Search found 1894 matches

by BigJohn
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2377

Re: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?

I started retirement 5 years ago at 35/65 to mitigate SORR. I’d make two comments for you to consider... I think 1.5% per year is too small a change to be worth fiddling with. It’s far lower than my rebalancing tolerance bands which are set at 5%. My plan is to hold here for 10 years and then reeva...
by BigJohn
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Slightly overweighting small-caps?
Replies: 33
Views: 1369

Re: Slightly overweighting small-caps?

For me the issue with a small tilt is that it really doesn’t move the total portfolio return in a meaningful way even if it works as planned. If tracking error causes you to bail out of the tilt at the wrong time, it can be an real hurt far bigger than the theoretical help. Moving the total return n...
by BigJohn
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2377

Re: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?

I started retirement 5 years ago at 35/65 to mitigate SORR. I’d make two comments for you to consider... I think 1.5% per year is too small a change to be worth fiddling with. It’s far lower than my rebalancing tolerance bands which are set at 5%. My plan is to hold here for 10 years and then reeval...
by BigJohn
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12956

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

Not a factor investor. My two a-ha moments 1) Reading Bill Bernstein’s “Skating were the Puck Was” 2) Doing some simple math that showed a small tilt (ie 5-10%) even if true would not make a huge change in my total return. It takes a true believers to tilt at 4-5 times that amount and so I discovere...
by BigJohn
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time for us to get out?
Replies: 20
Views: 2595

Re: Is it time for us to get out?

I agree with comments above that at very high bond allocations, inflation risk becomes a bigger worry. As a result, I’d consider putting maybe half of your bond allocation in TIPS. For background, I used Bernstien’s approach to set my retirement AA at 35/65 about 5 years ago. Initially didn’t use TI...
by BigJohn
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4422

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Everything, Mega caps have pulled the weight of the gains for the last decade. Gold really??? Long term treasuries at 1.xx% really? Switch treasuries for total bond Switch gold for QQQ I almost feel like OP is trolling OP, do you see how much people here despise gold and long-term treasuries? These...
by BigJohn
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can't turn off dividend reinvestment with Vanguard
Replies: 20
Views: 1491

Re: Can't turn off dividend reinvestment with Vanguard

I converted all my accounts to brokerage years ago, primarily driven by desire to be able to do Roth conversions online. There are a few differences that I miss but I’d call them all minor inconveniences, nothing major. It’s just become the new normal. The upgrades went without a hitch but I’d make ...
by BigJohn
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can't turn off dividend reinvestment with Vanguard
Replies: 20
Views: 1491

Re: Can't turn off dividend reinvestment with Vanguard

Is this the old style mutual fund account? If so, I suspect you need to already hold Fed MM in order to redirect dividends there. A newer brokerage account should already contain Fed MM with a zero balance as the settlement fund. If you’re getting this message with a brokerage account something seem...
by BigJohn
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68431

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I just barbell my EDV holdings with enough cash to see me through a bad year. Problem solved. Well, problem solved for me but I'm 29 with no dependents and private disability insurance to cover lost income if I'm unable to work for medical reasons. Some of the unexpected life events you mention can...
by BigJohn
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68431

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I'm missing the same thing. There is a high level of uncertainty for anyone to predict the exact time frame over which they'll need money and exactly how much money they'll need. All the nice arithmetic models and graphs given to support LTT alone assume that the investor knows this information wit...
by BigJohn
Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Follow Bernstein or Bogle
Replies: 99
Views: 7587

Re: Follow Bernstein or Bogle

Yes, between inflation indexed annuities being a theoretical rather than an actual possibility and current low interest rates the whole concept of the LMP becomes a theory rather than a practical tool. But that is a demonstration that we are never immune to the accidents of history. It is still tru...
by BigJohn
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Follow Bernstein or Bogle
Replies: 99
Views: 7587

Re: Follow Bernstein or Bogle

How accurately would a TIPS fund address the LMP requirement. I agree with dbr that it’s not a perfect match to your liabilities. However, since those liabilities are just estimates, I personally think it’s “close enough”. While managing a ladder of TIPS isn’t all that difficult, I made a decision ...
by BigJohn
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Size Based Allocation Glidepath
Replies: 11
Views: 776

Re: Portfolio Size Based Allocation Glidepath

Similar to approach I’ve taken but I personally agree with comments above about being a bit more conservative. If you’ve “won the game” at 30+x, why keep play so aggressively at 60/40? I used an LMP type approach and set my AA at 35/65 when I started retirement 5 years ago. Sleeping like a baby thro...
by BigJohn
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your AA once you hit 7 figures
Replies: 34
Views: 2687

Re: Your AA once you hit 7 figures

DW and I follow Bernstein's "Life Cycle Investing" in his book, "Ages of the Investor". zero pension, annuities, etc. zero human capital, retired. So. . . .hybrid LMP/Permanent Portfolio. North of 25X. Drifts between 30/70 and 25/75 at this point. +1 Very similar to my approach. I went to 60/40 abo...
by BigJohn
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For Retirees Without Pensions .... Fixed Portion?
Replies: 32
Views: 3276

Re: For Retirees Without Pensions .... Fixed Portion?

Retired five years ago at age 58. Having won the game at >25x, I used Bernstein’s LMP approach to set my AA at 35/65. For the fixed income component I keep 2-3 years expenses in short term high quality treasury bond fund. For the rest, I used Int Tax Exempt in my taxable account and a 50/50 mix of i...
by BigJohn
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?
Replies: 136
Views: 11635

Re: Do you want to own the whole haystack when someone has a blowtorch?

Sure, there will be winners and losers but to profit from that you have to know more than the professionals who do this for a living. What do you think you know that they don’t? If nothing, then those possibilities are already priced in.
by BigJohn
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 8067

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

I guess my approach is a bit of a hybrid. When I retired I set my AA based on Bernstein’s LMP idea of have 30 years (I retired at 58) of minimum expenses in safe assets. My primary motivation was minimizing sequence of return risk in the first 10 years (been retired 5 years). My plan is to leave the...
by BigJohn
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 14843

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

So the bond/equity relationship is at least temporarily broken (to the doxxer types who are digging up my past and posting about my switch from 3-fund to 100% equities, it's not looking super terrible at the moment right now, is it? Are you all rebalancing into down stocks with...down BND sales?) B...
by BigJohn
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Replies: 17
Views: 1490

Re: Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?

Thanks folks. I understand now that if I sell within the next 12 months (is that correct) I will get hit with 15% capital gains (is this correct?) Also, if I sell on the short term, Vanguard could restrict me for a certain amount of time from purchasing Vanguard Total Stock Market again? Thanks- th...
by BigJohn
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH inside a Trust; Pros and Cons?
Replies: 3
Views: 191

Re: TLH inside a Trust; Pros and Cons?

The trust is a separate EIN and tax return so no connection in wash sales between that and my taxable/IRA accounts.
by BigJohn
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH inside a Trust; Pros and Cons?
Replies: 3
Views: 191

Re: TLH inside a Trust; Pros and Cons?

Bump.... anyone with experience or perspective?
by BigJohn
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH inside a Trust; Pros and Cons?
Replies: 3
Views: 191

TLH inside a Trust; Pros and Cons?

I’m the trustee and income beneficiary for my wife’s testamentary trust. Capital gains stay in the trust for our kids who are the principle beneficiaries. Given trust tax rates, I have focused on ensuring that capital gains are kept to near zero. Over the past few years I’ve done a bit of TLH in ord...
by BigJohn
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Post TLH: What to do?
Replies: 7
Views: 655

Re: Post TLH: What to do?

Exactly how I’ve cleaned up my portfolio over the last few years. As long as you move straight to total stock your AA is unchanged, your risk is lower and you’ve avoided LTCG tax hit. Enjoy the lemonade!
by BigJohn
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone (now) regret choosing a lump sum vs. annuity option?
Replies: 16
Views: 1339

Re: Anyone (now) regret choosing a lump sum vs. annuity option?

Took a lump sum when I retired 5 years ago. Having won the game, I used Bill Bernstein's LMP approach and invested at an AA of 35/65. Still sleeping well at night, sold bonds and bought stocks to rebalance back to that target last week, no regrets here :beer
by BigJohn
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"
Replies: 51
Views: 6826

Re: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"

Bill’s life cycle investing and LMP approach were keys to designing my retirement portfolio. Not only am I still sleeping well at night, I bought stock to rebalance back to my target AA last week.

Thanks Bill :sharebeer
by BigJohn
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cost basis during Roth conversion
Replies: 31
Views: 1897

Re: Cost basis during Roth conversion

OP, Strange — have a meeting with them today and will review. I have done about 20 Conversions over the last few years and have Always Gotten the end of day price. The conversion has NEVER happened while the market was open, only overnight. WoodSpinner Where you converting MF shares? That's what I ...
by BigJohn
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvesting - Chevron for Exxon
Replies: 5
Views: 380

Re: Tax loss harvesting - Chevron for Exxon

Use it as an opportunity to become more “bogley”. Sell Chevron and buy total stock. Why exchange one individual stock risk for another or for a sector bet?
by BigJohn
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is my refusal to address rebalancing right now irresponsible/unbogle? Or can it be justified?
Replies: 19
Views: 1555

Re: Is my refusal to address rebalancing right now irresponsible/unbogle? Or can it be justified?

Certainly not irresponsible and there are lots of people on this forum doing exactly what you’re doing. Execution complexity aside, I think it’s an indication that your target AA was too aggressive. Wait for this to stabilize a bit, give it some thought and then decide at what AA would you have bee ...
by BigJohn
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for managed vs passive index equity funds now?
Replies: 10
Views: 757

Re: The case for managed vs passive index equity funds now?

The problem with your friends point is that the manager has to have the secret sauce to know which sectors are worst/best in advance. Some will get it right and some won’t, you will not know which you bought until it’s too late to change. What is certain whether they win or lose is that you will pay...
by BigJohn
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 126
Views: 11015

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

Two way rebalancing may not be your cup of tea but not sure I’d call it unrealistic. I went into retirement five years ago with an AA of 35/65. I did this to mitigate sequence of return risk. The 65 was based on an LMP type approach (liability matching portfolio) and it has allowed me to sleep well ...
by BigJohn
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are people who are using their portfolio for income doing?
Replies: 42
Views: 1996

Re: What are people who are using their portfolio for income doing?

I'm a little surprised at the responses. Doesn't withdrawing at a different allocation based on the feeling that "stock prices are low" violate the principle that supports, say, the 4% rule that determines your probability of long-term success? As far as rebalancing goes, that it something that is ...
by BigJohn
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Markets In Turmoil - Boring Responses
Replies: 65
Views: 5747

Re: Markets In Turmoil - Boring Responses

My boring responses to date.... Did 50% of my planned Roth conversion in the last two weeks. Hit my 5% rebalancing bands today, sold bonds, bought stocks to get back to target. Did some significant TLH today in my total international index fund. Plan to do more of the same if this bull market contin...
by BigJohn
Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Gifting Shares - Now Available On-Line
Replies: 1
Views: 232

Vanguard Gifting Shares - Now Available On-Line

I haven't seen this posted elsewhere so just an FYI. One of my minor frustrations with VG has always been having to fill out a 5 page form and use snail mail to gift shares. I went to do my annual gifting this weekend and they now have an on-line option. I filled out the form, signed electronically,...
by BigJohn
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing of Roth Conversions
Replies: 7
Views: 691

Re: Timing of Roth Conversions

Timing Roth conversions is still timing. Not sure I agree with this. For me it’s not a speculative play on the short term direction of prices or interest rates. My conversion amount in dollars is unchanged and therefore so is my tax bill. Since I’m transferring shares, my “bet” on VTI and overall a...
by BigJohn
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing of Roth Conversions
Replies: 7
Views: 691

Re: Timing of Roth Conversions

I did about 25% of my planned conversion last week for just this reason. I’ll do the same this week if VTI drop another 10%.
by BigJohn
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best 1041 Tax Form Software for Trust
Replies: 5
Views: 593

Re: Best 1041 Tax Form Software for Trust

I use TurboTax Business to prepare the 1041 and K1 for my wife's testamentary trust. It works much like the personal version and gets the job done. No experience with other products.
by BigJohn
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Company Stock NUA Question
Replies: 7
Views: 515

Re: Company Stock NUA Question

I did this a few years ago and agree with the advice already given. I'll just add that it's important to know what your plan allows with respect to the after tax balance. My plan allowed me to withdraw my after tax contributions in NUA stock at it's cost basis. As I result I was able to remove a sig...
by BigJohn
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Divorced but ex is not pushing for Qdro
Replies: 19
Views: 3103

Re: Divorced but ex is not pushing for Qdro

QDROs and pensions can be tricky. Each state is going to be different and each pension within that state can be different. The one that I'm familiar with could hold up your retirement for up 6 months if there is a pending unsigned QDRO. The ex would have to show she was entitled to something (liste...
by BigJohn
Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal Tax on Roth Conversion
Replies: 48
Views: 3685

Re: Federal Tax on Roth Conversion

In my first year I did Estimated payment quarterly to get to safe harbor amount and then paid the large tax due without penalty. In subsequent years I have a better feel for my conversion amount and taxes due so still targeting the safe harbor but that is now much closer to actual so sometimes I owe...
by BigJohn
Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Claiming SS for deceased spouse
Replies: 10
Views: 869

Re: Claiming SS for deceased spouse

In the same situation as your coworker. I agree with posts that benefit of claiming now depends on the impact of means testing. If there is no benefit to claiming now, I think the right strategy down the road would be to claim his wife’s benefits as soon as he retires and wait to claim his until 70....
by BigJohn
Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard
Replies: 90
Views: 7324

Re: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard

Been with VG 15+ years without any issues. In addition to routine buying, selling, check writing, during this period I have created and reassigned UGMA accounts, upgraded VG accounts from MF to brokerage platform, transferred assets in from other brokerage firms, done on-line Roth conversions, creat...
by BigJohn
Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: on-line Roth IRA conversion at Vanguard?
Replies: 9
Views: 586

Re: on-line Roth IRA conversion at Vanguard?

I’ve done it on-line several times and it’s easy and reliable. Two comments that may or may not apply. You cannot do it with one account on the MF platform and one on the brokerage platform. I had to do the account upgrade of my tIRA to get both on brokerage and then it worked great. I have no exper...
by BigJohn
Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Reason for Multiple Roth IRA Accounts Post-TCJA?
Replies: 12
Views: 702

Re: Any Reason for Multiple Roth IRA Accounts Post-TCJA?

I started Roth conversions a few years ago and kept each year in a separate account in order to make potential recharacterization easier. With that option removed by the TCJA, I could see no reason for that added complexity and collapsed them all into a single account last year.
by BigJohn
Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferred : Taxable : Tax Free
Replies: 224
Views: 14564

Re: Tax Deferred : Taxable : Tax Free

One thing in particular to point out is the sudden tax jump when a couple turns into a single widow. There is a huge and often unexpected increase in tax liability. Having first hand experience with this I couldn't agree more although I had run the case and knew what was coming. Anyone that is eval...
by BigJohn
Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 179
Views: 20529

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

ERN has done significant evaluation of rising equity glide paths here: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/ Thanks for the link, I had not seen that article before. The last paragraph is a good summary of why I've chosen a ...
by BigJohn
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 179
Views: 20529

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

Hi MP. It sure has generated much more discussion that I expected. Here’s my current perspective on the subject: 1) The bond tent/rising equity glide path reduces SOR risk by increasing longevity risk. I believe that tradeoff is being ignored by it’s proponents. 2) I believe that’s probably a bad t...
by BigJohn
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pre-Tax + After-Tax + Match MAX: Any way to easily avoid IRS limit ($57k)
Replies: 11
Views: 1160

Re: Pre-Tax + After-Tax + Match MAX: Any way to easily avoid IRS limit ($57k)

In my employer's 401k plan, the contributions automatically stop once the limit is reached. I would guess that most 401k plans work this way. I guess I just need to try and plan it so that I max out on the last pay period. As long as the last pay period has a contribution above 4% while reaching 57...
by BigJohn
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferred : Taxable : Tax Free
Replies: 224
Views: 14564

Re: Tax Deferred : Taxable : Tax Free

Retired at 58, currently 63 and widowed so filing single. When I started retirement it was about 70:30:0. I’ve been doing fairly aggressive Roth conversions for four years and currently stand at about 60:30:10. Unless tax laws change significantly, I plan to continue Roth conversions for seven more ...