Search found 2185 matches

by asif408
Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?
Replies: 58
Views: 2663

Re: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?

Mine would be exactly the same. I don't quite follow the logic here that seems to see some importance in investing more in your country of residence. Of course, its easier to justify for the majority of US based investors because of recent performance. To me, valuations and broad diversification amo...
by asif408
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.
Replies: 87
Views: 4639

Re: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.

I don't hear people talking about selling their gold, i only hear about them buying it....because it's gone up. that's not investing. Maybe those people that are selling aren't talking about it because they need the greater fools to buy it and if they start talking about selling they won't be able ...
by asif408
Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 99
Views: 20289

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

How about an etf by Avantis called AVDV? This company seems to be a spin off from former DFA employees. AVDV is international non-US small cap value. MER seems reasonable. Probably a reasonable choice. It doesn't have a long track record, but it does somewhat track the DFA international value fund ...
by asif408
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 63
Views: 5882

Re: PSA: gold

000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:26 pm It's amazing how vocal the 100% US crowd has become here, even including prominent members.
It's as bad as I've seen it in my 6 years here.
by asif408
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 63
Views: 5882

Re: PSA: gold

My PME position has gotten a little too big in recent weeks, so I did some rebalancing, and like OP I also noticed some pro-gold posts coming out recently. I hold a silver miners position that has gone up almost 200% since March, while nothing else I own is up even 50% since that time. Tossed some o...
by asif408
Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which financial intrument(s) are best for shorting the dollar?
Replies: 20
Views: 1525

Re: Which financial intrument(s) are best for shorting the dollar?

Thanks! One last thing. You seem to imply that, although both will do well, emerging markets will do better than developed ex-US stocks if the USD falls. Why is that? Primarily because a number of of the emerging market currencies relative to the US dollar are at or near multi decade lows. In the d...
by asif408
Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which financial intrument(s) are best for shorting the dollar?
Replies: 20
Views: 1525

Re: Which financial intrument(s) are best for shorting the dollar?

to get a rough idea, when you say you load up on emerging markets stocks, what percentage of your allocation to stocks is in emerging markets roughly? I have about 55-60% in EM, tilted to value. Mine is an extreme position, and I have some specific reasons for doing this that might not be applicabl...
by asif408
Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which financial intrument(s) are best for shorting the dollar?
Replies: 20
Views: 1525

Re: Which financial intrument(s) are best for shorting the dollar?

if the dollar weakens, gold should perform well. +1,000. Silver too. KlangFool KF can elaborate on why silver would rally on a weak dollar? Thanks. Dave Dave55, When you print a few trillions out of the air, eventually, you will have inflation and/or hyperinflation. Then, the only thing can maintai...
by asif408
Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7668

Re: Value rebound soon?

Here is the data that confirms what i said yesterday, that SCV indices outperformed others in year 2008. There was a bigger spread also in 2000-2002. So that's why I'm asking, why isn't SCV outperforming in this year's downturn? Should be obvious, because this pandemic is affecting small companies ...
by asif408
Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)
Replies: 95
Views: 4818

Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

The start of this period was the start of the ASWX ETF. Of course that period just happened to be 0% growth, but yes, it's still a form of cherry-picking. The decade previous was a lost decade for US stocks. (And I know there's no predicting what the 2020s will bring.) Since you admit you cherry pi...
by asif408
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/07/20/the-remarkable-accuracy-of-cape-as-a-predictor-of-returns-1 Michael Finke, PhD is a professor of wealth management at The American College Of Financial Services. CAPE gets criticized a lot as a predictor of future returns, but despite its pote...
by asif408
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

A question for you. Do you believe the conclusion of this paper that CAPE has a r^2 predictive power of close to .9? If I believed that to be the case, I would also use it to drive my investing decisions. No, but I don't think that's the conclusion of the paper. The finding is that on average it wa...
by asif408
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

Considering that all the international stock funds I'd consider buying are unhedged, and since I have zero intention of living outside the US, the question I tend to ask myself for international stock investing: why might I want to take on additional currency risk? The dollar's position in the worl...
by asif408
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

Do you also weight individual companies by valuation? If not, why not? No, because I'm not smart enough or want to spend the time to evaluate individual companies, or take on individual company risk. I would rather be market weight ( or close to it), than think I know better. But by overweighting U...
by asif408
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

You are right in that we are both adjusting. But, my adjustments are muted, and based on actual results. You are making bigger bets based on predictions. That is certainly a different approach. If you get correctly, your pay off will be better. I am OK only making small changes based on what actual...
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

Yes. 33% of my equity allocation is to international. Again, I let rebalancing to target AA handle adjustments, rather than using valuation metrics. International has been "undervalued" relative to US for a long time. Who knows when that will change. I want some exposure to international for when i...
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

CAPE ratio is not currently showing a wildly overvalued US market, just somewhat above average That is only true if you keep adapting your model to fit new data. CAPE is sitting at something around 30. That would have been quite high based on when Shiller first data mined the metric (average around...
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

So assuming you believe CAPE is useful (which it sounds like), how do you change your investing plan based on that? Average CAPE is around 16, except for a brief period in 2008/2009, it has been above 20, indicating relatively "high" valuation. Have you been out of the market all that time? I use i...
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

FIREchief wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:12 pm
asif408 wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:02 pm Or are valuations meaningless and you just invest no matter what?
That's what I always did! 8-) 100% equities for last 25 years of accumulation. Worked for me..... :mrgreen:
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while!
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

According to a Vanguard study, We confirm that valuation metrics such as price/earnings ratios, or P/Es, have had an inverse or mean-reverting relationship with future stock market returns, although it has only been meaningful at long horizons and, even then, P/E ratios have “explained” only about ...
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

CAPE ratio is not currently showing a wildly overvalued US market, just somewhat above average That is only true if you keep adapting your model to fit new data. CAPE is sitting at something around 30. That would have been quite high based on when Shiller first data mined the metric (average around...
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 4147

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

I don't think CAPE is perfect, but it appears to be useful and at a minimum superior to forward P/E, which has something of a cult following around here for reasons unknown to me. Forward P/E has a particularly poor record at market tops and bottoms, which it might actually be useful, even if it has...
by asif408
Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"
Replies: 164
Views: 8596

Re: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"

I don't have a problem with people owning some gold, but this is a huge overstatement of gold's inflation-adjusted price stability. How long did it take a gold buyer in 1980 to break even with inflation? If you bought gold in 1980 you were an idiot (or in 2010-2011). Easy to say in retrospect. Are ...
by asif408
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me not to tilt away from large caps
Replies: 13
Views: 1021

Re: Convince me not to tilt away from large caps

Glad I don't have your problem. I just invest 90% in international value stocks and call it a day, no worries about bubblicious holdings there.
by asif408
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily
Replies: 135
Views: 11442

Re: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily

OP, You've got 25-30 years to invest, you should only care about the next 6 months performance if you're going to be spending that money in the next 6 months. And if you're concerned about US equities, many other countries are handling the virus better whose stock markets also have lower valuations....
by asif408
Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: transition to brokerage accnt
Replies: 9
Views: 546

Re: transition to brokerage accnt

Sorry, but I'm asked "where is the money coming from" (or something similar) and there are two choices, Roth or traditional. I have BOTH types of funds in my account, but I'm not allowed to select both, only one. This is not a problem, but as I said before, when my wife did the transition yesterday...
by asif408
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes article: "This 5-Fund Portfolio Pays A Monthly 8.9% Dividend"
Replies: 25
Views: 3713

Re: Forbes article: "This 5-Fund Portfolio Pays A Monthly 8.9% Dividend"

I guess there will always be old people writing articles peddling high dividends to other old people. Maybe once the younger generation gets old the obsession with dividends will disappear and the focus will be on total return, but apparently old habits die hard. Lots of Russian companies paying 10%...
by asif408
Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I thought SLV & Gold Mining stocks are a Safety Hedge??
Replies: 28
Views: 1699

Re: I thought SLV & Gold Mining stocks are a Safety Hedge??

Ok ... OP checking back in after watching this topic "evolve". Lots' of varying opinions expressed without a common opinion/theory. Now ... Gold has continued it's soar and it now appears the Mining Stocks are following fast . Your thought/theories? Mine: This Black Swan has cost the World Governme...
by asif408
Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 25
Views: 1700

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

I overweight them dramatically (60% of my overall portfolio), but wouldn't necessarily recommend that much overweight to most people. I would start with the market cap (10% of a global portfolio, about 20% of international) and then decide if you want to change from that. Historically, emerging mark...
by asif408
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: hyper inflation hedges
Replies: 54
Views: 2900

Re: hyper inflation hedges

Since energy rises and falls with demand, and hyperinflation will destroy demand, it seems like energy stocks will do poorly. Am I missing something there? Stocks in general ride on the consumer economy, flattened in a crash. I get it that there is no way to ride it out whole, but it's difficult to...
by asif408
Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: hyper inflation hedges
Replies: 54
Views: 2900

Re: hyper inflation hedges

Precious metals have been a loser's bet - I recall my family getting into gold in 1978-9, thereby ruining their savings when it went down by over half in the next few years. And you can't get change for a bullion coin if you have to use it! Based on this logic, I could pick any sector or market nea...
by asif408
Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 6192

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

So Japanese stocks beat US stocks by 9% CAGR for 4 straight decades and made up 40% of the international index by the late 1980s. As far as I can tell the US has not beaten almost any stock market in the world for 4 straight decades. So it shouldn't surprise anyone looking back to the 1990s that US...
by asif408
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5955

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

Emotions are the investor's worst enemy. Whatever you feels about REITs, I'd follow your band and rebalance. You added REITs at some point because you thought they would be of some benefit. You limit the benefits of diversficiation without rebalancing. REITs have diversified greatly, since mid-2016 ...
by asif408
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 6192

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Regardless of the merits of international equities one should not abandon a idea because it has poor past performance. The key word is past performance. Japan had impressive returns before going belly up in 1980s that I would be tempted if I lived there at the time to not even have any Ex-Japan inv...
by asif408
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing Education
Replies: 7
Views: 640

Re: International Investing Education

Here's some perspective, OP. From 1970 through 2007, your returns would have been better if you owned no US stocks, according to our Bogleheads wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/3/38/US-International-Emerging.png. Does that mean the last decade is just an anomaly? In 3 of the five past decad...
by asif408
Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 6192

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

An Economist article entitled "Should investors diversify away from America?" comes to this surprising conclusion: Those seeking the ideal balance of risk and reward should prefer to own shares of firms in proportion to their importance to the world economy. But ordinary investors should also like ...
by asif408
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Increase Small Cap Allocation while working for FAANG?
Replies: 8
Views: 736

Re: Increase Small Cap Allocation while working for FAANG?

I like the idea, but I think you can do it better than you are proposing. The US small cap fund has about the same percentage in tech stocks as the US Total Market fund (20% vs 22%), so I don't think that really protects you from a tech downturn. The other problem I see is that it appears your propo...
by asif408
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2488

Re: Changed AA

I see the dollar on the decline due to all the money printing and QE. Gold holds its value and protects against currency devaluations. I felt safer holding a small portion in Gold. Odd for someone who believes so strongly in the dollar declining that you own no foreign stocks. They will almost cert...
by asif408
Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19586

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

For those Vanguard investors who have substantial international exposure, what funds are you holding? VTIAX? VTWAX? Something else? And are you just in international equities or do you have an International bond exposure as well? I'm over 90% international. Most of my holdings are in emerging marke...
by asif408
Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I thought SLV & Gold Mining stocks are a Safety Hedge??
Replies: 28
Views: 1699

Re: I thought SLV & Gold Mining stocks are a Safety Hedge??

Ok ... OP checking back in after watching this topic "evolve". Lots' of varying opinions expressed without a common opinion/theory. Now ... Gold has continued it's soar and it now appears the Mining Stocks are following fast . Your thought/theories? Mine: This Black Swan has cost the World Governme...
by asif408
Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 46
Views: 4484

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

My portfolio is about 60% EM Fundamental index (value play), 12% Global Silver Miners, 12% Global Oil Producers, and the remainder in a Total International Stock Market Index. So no US stocks or bond indexes in my portfolio. For the last few years I've had this and lagged a US only portfolio, but I...
by asif408
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 46
Views: 4484

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

My portfolio is about 60% EM Fundamental index (value play), 12% Global Silver Miners, 12% Global Oil Producers, and the remainder in a Total International Stock Market Index. So no US stocks or bond indexes in my portfolio. For the last few years I've had this and lagged a US only portfolio, but I...
by asif408
Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 120
Views: 21208

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Vanguard appears to have nearly timed things perfectly with their transition (in the worst way possible). Yep. I remember at the time of the announcement I read the below article and it made me super paranoid that Vanguard would pull out at the exact wrong moment i.e. exactly what happened. Vanguar...
by asif408
Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 120
Views: 21208

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Just an update: the reinvented Vanguard fund has continued to underperform, especially during the most recent bear market: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/VGPMX#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJjYW5kbGVXaWR0aCI6MTkuMDUyNjMxNTc4OTQ3MzcsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3...
by asif408
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I crazy to do this? [Equity Allocation 50/50 TSM/NASDAQ]
Replies: 150
Views: 10275

Re: Am I crazy to do this?

This is a good read, gives an excellent perspective. Thanks for posting this instead of the usual “lol, you know nothing” commentary that people generally post here on any contrarian thread. OP, Understand that what you are proposing is not contrarian, but status quo. QQQ has been one of the best p...
by asif408
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19586

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

It literally takes about 5 minutes of economics class to figure out why historical asset out-performance will not predict future out-performance. Asset prices already assume that American earnings growth will be stronger than ex-US earnings growth. For perpetual out-performance, American earnings g...
by asif408
Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 46
Views: 4484

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

My portfolio is about 60% EM Fundamental index (value play), 12% Global Silver Miners, 12% Global Oil Producers, and the remainder in a Total International Stock Market Index. So no US stocks or bond indexes in my portfolio. For the last few years I've had this and lagged a US only portfolio, but I ...
by asif408
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19586

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Or maybe the old adage "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it" applies. Another way to put that is that when someone has a strong emotional tie to or is heavily emotionally invested in a country, sector, industry, etc. OP appears ...
by asif408
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19586

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

The question isn't whether these companies or the U.S. tech sector will continue to dominate or even increase their dominance, but rather whether this will outpace the market's expectations. +1, couldn't have said it better myself. I think OP and many other look at these things from an absolute per...
by asif408
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19586

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

But on the other hand, SCV appears to me to have been a far better diversifying asset in portfolios otherwise dominated by U.S. TSM than has ex-U.S. stock, for instance. For instance, while ex-U.S. outperformed U.S. TSM somewhat from 2000-2009, SCV blew both of them out of the water. A better argum...