Search found 8373 matches

by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1331

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

The Wizard wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:20 am

TIAA is arguably the best available provider of immediate annuities, both "fixed" (Trad) and variable (TREA and the CREF VAs).
i would be interested in hearing more about this. i'm not doubting you but how did you arrive at this conclusion?
cheers,
grok
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1331

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

In my opinion, the only reason to stay with TIAA is if you wish to stay in their proprietary funds such as Traditional Annuity and Real Estate, and/or if you plan to annuitize. Personally I am still in accumulation. Any funds that would otherwise be normally invested, I will most certainly roll ove...
by grok87
Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3335

Re: Pension alternatives

In the beginning, you say: If I put $200K in another 4 rental properties, I bet I can get at least $15K a year from the additional properties If you buy a fixed annuity, you will get about $1,000 a month ($12K a year) which is not that far off from $15K without all the associated expenses. Seriousl...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5136

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Investors looking at U.S. stocks at current valuation levels and bonds with rising interest rates are asking: "can I buy anything else?" Maybe commodities or old yellow? T-Bills might not be a bad idea either. Those are at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, so they are not close substitutes. The B...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5136

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

I have about 20% of my portfolio in funds invested in the stocks of commodities producers. I was persuaded by the writings of Bill Bernstein and GMO regarding commodities that if I was going to invest in commodities to avoid commodities futures and stick with commodity producing companies, as backw...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Jeff Albertson wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:54 pm
For a non-fringe view of what caused the housing crisis, see calculatedriskblog.com -
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017 ... using.html
Interesting
Here’s a direct link

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heres-what ... ng-crisis/
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

grok - I have looked at TIPS, REITS, and other "standard" asset classes. TIPS do not seem to do much (though we have not gone through an inflationary environment with the current products, and I am considering them), REITS have a nice CAGR kick but at big increase in volatility (and a bunch of taxe...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10182

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

Hope we all live long lives, but the Brookings Institution Hamilton Project calculated that if you've already made it to 65 (which is good, because nearly a fifth of Americans die before that age): Men have a 90 percent chance of living to 70, 62 percent of living to 80, and just 22 percent of livi...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10182

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

The following is copied from a post by an investor at the the Fidelity website. I assume I am not violating any rules by reproducing it here. The author makes an argument for taking social security benefits at age 66. It would be very interesting to hear what some of the sharp minds here have to sa...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

While I will probably get flack for being simple minded, here is how I benchmark ALT funds like QSPIX. I simply look at how the fund would have affected my current portfolio, as that is all I can test relative to what matters to me. Using PortfolioVisualizer, I look for what I would consider a comp...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA: Help with Payout Options
Replies: 24
Views: 1727

Re: TIAA: Help with Payout Options

I have a small annuity ($55k) split between Traditional and variable. I'm 66, still working as a consultant part-time, and married with 3 adult kids. My husband works full-time. ...I now need to decide how to take my TIAA payout--lifetime or 10 payments over 9 years... Why do you need to decide now...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5136

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Investors looking at U.S. stocks at current valuation levels and bonds with rising interest rates are asking: "can I buy anything else?" Maybe commodities or old yellow? T-Bills might not be a bad idea either. Those are at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, so they are not close substitutes. The B...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Grok Not really back, just posting on occasion to either correct misstatements or to provide answers to questions that others cannot, like the sources of returns to AQR funds this year. As to that leverage, so you would consider a market neutral fund that is 100% long and 100% short to be 100% leve...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Few thing to keep in mind. As noted AQR funds use limited amounts of leverage, maybe 3-4 times and they do so in relatively lower volatility factors. Larry, great to hAve you back posting again! As far as I can tell from qspix’s fact sheet they are 340% long and 310% short. I think of that as being...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

It would be interesting to look at a portfolio of say cash and us stocks that targets a certain level of volatility based on the vix and how that would have performed through say the 1987 crash and the global financial crisis. As opppsed to say a fixed 60/40 stocks/cash portfolio that is periodical...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA: Help with Payout Options
Replies: 24
Views: 1727

Re: TIAA: Help with Payout Options

Anybody taking variable payout annuity from the tiaa real estate annuity? I’m considering that
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

I think your last two sentences are key. It would be interesting to look at a portfolio of say cash and us stocks that targets a certain level of volatility based on the vix and how that would have performed through say the 1987 crash and the global financial crisis. As opppsed to say a fixed 60/40...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

I think your last two sentences are key. It would be interesting to look at a portfolio of say cash and us stocks that targets a certain level of volatility based on the vix and how that would have performed through say the 1987 crash and the global financial crisis. As opppsed to say a fixed 60/40...
by grok87
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?
Replies: 33
Views: 2090

Re: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?

i like the short term corporates to short term treasuries idea. David Swensen advocates bonds being in treasuries and tips. Larry Swedroe likes CDs and treasuries (not the funds, so much), and believes investors are not adequately compensated for corporate bonds.. Agree. I seem to remember Larry al...
by grok87
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

well to state the obvious, then in low volatility times positions are larger. and then volatility spikes and one is forces to liquidate some of one's positions at the worst possible time. sounds like long term capital management to me. Frequently vol spikes prior to the large losses. But even if no...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

In the FAQ section at the end, Cliff does a great job of explaining some of the rationale behind volatility scaling. It doesn’t just help volatility, it also helps I think correlation to macro events. This is also related to the tracking error pain of “losing unconventionally” Why is this happening...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 37
Views: 2164

Re: Put Options

(Before everybody is telling me I shouldn't trade in options: The amount I'm speculating with represents a tiny portion of our net worth, much less than 1%. If I lose the whole amount, so be it. Call it financial curiosity or gambling, I know it's not investing.) So my question is this: I would lik...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5136

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

more discussion in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=243986&start=50

personally i am waiting for the broad commodity index, bcom, to move into backwardation
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 37
Views: 2164

Re: Put Options

(Before everybody is telling me I shouldn't trade in options: The amount I'm speculating with represents a tiny portion of our net worth, much less than 1%. If I lose the whole amount, so be it. Call it financial curiosity or gambling, I know it's not investing.) So my question is this: I would lik...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?
Replies: 33
Views: 2090

Re: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?

Watching the news recently has caused me to be concerned that the probability of a stock market correction or bear market is currently higher than normal. Without starting a discussion of the news itself the areas of concern are upcoming elections, trade wars and yield curve inversion. Does it make...
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207835

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

For years Morningstar listed the figure without dividends on short sales for the expense ratio for funds like these, including Vanguard Market Neutral. As a matter of consistency, it doesn't make sense to me that this would be included in the expense ratio. It's more along the lines of brokerage ex...
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2653

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:47 pm
Auditionee: Therefore you should pay me lots and lots of money, potentially more than half your long-term return, to protect you from bad behavior I claim low expense ratios will encourage you to engage in.

Casting Director: Next!

PJW
+1
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2653

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

greg24 wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:43 am
Never underestimate the ability of the advisor industry to attempt to portray low costs as a bad thing for investors.
+1
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207835

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisi I was referring to QSPIX (which is the thread title after all and referred to in my post). There has been a long history about the ER on it. Lackey mentioned as well. Check footnotes for net. 1.5 or 1.6. I see footnote 4. That's not total expenses. It's a number AQR thinks is relevant and that...
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207835

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisi I was referring to QSPIX (which is the thread title after all and referred to in my post). There has been a long history about the ER on it. Lackey mentioned as well. Check footnotes for net. 1.5 or 1.6. I see footnote 4. That's not total expenses. It's a number AQR thinks is relevant and that...
by grok87
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2653

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

"Investors are more likely to churn their portfolios as costs drop to nothing" It makes no sense. Supposed ERs are mandated to be 1% among all funds. Churning or not churning doesn't make any difference in your cost. If you are going to churn you just churn from one 1% fund to another 1% fund. Now ...
by grok87
Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207835

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I am curious to hear thoughts on the recent performance of QSPIX. Both the 3-month and YTD performance as of 7/31/18 is -7.41%. Also, I'm not positive but I believe Morningstar downgraded the fund from 5 stars to 4 stars sometime in the past year. I'm thinking this is within the bounds of normal fo...
by grok87
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ARM Mortgage resetting - what would you do?
Replies: 19
Views: 1217

Re: ARM Mortgage resetting - what would you do?

I too have the PenFed 5/5 and mine is resetting December 1. I wont be in my home longer than another few years so the 5/5 continues to make sense for me. Has anyone had any success negotiating this promo with PenFed? I'm on autopay, never had a late or missed payment, so I'm a good customer; though...
by grok87
Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13692

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

so looking at exhibit 3, for a 60/40 and 70/30 portfolio the (historical) safe withdrawal rates that would have survived for 30 years with 99% probability for the US and global portfolios respecively are: US: 60/40 3.8% 70/30 3.9% Global 60/40 2.9% 70/30 3.0% do i have that right? Yes, you did. I w...
by grok87
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13692

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

thanks so looking at exhibit 3, for a 60/40 and 70/30 portfolio the (historical) safe withdrawal rates that would have survived for 30 years with 99% probability for the US and global portfolios respecively are: US: 60/40 3.8% 70/30 3.9% Global 60/40 2.9% 70/30 3.0% do i have that right? cheers, gr...
by grok87
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13692

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

Yes, 2000 was definitely an outlier. Based on siamond's post, there were only six starting years since 1950 where 100% stock did not leave one with a larger real portfolio after 18 years of withdrawals than a 50/50 or 100% TBM portfolio. But don't lose sight of the fact that the U.S. stock market, ...
by grok87
Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13692

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

Here's a short article on the"lost decade." The author then shows a portfolio created after the fact that did quite well. The point he is trying to make is diversification is important, but I doubt anyone here would allocate his way. https://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/why-it-shouldnt-have-b...
by grok87
Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4108

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

CDs often incur state taxes. Or if you hold in a tax deferred account there is extra hassle of rolling over iras etc. I assume the rolling over hassle you are referring to would be for direct CDs? Brokered CDs should be no more difficult to keep funds invested in than treasuries are. I used to be a...
by grok87
Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4108

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

The article was very interesting and ties in with a problem that I am currently noodling over - where to put my fixed income asset allocation? However, one sentence (in the linked article) really stood out: "The survey’s third-quarter 2018 estimate for inflation over the next 10 years is 2.2%..." A...
by grok87
Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4108

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

One of Larry's better articles. A few factors that he didn't mention: a) There is a chance that unexpected inflation will be inflation that is less than expected, in which case there would be an offsetting negative premium for TIPS. b) There is an emotional component for retail investors who don't ...
by grok87
Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4108

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

It’s a good article. Thanks for posting random walker and good job Larry. That being said, i’m Not really a fan of the cd stuff at the closing. CDs often incur state taxes. Or if you hold in a tax deferred account there is extra hassle of rolling over iras etc. I used to be a fan of CDs. But now the...
by grok87
Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13692

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

Great post HomerJ. That's why I think a mix of SPIAs and a balanced portfolio is best. I need to sleep at night knowing I have a foundation of some sort of income that won't let the bottom fall out. The SPIAs don't have to cover all needed income, but enough so that if the portfolio starts to sink ...
by grok87
Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 88
Views: 8106

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

Sammy_M wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:24 pm
grok87 wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:05 am
well i think most commodities are still in contango. so there is likely to be a negative roll impact even with a longer dated futures fund, just delayed?
Fewer rolls though?
yes i suppose you're right.
by grok87
Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Test your cognitive biases
Replies: 89
Views: 5416

Re: Test your cognitive biases

I got 75-100 too. Thought it was a good test.

I wish they had shown the range of responses on the risky items like drones...
by grok87
Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 88
Views: 8106

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

Bumping this thread. BCD looks very interesting given the 0.29% ER and longer-dated futures to reduce roll impacts (both + and -). What are the issues with investing in a fund with low AUM if you hold in tax-advantaged and use a limit order set near the intraday indicative value? well i think most ...
by grok87
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My: the 10 commandments of retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 2776

Re: My: the 10 commandments of retirement

Another issue is there is not a competitive market for inflation adjusted annuities Why is this? Are these markets just not feasible? Robert Shiller has written much about products to mitigate financial risks that individuals face but nothing much ever comes out of it. https://press.princeton.edu/t...