Search found 1894 matches

by BigJohn
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 414
Views: 73283

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

I am curious how many Bogleheads are investing in TIPS? Inflation is expected to be low. Not much income from TIPS at the moment. Thoughts appreciated. TIPS protect against unexpected inflation so to me inflation expectations are immaterial. TIPS are also not really designed to generate steady inco...
by BigJohn
Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 2120

Re: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?

I never thought of this but the role of private equity certainly fits the bill as another system change that could make the historical small value statistics invalid going forward. Just another reason to add to my list of why I don’t tilt.
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question

If it's a jointly owned credit card account, the wife is still on the hook for the existing balances. Card will not be closed. Maybe different companies have different policies but when my wife passed away, both our CC companies (Visa, Discover) told me the same thing. A CC account can have only on...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Much Company Stock In Old 401k?
Replies: 15
Views: 1055

Re: Too Much Company Stock In Old 401k?

NOTE: If you pass, your beneficiaries inherit your unsold NUA shares. The value of those shares does get a basis adjustment EXCEPT for the NUA itself. Therefore, the cost basis per shares and gains after the LSD would receive the DOD basis adjustment. Alan, in this scenario.... NUA cost basis $15/s...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion and form 8606
Replies: 12
Views: 882

Re: Roth Conversion and form 8606

Lots of forum discussions and articles out there that show that paying taxes with money from a taxable account outside of the conversion is the right answer. From a 50,000 foot perspective there are two reasons for that. More money in Roth getting tax free growth for years and less money in the taxa...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Much Company Stock In Old 401k?
Replies: 15
Views: 1055

Re: Too Much Company Stock In Old 401k?

You should be aware of NUA tax rules (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Net_unrealized_appreciation) and whether it applies to your spouse's company stock in the old 401k, which depending on you and your spouse's tax situation, it may be advantageous to keep the company stock in the 401k for now. You...
by BigJohn
Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of Roth conversion at Vanguard
Replies: 11
Views: 1224

Re: Mechanics of Roth conversion at Vanguard

following - when we converted last year (Dec 18) we could not do an asset transfer, had to sell, move cash, reinvest (of course, exposing one to reinvestment risk) Perhaps this had to do with the type of account - there have been so many account type changes at Vanguard. I believe this is a functio...
by BigJohn
Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of Roth conversion at Vanguard
Replies: 11
Views: 1224

Re: Mechanics of Roth conversion at Vanguard

Are all of your IRA accounts on the new brokerage platform? At least when I did my first conversion three years ago, you could not do an on-line conversion unless both the traditional and Roth accounts were on the new platform. This was my incentive to make that change for my oldest account.
by BigJohn
Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Barbell one's [TIPS]?
Replies: 40
Views: 3872

Re: Time to Barbell one's [TIPS]?

ty grok, I never considered that but it make perfect sense.
by BigJohn
Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Barbell one's [TIPS]?
Replies: 40
Views: 3872

Re: Time to Barbell one's [TIPS]?

grok87 wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:22 am 1) short term tips have deflation risk. this in general would be correlated with stock market risk IMO. in other words short term tips may have higher "beta".
grok, can you explain what you mean by deflation risk? Is this unique to TIPS or generic for all ST bonds?
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GE Pension Buyout
Replies: 85
Views: 13546

Re: GE Pension Buyout

A potential implication not mentioned yet is the impact on taxable income and Roth conversions. This is very dependent on your retirement plans and financial situation but, if you plan to do conversions post retirement but pre-SS and RMDs, any of the pension options will increase your taxable income...
by BigJohn
Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces investment strategy -- opinions?
Replies: 48
Views: 4694

Re: Michael Kitces investment strategy -- opinions?

If you look at comparisons of various strategies near the end of the prime harvesting paper it would seem that any variation on the theme of rising equity gives similar results and all four beat a fixed allocation. It's likely not statistically significant but the simple rising equity was slightly b...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces investment strategy -- opinions?
Replies: 48
Views: 4694

Re: Michael Kitces investment strategy -- opinions?

in my mind that would make the case for a liability matching portfolio more so than the rising equity glide path. I think liability matching often results is a rising equity glide path so not sure there that different in practice. If you’re 65 and put 30 years in safe bonds and the rest in stocks y...
by BigJohn
Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7544

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

Recently all the statistically based sciences have entered a replication crisis, causing this always-shaky analogy to completely collapse. As for the discipline of economics, it's basically been in a permanent replication crisis ever since the discipline was founded. I've been reading more and more...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 03, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7544

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

I’ve read most of the value/tilt threads and would offer the following opinion. Most of the people saying abandon ship were never factor believers in the first place. Then add the fact that for whatever reason value/tilt discussions always generate much more emotion than international which makes th...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: How do you handle quarterly tax payments?
Replies: 45
Views: 4015

Re: Retirees: How do you handle quarterly tax payments?

I start off the year using 25% of the safe harbor number for the first two payments. Before the Sept and YE payments I do a quick check on whether this year is looking much different than last and adjust if needed.
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target date retirement fund vs three funds
Replies: 19
Views: 3342

Re: Target date retirement fund vs three funds

I helped my kids (now mid 20’s to early 30’s) establish their Roth’s and given them a gift contribution each year. So far none of them seem very interested in working investment strategy details (eg rebalancing) and I don’t want to be in a position to be their money manager. So my advice to them was...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are banks required to freeze accounts when notified of account holder's death
Replies: 35
Views: 4423

Re: Are banks required to freeze accounts when notified of account holder's death

I was told that access to accounts and box would not be an issue. However, just to be sure, I waited months to inform our two financial institutions of my wife’s passing. By that time the succession was complete and I had all the paperwork needed if they had become difficult. I had also cancelled he...
by BigJohn
Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 6239

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

I’m not sure about the use of “all” in that statement. It is likely than many if not of the 600+ factors that have been published were just that. Factors like value, size, momentum, and quality certainly were motivated by their less formal usage by active managers going as far back as Benjamin Grah...
by BigJohn
Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 6239

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

When the regressions were first run, book to market turned out to have more predictive value than other measures. I hope that is not how the work was done. If you try enough things in existing data, you will eventually find some effects, but you have no way of knowing if it is just an artifact of c...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are banks required to freeze accounts when notified of account holder's death
Replies: 35
Views: 4423

Re: Are banks required to freeze accounts when notified of account holder's death

If the account was a joint account, do they still freeze the account? I would hope not since the other account holder will likely need access to funds. In my experience as long as the joint account is A or B (rather than A and B) the survivor will still have full access to the accounts and safety d...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do early retirees survive bad markets?
Replies: 26
Views: 5266

Re: How do early retirees survive bad markets?

I didn't let the tax efficiency of bonds in tax free/deferred space drive my entire allocation. I wanted some bonds in taxable for just this reason. I use a high quality muni bond fund to minimize the tax hit but this won't make sense for all depending on your tax bracket. The bottom line for me is ...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 10551

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

I've been living off just my investments (no SS, no pension) for five years since early retirement at age 58. I did two things to manage sequence of return risk. I put about 2 years of expenses in short term, high quality bonds as a cushion to use if stocks go south and intermediate term bonds get h...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 28, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 6239

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

I don’t know anything about Verdad Advisors, but the point of the article is very separate from the authors. The thesis stands on its own, independent of who wrote it. Currently value looks quite cheap by historical standards, which implies relatively higher forward looking expected returns. Dave I...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 28, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 6239

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

I don’t know anything about Verdad Advisors, but the point of the article is very separate from the authors. The thesis stands on its own, independent of who wrote it. Currently value looks quite cheap by historical standards, which implies relatively higher forward looking expected returns. Dave I...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard brokerage account transition
Replies: 237
Views: 26878

Re: vanguard investment platform

I too have declined to switch to the brokerage only platform. I use dividend redirection, and the brokerage only platform does not allow that. When approached by Vanguard to switch, I've explained that when they fix the dividend redirection, I'll be ok to switch. Until then, I'm not going to volunt...
by BigJohn
Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 119
Views: 9041

Re: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

There are problems with the Alts, the biggest one is the "late to the party" problem. The research and the theory behind the Alt funds that Larry recommends is impeccable but somehow real life is different. Problem is that the hedge funds were all over the Alts before Larry recommended them. I thin...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Aid Volunteering for AARP or VITA
Replies: 52
Views: 3340

Re: Tax Aid Volunteering for AARP or VITA

I might be interested in one of these volunteer programs, but I'm wondering whether there are any liability issues if I make a mistake. Can anyone shed any light on this? No liability issues if you follow the rules. See information on the VPA starting on p14 https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p4961.pdf
by BigJohn
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 20256

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

It's not that we're finding patterns where there are none. It's that we're NOT finding patterns where the theory (CAPM) says there should. So what do you do when a theory says X should occur, but you don't quite see that in the data. So how about this explanation. The 30% that is not explained by b...
by BigJohn
Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 20256

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

It's not that we're finding patterns where there are none. It's that we're NOT finding patterns where the theory (CAPM) says there should. So what do you do when a theory says X should occur, but you don't quite see that in the data. So how about this explanation. The 30% that is not explained by b...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 20256

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

My apologies, I was not trying to be provocative or insulting. The point I was trying to make that is relevant to the topic is this. Historical investment results exist in the context of the people, society and financial systems at the time. These systems change and therefore the results may well de...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 20256

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Economics isn't a real science. Not enough data points. Unable to perform repeatable experiments. A non-static environment. The rules change every few decades. It's more of a math game than anything. Except it's a math game where human emotions and human laws can change the rules of the game. There...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvesting in brokerage accounts
Replies: 11
Views: 990

Re: Tax loss harvesting in brokerage accounts

My tax loss harvesting pairs are Total Stock/S&P 500 and Total International Stock/FTSE All World Index. I have a preference for the total stock versions as more inclusive but have stayed in the others for long periods waiting for a loss. While waiting, I have not added anything to try to make up fo...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 254
Views: 34078

Re: The Big Short's Michael Burry on why index funds are like subprime CDOs - why is he wrong?

I don't think he is wrong. Since Index investing doesn't punish the bad companies, doesn't reward the good companies, it creates opportunities for good fund managers to explore. As index funds grow bigger, I would think the opportunities grows bigger. I imagine eventually he (or someone else) will ...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 4547

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

nedsaid wrote: Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:36 pm We might need to figure out what the new rules are.
If I ever figure this out I promise you'll be the first to know :sharebeer
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 4547

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

There is also the option of buying your TIPS over time. Amazing that everything here is on/off, yes/no. My argument has been pretty cautious and measured. I fully agree and I never advocated on/off. When I retired and moved some of my bond assets to TIPS, I did so by converting X% every quarter for...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 4547

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

So it isn't that I am trying to be in or out of bonds, it is that I am trying to avoid overpaying for them. In this case, it doesn't seem that TIPS are in any sort of a bubble. But I might want to place a call to a trusted expert before placing a big order. In a similar manner, Larry Swedroe saw th...
by BigJohn
Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 4547

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

There is a point where you might be better off in nominal treasuries, hence the discussion of expected inflation vs. breakeven inflation rate. Any asset class can get so expensive that future expected returns will be quite muted. It appears from the calculations above that TIPS are relatively cheap...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 68373

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

In any given period, either the shortest term bonds or the longest term bonds are going to "work" the best from a Sharpe Ratio perspective. Intermediate bonds (which covers a pretty broad range) will never be the best. For those who are not trying match liabilities but are simply trying to construc...
by BigJohn
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 98
Views: 8180

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

I have tried really hard to be objective here, certainly I have relied upon information Larry has given and often in posts referred to his work. Also not trying to turn the forum into a Larry Swedroe fan club. But we do have to realize what a special thing we have here, that is someone with Larry's...
by BigJohn
Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help picking a muni bond fund
Replies: 7
Views: 1222

Re: Need help picking a muni bond fund

I thought long and hard about VWIUX vs VTEAX two years ago, and I opted to go with VWIUX because it has a slightly shorter duration than VTEAX and doesn't have the purchase fee. I'm not concerned about it being an active fund because the managers are not forced to own everything in the municipal bo...
by BigJohn
Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 98
Views: 8180

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

Also want to say that I hope this discussion doesn't turn into a Buckingham bashing session. It sounds to me that they are a good firm and very conscientious. We are in a period where Value is out of style so inevitably such strategies will experience tracking error compared to the broad indexes. T...
by BigJohn
Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 98
Views: 8180

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

A portfolio with alts does not have to be expensive. VPGDX has an expense ratio of 0.32% and no advisor fees needed. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vpgdx Despite the name (managed payout) dividends can be reinvested and the portfolio is a modern portfolio theory-based ...
by BigJohn
Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 98
Views: 8180

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

Anyway, SRRIX 5 year returns are what? Their annual report states Since Inception (12/9/13) of 2.96%. I understand global reinsurance composite produced a return on equity of 6.0%. I wonder that the difference. Ff you read the CEO's comments, nothing went wrong in 2018. They lost money and it happe...
by BigJohn
Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 98
Views: 8180

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

nedsaid, thanks for correcting the numbers on SRRIX, I was looking at price not total return :oops: So a drag but not nearly as bad as I stated. I also appreciate riplip posting the details, this has been an enlightening discussion. Riplip, if you’re willing to share, I would like to better understa...
by BigJohn
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 98
Views: 8180

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

First, I think the Buckingham portfolios are perfectly fine. They are doing what they are designed to do. Unfortunately, everything doesn't always work all of the time. We have had a decade of Large Growth stocks leading the market so Small/Value tilted portfolios would trail a Taylor Larimore 3 fu...
by BigJohn
Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 98
Views: 8180

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

In this thread and in the other BAM thread the common thing I noted is the huge bet on Small Value they took on, and lost. I calculated 30% in US + Intl SV in the portfolio posted by OP. That is out of a total of 75% equities, so a whopping 40% of equities is in SCV! That too deep value funds like ...
by BigJohn
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual municipal bonds vs municipal bond funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1250

Re: Individual municipal bonds vs municipal bond funds

As a generalization one would never be wise to invest in individual munis. I agree. In addition to the diversification issue mentioned above there are two other reasons. First, bond funds are more liquid than individual bonds. In addition, bond pricing for individuals isn’t very transparent and the...
by BigJohn
Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Aid Volunteering for AARP or VITA
Replies: 52
Views: 3340

Re: Tax Aid Volunteering for AARP or VITA

I have been amazed that some of the biggest wirehouses seemed to provide very poor tax reporting service. They left clients with zero tax basis without volunteering to help them. I advised the clients to call their highly paid salespeople for assistance in estimating the basis. And it was amazing t...
by BigJohn
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Aid Volunteering for AARP or VITA
Replies: 52
Views: 3340

Re: Tax Aid Volunteering for AARP or VITA

I’ve been an AARP volunteer for the 5 years since I retired and enjoy the experience immensely. Almost all of our clients are truly needy and I love when a new client says thanks for saving them the several hundred dollars they were paying at H&R Block. Probably 75% of our clients are repeat custome...