Search found 8377 matches

by grok87
Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 88
Views: 8107

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

Sammy_M wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:24 pm
grok87 wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:05 am
well i think most commodities are still in contango. so there is likely to be a negative roll impact even with a longer dated futures fund, just delayed?
Fewer rolls though?
yes i suppose you're right.
by grok87
Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Test your cognitive biases
Replies: 89
Views: 5421

Re: Test your cognitive biases

I got 75-100 too. Thought it was a good test.

I wish they had shown the range of responses on the risky items like drones...
by grok87
Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 88
Views: 8107

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

Bumping this thread. BCD looks very interesting given the 0.29% ER and longer-dated futures to reduce roll impacts (both + and -). What are the issues with investing in a fund with low AUM if you hold in tax-advantaged and use a limit order set near the intraday indicative value? well i think most ...
by grok87
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My: the 10 commandments of retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 2778

Re: My: the 10 commandments of retirement

Another issue is there is not a competitive market for inflation adjusted annuities Why is this? Are these markets just not feasible? Robert Shiller has written much about products to mitigate financial risks that individuals face but nothing much ever comes out of it. https://press.princeton.edu/t...
by grok87
Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 32554

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Leverage works great as long as you know beforehand what the market is going to do over a given time frame. The problem is that no one knows this in a consistent and reliable manner. Other problems include increased costs and the ability, if the tide goes against you in a big way, to lose more than...
by grok87
Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My: the 10 commandments of retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 2778

Re: My: the 10 commandments of retirement

... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-commandments-of-retirement-2018-08-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo ... Remember that Social Security is designed to replace no more than 40% of preretirement income—and for many, that 40% is an overestimate, because the benefit calculation is skewed toward l...
by grok87
Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 32554

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Random Walker wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:10 pm
My understanding is that the major explanation of the negative returns for AQR Style Premia recently is value premium in equities.

Dave
Fair enough.

My question is why has qspix underperformed double Qslix by 180 bps over The last year.
by grok87
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My: the 10 commandments of retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 2778

My: the 10 commandments of retirement

... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-commandments-of-retirement-2018-08-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo ... Remember that Social Security is designed to replace no more than 40% of preretirement income—and for many, that 40% is an overestimate, because the benefit calculation is skewed toward lo...
by grok87
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 32554

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

So thought it might be Interesting to compare the recent returns of the two flavors of the aqr style premium funds: Qspix- the original fund Qslix- the low volatility version. I think it uses half as much leverage. 1year returns as of 8/20 Qspix: -1.15% Qslix: +0.32% I seem to recall some discussion...
by grok87
Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 48
Views: 5534

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

I'm part of the crowd decrying "just three?" Qualifier: three today, they'll be a different three if I answer again. "Just three" is a useful construct. You provide the three that you recite when you are awoken in the middle of the night, not the ones that are on your night table. Long and unlimite...
by grok87
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4-5 yrs to retirement--seeking insights on funds & priorities
Replies: 17
Views: 2422

Re: 4-5 yrs to retirement--seeking insights on funds & priorities

Thank you, CyclingDuo and Grok for the suggestions on how to apply the 3-legged stool approach to my situation. Working part time--at least for me--is definitely in the plans as is working OMY if the numbers aren't reassuring. The trick i use personally is to pick age 62 as my retirement age even i...
by grok87
Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4-5 yrs to retirement--seeking insights on funds & priorities
Replies: 17
Views: 2422

Re: 4-5 yrs to retirement--seeking insights on funds & priorities

Hi Rain and welcome to the forum, That’s exciting that retirement is now on the near horizon- 4 years or so. Congratulations! My response may be a little different. This post (the three legged stool approach to retirement planning) may be helpful. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10...
by grok87
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4-5 yrs to retirement--seeking insights on funds & priorities
Replies: 17
Views: 2422

Re: 4-5 yrs to retirement--seeking insights on funds & priorities

Hi Rain and welcome to the forum, That’s exciting that retirement is now on the near horizon- 4 years or so. Congratulations! My response may be a little different. This post (the three legged stool approach to retirement planning) may be helpful. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&...
by grok87
Sat Aug 18, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal Capital shows FTIPX as containing 16% Cash
Replies: 9
Views: 962

Re: Personal Capital shows FTIPX as containing 16% Cash

I use Personal Capital to track my portfolio allocation and net worth and noticed this after my rebalancing when checking out my allocation. It shows that FTIPX (Fidelity total international index) contains almost 16% cash. I am guessing this is a bug on their side but was wondering if it could jus...
by grok87
Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 48
Views: 5534

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

letsgobobby wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:05 am

1984, and I defend it as non-fiction.
Yup.
by grok87
Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Today I retired [should I invest in rental properties?]
Replies: 25
Views: 2969

Re: Today I retired [should I invest in rental properties?]

Just chiming in to mention the tiara real estate annuity.
by grok87
Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better Behavioural Finance Books?
Replies: 17
Views: 1354

Re: Better Behavioural Finance Books?

I specifically recommended Thaler's books earlier in this thread, because he is a "real economist" and his work has a greater emphasis on the behavioral finance. ... Victoria, that's a good point about Thaler being an economist, the link between the psychologists Kahneman and Tversky and the econom...
by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 48
Views: 5534

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

Nonfiction- Ubiquity by Mark Buchanan

Fiction- the Lord of the rings - Tolkien

Financial- “Unconventional Success” David Swensen
by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 1010

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I’m suspicious of any bond fund or cef that doesn’t disclose the sec yield and many of these do not. It is very easy to make the distribution yield look good through leverage, inverse floaters, etc. all smoke and mirrors. One way to think about the discount is as a function of the expense ratio and...
by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 1010

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I use XMPT which is a muni bond ETF that follows the S-Network Municipal Bond Closed-End Fund Index. ... Anyway, I prefer the leverage to the higher credit risk I used to hold, and overall my fixed income is yielding similar to total bond (tax adjusted) so I don't feel like I am undertaking that mu...
by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 1010

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I’m suspicious of any bond fund or cef that doesn’t disclose the sec yield and many of these do not. It is very easy to make the distribution yield look good through leverage, inverse floaters, etc. all smoke and mirrors. One way to think about the discount is as a function of the expense ratio and ...
by grok87
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1661

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

...As for me, I have annuity income from TIAA Traditional (approximately fixed from year to year), but also variable annuity income based on commercial real estate (TREA) and the broad stock market (CREF Stock). Both of the latter tend to increase over time, possibly beating inflation. But I take t...
by grok87
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1661

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Something like the Fidelity 2% annual increment or the TIAA graded payment avoids risk of...
by grok87
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1661

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by grok87
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1661

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by grok87
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 4024

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates ( but not corporations ) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly t...
by grok87
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 4024

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

for another simple example, mutual funds pass through realized capital gains but not realized capitals losses to fund shareholders (except in the sense that they offset the gains) Mutual funds are able to "pass through" long-term capital gains the fund realizes as distributions that shareholders pa...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cleaning gas grill
Replies: 40
Views: 3592

Re: Cleaning gas grill

I use copper mats. Put two on top of the grill racks, grill everything like usual then wash off the mats afterward. Nothing falls on the grill racks so no cleaning of the racks is needed. TravelforFun i recently tried the copper mats on a grill without a cover. i put one mat on the grill and one on...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plumbing emergency: Guillens for parts? Has anybody used?
Replies: 14
Views: 1031

Re: Shower is fixed!

<snip> As a side note, when attempting home repairs myself I always think of this Schopenhauer quote All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. — Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860) 1...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 4024

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

Mutual funds are pretty explicitly pass through entities. I don’t understand how someone could look at these regulations and say REIT funds aren’t included, but I’m not an expert. i understand your perspective. but i think there is a technical tax meaning to "pass through" and mutual funds are not ...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plumbing emergency: Guillens for parts? Has anybody used?
Replies: 14
Views: 1031

Shower is fixed!

Shower is fixed! Thanks for everyone who responded. the parts came as advertised. i over ordered as i wasn't sure what i needed. it turned out all i needed was a $5 part! I really had no idea what i was doing. i experimented and watched a bunch of youtube videos. if i add up all the costs for the st...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9714

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

Here's the updated version of this comparison. I believe Swensen moved from 20% REIT to 15%. Anyway, this link compares Swensen's portfolio to the 3 fund with the same AA. It's a tie, and the conclusion is.... Lesson learned: Portfolios do not need to be complicated to be successful. :happy https:/...
by grok87
Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3674

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

Whoever is lending is probably a lot more savvy than the NYT writer (certainly he has been financially way more successful because he has the money to lend) so I am dubious that the NYT has any more insight into whether there is a "bubble" than a random person in the street. The people "doing the l...
by grok87
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9714

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

just bumping this interesting thread from a few years ago. I guess if one follows Swensen and holds a separate allocation to EM it might be time to rebalance. Hi grok, My portfolio strongly resembles Swensen's model portfolio, and I do have a dedicated allocation to EM with a small tilt. But last t...
by grok87
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 104
Views: 11564

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Wait 6 months till they are out of the news TUR was at 26.84 on july 24th. now at 21.49 You weren't wrong. I don't know if I am impatient or somehow [was] *expecting* the buying opportunity to go away. i've done the same thing myself. :) ... the old wall street adage "cut your losses but let your w...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9714

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

just bumping this interesting thread from a few years ago. I guess if one follows Swensen and holds a separate allocation to EM it might be time to rebalance. Hi grok, My portfolio strongly resembles Swensen's model portfolio, and I do have a dedicated allocation to EM with a small tilt. But last t...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9714

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

just bumping this interesting thread from a few years ago. I guess if one follows Swensen and holds a separate allocation to EM it might be time to rebalance.
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 104
Views: 11564

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Wait 6 months till they are out of the news TUR was at 26.84 on july 24th. now at 21.49 You weren't wrong. I don't know if I am impatient or somehow [was] *expecting* the buying opportunity to go away. i've done the same thing myself. :) whenever a stock or a country takes a nosedive, one often hea...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 104
Views: 11564

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

grok87 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:28 am
Wait 6 months till they are out of the news
TUR was at 26.84 on july 24th. now at 21.49
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: financial planning and the unknowability of the future
Replies: 15
Views: 1496

Re: financial planning and the unknowability of the future

2) contributing to tax deferred accounts though your tax bracket in retirement *might* be higher 2) if your tax bracket in retirement is higher then perhaps your future self is well off? if your tax bracket in retirement is lower, then perhaps your future self is poor. in this second case you'll pr...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 4024

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates (but not corporations) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly tra...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3674

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

As far as I know quantitative easing involved the fed purchasing treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities (which have no credit risk). You are correct that the Fed did not purchase any corporate debt via QE (the central banks of other countries have included corporate debt in their schemes,...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3674

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/corporate-debt-bubble-next-recession.html Thoughts? Can any fixed income bankers here confirm / deny this trend? Fits nicely with the other recent thread about how Treasury bonds are the only bonds you need. I think this quote is wrong? Mr. Bernanke had a ...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: financial planning and the unknowability of the future
Replies: 15
Views: 1496

Re: financial planning and the unknowability of the future

Hi all, I am noticing in my thinking that I am trying more to abide by the principle of the future's unknowability, the future being more "unknowable" the farther out it gets. Therefore, I try to make decisions that benefit me most in the nearer term, say within 5 or 10 years. For example, I prefer...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 4024

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates (but not corporations) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly tra...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 88
Views: 8107

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:50 am
Fun with numbers - total returns over the last 7 years:
Nasdaq 100: +289%
S&P 500: +193%
Bloomberg Commodity Index: -43%

:beer
thanks
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 4024

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates (but not corporations) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly trad...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 88
Views: 8107

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

I have a tiny bit of BCI and BCD. I think the big problem with BCI, BCD and CMDY is volume is so low. I wonder if anyone will offer them commission free. Also with low AUM if they don't grow I feel risk is they get closed out. I would be inclined to spread any purchase of commodity over multiple fu...