Search found 8363 matches

by grok87
Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Private Client Group
Replies: 45
Views: 7604

Re: Fidelity Private Client Group

Agree with that. Also, only took a quick look, but it appears they won’t use index based funds if you have over $3 million under management. That’s annoying. I guess they figure there is more to be made in fees and charges off the larger accounts with the appearance of being more sophisticated in t...
by grok87
Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

Yet how does one pick the right duration which eliminates most interest rate risk that comes with say long-term, but has the benefits of deflation protection like long-term and will protect you in a crash like treasuries general did during 2008? What duration is the sweet spot, which will give you ...
by grok87
Sat Sep 29, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

But it still got whacked hard in 2008 like all other REITs. The comparison is interesting. My own view is that the financial crisis showed that QREARX (TIaa real estate annuity) had substantially less risk than the reits. It wasn't that they had different types of real estate or anything like that ...
by grok87
Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

But it still got whacked hard in 2008 like all other REITs. The comparison is interesting. My own view is that the financial crisis showed that QREARX (TIaa real estate annuity) had substantially less risk than the reits. It wasn't that they had different types of real estate or anything like that ...
by grok87
Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

just want to point out that i'm actually considering selling my reit index in tax-deferred accounts and moving to individual reits in taxable. It sounds crazy right? But... :shock: Oh my! Since you are a Swensen follower....is the allocation listed by this poster the same thing Swensen was suggesti...
by grok87
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 93
Views: 22480

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

I've updated the Yield to Maturity and Duration Calculator with WSJ TIPS Prices 9/28/2018 and the weighting effect of the 10-year auctions in July & September, and the 5-year auction in August. As shown in the table below, the weighted average yield of the bonds in the 1+ years broad index is 0.90%...
by grok87
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

just want to point out that i'm actually considering selling my reit index in tax-deferred accounts and moving to individual reits in taxable. It sounds crazy right? But... :shock: Oh my! Since you are a Swensen follower....is the allocation listed by this poster the same thing Swensen was suggesti...
by grok87
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

So I want to replicate The David Swensen Portfolio using ETFs. It is not uncommon for people to read Swensen and decide that is what they want to do. Before you do it, I'd recommend considering a couple of things. It's important to use the tax-advantaged space that you have available, starting with...
by grok87
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

So I want to replicate The David Swensen Portfolio using ETFs. My only question is with the treasury duration part. 30% U.S. Stocks Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Index ETF (VTI) 0.04% 15% Foreign developed stocks Vanguard Developed Market Index ETF (VEA) 0.07% 10% Emerging market stocks Vanguard Emergin...
by grok87
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: David Swensen Portfolio Critique.

So I want to replicate The David Swensen Portfolio using ETFs. My only question is with the treasury duration part. 30% U.S. Stocks Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Index ETF (VTI) 0.04% 15% Foreign developed stocks Vanguard Developed Market Index ETF (VEA) 0.07% 10% Emerging market stocks Vanguard Emergin...
by grok87
Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Private Client Group
Replies: 45
Views: 7604

Re: Fidelity Private Client Group

I’m a private client group member at fidelity. I just asked them for some free trades.

They said no.
by grok87
Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cashless warrant exercise - tax consequences?
Replies: 5
Views: 790

Re: Cashless warrant exercise - tax consequences?

I'm not sure if there's a real technical difference between a "warrant" and an "option", but my understanding is that in common parlance, warrants are longer term (years instead of months), and tend to be issued directly by the companies in question (yes, some "options" are, too...). The warrants I...
by grok87
Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

from the article "Also known as trend following,5 momentum involves buying assets whose prices have been recently rising and selling those whose prices have been recently falling. " feels like cross sectional momentum to me? I thought buying recent outperforming stocks (winners) and selling recent ...
by grok87
Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

The author makes a point that I had intuitively believed in the past, but he adds a lot of credence to it. In the footnotes “As the central limit theorem of statistics establishes, mixing together non-normal distributions moves the combined result toward a more normal-looking distribution; that is,...
by grok87
Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

Investing is not physics. no, but statistical physics can help: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Philippe_Bouchaud thanks. interesting article about his firm CFM https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/data-driven-quant-hedge-fund-firms-such-as-paris-based-cfm-make-a-comeback/2015/01/15/eb6163f2-...
by grok87
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security and Asset Allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 4948

Re: Social Security and Asset Allocation

It’s current law. I.e. if the projections hold, which seems the most likely outcome, then social security benefits will be cut by the 25% (thought it was 23% actually). Speculating on whether new legislation might be passed to prevent this from happening are of course against forum rules... Technic...
by grok87
Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

Long-short momentum was down -83% in 2009. Things don’t get much more fat tailed than that. Long-short momentum is the classic picking up nickels in front of a steamroller strategy. Maybe so, but shouldn’t look at one strategy in isolation. It’s about how the styles and risks mix in a portfolio. Da...
by grok87
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security and Asset Allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 4948

Re: Social Security and Asset Allocation

How close are you to taking social security? Have you factored in the 25% reduction expected in 2034 ? Is this official or just a guesstimate? It's an official guesstimate... It’s current law. I.e. if the projections hold, which seems the most likely outcome, then social security benefits will be c...
by grok87
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

The author makes a point that I had intuitively believed in the past, but he adds a lot of credence to it. In the footnotes “As the central limit theorem of statistics establishes, mixing together non-normal distributions moves the combined result toward a more normal-looking distribution; that is,...
by grok87
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

The author makes a point that I had intuitively believed in the past, but he adds a lot of credence to it. In the footnotes “As the central limit theorem of statistics establishes, mixing together non-normal distributions moves the combined result toward a more normal-looking distribution; that is,...
by grok87
Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6510

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

Thoughts? Critiques? Know any specific assets that are total treasury market choices other than GOVT? Should I just hold TIPS instead? Swensen argues for 50/50 treasuries/tips. as far as the total treasury approach, i think is fine. Are TIPS as anti-correlated to equities as regular Treasuries? I h...
by grok87
Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 104
Views: 11539

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

TUR trades above my cost basis now - I think a lot of this is currency related. (I know the Turkish Central bank is doing *some things* to defend/prop up the currency [finally]). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-24/lira-gains-on-hopes-u-s-pastor-held-in-turkey-will-be-released so bot...
by grok87
Tue Sep 25, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6510

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:48 pm



Thoughts? Critiques? Know any specific assets that are total treasury market choices other than GOVT? Should I just hold TIPS instead?
Swensen argues for 50/50 treasuries/tips.

as far as the total treasury approach, i think is fine.
by grok87
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 52
Views: 5872

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

I imagine a lot of money came into PenFed for that 3% CD offer. I wonder if they will have a good offer to retain those funds. Otherwise, I'll be transferring back to Fidelity where it came from. BTW, I discovered that my CDs at PenFed were set to auto-roll. You change the setting online to have it...
by grok87
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I allocate social security in retirement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: How do I allocate social security in retirement?

some discussion here as to how to integrate social security into your retirement income/investing framework

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245377

"the three-legged stool approach to retirement planning"
by grok87
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I allocate social security in retirement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: How do I allocate social security in retirement?

ryman554 wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:11 pm
As the poster above me said, SS is an income stream. Guaranteed. So count as income. Just like a pension.

Then figure out how much income you need from investments. sS is not an investment.
agree.
by grok87
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3759
Views: 1067923

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

the movie alpha.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/alpha_2018/

it was excellent. stunning cinematography and a gripping plot. it has subtitles though for those that care about that.

see it on the big screen if you can.
by grok87
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 25
Views: 2162

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

I think I get plenty of inflation protection from my portfolio: Stocks: As prices rise companies can charge more Bonds: I keep them short term so if rates rise I rapidly have new securities at higher yields and also use TIPS which are indexed to inflation Real Estate: Appreciates in value with infl...
by grok87
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1084

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Everything is survivorship bias. It is a really overused term in my opinion. Even the broad indexes exhibit survivorship bias. As far as I know, no one born in 1865 is still living. In the same way, a whole lot of companies that existed then don't exist today...
by grok87
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't trust Tripadvisor reviews
Replies: 64
Views: 6961

Re: Don't trust Tripadvisor reviews

I knew TripAdvisor was going bad once they started showing reviews that were not posted on TripAdvisor but were pulled in from hotels own websites. You can imagine how objective the latter must be. /s
by grok87
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1084

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Seems that's accounted for HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index: The HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index is a global, asset-weighted index comprised of over 1,500 single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net of all fee...
by grok87
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5354

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

Nate79 wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:27 pm
I guess they have to justify that 0.3%.
+1
by grok87
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6166

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I believe it is possible to discover valid statistical patterns in past data, and yet (the part people find really hard to believe) not be able to "employ" them for forecasting "with any assurance of consistent or large profits." yep article cites average momentum premium from 2010 to present at ar...
by grok87
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3333

Re: Pension alternatives

james22 wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:49 pm
grok87 wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 pm
here it is
Thanks, grok.
my pleasure.
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3333

Re: Pension alternatives

Almost there wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:05 pm
Thank you.

Almost there
my pleasure.
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3333

Re: Pension alternatives

James22 wrote: BAC-L and WFC-L See the 14th post for an annuity comparison: http://boards.fool.com/a-value-opportun ... sort=whole I clicked on above and the discussion was about stock. How do I find the annuity comparison? Almost there here it is The kicker? For $298k this annuity would generate $...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1328

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

TIAA is arguably the best available provider of immediate annuities, both "fixed" (Trad) and variable (TREA and the CREF VAs). i would be interested in hearing more about this. i'm not doubting you but how did you arrive at this conclusion? cheers, grok Well there's no question that older Trad (10 ...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage Assets Held In Street Name
Replies: 52
Views: 1502

Re: A Great Reason to Consider Vanguard's Brokerage Services

I assumed that if Fidelity went bankrupt that the Fidelity Funds I own would still be mine. I am mistaken? Whatever assets you hold at Fidelity are not yours now. They're held in street name. They're owned by Fidelity. They're just held in your favor. Fidelity can potentially run into various deals...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If you really like the CR-V, you should check out the [_____]
Replies: 89
Views: 9344

Re: If you really like the CR-V, you should check out the [_____]

Mazda CX-5, Toyota Rav4, Subaru Forrester, Hyundai Tucson & Santa Fe Sport (the Santa Fe Sport is smaller than the mid-size Santa Fe), Ford Escape, Nissan Rogue Toyota is offering 0% financing plus a cash incentive right now on the Rav4 if you're in the market for a new, as opposed to new to you, o...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1328

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

The Wizard wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:20 am

TIAA is arguably the best available provider of immediate annuities, both "fixed" (Trad) and variable (TREA and the CREF VAs).
i would be interested in hearing more about this. i'm not doubting you but how did you arrive at this conclusion?
cheers,
grok
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1328

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

In my opinion, the only reason to stay with TIAA is if you wish to stay in their proprietary funds such as Traditional Annuity and Real Estate, and/or if you plan to annuitize. Personally I am still in accumulation. Any funds that would otherwise be normally invested, I will most certainly roll ove...
by grok87
Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3333

Re: Pension alternatives

In the beginning, you say: If I put $200K in another 4 rental properties, I bet I can get at least $15K a year from the additional properties If you buy a fixed annuity, you will get about $1,000 a month ($12K a year) which is not that far off from $15K without all the associated expenses. Seriousl...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5130

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Investors looking at U.S. stocks at current valuation levels and bonds with rising interest rates are asking: "can I buy anything else?" Maybe commodities or old yellow? T-Bills might not be a bad idea either. Those are at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, so they are not close substitutes. The B...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5130

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

I have about 20% of my portfolio in funds invested in the stocks of commodities producers. I was persuaded by the writings of Bill Bernstein and GMO regarding commodities that if I was going to invest in commodities to avoid commodities futures and stick with commodity producing companies, as backw...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5349

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Jeff Albertson wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:54 pm
For a non-fringe view of what caused the housing crisis, see calculatedriskblog.com -
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017 ... using.html
Interesting
Here’s a direct link

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heres-what ... ng-crisis/
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5349

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

grok - I have looked at TIPS, REITS, and other "standard" asset classes. TIPS do not seem to do much (though we have not gone through an inflationary environment with the current products, and I am considering them), REITS have a nice CAGR kick but at big increase in volatility (and a bunch of taxe...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10170

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

Hope we all live long lives, but the Brookings Institution Hamilton Project calculated that if you've already made it to 65 (which is good, because nearly a fifth of Americans die before that age): Men have a 90 percent chance of living to 70, 62 percent of living to 80, and just 22 percent of livi...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10170

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

The following is copied from a post by an investor at the the Fidelity website. I assume I am not violating any rules by reproducing it here. The author makes an argument for taking social security benefits at age 66. It would be very interesting to hear what some of the sharp minds here have to sa...