Search found 2190 matches

by asif408
Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poor performing portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 7317

Re: Poor performing portfolio

I'm counting on Small Caps to rebound strongly in 2022. As for International I don't have much hope but i'll just hold on to what I have, not contributing new money to either Small Caps or International. So why bother holding them if you don't add more after they've underperformed? If you're not wi...
by asif408
Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Commodity producer ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 376

Re: Commodity producer ETF

I use FILL (Global Energy Producers) and RING (Global Gold Miners). There are probably others.
by asif408
Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

I've never seen a single human claim that one country would have the best individual stock performance. You must not come here very often, then. Who has said that the US will perform better than every single country? You're engaging in rank trolling. Not trolling, simply an observation. When a sign...
by asif408
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fund Performance Comparisons
Replies: 23
Views: 1310

Re: Fund Performance Comparisons

Good points but I think historical growth/past performance does mean something and I'd sure want to know how a fund has performed YTD, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr 10yr and since inception before investing. I realize past performance is no guarantee of future results but if a fund has consistently outperformed an...
by asif408
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments
Replies: 34
Views: 2824

Re: Alternative Investments

That's easy, 100% EM Value is the way to go: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... gust-2020/
by asif408
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 33
Views: 2819

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

Investors buy recent winners rather than build a well-balanced portfolio because of a myopic view of performance. Over the last 40 years, growth has outperformed value 20 times, and value has outperformed growth 20 times, but in the recent past growth has outperformed. so if value and growth have o...
by asif408
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 33
Views: 2819

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

Unfortunately, Paul, I think this thread will be the proverbial "shouting into the wind". I've done it myself but it just becomes a game of whack a mole most of the time, as there are too many threads.
by asif408
Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ
Replies: 33
Views: 2670

Re: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ

But, a part of me strongly wants to keep the stock/buy even more Apple stock given the recent meteoric rise and my belief that Apple stock will continue to grow over the next 5 years. That said, I am unable to discern whether this belief stems from recency/familiarity bias. What do you all think? H...
by asif408
Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ
Replies: 33
Views: 2670

Re: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ

Considering that you all of your income is derived from the US tech sector, I would suggest putting some of your money elsewhere. The odds are when tech stocks are doing poorly (which at some point they will) the odds that you might be laid off/let go are higher too. If you want invest some money in...
by asif408
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock that can act like bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 2584

Re: Stock that can act like bonds

I'll go one step farther than other posters, OP, and tell you that not only will stocks not act like high quality bonds in a true crisis, but many bonds (think junk bonds and emerging markets bonds) will not either.
by asif408
Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1170

Re: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds

It looks like Vanguard's int'l value fund has actually had the same performance as DFA's int'l value fund since the mid 1990s, although the paths to get there were different: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=VWIGX&symbols=VTRIX&benchmark=DFIVX It looks like the Vanguar...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

columbia wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:09 pm I've never seen a single human claim that one country would have the best individual stock performance.
You must not come here very often, then.
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

For everyone picking various endpoints to debate what is "recency bias" and not, according to the Dimson-Marsh data the US has outperformed ex-US by 2% since 1900. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Right, but Australia has the best returns of any country, according to the late...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

For everyone picking various endpoints to debate what is "recency bias" and not, according to the Dimson-Marsh data the US has outperformed ex-US by 2% since 1900. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Right, but Australia has the best returns of any country, according to the late...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

burritoLover wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:47 am I didn't put forth the information - you did. If you are going put something forth as definitive fact, it is not my responsibility to do all the leg-work to confirm it.
Why not give it a try?
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

I'd be glad to look over specific year-to-year returns (ex-Japan) when you cite them from a reliable source that doesn't involve checking out a book from the library. This may come as a shock, but sometimes you actually have to put forward (GASP!) effort to find historical information besides click...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Yep, the US has trounced ex-US for the last 30 years. Excluding the massive Japanese bubble, it was probably a wash before that in the 70's/80's - a very different time globally from today. According to Peter Bernstein in Against the Gods, from 1970-1993 EAFE stocks returned 14.3% vs the S&P's 11.7...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 11028

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Yep, the US has trounced ex-US for the last 30 years. Excluding the massive Japanese bubble, it was probably a wash before that in the 70's/80's - a very different time globally from today. According to Peter Bernstein in Against the Gods, from 1970-1993 EAFE stocks returned 14.3% vs the S&P's 11.7...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?
Replies: 23
Views: 2013

Re: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?

pasadena wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:56 pm But then, QQQ is slightly ahead if you look at the last 10 years, and even more since 2004 (start of available data). We know nothing :)
Yea, I noticed that. But he should chase the most recent winner. 10 years is old.
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?
Replies: 23
Views: 2013

Re: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?

Since you are chasing performance, I would chase VGT. They've both beaten US total stock market, but VGT has outperformed QQQ by about 4% CAGR over the last 5 years: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2015&firstMonth=8&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendar...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Energy Sector ETF - Hold or Sell?
Replies: 19
Views: 1014

Re: Energy Sector ETF - Hold or Sell?

I have a 10% holding in global energy companies (ETF FILL), and I bought more a few months ago to rebalance. Still waiting, and plan to continue waiting, it's not a huge portion but 10% is enough to make some difference. If I had a 2% stake I'd probably be increasing it right now. If you need a TLH ...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15917

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

asif408 made an interesting point regarding ex-US in the late 80's. He points the finger at Japan for the poor performance since then, since it dominated the index, and began at nosebleed valuations; by my read, Japan's CAPE in 1986 was about 60 or 70. Meanwhile, the US that year had a CAPE startin...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15917

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Using Portfolio Visualizer, since 1986 ex-us equity has under-performed US equity by 3.74% per year. That's 34 years. $10,000 in 1986 would now be $322,348 for US and $281,570 for ex-US. So, how many years would ex-US equity now need to out-perform US equity just to break even, and if that happens,...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15917

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

I guess it doesn't matter though, because I'll be dead and my kids will certainly have spend their inheritance by then. :wink: True, most big inheritances get blown anyway within a generation or two, so your kids and grandkids will probably be more concerned with spending the money than our esoteri...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15917

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Serious question. When international does outperform U.S., on average, how much is it by? From 2002-2007, it was 8% for developed markets and about 20% for emerging markets: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2002&firstMonth=3&endYear=2007&lastMonth=10...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15917

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Using Portfolio Visualizer, since 1986 ex-us equity has under-performed US equity by 3.74% per year. That's 34 years. $10,000 in 1986 would now be $322,348 for US and $281,570 for ex-US. So, how many years would ex-US equity now need to out-perform US equity just to break even, and if that happens,...
by asif408
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation-What have you learned about yourself?
Replies: 51
Views: 3599

Re: Asset Allocation-What have you learned about yourself?

I learned I underestimated my risk tolerance initially (which is a good thing; apparently more people overestimate their risk tolerance). I started out with 30-40% in bonds when I began really learning and handling my own investments about 7 years ago. I've gradually upped my stock allocation over t...
by asif408
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 7167

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

In the 20th century the US outperformed ex-US by 2%, according to the Dimson-Marsh data. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. It has actually outperformed for centuries. That's interesting. Can you call up a comparison of VTSMX vs VGTSX from, say, 1789 to present so we can visual...
by asif408
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 7167

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

According to portfolio visualizer, ex-US CAGR since 1986 is 6.8%. US CAGR since 1986 is 10.54% The magnitude of that difference is huge and makes me feel like there must be some way to strategically tilt to the US as a default but increase international allocation when certain conditions are met, a...
by asif408
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 4135

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Seems like there are lots of solutions, the best would seem to be to own more international developed and emerging market equities and small cap US equities. If you can't bring yourself to do that, you could own a total US stocks market index fund (it has about a 19% concentration in those stocks) o...
by asif408
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 7167

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Thanks, out of interest how did you come across that Barclays CAPE link? I wasn't aware of that resource. This is a great counterpoint to the US deserving uniquely high valuations. I believe the US should do so to an extent due to a mix of USD status, size of the economy, sector diversity and so on...
by asif408
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "international" equity as in the three-fund portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 2116

Re: "international" equity as in the three-fund portfolio

I don't think this more recent definition of "international" makes sense though. Developed markets are very different from emerging market in almost all aspects, like market efficiency and risk level, and treating them as one asset class in portfolio construction doesn't simply make sense to me. In...
by asif408
Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 7167

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

I don't have the numbers to hand any more, but I recall that China for example, reached nosebleed CAPE numbers in 2006/07 alongside other BRIC superstars of the 2000s. I do know that folk like Meb Faber and Laurence Hamtil are on opposite sides of that debate. Here were the maximum CAPE ratios of s...
by asif408
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7090

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

I own long bonds but not primarily as a deflation hedge. Primarily they are to offset equity risk. Yes, rates will more likely go up than down from this point, but so what? When equities crash, rates will come back down for sure. Remember that the last several stock market crashes were deflationary...
by asif408
Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7090

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

If you are young and hold a lot of stocks, it doesn't make a dramatic difference whether you choose long or short bonds, your stock choices will likely have a greater effect on your final portfolio balance. The bigger issue is to ask yourself why you hold bonds. if you are looking for the best defla...
by asif408
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VITAX curious [Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund]
Replies: 68
Views: 2362

Re: VITAX curious

The whole point of diversification is that we cannot know "future reality." Simply put, in investing in VITAX, I'd be taking a greater risk than if I bought more VTSAX. I'm trying to get a grip on the nature of that risk (which I recognize is not insignificant). It's not that hard to grasp. You are...
by asif408
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Growth vs Everything Else
Replies: 11
Views: 1075

Re: US Large Growth vs Everything Else

You call those good predictions? Acc. to your reference, 2000-2009, these were the actual annualized returns and how far off his annualized predictions were: Precious metals equities 18.57%. He was off by at least 450% and at most 1857% Large US stocks- not included in your reference, but Total US ...
by asif408
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VITAX curious [Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund]
Replies: 68
Views: 2362

Re: VITAX curious

...but I think I'm willing to assume the risk that goes along with betting that this sector will play an ever-greater role in our lives in the future. You're proposal is just overweighting the current largest sector in the US stock market. That's concentration, not diversification. As other have sa...
by asif408
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Growth vs Everything Else
Replies: 11
Views: 1075

Re: US Large Growth vs Everything Else

I wish it was easy to go back and look at all the expert predictions made in 2010 as to how well the market, or various sectors, or companies, would fare in 2020. My "prediction" *tongue in cheek* is that the predictions would seem laughable. You would just have to conclude that the ones that came ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International ETF vs Mutual Fund Discussion/Help
Replies: 20
Views: 867

Re: International ETF vs Mutual Fund Discussion/Help

The US makes up over 1/3 of the stock market, so it is easier to bet on I also know less about other countries and have less belief in some. Some bias there and some valid bias (look at what China does with their numbers). Also the political instability of some countries or some countries that are ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International ETF vs Mutual Fund Discussion/Help
Replies: 20
Views: 867

Re: International ETF vs Mutual Fund Discussion/Help

I do mostly agree with the Bogleheads philosophy of total market for the US, b/c they are efficient, some bias, and they are a country with political stability. But when it comes to International and Emerging, not so sure if I want the total market or even passive. Why is that? Because of the recen...
by asif408
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worth a read - GMOs latest quarterly letter
Replies: 4
Views: 684

Re: Worth a read - GMOs latest quarterly letter

I think the main concern with their idea of replacing some US govt bonds with junk bonds and EM debt is if there is a crisis like the 1998 EM debt crisis. In that instance, EM bonds fell as much as EM stocks and more than US stocks (US junk bonds held up ok). EM bonds did do well through the 2000-20...
by asif408
Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to continue being heavy-weight in US equities?
Replies: 18
Views: 1796

Re: Does it make sense to continue being heavy-weight in US equities?

...In particular, international developed and emerging market value stocks look much more attractive than US growth stocks, but good luck finding a poster besides me who think that is the case and is acting on that by overweighting those areas heavily. I continue to wait patiently with my 85% non-U...
by asif408
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to continue being heavy-weight in US equities?
Replies: 18
Views: 1796

Re: Does it make sense to continue being heavy-weight in US equities?

I think it makes sense not to continue being heavy-weight US equities, but I've thought that for a few years now and am still waiting to be proven right. You can be sure the majority of posters here will not encourage you to overweight international equities relative to global market cap, and it's a...
by asif408
Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overweight in International?
Replies: 23
Views: 1881

Re: Overweight in International?

"They" have been saying that since the 70's and "they" have still been wrong so far. This is a funny statement because 3 of the last 5 decades international has outperformed the US (1970s, 1980s, & 2000s), so "they" have been right more often than not. OP, personally I think your US international a...
by asif408
Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: shorting gold (blasphemy, I know)
Replies: 19
Views: 1224

Re: shorting gold (blasphemy, I know)

Well, if I had to short something, gold would probably be it, just because it tends to perform poorly for long periods of time, and most of it's good performance comes in bursts, so the odds you might pick the right time to short it are higher than something like say, Tesla, or the general stock mar...
by asif408
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I fear inflation, should I overweight international stocks/gold?
Replies: 32
Views: 2694

Re: If I fear inflation, should I overweight international stocks/gold?

OP, FWIW, if you fear inflation, this a pretty good read of Bill Bernstein's view: https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2020/03/04/inflation-deflation-confiscation-devastation-the-four-risk-horsemen/#2988a81f3dac Here are the key paragraphs: ....Inflation, though high in probability, has a lower co...
by asif408
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I fear inflation, should I overweight international stocks/gold?
Replies: 32
Views: 2694

Re: If I fear inflation, should I overweight international stocks/gold?

Had not realized any of that. Thank you! Good to know! Japan was an exception in many ways. At least now their forward looking expected returns don't look dramatically different from the rest of the developed world. The same could not be said in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, or early 2010s (with the exc...
by asif408
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I fear inflation, should I overweight international stocks/gold?
Replies: 32
Views: 2694

Re: If I fear inflation, should I overweight international stocks/gold?

I find it not only interesting, but outright amusing that the country the market-cap international index leans into is Japan--its the top holding! If the winning formula is to pick that which has performed best over the relatively recent past, seems perhaps unfortunate that the passive index has ch...
by asif408
Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 8172

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

From what I can tell, SCV investing has been pretty good for the last 15 years up until 2017, that's when its performance with large cap stocks has really diverged. International developed and emerging market investors have had a much rougher decade and a half than US SCV tilters, particularly sinc...