Search found 359 matches

by raven15
Sun Jun 05, 2016 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)
Replies: 83
Views: 15060

Re: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)

Nice! Even if it was $12 that I had already paid to a foreign government, I expect my returns would still have been 0.12% higher than every other investor in the world!
by raven15
Sat Jun 04, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Signs You Own the Right Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 3754

Re: Signs You Own the Right Portfolio

(1) and (11) are contradictory.

After years of reading Bernstein I decided that perhaps I should include 8% (1/12) of my portfolio as gold miner equity, last October. Wow, I didn't expect that! Need to keep a lid on that sucker...
by raven15
Sat Jun 04, 2016 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)
Replies: 83
Views: 15060

Re: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)

Is the government actually paying me to invest abroad? No, they are reimbursing you for the taxes that you paid to foreign governments. And not all foreign countries taxes will be reimbursed. I wish it was called a foreign tax reimbursement, and not a foreign tax credit :-). I think the word "credi...
by raven15
Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)
Replies: 83
Views: 15060

Re: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)

Can the foreign tax credit result in a negative total expense? For example, for 2015 I was apparently in the 10% tax bracket (quite an accomplishment with gross income of over $80,000...) and my state does not have income tax. When I type 10% into the spreadsheet it shows VEA had a total cost of -0....
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.
Replies: 148
Views: 17289

Re: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.

Most investors seem to be interested in maximizing their gains, making the most optimal investing decisions. But some of us have a little different orientation and instead are focused on avoiding catastrophic mistakes more than on getting the best possible return. The enemy is not a suboptimal retu...
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments
Replies: 19
Views: 2333

Re: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments

Thanks for those ideas, Raven15. I looked at some of the research on 30/70 portfolios (was it a study from Merriman?). I did some more thinking and talking with a friend who's a financial advisor and think I'll do this: 60k checking and high-yield savings (I sort of need this much liquid for the S-...
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.
Replies: 148
Views: 17289

Re: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.

However I will pose you this question: If something extremely terrible happens to the US, how exactly do you plan on cashing out your international equities and living a decent life when the US stock market has collapsed without recovery? I think you may have bigger problems than retirement at that...
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments
Replies: 19
Views: 2333

Re: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments

60k checking and high-yield savings (I sort of need this much liquid for the S-corp cash flow) 100k i bonds (I'd buy another 20k) 100k 5 year cds (at Ally?) 100k bond fund (maybe 50/50 of VCADX and VWIUX?) :arrow: 80k VG conservative growth lifestrategy fund :arrow: Any ideas on specific funds and ...
by raven15
Mon May 30, 2016 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments
Replies: 19
Views: 2333

Re: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments

I'd love to hear more about this. I have almost the exact same problem, which I have conceptualized in almost the exact same way, and looked at similar solutions. The not knowing a date makes it especially hard. This is sort of a blank spot in the investing world. My current thought is a Vanguard ba...
by raven15
Mon May 30, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in Taxable if Taxable Needs the Safety?
Replies: 17
Views: 2424

Re: Bonds in Taxable if Taxable Needs the Safety?

First, I have seen several posts on for example the white coat investor and the finance buff demonstrating that bonds are more tax-efficient than are stocks. The stocks-in-taxable advice has been obsolete for about a decade. Second, I agree with you. Tax sheltered accounts are pretty obviously a dif...
by raven15
Sun May 22, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying land in West
Replies: 30
Views: 3477

Re: Buying land in West

One thing that is different out west is that mineral and water rights may not accompany your rights to the surface of the property. Yes, someone could theoretically mine or drill for oil on your property. Or you might buy some property that has no water and no rights to water flowing nearby. Comple...
by raven15
Sat May 21, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching to ARM
Replies: 6
Views: 1020

Re: Switching to ARM

For some reason the best refinance calculator I found was on Schwab's website: http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/banking_lending/home_loans/mortgage_calculators/mortgage_refinance_calculator I went with a 15/15 ARM last year, which has been great combination of low rate, low payment, and long peri...
by raven15
Sat May 21, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 251
Views: 38620

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

Blue collar (and I guess redneck), that's me. I spent some years working in underground mines in the western USA, then some years in oil & gas in Alaska. Worked hard, raised a family, tried to save some money along the way. Only out of work for one week in 39 years and counting. Never made a bunch ...
by raven15
Tue May 10, 2016 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?
Replies: 11
Views: 3242

Re: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?

One thing I'd like to point out is that discount rate is not necessarily the same as interest rate. It is also/instead a measure of how important or risky the future is relative to the present. As an example, in 2012 I did some consulting work for an actual gold mine. They selected projects in a way...
by raven15
Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD 5-Year Report Card
Replies: 50
Views: 9404

Re: CD 5-Year Report Card

Thanks Kevin. I previously searched the website, but the first three pages of search results didn't turn up anything nearly as useful as your reply.
by raven15
Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD 5-Year Report Card
Replies: 50
Views: 9404

Re: CD 5-Year Report Card

Kevin, is there any particular reason to use direct CD's instead of brokered CD's?
by raven15
Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SCZ vs SCHC in schwab acct (calculator?)
Replies: 5
Views: 825

Re: SCZ vs SCHC in schwab acct (calculator?)

Based on expenses, I'd choose FNDC over SCZ.
by raven15
Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you decide your asset allocation?
Replies: 175
Views: 20241

Re: How do you decide your asset allocation?

Actually as I showed above, if you have a risk free asset and a riskless asset with the same expected return, the optimal portfolio is 100% risk free asset. The only time diversification makes sense is when you have either uncorrelated positive risks or a difference in returns. Starting from 100% T...
by raven15
Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money illusion: Why bonds? See S&P 500 & 10y T-bond returns, 1871-2015
Replies: 58
Views: 9321

Re: Money illusion: Why bonds? See S&P 500 & 10y T-bond returns, 1871-2015

That was a nice analysis, it showed that data in a new light. It has been my observation that the chief benefit of typical bonds for a buy and holder is "mental pacifier", unless being held for use within 5 years. Is there any benefit to holding a small slice of nominal bonds, say, for diversificati...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would you invest in a bond fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 3165

Re: Why would you invest in a bond fund?

If TwoByFour is spending his dividends, then wouldn't it make more sense to say that dividends are all he cares about? (That's what dividend stock enthusiasts usually say if you bring total return charts into the picture...) I think that if you have chosen, for whatever reason, to spend all the div...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would you invest in a bond fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 3165

Re: Why would you invest in a bond fund?

No, the total return graph is the right one to use. It's not about reinvesting dividends, it's about not spending increased dividends. If TBM gives you increased dividends and you spend them all, then TBM deserves some credit and you deserve some blame for increasing your spending. Wait, I'm confus...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"
Replies: 112
Views: 13749

Re: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"

Really. That is not at all like making diamonds, but still news to me. Yes, but of course it is not cheap or cost effective. I looked it up just now and see also that you can make gold in a particle accelerator. I bet that isn't cheap either. Between the two of them and moon mining I bet they can k...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"
Replies: 112
Views: 13749

Re: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"

As in how diamonds can be manufactured, so also it is possible (but costly) to manufacture gold - which potentially puts a upper limit on the commodity value. As might a large gold ore find (similar to how fracking gas has impacted gas prices). As it happens, the premier manufacturer of gold in the...
by raven15
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"
Replies: 112
Views: 13749

Re: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"

As in how diamonds can be manufactured, so also it is possible (but costly) to manufacture gold - which potentially puts a upper limit on the commodity value. As might a large gold ore find (similar to how fracking gas has impacted gas prices). As it happens, the premier manufacturer of gold in the...
by raven15
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 105
Views: 12815

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

Note: I am firmly in the camp (ala Graham) that believes in having at least 25% bonds. That said, if you're deciding between 90/10 and 100/0, I suggest doing 90/10 and considering making your bonds something like Extended Duration Treasuries (Vanguard has an ETF for this). In stock downturns, extre...
by raven15
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 105
Views: 12815

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

I have been playing around with this a lot, and so long as you have an emergency fund and a reliable job it looks like 100% stocks is ideal until your annual contributions are less than 10% of the size of your portfolio. At roughly that point volatility begins to pose a risk rather than an opportuni...
by raven15
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 105
Views: 12815

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

You could try 10% long term bonds, for example Vanguard's VLGSX /VGLT or EDV. Over the past 10 years these would have increased the total return of a 90% stock portfolio, rather than merely serving as a mental pacifier. Long term bonds, especially the ones in EDV that do not pay interest, are as vol...
by raven15
Thu Dec 11, 2014 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments
Replies: 9
Views: 1563

Re: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments

Lots of people like PM equities because of the dividends. Personally I would say gold is preferable. Most commodities, miner stocks, and precious metals other than gold (silver, platinum, palladium, whose uses are industrial more than financial) tend to get sold off if there is a stock market panic,...
by raven15
Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 2469

Re: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?

What do you mean by "the market goes down 10%"? This is key. I'm not sure it matters too much. To my mind both 70/30 and 100/0 and everything between are fine allocations, so any method of switching over (or not switching over) will work roughly as well as any other. Move it all over at once. Buy i...
by raven15
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 2469

Re: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?

A good strategy might be to drop 10% of your bonds every time the market goes down 10%. You wouldn't be doing it to time the market, you'd be doing it because you realized a higher stock allocation is better for your circumstances, so you might as well make the switch when prices are favorable. Even...
by raven15
Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does turnover increase costs?
Replies: 12
Views: 1063

Re: How does turnover increase costs?

I just asked this last week, and the answers were few and vague. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=151932 For now I think the rule of thumb I suggested is pretty good. Oh, right. And turnover is likely to increase costs regardless, but paying a tax on it is especially undesirable.
by raven15
Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 13716

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

>>I tilt, and I think everyone should. The edge is small but it's there, and it's not really that hard or that expensive to do it.>> For those who checked this, please explain how it is possible for everyone to tilt. The only portfolio everyone can hold is the market portfolio. If one person tilts ...
by raven15
Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Outlook by Region
Replies: 5
Views: 860

Re: Global Outlook by Region

I have been thinking that how well a certain investment performs is not tied to the future performance of the underlying company or country on an absolute basis. Instead it depends on how well it does relative to everyone's current expectations. So it seems like diversification is beneficial, and pr...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does splitting int'l markets increase returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 2382

Re: Does splitting int'l markets increase returns?

Well, as the inspiration I will have to add a note of caution. First, the extra return is not guaranteed. However, higher expenses are. Also it will increase complexity and the chance of something going wrong, especially at the hands of the investor. I am doing that in one of my tax-sheltered accoun...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

I don't have that much faith in rebalancing between the two. Maybe a little bonus, but certainly not to that degree. Actually you may be more correct than I thought, and I may have to adjust my future strategy. It looks like investing in EM has resulted in some very poor results for those who do no...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

Actually I have to take back some of what I said. All of my earlier simulations involved dollar cost averaging in rapidly, ie. $10,000 starting allocation and $10,000 per year, because that is similar to what I am doing. This usually showed a big advantage to overweighting emerging markets. However ...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

My suggestion to try other, funky backtests was entirely rhetorical... I have no faith in gold and (measurably, in yield %) no faith in long bonds outperforming, going forward. But like these other backtests, yours is not something that "needs disproving", either. Overweight international and EM in...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

My thinking is that a good global stock allocation is 30% US, 30% other developed, 30% emerging markets, 10% home country. I am following my thinking (40% US, 30% Dvp'd. Int'l, 30% EM) because. Why are you splitting "other developed" and "emerging"? Why not X% US Index Fund, X% International Fund a...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

If you plug numbers in various form fields like gold and long bonds, you can come up with even better allocations going backward , but I think some of them will look so weird that you too will agree it's probably accident. You will notice that diversifying into a small equal allocation to gold and ...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

Right, but I am not trying to choose a specific allocation based strictly on backtesting. I am simply using round numbers to get maximum geographic diversification for the stock component. The evidence seems to show that this is very effective over every meaningful length of time, and it should cont...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&EmergingMarket1=20&mode=2&annualOperation=2&endYear=2013&initialAmount=10000&TotalBond3=40&TotalBond2=40&TotalBond1=40&EAFE1=20&portfolio3=Custom&portfolio2=Custom&portfolio1=Custom&TotalStockMarket2=30&TotalStockMarket3=60&Tota...
by raven15
Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 5818

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

My thinking is that a good global stock allocation is 30% US, 30% other developed, 30% emerging markets, 10% home country. I am following my thinking (40% US, 30% Dvp'd. Int'l, 30% EM) because I can't tell the difference between currency risk and currency opportunity; therefore, I'd prefer to keep m...
by raven15
Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical - Mutual Funds Don't Exist
Replies: 26
Views: 2571

Re: Hypothetical - Mutual Funds Don't Exist

To start, I would save $150,000 in municipal bonds, because otherwise commissions and the like would eat me alive. I'd keep $50,000 of that permanently, and use $100,000 to buy stocks. First I'd weed out stocks that didn't pay dividends, because I would view them as speculative. Of the remaining, I'...
by raven15
Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Choosing the right Asset Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 3634

Re: Choosing the right Asset Allocation

TwoByFour wrote: Choose the portfolio that statistically will have the best chance of succeeding.
Scott
You mean like the green line up near the top of my 3rd graph? :mrgreen:
by raven15
Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Choosing the right Asset Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 3634

Re: Choosing the right Asset Allocation

One more question for you and TwoByFour, Are you using lump sum or are you modeling what 99.44% of us do which is build by over a long time by investing (more or less) periodically? I believe TwoByFour said: $10k starting assets and a $6k yearly contribution (inflation adjusted) Mine are labeled at...
by raven15
Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 9131

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

Not trying to be offensive. :) Just trying to save you some money by saving you from yourself. If you did understand the above valuation concepts I mentioned you would not have made your first post in this thread. It illustrated a gap in knowledge. This forum is about teaching and learning and that...
by raven15
Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Choosing the right Asset Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 3634

Re: Choosing the right Asset Allocation

Yes. For the first two graphs the top two lines are median and the bottom two lines are 25th %.
by raven15
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can an Total US Index be improved?
Replies: 33
Views: 2502

Re: How can an Total US Index be improved?

I only became aware of these things in the past two weeks, so I am definitely not an expert. To my mind their greatest advantage is they should tend to underweight stocks that are experiencing speculative bubbles. Right now I think I am favorable, and think they are likely to more than make up for t...
by raven15
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can an Total US Index be improved?
Replies: 33
Views: 2502

Re: How can an Total US Index be improved?

It is not guaranteed to be an improvement (especially after additional fees) and might go against theory, but there are "fundamental indexes" that don't use market capitalization to size their holdings. I have been looking at Schwab's broad market fundamental index "FNDB." For example, most index fu...
by raven15
Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 9131

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

Even if this is true then one is still making a good argument for not being 100%TSM as it is 70% LC thus making a bet that it will be large cap that outperforms. Many of us do believe there are times that large cap to better and at other times small cap. That is why many of us balance LC an SC in o...