Search found 2275 matches

by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheap 9-10 inch tablets / Black Friday deals
Replies: 49
Views: 5157

Re: Cheap 9-10 inch tablets / Black Friday deals

I have the second generation (the one sold last Christmas) and the only sites it doesn't work with are Flash sites - which I think is true for all tablets (if I am wrong, someone please let me know what tablets do support Flash because I would love to buy one). Adobe has ceased development of Flash...
by dumbmoney
Thu Nov 21, 2013 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tablets and Readers and Smartphones, oh my lol
Replies: 31
Views: 2536

Re: Tablets and Readers and Smartphones, oh my lol

Keeping in mind that my price point is $50-60, I'm thinking that if I got a tablet, the first thing I'd do is disassemble it. Not the hardware, but the operating system. I think that's called rooting? And I think it can only be done on Android models. I like to tinker with Windows and customize it ...
by dumbmoney
Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: T-mobile. 2 Lines $80. iPhone $549. Nokia Lumia $126.
Replies: 18
Views: 2886

Re: T-mobile. 2 Lines $80. iPhone $549. Nokia Lumia $126.

The ultra frugal way is to pay $0.10/minute, no monthly fee. (You do have to pay $100 per phone up front). No data plan. For light usage, this is cheaper than any monthly fee plan.

Don't buy the phones from t-mobile, get them cheaper elsewhere.
by dumbmoney
Thu Nov 21, 2013 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 stability and usability ...
Replies: 40
Views: 3676

Re: Windows 7 stability and usability ...

I use Win8, because I needed a 64-bit OS (>4GB of RAM) and Microsoft offered a cheap upgrade. But I actually think XP is the most polished OS Microsoft has ever made, and it's been downhill from there. Vista created havoc because it took so long to come out, and wasn't well supported initially. Win7...
by dumbmoney
Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How does Football,Baseball work???
Replies: 120
Views: 7611

Re: How does Football,Baseball work???

When I saw the subject line, I thought of George Carlin.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/humor7.shtml
by dumbmoney
Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bitcoins as investment
Replies: 210
Views: 19840

Re: Bitcoins as investment

I'm often asked to explain bitcoins so I've been trying to come up with the best metaphor. To me the keys are that it's not legal tender (so it's not currency), has a finite supply (so it's not beanie babies), and no material value (not gold or precious metals). So far I've come up with collectible...
by dumbmoney
Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar list-article on funds with good investor returns
Replies: 23
Views: 2591

Re: Morningstar list-article on funds with good investor ret

VTSMX and FSTMX were started at different times - that alone could account for the difference. If VTSMX didn't exist, people would be investing in VFINX (S&P 500) or something like it. So the fund flows into VTSMX don't tell you much about investor timing, they just reflect when VTSMX was opened. Pl...
by dumbmoney
Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging -- good or evil?
Replies: 48
Views: 3249

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging -- good or evil?

What makes my head spin is that the same investing experts claim that (1) long term investing is less risky than short term investing (at least when it comes to stocks), and (2) you can reduce risk by dollar cost averaging - which is a deliberate shortening of the investment period. A direct contrad...
by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 04, 2013 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total cap since 1926? "Investor returns" for whole market?
Replies: 7
Views: 1401

Re: Total cap since 1926? "Investor returns" for whole marke

A couple papers: What are Stock Investors' Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=544142 Dollar-Weighted Returns to Stock Investors: A New Look at the Evidence http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1299004 Not ...
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sci-Fi Short Story Recs
Replies: 60
Views: 5177

Re: Sci-Fi Short Story Recs

I recently TRIED to read Stranger in a Strange Land, after having heard of all the hubbub about it for the last 30 years for me (I'm pushing 40). It's been a while, but as I recall, the first half or so was good, or at least not bad, and the second half was a hack job, as if it were finished by a g...
by dumbmoney
Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Refurbished Ipad or ???
Replies: 17
Views: 1837

Re: Refurbished Ipad or ???

The Nook HD+ (9", 1920x1280) at $150 is quite a bargain.
by dumbmoney
Sat Sep 07, 2013 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?
Replies: 75
Views: 7622

Re: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?

US companies therefore do more buybacks, so the difference on dividend yield is somewhat compensated. Estimates by about 1%. Overall US cos *do* have lower payout ratios (Div per share/ Earnings per share): Including buybacks, the yield for U.S. stocks is currently around 5%. Buybacks are consisten...
by dumbmoney
Thu Aug 29, 2013 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why no Vanguard 2% cash back Visa card?
Replies: 36
Views: 21331

Re: Why no Vanguard 2% cash back Visa card?

nisiprius wrote:Some things Fidelity doesn't do include, oddly enough, ETFs.
Weirdly, they have exactly one ETF, about 10 years old. Recently they've registered a bunch of new ones - some me-too sector funds and some actively managed bond funds.
by dumbmoney
Fri Aug 16, 2013 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard needs a cash+ product
Replies: 18
Views: 1923

Re: Vanguard needs a cash+ product

I agree that Vanguard should offer an ultra short bond fund (actually they already have one, but it's for non-US investors). But with short term yields so low, it wouldn't offer much at the moment.
by dumbmoney
Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would a portfolio last forever if you only took the dividend
Replies: 31
Views: 3989

Re: would a portfolio last forever if you only took the divi

It's true that you lose diversification over time with a static portfolio, but it's a slow process. Note that shrinkage of the number of stocks is not the same as shrinkage of value. The loss of diversification may may be quicker than you think. Consider the S&P500 swapping out 5-10% of the constit...
by dumbmoney
Wed Aug 07, 2013 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would a portfolio last forever if you only took the dividend
Replies: 31
Views: 3989

Re: would a portfolio last forever if you only took the divi

Agree - you definitely need a mechanism to get new stocks into the portfolio. Over a very long period of time, many/most/all companies will go out of business. The sum value of holding them is the dividends paid out over the years that they were in business. if you want growth to offset this, you w...
by dumbmoney
Wed Aug 07, 2013 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "past performance does not predict future returns"
Replies: 20
Views: 2855

Re: "past performance does not predict future returns"

Personally I've always detested that SEC disclaimer, because what does it really say? Even the greenest investor knows that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. What he doesn't know is how much significance should be attached to past performance, what time frames are meaningful, etc. T...
by dumbmoney
Mon Aug 05, 2013 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not your father's indexing
Replies: 40
Views: 5280

Re: It's not your father's indexing

Another example of just how patient you may need to be... DFA was founded for the purpose of launching a small-cap fund, in the wake of Rolf Banz' discovery of the "size effect." I imagine the DFA US Micro Cap fund must be one of the oldest small-cap funds in existence. T. Rowe Price New Horizons (...
by dumbmoney
Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Herbalife Saga
Replies: 18
Views: 2089

Re: Herbalife Saga

Buffett on shorting... http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/for-buffett-the-long-run-still-trumps-the-quick-return/?_r=0 “Charlie and I both have talked about it, we probably had a hundred ideas of things that would be good short sales. Probably 95 percent of them at least turned out to be, and I ...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 not yet at inflation adjusted high
Replies: 12
Views: 3194

Re: SP500 not yet at inflation adjusted high

Here's another random comparison, but perhaps slightly more meaningful:

Image

Starting from the 3/24/2000 peak, it took just over 13 years for the Vanguard 500 fund (VFINX) to pass the Vanguard money market fund (VMMXX).
by dumbmoney
Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard research: How staying the course helped investors.
Replies: 4
Views: 785

Re: Vanguard research: How staying the course helped investo

It is possible to agree with and/or believe everything Vanguard says, while still recognizing that this is not disinterested advice on Vanguard's part. I personally think staying the course is "win-win" and benefits both the investor and the mutual fund company. But clearly it does benefit the mutu...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jul 20, 2013 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dimensional Matrix Book 2013
Replies: 4
Views: 896

Re: Dimensional Matrix Book 2013

So there doesn’t seem to be much of a ‘profitability premium” (exclusion of companies with the lowest profitability) in small caps (in US or Int). There was a small premium in US large caps, with largest in intl large, and none in EM (relative to MSCI EM) - at least over last 20 years. From page 66...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap-weighted funds
Replies: 18
Views: 1401

Re: Cap-weighted funds

Out of curiosity I checked how Bridgeway Blue Chip 35 Index (BRLIX) is doing, which is an equal weighted large cap fund ("Blue chip investing with a 'buy low, sell high' rebalancing approach", the web site says). Since inception in 1997 it has outperformed the S&P 500, but underperformed the stylist...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jul 16, 2013 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Total Bond Market Performance Compromised By The Zero Int
Replies: 43
Views: 3744

Re: Is Total Bond Market Performance Compromised By The Zero

I disagree with the premise that a lower bound on rates automatically makes bonds a bad deal. They are only a bad deal if expected to return less than cash.
by dumbmoney
Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index and Bond Index Funds - Operation in Real Time
Replies: 13
Views: 1366

Re: Bond Index and Bond Index Funds - Operation in Real Time

The index is a 1+ year bond index, so bonds are sold when they hit 1 year to maturity.
by dumbmoney
Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead book recommendations?
Replies: 35
Views: 5490

Re: Anti-Boglehead book recommendations?

"Worry-Free Investing" by Zvi Bodie

"Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets" and "Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers" by Andrew Smithers
by dumbmoney
Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell-Off Risk in Bond Funds
Replies: 56
Views: 6217

Re: Sell-Off Risk in Bond Funds

I don't know what is meant by sell off risk, but certainly fund flows can damage share holders, especially if the NAV is wildly unrealistic. A too-high NAV will cause a "run" on the fund by sophisticated investors. After the fund's liquid assets are exhausted and the fund starts selling the illiqui...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell-Off Risk in Bond Funds
Replies: 56
Views: 6217

Re: Sell-Off Risk in Bond Funds

I don't know what is meant by sell off risk, but certainly fund flows can damage share holders, especially if the NAV is wildly unrealistic. A too-high NAV will cause a "run" on the fund by sophisticated investors. After the fund's liquid assets are exhausted and the fund starts selling the illiquid...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Securities Lending - do I need to worry about such practice?
Replies: 7
Views: 914

Re: Securities Lending - do I need to worry about such pract

The key part is, "Funds participating in securities lending retain 60% of the revenue generated, while BlackRock receives 40%..." So basically it's a sneaky way for Blackrock to charge more fees. As a result they have an incentive to take more risk with lending than is in the best interest of the in...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jun 30, 2013 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liquidity as factor
Replies: 20
Views: 2388

Re: Liquidity as factor

There's something a little strange about trying to get a liquidity premium from an open-ended fund, which itself is perfectly liquid (buy/sell at NAV, no spread).
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do EM bonds react to U.S. Fed "tapering?"
Replies: 13
Views: 1254

Re: Why do EM bonds react to U.S. Fed "tapering?"

These are all dollar bonds, so they are only linked to foreign countries by default risk.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help explain how QE works
Replies: 24
Views: 2391

Re: Help explain how QE works

The Fed created money in a bank's reserve account to buy the bond. The $1000 bond is an asset. The $1000 in the reserve account is a liability. They balance. Ok. When the bond matures, nothing happens to the balance sheet. The Fed just surrenders the bond and gets real cash from the Treasury accoun...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you buy Total World index if it had Admiral Shares?
Replies: 68
Views: 12293

Re: Would you buy Total World index if it had Admiral Shares

I don't know why anyone would want Total World (though some people clearly do). Since stocks rarely move between the U.S. index and international index, you aren't reducing turnover.
by dumbmoney
Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help explain how QE works
Replies: 24
Views: 2391

Re: Help explain how QE works

Simple! Ha! There are dozens of different theories about how QE works (plus no shortage of theories that say it doesn't work). Here's one I happened to read today, which is fairly typical of the genre (the author is an academic economist): http://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/53335388874/qe-or-not...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Are Different?
Replies: 207
Views: 14345

Re: Dividends Are Different?

The absurdity of a strict dividend rule is illustrated by what happened when Berkshire bought Burlington partly with stock. Burlington was held by dividend funds, and they were forced to sell because Berkshire doesn't pay dividends. How dumb is that? Not only did they arbitrarily exclude Berkshire a...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Are Different?
Replies: 207
Views: 14345

Re: Dividends Are Different?

Dividends are the only thing that gives stocks a value at all. Then how is it that the biggest single annual return I ever got from a stock (when I had some) was when the company went private and the new holders bought everybody out? The point is that someone can actually remove stock from the mark...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Are Different?
Replies: 207
Views: 14345

Re: Dividends Are Different?

If we plot price per share rather than growth, it is clear that there is a dramatic difference in the composition of the two funds, and that indeed Vanguard Equity Income had far, far less capital appreciation than 500 Index. Obviously the dividends paid out by the dividend stocks slowed their capi...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jun 14, 2013 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco's Commodity Fund is not really a commodity fund
Replies: 24
Views: 4229

Re: Pimco's Commodity Fund is not really a commodity fund

Consider two S&P 500 index funds. Fund A buys index futures and invests its collateral in a money market fund. Fund B buys index futures and invests its collateral in long term treasuries. If an investor in fund A wanted to replicate the return of fund B, he would have to borrow money on margin and ...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"
Replies: 71
Views: 9320

Re: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"

Is there is some generally accepted definition of a bond bear market? I've read many times that a stock bear market = 20% decline, but I don't recall ever reading that a bond bear market = 2% (or whatever) decline. Maybe the reason why nobody talks about bond bear markets is that a 2% loss just isn'...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jun 04, 2013 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Total International Bond Fund is open
Replies: 88
Views: 16290

Re: VG Total International Bond Fund is open

leod wrote:does this include Greece bonds or from countries that have talks of defaulting?
It's an "investment grade" bond fund, so there is a minimum credit rating. I assume Greek bonds are still "junk" bonds, but maybe things have changed.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) up 1.6%, VEMAX down .06% today?
Replies: 19
Views: 2650

Re: VWO up 1.6%, VEMAX down .06% today?

It swung from a 1.05% discount on Friday to a 0.53% premium on Monday.
by dumbmoney
Fri May 31, 2013 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trading costs matter
Replies: 13
Views: 1325

Re: trading costs matter

There was an ETF, one of the "HOLDRs", that was like a total market stock fund (2,000 stocks or something like that) except that it never, ever traded. The stock holdings were fixed forever. Exactly zero turnover.

For whatever reason, it didn't catch on and was shut down.
by dumbmoney
Thu May 30, 2013 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return
Replies: 16
Views: 2737

Re: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return

You're looking at a return including dividends, which is fine. But investors as a whole don't reinvest their dividends. They spend them (and share buybacks too).
by dumbmoney
Tue May 28, 2013 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ishares ALT: hedge fund for the masses?
Replies: 6
Views: 2498

Re: ishares ALT: hedge fund for the masses?

ALT is shutting down: http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/features/18794-ishares-alt-june-4-liquidation-on-track.html ALT, a $43.3 million actively managed exchange-traded fund that has been on the market since October 2009, isn’t resonating with investors, according to iShares. The shuttering is ...
by dumbmoney
Tue May 14, 2013 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 51
Views: 8197

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

It's pure luck that Hussman opened his fund very close to the 2000 market top.
by dumbmoney
Sat May 11, 2013 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing
Replies: 8
Views: 1213

Re: Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing

lazyday wrote:I wouldn't assume that seeing a premium most of the time means it is likely to represent a true premium.
Not sure what you mean by true premium. The NAV may be wrong, but it's still the price at 4PM. Unless the ETF trades very differently at 4PM than at other times, it's valid information.
by dumbmoney
Sat May 11, 2013 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bidding on Ebay; Ignorance on best Bidding strategy
Replies: 88
Views: 7521

Re: Bidding on Ebay; Ignorance on best Bidding strategy

If everyone understood how ebay worked, then it wouldn't matter much. But there are always lots of newbies who place lowball bids, then raise them if it's not enough. I did it myself when I first used ebay. If you bid at the last second, then they can't amuse themselves at your expense.
by dumbmoney
Fri May 10, 2013 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing
Replies: 8
Views: 1213

Re: Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing

It's normal for an ETF experiencing inflows to trade at a premium. The premium pays the arbitragers to acquire shares and deliver them to the fund. Although it's not easy to tell whether there's a premium _right_now_ for the reasons lazyday cited, one can play the odds. If an ETF has in the recent p...
by dumbmoney
Mon May 06, 2013 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 5235

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

Much of the risk with stocks is that you will eventually have to sell, and the relationship between price and 'fundamental value' fluctuates over a wide range. But I don't want to make too much of this, because there's a simpler and more important point. Investing 100% of a $1 portfolio in stocks is...
by dumbmoney
Sun May 05, 2013 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ultra short duration funds
Replies: 7
Views: 997

Re: ultra short duration funds

One of the reasons some 'ultra short' funds blew up is that they weren't really ultra short, in terms of bond maturity. They held long term (as long as 50 years) floating rate bonds, which the SEC allows funds to report as ultra short term bonds.