Search found 379 matches

by raven15
Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you invest of your net income?
Replies: 25
Views: 4121

Re: How much do you invest of your net income?

Currently in the 60-70% range, depending on how you count (70% includes mortgage principal and wife's tuition at community college). However my introduction to finance and investing was Mr. Money Mustache so I am strange.
by raven15
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 131
Views: 24003

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

Good for the people who bought in early this year! I myself added a small slice of gold miner fund in February (decided to add in October...should have been January...but my snail mail IRA application got lost ...grrr...). I think that gold miner equity at least will not return to recent lows for so...
by raven15
Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 227
Views: 38588

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

Based on historical data, the average S&P500 real return was 6.62% and for small value it was 10.50%. For every starting date, small value outperformed. Bogleheads: According to Vanguard, during the past 10 years the S&P 500 Index Fund (VFIAX) outperformed Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund (VISVX...
by raven15
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in gold
Replies: 60
Views: 4173

Re: Investing in gold

I admire the effects of 5%-20% gold on a rebalanced portfolio. It seems like this amount appears somewhere on the efficient frontier of many asset allocations for various periods over the past 40 years. It also seems to rise in price especially during periods of real or imagined fiscal incompetence....
by raven15
Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simplification vs. "Optimization"
Replies: 36
Views: 3949

Re: Simplification vs. "Optimization"

I have a hard time constructing a portfolio with fewer than five slices: US Stock, International Developed Stock, Emerging Market Stock, Long Term Treasury Bonds, and I-bonds. This is essentially my mental "baseline" portfolio, and these asset classes are sufficiently distinct that I can't see a ben...
by raven15
Mon Jul 04, 2016 12:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Accurately rebalance mutual fund portfolio [how to]
Replies: 24
Views: 2110

Re: Accurately rebalance mutual fund portfolio [how to]

Since January 2006 you should have outperformed a three fund portfolio (with the same 18% bond allocation) by 0.44% annualized after costs (6.46%-6.02%), assuming you rebalanced diligently according to 5/25 bands. You should have received an 0.37% (6.46%-6.09%) rebalancing bonus using 5/25 bands. Re...
by raven15
Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Diversification w/ Slice & Dice
Replies: 11
Views: 1824

Re: Bond Diversification w/ Slice & Dice

The two strategies I am aware of to slice and dice bonds are the barbell, which keeps long and short duration treasuries but not intermediate, and the junk/TIPS method. The first I investigated and it seemed beneficial. Apparently the high yield bonds and TIPS method comes from Rick Ferri but I have...
by raven15
Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 151
Views: 20721

Re: International stocks in free fall

I recently (last week) opened an account at Vanguard and just got the money available today. I started a couple funds including developed markets ex-US with the fund minimum investments, and have a little more than half left. Any opinions on the best period of dollar cost averaging to take advantage...
by raven15
Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wanting to start direct bond investing.
Replies: 22
Views: 2314

Re: Wanting to start direct bond investing.

If I was doing this, I'd make a ladder each of Guggenheim Bulletshares target maturity bond ETF's, and directly held treasuries, 50% each. I'd probably ladder the ETF's to the greatest duration possible and make the treasury ladder 10 years long. There is little point in laddering the Bulletshares....
by raven15
Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wanting to start direct bond investing.
Replies: 22
Views: 2314

Re: Wanting to start direct bond investing.

If I was doing this, I'd make a ladder each of Guggenheim Bulletshares target maturity bond ETF's, and directly held treasuries, 50% each. I'd probably ladder the ETF's to the greatest duration possible and make the treasury ladder 10 years long.
by raven15
Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Refinance Help
Replies: 10
Views: 1222

Re: Mortgage Refinance Help

I think the current 15 year mortgage is better for the long run. With those salaries it should be a cinch to pay off the student loans within two years, and be totally debt free in three years. (so obviously my introduction to personal finance was Mr. Money Mustache) Mathematically, paying back the ...
by raven15
Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help!. Best way to start saving for Home Downpayment?
Replies: 26
Views: 4366

Re: Need Help!. Best way to start saving for Home Downpayment?

==> Any suggestions for high yield CDs? The best I can get right now is 0.45% APY in a credit union. ==> Also, I understand (though not very well) that Bonds may be an "investment" and therefore may lose value, but is this true for all bonds? I was considering one or both of the following two funds...
by raven15
Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help!. Best way to start saving for Home Downpayment?
Replies: 26
Views: 4366

Re: Need Help!. Best way to start saving for Home Downpayment?

Most folks on here would say even 20% stocks is too risky for only 3-4 years out. If you are investing in a bond fund then including 20% stocks basically is noise as far actually losing money is concerned, but the stocks also greatly increase the chance of higher returns. If you have a bond fund yo...
by raven15
Sun Jun 12, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: A few questions before the final plunge [30 yo, foreign investor]
Replies: 15
Views: 2353

Re: A few questions before the final plunge [30 yo]

There is no need to overweight the US if you live in Lithuania. I would make VXUS 50% of the stock portion. I don't think it matters much where you live. IMO team loyalty does not count. Invest in the country that you believe in. Or diversify across several. In my case my choice of a bond fund is o...
by raven15
Sun Jun 12, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: A few questions before the final plunge [30 yo, foreign investor]
Replies: 15
Views: 2353

Re: A few questions before the final plunge [30 yo]

There is no need to overweight the US if you live in Lithuania. I would make VXUS 50% of the stock portion. BND vs BNDX. BND is obviously in US dollars, and BNDX is hedged to effectively be in dollars. Currency fluctuations can be a major source of volatility so Euros may be a better denomination fo...
by raven15
Sat Jun 11, 2016 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help!. Best way to start saving for Home Downpayment?
Replies: 26
Views: 4366

Re: Need Help!. Best way to start saving for Home Downpayment?

I think that 20/80 is a fine strategy. Vanguard's balanced fund page recommends their 20/80 fund for an investor with a 3-5 year time horizon, which seems to be you. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/lifestrategy/#/ I am looking into a similar investment strategy myself, though possibly wit...
by raven15
Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 20 year U.S. Treasuries, who's in?
Replies: 34
Views: 4272

Re: 20 year U.S. Treasuries, who's in?

I'm worse. My (tax-sheltered) retirement accounts have 8% in long-duration treasury STRIPS. I balance that with 8% in gold miner ETF (somehow I ended up using 1/3's, 1/6's, and 1/12's). The rest is global stock index funds. I'll probably gradually reduce the risk over the coming decades, but for now...
by raven15
Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Enhanced portfolio construction
Replies: 29
Views: 2814

Re: Enhanced portfolio construction

From the signature of Boglehead Toons: "One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee (I have to take a safety class every year for work, and every year the instructor makes us watch that exact clip...
by raven15
Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds? Bond Index Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1441

Re: Bond Funds? Bond Index Funds

My impression is that there is not enough volatility in bond funds to be worth dollar cost averaging into them.
by raven15
Sun Jun 05, 2016 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)
Replies: 83
Views: 16657

Re: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)

Oh. That is more along the lines of what I expected. Still, carrying it forward for future use isn't too bad.
by raven15
Sun Jun 05, 2016 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)
Replies: 83
Views: 16657

Re: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)

Nice! Even if it was $12 that I had already paid to a foreign government, I expect my returns would still have been 0.12% higher than every other investor in the world!
by raven15
Sat Jun 04, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Signs You Own the Right Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 3794

Re: Signs You Own the Right Portfolio

(1) and (11) are contradictory.

After years of reading Bernstein I decided that perhaps I should include 8% (1/12) of my portfolio as gold miner equity, last October. Wow, I didn't expect that! Need to keep a lid on that sucker...
by raven15
Sat Jun 04, 2016 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)
Replies: 83
Views: 16657

Re: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)

Is the government actually paying me to invest abroad? No, they are reimbursing you for the taxes that you paid to foreign governments. And not all foreign countries taxes will be reimbursed. I wish it was called a foreign tax reimbursement, and not a foreign tax credit :-). I think the word "credi...
by raven15
Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)
Replies: 83
Views: 16657

Re: Relative tax efficiency including Foreign Tax Credit (VSS, VWO, VBR, etc.)

Can the foreign tax credit result in a negative total expense? For example, for 2015 I was apparently in the 10% tax bracket (quite an accomplishment with gross income of over $80,000...) and my state does not have income tax. When I type 10% into the spreadsheet it shows VEA had a total cost of -0....
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.
Replies: 148
Views: 17748

Re: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.

Most investors seem to be interested in maximizing their gains, making the most optimal investing decisions. But some of us have a little different orientation and instead are focused on avoiding catastrophic mistakes more than on getting the best possible return. The enemy is not a suboptimal retu...
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments
Replies: 19
Views: 2374

Re: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments

Thanks for those ideas, Raven15. I looked at some of the research on 30/70 portfolios (was it a study from Merriman?). I did some more thinking and talking with a friend who's a financial advisor and think I'll do this: 60k checking and high-yield savings (I sort of need this much liquid for the S-...
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.
Replies: 148
Views: 17748

Re: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.

However I will pose you this question: If something extremely terrible happens to the US, how exactly do you plan on cashing out your international equities and living a decent life when the US stock market has collapsed without recovery? I think you may have bigger problems than retirement at that...
by raven15
Wed Jun 01, 2016 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments
Replies: 19
Views: 2374

Re: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments

60k checking and high-yield savings (I sort of need this much liquid for the S-corp cash flow) 100k i bonds (I'd buy another 20k) 100k 5 year cds (at Ally?) 100k bond fund (maybe 50/50 of VCADX and VWIUX?) :arrow: 80k VG conservative growth lifestrategy fund :arrow: Any ideas on specific funds and ...
by raven15
Mon May 30, 2016 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments
Replies: 19
Views: 2374

Re: Investing help for a writer: large emergency fund and medium-term investments

I'd love to hear more about this. I have almost the exact same problem, which I have conceptualized in almost the exact same way, and looked at similar solutions. The not knowing a date makes it especially hard. This is sort of a blank spot in the investing world. My current thought is a Vanguard ba...
by raven15
Mon May 30, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in Taxable if Taxable Needs the Safety?
Replies: 17
Views: 2465

Re: Bonds in Taxable if Taxable Needs the Safety?

First, I have seen several posts on for example the white coat investor and the finance buff demonstrating that bonds are more tax-efficient than are stocks. The stocks-in-taxable advice has been obsolete for about a decade. Second, I agree with you. Tax sheltered accounts are pretty obviously a dif...
by raven15
Sun May 22, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying land in West
Replies: 30
Views: 3576

Re: Buying land in West

One thing that is different out west is that mineral and water rights may not accompany your rights to the surface of the property. Yes, someone could theoretically mine or drill for oil on your property. Or you might buy some property that has no water and no rights to water flowing nearby. Comple...
by raven15
Sat May 21, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching to ARM
Replies: 6
Views: 1034

Re: Switching to ARM

For some reason the best refinance calculator I found was on Schwab's website: http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/banking_lending/home_loans/mortgage_calculators/mortgage_refinance_calculator I went with a 15/15 ARM last year, which has been great combination of low rate, low payment, and long peri...
by raven15
Sat May 21, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 251
Views: 39905

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

Blue collar (and I guess redneck), that's me. I spent some years working in underground mines in the western USA, then some years in oil & gas in Alaska. Worked hard, raised a family, tried to save some money along the way. Only out of work for one week in 39 years and counting. Never made a bunch ...
by raven15
Tue May 10, 2016 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?
Replies: 11
Views: 3301

Re: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?

One thing I'd like to point out is that discount rate is not necessarily the same as interest rate. It is also/instead a measure of how important or risky the future is relative to the present. As an example, in 2012 I did some consulting work for an actual gold mine. They selected projects in a way...
by raven15
Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD 5-Year Report Card
Replies: 50
Views: 9527

Re: CD 5-Year Report Card

Thanks Kevin. I previously searched the website, but the first three pages of search results didn't turn up anything nearly as useful as your reply.
by raven15
Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD 5-Year Report Card
Replies: 50
Views: 9527

Re: CD 5-Year Report Card

Kevin, is there any particular reason to use direct CD's instead of brokered CD's?
by raven15
Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SCZ vs SCHC in schwab acct (calculator?)
Replies: 5
Views: 875

Re: SCZ vs SCHC in schwab acct (calculator?)

Based on expenses, I'd choose FNDC over SCZ.
by raven15
Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you decide your asset allocation?
Replies: 175
Views: 20439

Re: How do you decide your asset allocation?

Actually as I showed above, if you have a risk free asset and a riskless asset with the same expected return, the optimal portfolio is 100% risk free asset. The only time diversification makes sense is when you have either uncorrelated positive risks or a difference in returns. Starting from 100% T...
by raven15
Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money illusion: Why bonds? See S&P 500 & 10y T-bond returns, 1871-2015
Replies: 58
Views: 9446

Re: Money illusion: Why bonds? See S&P 500 & 10y T-bond returns, 1871-2015

That was a nice analysis, it showed that data in a new light. It has been my observation that the chief benefit of typical bonds for a buy and holder is "mental pacifier", unless being held for use within 5 years. Is there any benefit to holding a small slice of nominal bonds, say, for diversificati...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would you invest in a bond fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 3197

Re: Why would you invest in a bond fund?

If TwoByFour is spending his dividends, then wouldn't it make more sense to say that dividends are all he cares about? (That's what dividend stock enthusiasts usually say if you bring total return charts into the picture...) I think that if you have chosen, for whatever reason, to spend all the div...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would you invest in a bond fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 3197

Re: Why would you invest in a bond fund?

No, the total return graph is the right one to use. It's not about reinvesting dividends, it's about not spending increased dividends. If TBM gives you increased dividends and you spend them all, then TBM deserves some credit and you deserve some blame for increasing your spending. Wait, I'm confus...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"
Replies: 112
Views: 13876

Re: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"

Really. That is not at all like making diamonds, but still news to me. Yes, but of course it is not cheap or cost effective. I looked it up just now and see also that you can make gold in a particle accelerator. I bet that isn't cheap either. Between the two of them and moon mining I bet they can k...
by raven15
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"
Replies: 112
Views: 13876

Re: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"

As in how diamonds can be manufactured, so also it is possible (but costly) to manufacture gold - which potentially puts a upper limit on the commodity value. As might a large gold ore find (similar to how fracking gas has impacted gas prices). As it happens, the premier manufacturer of gold in the...
by raven15
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"
Replies: 112
Views: 13876

Re: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"

As in how diamonds can be manufactured, so also it is possible (but costly) to manufacture gold - which potentially puts a upper limit on the commodity value. As might a large gold ore find (similar to how fracking gas has impacted gas prices). As it happens, the premier manufacturer of gold in the...
by raven15
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 105
Views: 12970

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

Note: I am firmly in the camp (ala Graham) that believes in having at least 25% bonds. That said, if you're deciding between 90/10 and 100/0, I suggest doing 90/10 and considering making your bonds something like Extended Duration Treasuries (Vanguard has an ETF for this). In stock downturns, extre...
by raven15
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 105
Views: 12970

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

I have been playing around with this a lot, and so long as you have an emergency fund and a reliable job it looks like 100% stocks is ideal until your annual contributions are less than 10% of the size of your portfolio. At roughly that point volatility begins to pose a risk rather than an opportuni...
by raven15
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 105
Views: 12970

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

You could try 10% long term bonds, for example Vanguard's VLGSX /VGLT or EDV. Over the past 10 years these would have increased the total return of a 90% stock portfolio, rather than merely serving as a mental pacifier. Long term bonds, especially the ones in EDV that do not pay interest, are as vol...
by raven15
Thu Dec 11, 2014 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments
Replies: 9
Views: 1573

Re: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments

Lots of people like PM equities because of the dividends. Personally I would say gold is preferable. Most commodities, miner stocks, and precious metals other than gold (silver, platinum, palladium, whose uses are industrial more than financial) tend to get sold off if there is a stock market panic,...
by raven15
Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 2483

Re: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?

What do you mean by "the market goes down 10%"? This is key. I'm not sure it matters too much. To my mind both 70/30 and 100/0 and everything between are fine allocations, so any method of switching over (or not switching over) will work roughly as well as any other. Move it all over at once. Buy i...
by raven15
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 2483

Re: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?

A good strategy might be to drop 10% of your bonds every time the market goes down 10%. You wouldn't be doing it to time the market, you'd be doing it because you realized a higher stock allocation is better for your circumstances, so you might as well make the switch when prices are favorable. Even...