Search found 2190 matches

by asif408
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

It literally takes about 5 minutes of economics class to figure out why historical asset out-performance will not predict future out-performance. Asset prices already assume that American earnings growth will be stronger than ex-US earnings growth. For perpetual out-performance, American earnings g...
by asif408
Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 46
Views: 4496

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

My portfolio is about 60% EM Fundamental index (value play), 12% Global Silver Miners, 12% Global Oil Producers, and the remainder in a Total International Stock Market Index. So no US stocks or bond indexes in my portfolio. For the last few years I've had this and lagged a US only portfolio, but I ...
by asif408
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Or maybe the old adage "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it" applies. Another way to put that is that when someone has a strong emotional tie to or is heavily emotionally invested in a country, sector, industry, etc. OP appears ...
by asif408
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

The question isn't whether these companies or the U.S. tech sector will continue to dominate or even increase their dominance, but rather whether this will outpace the market's expectations. +1, couldn't have said it better myself. I think OP and many other look at these things from an absolute per...
by asif408
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

But on the other hand, SCV appears to me to have been a far better diversifying asset in portfolios otherwise dominated by U.S. TSM than has ex-U.S. stock, for instance. For instance, while ex-U.S. outperformed U.S. TSM somewhat from 2000-2009, SCV blew both of them out of the water. A better argum...
by asif408
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

My point was that just because the current high flyers appear to be indomitable does not mean that their forward performance will continue as it has for the last decade. U.S. large-cap growth will continue to outperform until it doesn't. Ex-U.S. will continue to underperform until it doesn't. But t...
by asif408
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Railroads were the largest sector in the late 1800s early 1900s. You can find many anecdotes through newspaper articles and behavior that indicate many thought "what could threaten railroads?" until the automobile and airplane came along. Notice that these are all cases of dominant technology repla...
by asif408
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Laurizas wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:13 am
asif408 wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:06 am There was even a poll in the late 2000s (when polls were still allowed here).
Why polls are not allowed anymore?
Here is the explanation: viewtopic.php?t=164952
by asif408
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

To me, the key question remains "what could threaten the US dominance in technology", since that dominance is the reason for its recent and future outperformance. If you're asking yourself this question, my suggestion is to read history and ask yourself "Did a majority of people have a similar view...
by asif408
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Ex-U.S. Like getting punched in the face every day for the past decade. No thank you. I’ve allocated <3% of my NW to ex-U.S. over this time period and have no regrets. The US experienced the exact same thing from March 2000- Febuary 2013 (almost a 13 year period of flat return). I was not a boglehe...
by asif408
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: There's no M in FAANG!

EDIT: To be specific, since the peak of the dotcom bubble in March 2000, Microsoft stock has more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500 on a cumulative return basis. One notable fact not mentioned is that all of that outperformance has come in the last 2 years. It trailed from 2000 until mid-...
by asif408
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Does anyone have any data or graph on US-excluding-FAANG vs International? Or maybe US vs International with equal sector weights? It just seems that either FAANG or tech in general outperformed, but did the other industries also outperform this last 10 years? Can't speak for ex-FAANG or equal weig...
by asif408
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

If I hold US only, I could be exposed to many US specific risks (geopolitical, monetary, etc) without protection. If the US suffers a significant downturn, most of these ex-US companies VTIAX holds will also lose much value. In fact, VTSAX and VTIAX are largely moving in tandem from what I've seen,...
by asif408
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Replies: 32
Views: 3180

Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Can you give a few specific examples or the one you are particularly interested in ?
by asif408
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19597

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Has International ever outperformed U.S. to the massive extent that U.S. has outperformed International over the last 10 years? I know that International has outperformed U.S. for periods of time, but my understanding is that the outperformance has been modest at best. If that's the case, why bothe...
by asif408
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1815

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

Seems reasonable. The US has been one of the best performing stock markets historically, but that's the past. Look around, we weren't always the best in the past for multi decade periods. Japan's stock market beat ours, for instance, for 4 straight decades from 1950 to 1990 (I imagine their are othe...
by asif408
Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO: EM Value returns will exceed US large cap, 15% for 7 consecutive years
Replies: 20
Views: 1678

Re: GMO: EM Value returns will exceed US large cap, 15% for 7 consecutive years

Any particular reason they provide a value variant for EM, but not for the other asset classes? Most of my portfolio is in small/value, but I hold very little EM. For the most part they tend to stick to the major asset classes when they put out their forecasts. Just my guess, but they usually only ...
by asif408
Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO: EM Value returns will exceed US large cap, 15% for 7 consecutive years
Replies: 20
Views: 1678

Re: GMO: EM Value returns will exceed US large cap, 15% for 7 consecutive years

FWIW GMO, AFAIK, has always predicted higher returns for EM than US stocks since they began providing forecasts (and in fact has predicted higher returns every year for ex-US developed stocks as well). So I wouldn't necessarily overweight EM or foreign developed stocks just because GMO predicts they...
by asif408
Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds
Replies: 173
Views: 17715

Re: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds

So what will it look like? Do you believe an investment made today in VBTLX (with reinvested dividends) will lose value over the next decade? Will it do worse than cash? It doesn't have to be exact; just a general prediction. Hard to say other than the return will highly likely be close to the curr...
by asif408
Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 16162

Re: Ditching International

I believe that the expected return for shareholders of Hertz common stock approaches $0. Is this incorrect? I think so. I imagine most of the shareholders of Hertz believe the expected returns is greater than 0, otherwise why would they hold it? If you can explain why anyone would own a stock with ...
by asif408
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds
Replies: 173
Views: 17715

Re: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds

So what will it look like? Do you believe an investment made today in VBTLX (with reinvested dividends) will lose value over the next decade? Will it do worse than cash? It doesn't have to be exact; just a general prediction. Hard to say other than the return will highly likely be close to the curr...
by asif408
Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 16162

Re: Ditching International

Are you seriously going to tell me that Hertz isn’t more risky and has a lower expected return than Avis? Oh but it’s bankrupt doesn’t support your position that high risk = high expected returns. I am seriously going to tell you that. Seriously, Hertz is higher risk and should have a higher expect...
by asif408
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 16162

Re: Ditching International

Would you like to assert that IT doesn’t have lower risk and higher expected returns than energy? The US market, thus far, has not seen things like the Nikkei bubble and crash, nor the EU debt where several countries have been unable to pay or refinance national debt without IMF (or ECB) interventi...
by asif408
Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?
Replies: 71
Views: 5406

Re: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?

I forgot to mention Vanguard's own paper on this. Their most recent paper is Global equity investing: The benefits of diversification and sizing your allocation and it says this--the boldfacing and the division into two parts is mine: ...although no one answer fits all investors, global market- cap...
by asif408
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Figuring out your Asset Allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 2237

Re: Figuring out your Asset Allocation

How have you gone about determining your AA? I started with my emotional makeup and erred on the conservative side. So I started 70/30 stocks bonds, with about a 70/30 split US/Int'l. Once I experienced a few years of corrections in the US and bear markets internationally, I adjusted up to 100/0 st...
by asif408
Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?
Replies: 71
Views: 5406

Re: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?

OP, Just FYI, here's a post started in 2007 (after a period of international outperformance) that ended just a few years ago (after a period of US outperformance): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=571 I encourage you to read through the responses, as it gives a good perspective ...
by asif408
Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 16162

Re: Ditching International

I'm not trying to gang up on the OP here, but the sad fact is this thread wouldn't exist if the last five years had turned out to be one of the many periods in which international outperformed. If things happened to go one way rather than another, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Or last 10...
by asif408
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 16162

Re: Ditching International

I'm not trying to gang up on the OP here, but the sad fact is this thread wouldn't exist if the last five years had turned out to be one of the many periods in which international outperformed. If things happened to go one way rather than another, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Or last 10...
by asif408
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?
Replies: 71
Views: 5406

Re: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?

I guess my question is, why are places like Vanguard and target date funds recommending 40% international? At the same time there is an active thread here about dropping international all together. I want to make sure I make an informed decision about my asset allocation so I figured I’d get some m...
by asif408
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could a fall in the dollar hurt your plan?
Replies: 32
Views: 1552

Re: Could a fall in the dollar hurt your plan?

Haven't you heard? According to US only investors, the dollar never falls, it's the world's reserve currency, and what about American exceptionalism? Prominent economist? Humph, spare us the economic lessons about things like purchasing power parity, we all know economists are worse than weathermen ...
by asif408
Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11853

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

Wow--lots of home country bias and inner rage on this forum. International stocks exist. Sometimes the returns are high; sometimes they are low. Any questions? Bill Bernstein's bubble criteria: (1) Everyone around you is talking about stocks (or real estate or whatever the fad asset of the day is)....
by asif408
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 16162

Re: Ditching International

It’s pretty incredible that people still dismiss International despite periods of time International has outperformed, as well as the changing global landscape China/Asia are laying down infrastructure with manufacturing already in place to eventually became the world’s #1 economy ... but hey, US h...
by asif408
Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 13105

Re: Investing in International Stocks

2. In the past 20-30 years, globalization has made world economies more tightly linked. This is especially true for developed and up-and-coming countries. The return pattern in the 80s or 90s is not likely to repeat unless the world walks backward to those time where people and information were mor...
by asif408
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16511

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

Predicting short term moves in the stock market is pretty much impossible to do right on a consistent basis, and a lot of people much smarter and who do this for a living get paid a lot to predict short term movements, so I don't think you or I can compete with them. The stock market is somewhat pre...
by asif408
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Index Investing: Does inclusion of state-owned enterprises or their equivalent limit gains in current circ's?
Replies: 2
Views: 159

Re: Int'l Index Investing: Does inclusion of state-owned enterprises or their equivalent limit gains in current circ's?

I think that concern is greatest in emerging markets, and if it bothers you there are emerging market funds that exclude state owned enterprises, you could simply owned a developed market ex-US fund and and ex-state owned enterprises (SOE) emerging markets fund. Personally, I don't think most intern...
by asif408
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 13105

Re: Investing in International Stocks

In other words, in May-1996, Japan would have had to be much lower valuation than the U.S. to have a similar expectation. But instead of having a lower valuation, it had much higher valuation than the U.S. No wonder the Japan's return as been so abysmal. That's my idea for today regarding Japan val...
by asif408
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on International Index Funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2559

Re: Thoughts on International Index Funds

Just for some perspective, OP, foreign stocks represent by the EAFE index, outperformed US stocks by 3% CAGR between 1970 and 1994, another 25 year period before the one you cited. In fact, since 1970 foreign stocks have outperfomed US stocks in 3 of those 5 decades. So what is more likely to occur,...
by asif408
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 13105

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Time to look at the sick man of the Pacific. Japan is the biggest component of Vanguard Pacific at 60.7%. Japan is also 23.1% of Developed Markets Index (VTMGX), 17.6% of Total International (VTIAX) and 7.5% of Total World (VTWAX) Japan ETF (EWJ) I got the distribution data straight from iShares fo...
by asif408
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?
Replies: 32
Views: 2252

Re: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?

In my opinion, the difference between US and international is lost in the noise and has been since the inception of the first international stock index, MSCI EAFE. Of course many such differences are. The only reason people don't realize it is that people don't want to come to grips with just how b...
by asif408
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?
Replies: 32
Views: 2252

Re: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?

Here's an example for a real life accumulator: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1996&firstMonth=3&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=1000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=1000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualP...
by asif408
Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VGLT: long term treasury
Replies: 13
Views: 1003

Re: VGLT: long term treasury

That fund fell over 20% between 2009-2010 as well as between 2012-2013 (stocks were up over 40% during both periods), about 15% in 2015 (stocks were up 10% over that time), and another 20% in 2017 & 2018 (stocks were up 40% over that time), so you should expect it to do poorly as a general rule when...
by asif408
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Why don't all of you performance chasers and timers start nitpicking about sectors within the Total Stock Market index? You'll be fine with a tech sector index fund right? It's going to outperform infinity and beyond! Never fear, there are already several posts like these that are way ahead of you:...
by asif408
Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Hustlinghustling wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:43 am thanks. I was actually asking about the stock market to zero part
since its only been around since 90s and hasnt gone to 0. but I guess this is referring to Qing dynasty era ?
Interesting. I was thinking about the Ming & Qing dynasties.
by asif408
Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

China was also among the wealthiest civilizations for most of recorded human history, yet its stock markets went to 0 multiple times prior to their current incarnation. Curious, when are you referring to here? I believe Hustlinghustling is referring to the 1200s through 1600s, when China was one of...
by asif408
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29336

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

If someone smarter than me can please clarify what he's saying, I lose his logic somewhere in here: Lower interest rates = Lower cost of capital = Lower equity returns Not sure if I'm smarter, but my best guess is that he is saying, on average, the equity risk premium over bonds has been pretty con...
by asif408
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Indeed, from 2001-2007, EM zoomed like a rocket. But since then, it's literally gone nowhere for U.S. investors. Since 2008, real returns from EM for U.S. investors have been -1.86%, and EM has been significantly more volatile than even gold. Huge volatility and negative returns for 12+ years while...
by asif408
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

We just saw a 36% drop from ATHs in March/April, and it wasn't international that rebounded the strongest despite their more reasonable PE. People poured into quality, which is the US market. I wouldn't suggest using a 2-3 month period and extrapolating anything meaningful from that. By your measur...
by asif408
Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

At 40%, you are staking a significant portion on ex-US returns. In terms of evidence, decades of history combined with the lack of evidence of change for the better in Europe and Japan is pretty powerful. If you think there's more than a remote chance of Europe and Japan becoming an engine of earni...
by asif408
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Less-than-transparent financial systems and unstable governments are perfectly legitimate things to consider when investing your money. In fact, the concerns I expressed above are two of the precise reasons Jack Bogle advised against international investing. It's a legitimate argument, but it's als...
by asif408
Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16621

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

We have to be careful here. I didn't say that we can expect the future to look like the last 30 years. I'm saying that the last 30 years are probably a better indicator of the future than prior periods. The further back we go in the past, the less similar the current environment is to it. The world...