Search found 8209 matches

by grok87
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?
Replies: 98
Views: 6369

Re: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?

I admit that a Ridgeline is hard to beat if on-road driving comfort is your main purchase criteria. It is basically a crossover SUV with a bed. It does lack some off-road capability, but not everyone needs that. can you elaborate on the off-road capabiity please? like what specifically can the ridg...
by grok87
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5807

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

Anxiety levels were rising in the 50's when "Rock and Roll" entered and young folks were doing wild things. In the 60's when 4 English fellows with funky haircuts stepped off the plane, Vietnam, and a funny herb odor filled the air. In the 70's when folks endured a decade of unrest from Nixon to Ca...
by grok87
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5807

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

It seems that grok has a 33/67 asset allocation (stocks/bonds). It's not that far off from a conservative investor's 40/60 allocation. So I'm not sure whether this difference would be extremely significant in the long run no matter what happens. The only thing I see is that, if a possible deflation...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent
Replies: 15
Views: 1957

Re: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent

What are your thoughts on levering a portfolio up to the equivalent of either a) the volatility of a 60/40 portfolio or b) the max drawdown of a 60/40 portfolio? Portfolio 1 is 60% stocks (VFINX), 40% bonds (VBMFX) Portfolio 2 is 50% stocks, 150% bonds --> same volatility as 60/40 Portfolio 3 is 75...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5807

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

Head down, plow ahead. The stock market always goes up. No guarantee for this. I think "keep calm and carry on" is great advice but calm should NOT be contingent on a certainty of a positive future. There isn't any such certainty. Stocks could go down for the next 50 years. Learn the skill of embra...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5807

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

Of course anxiety abounds. Much of what actually works in life is hidden and must be sought out. Conversely, virtually everything that does not work in life is in plain view. If you fail to be effective in actively parceling out your attention you will be over the cliff long before you realize you ...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5807

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

I agree that there's plenty to be concerned about. The pace of change seems to be accelerating and has been especially noticeable to me for the past 10 years or so. Some changes are good, some I find are profoundly good. Others I find are profoundly bad. The weather used to be something you could c...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman
Replies: 20
Views: 2789

Re: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman

I’m following an approach that is similar called the 3-legged stool.

Details here

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245377
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?
Replies: 98
Views: 6369

Re: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?

I admit that a Ridgeline is hard to beat if on-road driving comfort is your main purchase criteria. It is basically a crossover SUV with a bed. It does lack some off-road capability, but not everyone needs that. can you elaborate on the off-road capabiity please? like what specifically can the ridg...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5807

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

Head down, plow ahead. The stock market always goes up. But what if it doesn't? Past performance is not indicative of future results. What if we hit a multi-generation 'plateau', or worse, a historic bear market/recession? Food for thought :beer I think it is prudent to construct one’s retirement p...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up
Replies: 6
Views: 594

Re: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up

azanon wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:16 am
I noticed Vanguard Managed Payout Fund recently bumped their commodity allocation up from 5% to 7.5%, just FYI.
I saw that too. And They have reduced their us stock holdings
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5807

Keep calm and Boglehead on!

Keep calm and boglehead on! Just a reminder to all of us, and particularly to those who may be new to investing to “keep cAlm and boglehead on.” There is a lot of angst out there these days. According to this article in the last year or two Americans anxiety level has risen dramatically: https://www...
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?
Replies: 32
Views: 3953

Re: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?

pascalwager wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:21 pm
I heard that he's decided to stop writing about investing.
I hope that’s not true. The investing world needs Bill’s wisdom.
by grok87
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up
Replies: 6
Views: 594

Re: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up

> backwardation Whats that. Commodities are cheap right now. How cheap are you waiting for them to go? Is that price point not sufficient to trigger your buy? I see your point. there is this chart for example: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/Charts.pdf the black line in the chart shows a ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is really pushing their Personal Adviser Service
Replies: 65
Views: 6393

Re: Vanguard is really pushing their Personal Adviser Service

My sister rolled her IRA over to Vanguard in 2014, and they prepared an investment plan. Her account totals approximately $730,000 all of it in four stock and bond index funds. Her AA is 50% stocks/50% bonds. When she rolled it over they told that she could get a free portfolio checkup every year. ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?
Replies: 98
Views: 6369

Re: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?

I admit that a Ridgeline is hard to beat if on-road driving comfort is your main purchase criteria. It is basically a crossover SUV with a bed. It does lack some off-road capability, but not everyone needs that. can you elaborate on the off-road capabiity please? like what specifically can the ridg...
by grok87
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 68
Views: 8176

Re: Retirement bonds

Robert Powell writing about retirement bonds for financial security in TheStreet . The solution, according to Muralidhar, are bonds called Bonds for Financial Security (BFFS) or Standard-of-Living-indexed Forward-starting Income-only Securities or (SeLFIES). Government agencies, such as the U.S. Tr...
by grok87
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up
Replies: 6
Views: 594

P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up

Talks about the new lower cost no k-1 funds http://www.pionline.com/article/20180625/PRINT/180629951/some-see-commodity-based-funds-ready-to-heat-up “Beyond gold, GraniteShares also brought competitive pricing in May 2017 to funds looking to outperform Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs commodity indexes a...
by grok87
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?
Replies: 98
Views: 6369

Re: Buying a truck - Honda Ridgeline vs Chevrolet Silverado 1500?

I like my F150. But i’ve Always wanted a ridgeline...
by grok87
Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 46
Views: 4366

Re: MBA Options

Money, job opportunities, finding a more fulfilling career. This answer is pretty standard, and I cannot say 7 years ago I didn't have the same answer, so I am not going to personally skewer you over it. I would just suggest you start thinking of it, and framing it, differently. (at least publicly)...
by grok87
Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 29
Views: 2457

Re: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income

Yes, half the dividends come from the historical record, via Bill Bernstein's advice. During the depression, dividends fell by half in real terms (more in nominal terms though). This is easy to verify using Prof Shiller's database for CAPE. Thanks. I’m a big fan of Bill. Do you have a link or refer...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

grok87 wrote: I’d be cautious in accepting aqr’s argument that the small cap premium does not exist. I admit I haven’t read the paper but I also haven’t seen fama French publish a retraction of their 3 factor paper either. Cliff Asness categorically states in the cited article that the small premiu...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2299

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

Merchant of Venice act 1 scene 1 ANTONIO Believe me, no: I thank my fortune for it, My ventures are not in one bottom trusted, Nor to one place; nor is my whole estate Upon the fortune of this present year: Therefore my merchandise makes me not sad. Thanks, grok. It's interesting that Harry Markowi...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2299

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

by shipping your grain to like 8 different places) in case we get invaded and wiped out locally by a conquering army. Would love to know what the original text says. In the first verse, in the original Hebrew, a ship is never mentioned. Hebrew reads: Throw your bread on the waters,/for after many d...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

grok87 wrote: I’d be cautious in accepting aqr’s argument that the small cap premium does not exist. I admit I haven’t read the paper but I also haven’t seen fama French publish a retraction of their 3 factor paper either. Cliff Asness categorically states in the cited article that the small premiu...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Front load washer gross moldy gasket
Replies: 38
Views: 3675

Re: Front load washer gross moldy gasket

This is a known problem with front loaders. I have an LG front load washer that had a similar grimy issue and damp smell. What I did was a deep clean which the manual says to do once monthly for maintenance. 1. Wipe down door seals and door glass after each use, never shut the door entirely always ...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 29
Views: 2457

Re: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income

Yes, half the dividends come from the historical record, via Bill Bernstein's advice. During the depression, dividends fell by half in real terms (more in nominal terms though). This is easy to verify using Prof Shiller's database for CAPE. Thanks. I’m a big fan of Bill. Do you have a link or refer...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 29
Views: 2457

Re: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income

The "standard" 60/40 portfolio with a 4% withdrawal rate would have 10 years of withdrawals in fixed income. Those withdrawing at a lower rate expecting poor returns could go more than ten years. I retired at 57 with enough FI to get to SS at 70 plus a cushion for contingencies, so had more than 13...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2299

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

Merchant of Venice act 1 scene 1 SALANIO Believe me, sir, had I such venture forth, The better part of my affections would Be with my hopes abroad. I should be still Plucking the grass, to know where sits the wind, Peering in maps for ports and piers and roads; And every object that might make me fe...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 29
Views: 2457

Re: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income

I have north of 10 years of living expenses (currently well north) in fixed income income investments assuming those investments have a 0% real return. I am doing this because to me winning the game means being able to do what I want while I am young enough to enjoy it without having to worry about...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Repair old refrigerator or purchase new
Replies: 24
Views: 1760

Re: Repair old refrigerator or purchase new

I have an old fridge, like 20years old. It still is cold but water builds up, drips into the fridge,
Not sure whAt is going on...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2299

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

Random Walker wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:58 pm
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve."

Talmud, circa 1200 B.C
Yep. Quoted by David Swensen and Gibson before him
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2299

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

From the Bible... Solomon in Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.” Thanks. Here’s the full passage (for context) in the NIV Invest in Many Ventures 11 Ship your grain across the sea; after many days you may r...
by grok87
Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?
Replies: 10
Views: 1312

Re: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?

Mursili wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:31 pm
Each stock appeared in "Positions" as it's own position. It was just as easy to trade a position purchased in a basket as any other position held in the account.
Thanks
by grok87
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?
Replies: 10
Views: 1312

Re: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?

I have used baskets quite a bit at Fidelity to play around with the Magic Formula method. I found that it worked very well at purchasing a set of stocks. Because of the nature of the method, I ended up selling those stocks individually and never as a basket. Thanks. So were there any unexpected has...
by grok87
Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?
Replies: 10
Views: 1312

Re: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?

So you end up placing market orders for several securities simultaneously, paying commissions on each of them? It seems like not much of a convenience feature for a smaller grouping and then too expensive (commissions) for a larger grouping. My plan would be to set up a basket or REIT stocks. I’m n...
by grok87
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?
Replies: 10
Views: 1312

Re: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?

Fidelity has this thing where you can group a bunch of individual stocks into a basket and trade them as a unit. ... https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap002390-mlo-content/18.02/help/learn_basket_trading.shtml ... Anybody use this? I’m thinking about doing this for Reits as discussed in this thre...
by grok87
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?
Replies: 10
Views: 1312

Re: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?

I used them a few times a long time ago, maybe 10 years ago but I could be wrong on the time frame. I think they are OK if you want to build a portfolio of 5-12 stocks over time and do not want to hassle with individual orders on a monthly basis. At some point I sold them because keeping track of a...
by grok87
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?
Replies: 10
Views: 1312

Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?

Fidelity has this thing where you can group a bunch of individual stocks into a basket and trade them as a unit. ... https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap002390-mlo-content/18.02/help/learn_basket_trading.shtml ... Anybody use this? I’m thinking about doing this for Reits as discussed in this threa...
by grok87
Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

Replicating Anomalies by Kewei Hou, Chen Xue, and Lu Zhang in June 2017 also reported that the size factor (Me, market equity) was insignificant, with return of -.28 and t-statistic of -1.12 (negative from the Big perspective). That study analyzed 447 published anomalies over January 1967 to Decemb...
by grok87
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

I’d be cautious in accepting aqr’s argument that the small cap premium does not exist. I admit I haven’t read the paper but I also haven’t seen fama French publish a retraction of their 3 factor paper either. I think it’s important to understand thAt Aqr is not necessarily a disinterested actor on ...
by grok87
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

I’d be cautious in accepting aqr’s argument that the small cap premium does not exist. I admit I haven’t read the paper but I also haven’t seen fama French publish a retraction of their 3 factor paper either. I think it’s important to understand thAt Aqr is not necessarily a disinterested actor on ...
by grok87
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

Cliff Asness makes another cogent and, for some of us, surprising revelation in the paper quoted above by matjen. The size effect paper is the easier one to discuss in a short blog. There isn’t one. That is, there isn’t a pure size effect (there is a paper). In fact, there never was a size effect. ...
by grok87
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead guilt with buying a car - Volvo vs Toyota Highlander
Replies: 69
Views: 4671

Re: Boglehead guilt with buying a car - Volvo vs Toyota Highlander

here are some of the priorities - 1. 3 row SUV is key. Ideally 7-8 seater. So just wanted to chime in on this specific issue. I test drove the Toyota Highlander a few years ago. IMHO THe 3rd row is ridiculous- basically no room. You couldn't fit a malnourished ferret in there. As far as i can tell ...
by grok87
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 35
Views: 4076

Re: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?

Auction yield was 0.934%

The auction apparently “stopped through” (ie the auction yield was less than the secondary market yield) by about a Bp indicating there was strong demand.
by grok87
Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 35
Views: 4076

Re: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?

things move fast, secondary yield now at 0.88%. so i think it is prudent to plan for the possibility of another 5 point drop. that would mean $1065 for every tip bond you plan to purchase. That is the first row of #cruncher's table...
by grok87
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indiv. REITs in taxable because of new tax law? Aargh!
Replies: 15
Views: 2210

Re: Indiv. REITs in taxable because of new tax law? Aargh!

A direct holder of a REIT will generally be able to apply the 20% business income deduction, but a holder of a REIT mutual fund will not. This is a premature assumption. It is true that the new tax law includes REIT dividends in the 20% business income deduction, but there is no text that specifies...