Search found 419 matches

by Atgard
Thu May 01, 2014 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: May 2014 ibond Rate
Replies: 32
Views: 2551

Re: May 2014 ibond Rate

Whew, glad I bought in April.

Yes, this little debate over possibly plus or minus $10 a year kept me up at night. :mrgreen:
by Atgard
Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Historical Returns Irrelevant?
Replies: 44
Views: 3774

Re: Are Historical Returns Irrelevant?

I would certainly not say they are irrelevant. The whole idea that stocks are expected to have higher risks and returns than bonds and we should allocate our portfolios accordingly is based on past performance, after all. No one knows what the future will bring, but I think past performance is the b...
by Atgard
Tue Apr 29, 2014 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

When you clearly say that even equities are preferable to Treasuries from a safety angle, we have a problem. If you are sure not to touch them for 30+ years -- please don't leave that part of my statement out. In the real world, most people are not sure of that (certainly not with 100% of their mon...
by Atgard
Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

Again, what you just said is the truly pernicious problem with the bond scare talk. A poster comes here, hears that they you shouldn't use bonds (or bond funds! a perrenial favorite), they should stick to bank accounts, and upon realizing that they can't use any with the bulk of their money they ar...
by Atgard
Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

I think you guys may be playing semantic games to argue my core point. Even the "Risk and Time" study you linked proves my point. It is talking about "risk" as a "wide spread of possible outcomes." Yes, the spread between the lowest possible ending dollar amount and highest possible ending dollar am...
by Atgard
Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

Like I said, I think the risk that stocks have negative real return over a 30-year period (which is theoretically possible, but has never happened) is less than the risk that 30-year bonds with historically low rates will have negative real return over that period. I know either, or both, or neither...
by Atgard
Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

I'm not saying to go 100% stock, or even to change the AA that's right for you. I'm just saying we all know stocks become less risky/volatile when held over longer time periods. So, 30-year bonds paying 3.4% don't make a lot of sense to me, when that's much lower than any 30-year period in the histo...
by Atgard
Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

thx1138 and ogd , thanks for the replies. I get that Apple (or China, which has almost as much money :wink: ) can't stick their cash in bank accounts, so I shouldn't have accused treasuries of being priced inefficiently. I was concerned with personal investing. And what you say about a "free lunch"...
by Atgard
Mon Apr 28, 2014 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

OK, so 2-year rates are 0.43% and 5-year rates are 1.72%. The 2-year rates are lower than a liquid savings account, so I don't know who is buying those or how they are priced "efficiently." The 5-year rates give you about 0.7% or 0.8% over the best liquid savings accounts, if you are willing to lock...
by Atgard
Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: deleted
Replies: 60
Views: 16781

Re: How low are interest rates, really?

I realize that bonds and bond funds are more complicated than they first appear, and that everything is priced into the market. However, I think there are a couple of truths: 1.) Interest rates can not physically go much lower, since they are close to zero, especially short-term rates. If rates of b...
by Atgard
Thu Apr 24, 2014 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?
Replies: 44
Views: 6629

Re: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?

Interesting subject -- thanks for posting it. Personally I can say I dislike the gambling / risk aspect of the stock market, and would gladly take a similar return with no volatility (including no chance for dramatic upward swings as well). One can make or lose money at both stocks and casinos. The ...
by Atgard
Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lottery value more than 4 times all possible tickets
Replies: 13
Views: 2948

Re: Lottery value more than 4 times all possible tickets

Just because the odds are 1 in 14 million doesn't mean Ohio can only sell 14 million tickets, especially when the jackpot is high. The higher the jackpot, the more people will buy tickets, and the higher the chance of multiple winners. I also find it interesting how many more people get interested w...
by Atgard
Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Solo 401k Contribution Limit Confusion
Replies: 7
Views: 1379

Re: Solo 401k Contribution Limit Confusion

Another weird twist is my accountant said when the tax software calculated my contribution by separating out 3 sources of 1099 income, the allowable contribution amount was lower than if it was all combined. I have to think the combined total is the correct one, or am I still missing something here?...
by Atgard
Fri Apr 18, 2014 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income Categories
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: Fixed Income Categories

I also consider cash, interest-paying savings/checking accounts, CDs, I-bonds, and bonds as "Fixed Income" or "Cash" or "Bonds" or whatever you want to call it. The principal is generally safe, and they pay some interest rate. Of course there are variations as far as liquidity and rate and principal...
by Atgard
Fri Apr 18, 2014 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge
Replies: 24
Views: 3643

Re: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge

I don't think it's relevant to compare gold's performance when it was used as currency or under Bretton Woods when it was tied to $35 an ounce. Neither of those scenarios is in effect today, neither seems likely to happen again anytime soon, and if they do, I doubt it will come out of the clear blue...
by Atgard
Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gold , silver, copper and uranium only
Replies: 46
Views: 4847

Re: gold , silver, copper and uranium only

I've always thought I'd like a paperweight made from depleted uranium. That a 1 oz gold coin is unexpectedly heavy doesn't do it for me. Unexpectedly heavy? Doesn't it weigh one ounce, which is exactly what one would expect? :wink: Yes, I know you meant "unexpectedly dense" and am just joshing with...
by Atgard
Wed Apr 09, 2014 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Expensive hobbies and possessions? (B/c you can...)
Replies: 126
Views: 21794

Re: Expensive hobbies and possessions? (B/c you can...)

Hobbies with expensive start-up costs - photography, mountain biking, (automotive) track days All this has changed now that we have a 5-month old baby. For me, the expensive photography hobby started BECAUSE of the new baby. Definitely worth it when I look at my improvement as a photographer and th...
by Atgard
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Solo 401k Contribution Limit Confusion
Replies: 7
Views: 1379

Re: Solo 401k Contribution Limit Confusion

mah001 , thank you for the explanation. I still don't see where in section 415(c) it says that compensation does not include the employer contribution, but I will take your word for it. I figured the IRS form must be correct, but I could not find ANYTHING else corroborating or explaining it. So is ...
by Atgard
Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Solo 401k Contribution Limit Confusion
Replies: 7
Views: 1379

Solo 401k Contribution Limit Confusion

Hi all, I have been lurking for a while and absorbing everything I can from the great minds here. However, I have not been able to find a consistent answer to my question regarding Solo 401k contribution limits. According to the Bogleheads Wiki [link fixed by admin LadyGeek] , the contribution limit...