52125

Re: Comcast "Blast" Internet Service: Worth It?

It's the same thing, just with 50% higher speed caps. So large file transfers will complete faster if/when your end is the bottleneck. Or you could stream more videos simultaneously. They offer even higher caps (requiring a DOCSIS 3 modem) for more money. For the typical light user, the standard tie...
by dumbmoney
Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average US investor - % stocks
Replies: 14
Views: 1658

Re: Average US investor - % stocks

http://seekingalpha.com/article/844941-aaii-august-2012-asset-allocation-survey-cash-allocations-fall-to-a-15-month-low August AAII Asset Allocation Survey results: Stocks/Stock Funds: 60.5%, up 0.7 percentage points Bonds/Bond Funds: 21.4%, up 2.0 percentage points Cash: 18.1%, down 2.7 percentage ...
by dumbmoney
Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone try this to beat the 500 Index fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 3305

Re: Anyone try this to beat the 500 Index fund?

As I point out every time this idea is suggested: The usual value/growth indexes are rebalanced to maintain 50% of the market in each. So if you hold them 50/50, and rebalance in sync with the index rebalancing, you will replicate a total market fund. Edit: Never mind, I misread the post. What was s...
by dumbmoney
Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cutting cable- want dvr
Replies: 63
Views: 13268

Re: cutting cable- want dvr

In the US, cable companies need to apply for a special FCC waver to encrypt basic cable channels, including digital and HD channels. Recently some cable companies have applied for wavers and have been lobbying the FCC to change the rules, but the rules are still there and I don't think any wavers h...
by dumbmoney
Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what are you thinking about international investing?
Replies: 26
Views: 5776

Re: what are you thinking about international investing?

Yobria, I know the total international has higher fees than TSM. This is hair splitting, but it's not clear that U.S. investors pay higher fees than foreign investors in their home markets. TISM vs TSM is an irrelevant comparison since they don't hold the same stocks. You want to compare TISM with ...
by dumbmoney
Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what are you thinking about international investing?
Replies: 26
Views: 5776

Re: what are you thinking about international investing?

Yobria, I know the total international has higher fees than TSM. This is hair splitting, but it's not clear that U.S. investors pay higher fees than foreign investors in their home markets. TISM vs TSM is an irrelevant comparison since they don't hold the same stocks. You want to compare TISM with ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Aug 17, 2012 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deleted (unless you want to discuss Apple)
Replies: 12
Views: 4472

Re: Deleted (unless you want to discuss Apple)

Vanguard large value/growth index funds since inception 19.75 years ago:

Growth index: 8.08%
Value index: 8.32%

Not a very exciting disparity, but value did beat growth.

S&P 500 index fund returned (if I did the math correctly) 8.19% - in between as expected.
by dumbmoney
Thu Aug 09, 2012 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Index Funds are on a Roll--Will it Persist?"
Replies: 28
Views: 4008

Re: "Index Funds are on a Roll--Will it Persist?"

Is active management an asset class? I don't think so for the simple fact that all active bets sum up to the market. Any argument that managers as a whole can over-perform hinge on improper benchmarks. Active funds aren't the entire market. There are also individual investors, index funds, governme...
by dumbmoney
Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#
Replies: 10
Views: 1786

Re: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#

I don't buy any of this. PE10 includes earnings and prices from 10 years ago. Tell that to the landline companies recently or the buggy whip companies before the were no buggies or any company where the world changes. It is academic, which is needed for manuscripts and quotes, but doesn't help now....
by dumbmoney
Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple (AAPL) and Large Cap Indexes- Problematic??
Replies: 26
Views: 3079

Re: Apple (AAPL) and Large Cap Indexes- Problematic??

Is there a way to find out from Morningstar or somebody the % of Apple in the average U.S. stock fund?
by dumbmoney
Tue Jul 31, 2012 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?
Replies: 20
Views: 2301

Re: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?

ETFs are turning stock speculators into index speculators.
by dumbmoney
Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Fiber
Replies: 42
Views: 5180

Re: Google Fiber

It's worth pointing out that this isn't new technology. Verizon rolled out FIOS in 2005 and basically Americans haven't shown that much interest. There's a less than 50% uptake in areas where Verizon FIOS is available (5 million customers out of a possible 13.7 million). Demand was so low that Veri...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jul 21, 2012 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing VS Gambling
Replies: 23
Views: 1938

Re: Investing VS Gambling

"Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little."
- Where are the Customers' Yachts? by Fred Schwed
by dumbmoney
Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is free TV (with rabbit ears) a lot better these days?
Replies: 38
Views: 5988

Re: Is free TV (with rabbit ears) a lot better these days?

I live pretty close to a major city, and before buying an antenna I simply tried picking up the available channels using the cable cord as an antenna. The copper acts like an antenna and I found no need to buy rabbit ears. So, see what channels you get before buying a separate item. Hmm. Are you su...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jul 10, 2012 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: End of 30 year bull bond market? Where to put safe money?
Replies: 39
Views: 5873

Re: End of 30 year bull bond market? Where to put safe money

Why would you think the market is grossly misjudging the reward-risk proposition for stocks and bonds? Setting aside whether today's prices are sensible - it's pretty clear that there's no consistency over time to the market's judgements. The reward-risk proposition can and does change for no good ...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Vanguard Bank?
Replies: 69
Views: 9794

Re: Why not Vanguard Bank?

On the other hand I agree that if MMFs are no longer allowed to have a fixed $1 value, then VG would need to offer some sort of bank deposit cash account for convenience of accounting for customers. Right, what some people seem to be missing is that Vanguard already offers banking services. And if ...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Vanguard Bank?
Replies: 69
Views: 9794

Re: Why not Vanguard Bank?

Why not indeed? The Fed is paying banks 0.25% on cash, which is more than you can get from treasuries. Zero risk, zero capital required. Just whatever it costs to set up.
by dumbmoney
Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a zero-return asset actually improve a portfolio?
Replies: 155
Views: 14144

Re: Can a zero-return asset actually improve a portfolio?

There seems to be a subtle linguistic confusion between can improve (in the MPT paradigm) a portfolio and can improve after the fact (even if only by chance) . Nisi is answering the first question, and then other people are answering the second. Note that in MPT, there is only one time period, hence...