Search found 380 matches

by raven15
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab 3-fund vs Target Date vs Intelligent Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 7443

Re: Schwab 3-fund vs Target Date vs Intelligent Portfolio

In taxable accounts I'd definitely go with Schwab or other company ETFs with free trades. I signed up for a mutual fund about nine months ago and was not happy to receive a bill for short term and long term capital gains taxes shortly after, since I hadn't even sold anything. Now I am waiting for a ...
by raven15
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formulas for International Stock Allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 1980

Re: Formulas for International Stock Allocation

None of them suggest that volatility is minimized at 0% international. It seems to me you have many complex formulas which do not produce foreseeably useful results. For me, the point of using a defined formula for decreasing the International stock allocation over time isn't to minimize volatility...
by raven15
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 3322

Re: Is it safer to invest in gold or bond funds?

Perhaps both? A ratio of 2:1 or 3:1 bonds:gold seems about right. Of course there is the issue that while theoretical ownership of gold might be nice, in practice there are extra costs and extra risks at every turn. If one is determined to invest in gold, I recommend using a mutual fund such as Fide...
by raven15
Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 4278

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

I was using 5%. Then I noticed my IRR over my (short) investing career has been over 10%, and I think this has not been an unusually good period for my allocation, so recently I did a couple at 10%. For retirement I will probably project whatever return gives a perpetually safe 3.3% withdrawal rate.
by raven15
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formulas for International Stock Allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 1980

Re: Formulas for International Stock Allocation

My understanding from Swensen is that currency risk reduces portfolio-level volatility in allocations up to about 25% of total portfolio, above which volatility starts to rise again. Vanguard wrote a paper showing 30%-40% of stock allocated to international has minimized volatility. Bogleheads poste...
by raven15
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 289
Views: 55613

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

Friends, it is pretty easy to fix this. Add "download." in front of the "finance." in your old formula and it will work again. The evaluate formula tool tells you this.
by raven15
Fri May 19, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 15377

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Hi all. When Taylor Larimore (much respect) was asked "why not market weights?" by someone trying to pick their US vs International allocation, Taylor replied with this list of concerns: Several reasons: * Higher costs * Approximately half the sales of our 500 largest companies are to foreigners * ...
by raven15
Wed May 10, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 23904

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

You are saving money to retire in your 60's? Ouch. I'm 33 and I spent the last 3 years saving to retire in my 40's. Ideally 40, but I doubt the markets like me that much.
by raven15
Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?
Replies: 50
Views: 4060

Re: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?

I thought reallocating would be as simple as "exchanging" some equity funds/buying bond funds later as I age ... I intend on running a 2 horse race of 100% equity/TOTAL US+TOTAL INT'L ADMIRAL for the next 5+ years and then "exchanging" inside my Roth later in life ... is this way off base? I am 32 ...
by raven15
Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen's Bond Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 2308

Re: David Swensen's Bond Portfolio

I read on this forum that in practice Swensen uses a total treasury index, believing that the bond market is very hard to get ahead in and then by only a small amount, which makes it not worth the effort. The more I think about this the more it makes sense. The only fund that seems to do this is the...
by raven15
Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 9090

Re: an in depth look at gold

There will be increased mining for battery metals. Is there a lot of gold as a by product? edit: In other words, a way to get exposure to gold price while also investing in a productive mining company. As far as I know gold is only a by product of mining chemically similar minerals such as silver a...
by raven15
Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International
Replies: 47
Views: 5666

Re: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International

Seeing how over the last decade small cap has been doing well, why have they not changed their allocation in their fund for better returns? That's not how it works, if it doesn't follow the "fundamental index" method it will be just another performance chasing fund :greedy. In general large value t...
by raven15
Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND Jumps 0.5% on Fed Announcement
Replies: 43
Views: 5633

Re: BND Jumps 0.5% on Fed Announcement

I timed the bond market perfectly by buying on Monday. Today I got $4.05 from my spectacular ability. Bond market timing: not the greatest mathematical invention of all time :!:
by raven15
Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International
Replies: 47
Views: 5666

Re: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International

Anyone else using solely international small-caps (e.g. VSS, VFSVX) for the international portion of their equities? When I joined this site recently, I was dead-set on 100% VTSAX US Total Stock Market, but I've since decided to add some international. I like how the small-caps are a little less co...
by raven15
Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vang. High Yield Tax Exempt Fund Admiral Shares
Replies: 16
Views: 1980

Re: Vang. High Yield Tax Exempt Fund Admiral Shares

That is normal behavior. Even if you had bought US treasury bonds they would have done the same thing. Eventually yields will stabilize or reverse and you will be making money again, but it will be even more money because of the new higher yield. Another point is that you should get in a mental habi...
by raven15
Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total International vs Developed Markets: a straightforward question
Replies: 21
Views: 3606

Re: Total International vs Developed Markets: a straightforward question

This thread... https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=174302 ... didn't address what I hope is a straightforward question. The commandment "Be Diversified" favors Total International (VGTSX) with 6,066 holdings. The commandment "Keep Expenses Low" favors Developed Market (VDVIX) with 0.02...
by raven15
Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out
Replies: 94
Views: 8981

Re: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out

Bill Bernstein at the last Phillie BH conference said he was too conservative when he was younger. Wow!!! I actually have something in common with Bill Bernstein. LMAO!! Amazing!! I wish I had his brains!!! Interesting. Fortunately I have been reading his books from the get-go, so being too conserv...
by raven15
Fri Mar 10, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 16025

Re: Does anyone own gold?

If the conclusion was an optimal asset allocation based on backtested safe withdrawal rates it would certainly have changed. Not necessarily by a meaningful amount. Possibly. Substituting "commodities" has almost the same result. The chief commodity went through its own somewhat artificial run up a...
by raven15
Fri Mar 10, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 16025

Re: Does anyone own gold?

No. Gold did not increase SWR between 1970 and 1975 because it was not legal to own gold at this time. There are lots of things we don't know or can't know about investing, but there is one thing we can know for sure: over this period, for the assets you backtested, this did not happen. It was defi...
by raven15
Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 16025

Re: Does anyone own gold?

No. Gold did not increase SWR between 1970 and 1975 because it was not legal to own gold at this time. There are lots of things we don't know or can't know about investing, but there is one thing we can know for sure: over this period, for the assets you backtested, this did not happen. Even if you...
by raven15
Thu Mar 09, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 16025

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I sympathize with you because the time-to-retire/safe-withdrawal-rate calculator is also my favorite, and likewise it took more than a year to get it through my thick head that I could not backtest gold with this calculator even though I already knew that in theory. I'm not aware of any studies, but...
by raven15
Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund all you need?
Replies: 94
Views: 22214

Re: Is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund all you need?

The Growth and to a slightly lesser extent Moderate Growth funds are perhaps the only stand-alone funds in existence I could recommend wholeheartedly and with no caveats ...for tax sheltered accounts :happy. Balanced index... it's not wrong, but you didn't hear it from me :? . VBIAX has a .08 expens...
by raven15
Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% Tax Margin and Munis in Taxable Account an Oxymoron?
Replies: 8
Views: 1289

Re: 15% Tax Margin and Munis in Taxable Account an Oxymoron?

I expect to be in the 15% bracket. The municipal fund that made the most sense to me was Vanguard's High Yield Municipal Fund (VWAHX/VWALX), as I will not be impacted by alternative minimum tax, which keeps the riff-raff out. I will be splitting this equally with treasuries, which backtests as nearl...
by raven15
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options For 8 Employee 401k Bogle Friendly
Replies: 4
Views: 716

Re: Options For 8 Employee 401k Bogle Friendly

Take a look at Schwab. They operate the Simple IRA for our small company, though that is all I know about it.
by raven15
Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Reports Third Round Of Expense Ratio Reductions Resulting In $143 Million In Cumulative Savings For Investors
Replies: 13
Views: 2638

Re: Vanguard Reports Third Round Of Expense Ratio Reductions Resulting In $143 Million In Cumulative Savings For Investo

Here was my take away from the announcement: Expense ratios represent the actual operating expenses for the prior fiscal year (including investment advisory fees, administrative costs, and shareholder-service expenses), meaning investors have already realized these savings by the time they are repor...
by raven15
Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 16025

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I personally am not so skeptical of gold data and think the charts with multiple start dates represent its overall benefit to stabilizing a portfolio quite well. We can disagree about what gold "should" have done in the early 70's but all we can really prove is what it did do and how it also affect...
by raven15
Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 16025

Re: Does anyone own gold?

Replying here so as not to pollute the other thread, this one is more similar and you posted in both. It doesn't change the outcome substantially, but starting in 1975 or 1978 does make substituting with bonds seem the better option in every case for the next 20 or so years. If you think about why ...
by raven15
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 2772

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Hmm, going on a tangent here, but it's not often I get to use my geophysics education on this forum :beer I'm not convinced that the earthquake analogy is a good one. Predicting earthquakes is actually pretty easy, and we know much more about the underlying mechanics (which will apply also in the f...
by raven15
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 16025

Re: Does anyone own gold?

Not only the GB but all of the optimal risk:reward allocations on Portfolio Charts have some allocation to gold, which of course drives many Bogleheads crazy. The Golden Butterfly is basically an optimistic (prosperity and inflation focused) tweak of Harry Browne's 4 x 25% Permanent Portfolio, tilt...
by raven15
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 2772

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/learn/images/2014hazmap-induced-lg.gif I saw this seismic hazard map posted on a recent thread and I thought it was a good and similar analogy. The entire map is based on where earthquakes have occurred in recorded history, it does not tell exactly where they wil...
by raven15
Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 43
Views: 7159

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

Not only the GB but all of the optimal risk:reward allocations on Portfolio Charts have some allocation to gold, which of course drives many Bogleheads crazy. The Golden Butterfly is basically an optimistic (prosperity and inflation focused) tweak of Harry Browne's 4 x 25% Permanent Portfolio, tilt...
by raven15
Sun Feb 19, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good strategy? [Roth IRA fund selection]
Replies: 21
Views: 1728

Re: Good strategy?

The point may be that you have no strategy. Consider these portfolios: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios Thanks. I am trying to develop a strategy that link isn't what I'm looking for. I think that link is exactly what you are looking for. Since you seem to think VTSAX is the only gam...
by raven15
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High valuations - still worth buying?
Replies: 9
Views: 1455

Re: High valuations - still worth buying?

... to me it seems the probability of a correction is high now, so it's worthwhile to be a bit patient and wait for a better deal. Do you think you will do worse than Bob, the World's Worst Market Timer? http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ If you are in Europe, Europe...
by raven15
Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Relative Tax Efficiency
Replies: 53
Views: 19762

Re: 2016 Relative Tax Efficiency

Updated: iShares foreign funds added: IXUS, SCZ, IEMG, EEMS, EFV ! MSCI EAFE Value looks beautiful. Thanks for updating Triceratop! I will be doing some changing in my taxable accounts to reduce future taxes. I have taxable accounts at both Vanguard and Fidelity, so the list of funds I have been co...
by raven15
Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 360
Views: 48216

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I personally would never rely on a retirement account for an EF. I would rather eat dog food... The average person generally has a lot less in their EFs than most bogles do on here. In the back of my mind the money doesn't even exist until I reach retirement (this includes future shortcomings). I a...
by raven15
Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 360
Views: 48216

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

...I understand what you mean, but the longer the period of time we're looking at, the more likely that the total annualized return is to regress to the mean. Dispersion from year to year doesn't change, but that's not what long-term, buy-and-hold investors are concerned with... Reversion to the me...
by raven15
Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.
Replies: 84
Views: 8705

Re: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.

What type of protection? It would be a good start to at least require that every company 401k plan includes a choice of a low cost US and international stock fund and a total bond fund (i.e. enabling the 3-fund index portfolio would be the minimum requirement), but not require it (i.e. don't mandat...
by raven15
Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold allocation via upma.org better than GDX? Any experience? tax-free?
Replies: 4
Views: 732

Re: Gold allocation via upma.org better than GDX? Any experience? tax-free?

GDX is a gold mining company stock fund, which makes it completely different.
by raven15
Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 31
Views: 5464

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

So, let's see what the effect would have been if we'd replaced some of the Total Stock Market Index Fund in a typical three-fund portfolio with PSXV. Start with a 60/40 basic allocation, with 1/4 of the stocks being international. I don't know quite what amount of PXSV people would recommend adding...
by raven15
Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 3742

Re: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation

This is a really interesting suggestion! Do you have any data on this? Long-term returns and correlations of long-term bonds vs. equities? I've always been very skeptical of bonds, but I'm open to long-term ones. I think you would really enjoy Larry Swedroe's The Only Guide to Bond Investing You'll...
by raven15
Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 3742

Re: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation

So chime in ? Let us see what we have to discuss to improve this 100% Equity Asset Allocation I understand where you're coming from with the negative correlation property though. Maybe consider adding 10% gold to the portfolio (in lieu of more dubious sectors)? This is *the* asset class which has t...
by raven15
Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 3742

Re: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation

Keeping 10% in intermediate to long term treasury bonds will likely not hurt. It might even help especially at preventing certain strange unlikely events to the downside. If you choose relatively long treasuries they will have volatility similar to stocks but have been historically uncorrelated, wh...
by raven15
Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 3742

Re: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation

Keeping 10% in intermediate to long term treasury bonds will likely not hurt. It might even help especially at preventing certain strange unlikely events to the downside. If you choose relatively long treasuries they will have volatility similar to stocks but have been historically uncorrelated, whi...
by raven15
Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard total market or extended market?
Replies: 5
Views: 1072

Re: Vanguard total market or extended market?

Total market should be the first choice.

Extended market is all the companies not in the S&P500 and is intended as a way for people to own the total market even if their employer retirement plan only offers an S&P500 fund.
by raven15
Sat Jan 21, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for House with Uncertain Timeline
Replies: 9
Views: 1197

Re: Investing for House with Uncertain Timeline

But how should they construct a glide path when the number of years between now and T-1yr is unknown? It seems that any glide path (or no glide at all) can be justified - which I think opens up the temptation to do some market timing in the future. My glide path will have us at around 40% stocks /6...
by raven15
Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for House with Uncertain Timeline
Replies: 9
Views: 1197

Re: Investing for House with Uncertain Timeline

I am in a nearly identical situation. I'm an engineer, my wife is back in school to get a degree in the medical field. She is not sure what yet, but at a minimum will be a physician assistant or nurse practitioner. Our time frame for the house is 5-12 years, most likely 7-8 years. I have realized I ...
by raven15
Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please help physician catch up.. late to the game
Replies: 13
Views: 3889

Re: Please help physician catch up.. late to the game

1. As per above, simplify every retirement account into a single IRA with very low expense ratios. You probably can't contribute to this any more, so perhaps use a very long target date fund and forget about it until you maybe decide to roll over the 401k later. I just read the above post about back...
by raven15
Sun Jan 15, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing only after a market correction
Replies: 99
Views: 8918

Re: Investing only after a market correction

Seems fine to me. Paying off debt is a winning move. Investing is a winning move. Any combination thereof is a winning move. If your interest rates are high relative to expected investment returns then debt comes first. If your interest rates are at or below the expected inflation rate then investi...
by raven15
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing only after a market correction
Replies: 99
Views: 8918

Re: Investing only after a market correction

Seems fine to me. Paying off debt is a winning move. Investing is a winning move. Any combination thereof is a winning move. If your interest rates are high relative to expected investment returns then debt comes first. If your interest rates are at or below the expected inflation rate then investin...
by raven15
Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal allocation based on holding period
Replies: 5
Views: 826

Re: Optimal allocation based on holding period

If you are not make ongoing contributions be 100% cash/CD 5 years out. If you are continuing to make contributions be 100% cash/CD 2 years out. For the ten years before that start at (up to, depending on risk tolerance) 100% stock and glide towards bonds by 10% per year. That's my rule of thumb. I h...