Search found 1132 matches

by ryman554
Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?
Replies: 35
Views: 5343

Re: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?

What wrong with 1990? A great year to retire for 4% rule. You get the run up of the 90's ( of which 2000 was a correction) and only a "little" blip in 2008. Iraq invaded Kuwait in July 1990, causing oil prices to increase. The Dow dropped 18% in three months, from 2,911.63 on July 3 to 2,381.99 on ...
by ryman554
Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?
Replies: 35
Views: 5343

Re: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?

Jerry55 wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:33 pm
ryman554 wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:04 am
What's wrong with 2000?

LOL !!! Looks like I skipped a decade !!! I meant 1990.
I really hate getting old at times.... :oops:
What wrong with 1990? A great year to retire for 4% rule. You get the run up of the 90's ( of which 2000 was a correction) and only a "little" blip in 2008.
by ryman554
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?
Replies: 35
Views: 5343

Re: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?

The US wasn't the best market to invest in (Sweden, Australia, and South Africa all beat it out, if I remember). But it was certainly in the top performers. Looking at other markets during the 20th century is a hard thing to interpret. ... My sense is that, for the cases/countries where something l...
by ryman554
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?
Replies: 35
Views: 5343

Re: Is the 4% rule/ index funds flawed?

I won't get into the Index fund conversation, good, bad or indifferent. The 4% rule is a horse of a different color. Have another melt down like 2008, or mini crash like in 2000 or so ? Those numbers can be quite difficult to obtain and may force one to actually stop taking cash. It all depends. Wh...
by ryman554
Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Effect of Social Security when Retiring before Benefits Begin
Replies: 24
Views: 6230

Re: Effect of Social Security when Retiring before Benefits Begin

I could go through the math and work out present value calculations, but it seems is if these methods need to assume a growth rate of the portfolio.. what happens when such growth rate is not achieved, or is overachieved? I prefer a different approach, using a sustainable withdrawal rate. I know rou...
by ryman554
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ESPP - Optimum Holding Period, Taxes & Fees?
Replies: 11
Views: 831

Re: ESPP - Optimum Holding Period, Taxes & Fees?

Stock vests. Sell within miliseconds of settled shares. When the stock takes an unexpected 20% dive, you don't care. (before learning my lesson, I had my shares dive 75%) Don't let the tax tail wag the dog. I'd rather pay 33% tax on a big gain than 0% tax on a big loss. Having been there, I can say...
by ryman554
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options
Replies: 46
Views: 5481

Re: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options

Dumb question, but any benefit to relocating, at least on paper, to another state to avoid the CA taxes? Not sure the nuance of it, but CA = ouch. Not from the options, no. I learned this the hard way. Options are taxed as sourced to the state in which the options were granted. Even if you move to ...
by ryman554
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin
Replies: 47
Views: 4929

Re: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin

Sure, and for the reasons you say, I am a passive investor 90% of the time, mostly with Vanguard due to their low fees. However, I've "actively" cut back my equity allocation since last year, because I think at today's valuations, the rewards for risk are not appealing to me. What I put the money i...
by ryman554
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options
Replies: 46
Views: 5481

Re: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options

Thank you, everyone. Sounds like I should accelerate my sales plans. On whether I've already won and don't "need" any more: I figured I'd retire early if I hit $20M, as 5% long-term return would yield my current salary. That said, I'm not willing to gamble the whole pot in the hopes of getting to $...
by ryman554
Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin
Replies: 47
Views: 4929

Re: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin

No there isn't , this thread is just food for thought. Anyway I appreciated your post, I'm surprised they got one forecast right. I didn't know. Well I think it is QUITE actionable. The moral of the story is NOT to jump all over GMO and Mr. Granthem, but to reinforce for those who need it (and base...
by ryman554
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options
Replies: 46
Views: 5481

Re: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options

You're making $1M a year. You have $10M in options. You said they are NQO ( and not ISO), so there is no tax benefit to selling later rather than sooner unless you are gambling on price appreciation, in which case you want to exercise options as soon as they vest. Since you aren't doing that, I prop...
by ryman554
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Implications On My Stock Options
Replies: 2
Views: 361

Re: Tax Implications On My Stock Options

You gained $1.04 per share, ($3.49-$2.45) by exercising the stock option. The net gain of $3,250 (3,125*$1.04) minus any fee incurred by the exercise will show up on line 1 of your 2018 Form W-2 by your previous employer as ordinary wages or salary. The basis of the stock is now $3.49. Is that righ...
by ryman554
Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $500k Term Life- get new policy?
Replies: 14
Views: 963

Re: $500k Term Life- get new policy?

Without debt and mortgage, 140k is a lot of spending. But, then again, you're doing extremely well. Are you including taxes on this spending? You have $3M in the bank. You could stop right now and support a ~$120k retirement (pretax, slightly aggressive). Let's say you get hit by a bus. Since you ha...
by ryman554
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any source for: "If markets fall X%, a X/X portfolio will fall X%?
Replies: 10
Views: 960

Re: Any source for: "If markets fall X%, a X/X portfolio will fall X%?

Thanks, Joe. Math was never my strength! A real liability in investing. -Bob It is a *huge* liability, because without a decent math background, you will be forced to trust others. There aren't a whole lot of folks in the investment community that have your best interests at heart. Even those with ...
by ryman554
Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping a checkbook register
Replies: 122
Views: 9990

Re: Keeping a checkbook register

Edit: Wow, <facepalm>. That was a zombie post... Sorry! A year or two ago I changed to keeping it in a Word document. The entries look like this: check 1061 Dec 12 Pocasset $25 balance 621.95 check 1062 Dec 14 charlies rubbish removal $396 balance 225.95 The entries are in bold type and I change the...
by ryman554
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: when is it better to take short term capital gain
Replies: 6
Views: 795

Re: when is it better to take short term capital gain

Is there any time based on accrued income, it is better to take short term gain than long term gain ? I have a vague understanding that after a certain income accrued long term gains are not taxed at 20% + 3.8% medicare tax and it is better to take short term gains and keep the long term gains for ...
by ryman554
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I use Fidelity's BrokerageLink to avoid 401k fees?
Replies: 14
Views: 1093

Re: Can I use Fidelity's BrokerageLink to avoid 401k fees?

One data point here: I appears as if I avoid the fees. I know my ex- company started instituting $25/quarter fees or so before I left. I had some remainder funds stuck in a MM account due to an unexpected (and botched) after tax contribution and subsequent roth roll-over from a random bonus I was no...
by ryman554
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-casting mortgage
Replies: 11
Views: 1431

Re: Re-casting mortgage

With a $6k mortgage payment I’ll assume you have enough interest that you are above the new $24k standard deduction. Maybe that is another thing to consider depending on your tax bracket. A 6k mortgage payment corresponds to a 1.3M house or so. There is a limit (750k, now?) on the deductibility, an...
by ryman554
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-casting mortgage
Replies: 11
Views: 1431

Re: Re-casting mortgage

It's unclear if your take-home includes 401(k) or other such investments. I calculate close to $200k take home, so this could be anywhere from 300 to 450k in total salary. You have about a 1.3M mortgage. That's a lot for a 300k salary, perhaps OK for a 450k salary. For the bay area, that's a step ab...
by ryman554
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: W-4 allowances: why not withhold the minimum to avoid penalty?
Replies: 17
Views: 1448

Re: W-4 allowances: why not withhold the minimum to avoid penalty?

Just as a follow up, I calculated using Notice 1036 ( https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/n1036.pdf ) and, if I want to have NO income tax withheld from my paychecks going forward, I have to claim >50 allowances on my W-4. My question: if I claim >50 allowances on my W-4, will this, in itself, cause an...
by ryman554
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can't participate in 401k for 1 year
Replies: 33
Views: 2701

Re: Can't participate in 401k for 1 year

FYI - The one year rule is not uncommon. That usually signifies a "safe harbor" plan. I'm struggling with the connection between the two. The safe harbor plan (at least one version of it), ensures "fairness" across different earnings levels by either matching a certain percentage of your contributi...
by ryman554
Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for my employer’s ESPP?
Replies: 27
Views: 1603

Re: Strategy for my employer’s ESPP?

If you are maxing pre-tax 401ks, Roth IRAs, HSA, then I put ESPP and Taxable investing on the same level. I wouldn't do it if you have non-mortgage debt or aren't maxing your other retirement buckets. I take issue with that advice. After the first period, ESPP plans become self-funding. Return of c...
by ryman554
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for my employer’s ESPP?
Replies: 27
Views: 1603

Re: Strategy for my employer’s ESPP?

If you are maxing pre-tax 401ks, Roth IRAs, HSA, then I put ESPP and Taxable investing on the same level. I wouldn't do it if you have non-mortgage debt or aren't maxing your other retirement buckets. I take issue with that advice. After the first period, ESPP plans become self-funding. Return of c...
by ryman554
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Residual TIRA Basis
Replies: 7
Views: 433

Re: Residual TIRA Basis

Everybody else with a few cents leftover simply does another conversion right away. You should, too. That wasn't the question. The OP presumably lost $5 between contribution and conversion. OP, if you convert the whole amount, the extra basis disappears. If you leave $1 left, you retain the whole b...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone considering considering traditional to Roth to the top of the 24% bracket ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1961

Re: Is anyone considering considering traditional to Roth to the top of the 24% bracket ?

That might be so if the choice were between Roth and taxable, but here it's between converting to Roth and keeping the money in traditional. There's zero difference in compounding between growing tax-free (Roth) and tax-deferred (traditional). Commutative property of multiplication. The only differ...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonus to pay for Moving Expenses - Due to Tax Law Change
Replies: 5
Views: 917

Re: Bonus to pay for Moving Expenses - Due to Tax Law Change

"I'd like $1M, please" But seriously, determine the tax bracket you would be for an entire year in your new job, federal and state. Add in SS if your under the social security limit for the entire year, also just the medicare part (and the extra tax if you're over $250k). Be reasonable and don't swe...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Betterment Thinks We're Stupid
Replies: 17
Views: 3866

Re: Opinion: Betterment Thinks We're Stupid

Have you seen Betterment's new 'no-jargon' video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-9II-zBq1k They present this as a 'no-jargon' way to teach their customers or future customers how to invest. My interpretation is they're treating us like we're stupid and unable to comprehend investment terms. Perh...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mobile deposit of Rollover Check
Replies: 15
Views: 1281

Re: Mobile deposit of Rollover Check

I like Schwab but I'm going to be doing this every 6 weeks or so, so being able to deposit the rollover checks remotely would be awesome. It seems like Vanguard only allows it for traditional IRAs. Do y'all know of any brokerage that would allow me to deposit any rollover check remotely? Thanks! Si...
by ryman554
Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice for purchasing home in HCOL area
Replies: 5
Views: 750

Re: Seeking advice for purchasing home in HCOL area

Depending on the area, you may need "all cash" to have your offer accepted. That doesn't mean you don't need or want a mortgage, but you can't have a "finance contingency" for your offer. This is a situation where I would go get a mortgage (may need to be below 625,500 for best rates) and do whatev...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?
Replies: 209
Views: 22541

Re: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?

No. Well, maybe a little internal high-five.

Reason: I've still got a long way to go for financial independence. But it's the indication of light at the end of the tunnel.
by ryman554
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you retire on $2M?
Replies: 173
Views: 22274

Re: Can you retire on $2M?

You can argue between a 2% and 3% SWR, and you have a reasonable chance of ending with nothing. Anything higher you have to use a lot of imagination to justify. What data do you use to justify such small withdrawal rates? 3.3+% (or thereabouts) seems to be a perpetual withdrawal rate that takes you...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice for purchasing home in HCOL area
Replies: 5
Views: 750

Re: Seeking advice for purchasing home in HCOL area

Hello everyone, I am currently looking to buy a home for my family in a high cost of living area for around $1M. We currently have about $800K invested in VBINX index fund right now with additional $400K coming in from selling property. I am a physician in my mid-30s, with avg household income of ~...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?
Replies: 34
Views: 3069

Re: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?

Thank you all for the responses so far. First, we can look at the empirical evidence. Stock do drop pretty much by the dividend amount. Not exactly - but the differences between the close and open between ex-dividend dates are about the same differences between open and close on non-ex-dividend date...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?
Replies: 34
Views: 3069

Re: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?

So, the market maker *should* change the price to (closing price day N-1) - (dividend per share). But do they really? Because they don't *have* to. What makes you think that they don't have to adjust the opening quoted price for dividends? Because I can't get my head around what you seem to be sayi...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?
Replies: 34
Views: 3069

Re: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?

That really doesn't answer my question, and, while having dividend-adjusted prices is nice, doesn't get to the heart of the matter on how the bid/ask prices change from 1600EST ex-dividend day to 0900EST the next day. There are statistics to be had to see if the price people actually buy things for...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?
Replies: 34
Views: 3069

Re: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?

Since nobody sets prices for any stock, and a lot of folks out there don't even know it's ex-dividend day, how, exactly, does the price suddenly change? Yes, someone does set prices for stocks, or at least quotes the prices, and manages historical price data. The prices quoted are adjusted. https:/...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I don't trust my own estimate of expenses
Replies: 29
Views: 2649

Re: I don't trust my own estimate of expenses

For me EVERYTHING is paid through my one checking account. I just pulled 24 months of statements from the bank and summed the debits. Gave a pretty good picture. Dottie57 is showing the right/easiest/most accurate way to do it. This is what I do: a. download the year's transactions from my checking...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?
Replies: 34
Views: 3069

Re: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?

You would expect the price of a stock to drop by the amount of the dividend on ex-dividend day. There are other things at play here though. Good news could boost the stock price even with the announced dividend. In any case, the price is lower than it would have been if there had been no dividend a...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost job. Take early SS or draw from accounts?
Replies: 54
Views: 6348

Re: Lost job. Take early SS or draw from accounts?

Therefore, the correct strategy is to get the income and money now. We can agree to disagree. IMHO, the correct strategy is to get a job (any job), lower her costs as much as possible, and delay SS her benefits for as long as she can. I absolutely agree with the first two, I was under the assumptio...
by ryman554
Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost job. Take early SS or draw from accounts?
Replies: 54
Views: 6348

Re: Lost job. Take early SS or draw from accounts?

It's not clear how much she can get in benefits by beginning early. If she starts now, she'll probably get about $1600/month or so. Frankly, that not enough. She may not have a choice. But if at all possible she should wait at least until FRA, and preferably until 70. She needs as much income as sh...
by ryman554
Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we need 529?
Replies: 42
Views: 4526

Re: Why do we need 529?

One can save over $400,000 in a 529 plan; just try that with a ROTH IRA. One can withdraw principal from a ROTH IRA, one CAN NOT withdraw earnings from a ROTH IRA unless you are age 59.5. Will you be age 59.5 when child goes to school? To clarify: You most certainly *can* withdraw earnings from a R...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One IRA contribution was non-deductible, but no records
Replies: 14
Views: 1244

Re: One IRA contribution was non-deductible, but no records

It would not be worth it to me. You are contemplating 4 or 5 rollovers and a roth conversion followed by a later rollover. If you are in the 25% tax bracket till the end of your days, the most you would save is $500. If you don't spend your entire IRA before you die, I guess you save nothing. I agr...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does cost basis rollover during an IRA rollover and strategies involved?
Replies: 3
Views: 299

Re: Does cost basis rollover during an IRA rollover and strategies involved?

I know for retirement accounts cost basis really shouldn't matter, but I would like to have it if possible. Thank you for any thoughts. Why? As you said, it doesn't matter for tax reasons. Are you trying to compute an IRR? You need cash in, not cost basis, since the cost basis drops as dividends ar...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero
Replies: 40
Views: 4638

Re: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero

Yep. The difference between .04% and zero is really pretty minuscule. The article shows that a .09% ER fund (more than double VTI) will cost $1,500 over 30 years, but it should be pointed out that at the same growth rate, that fund would also grow by over $47,000. Fees make a BIG difference when yo...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expensive house in HCOL area
Replies: 70
Views: 7146

Re: Expensive house in HCOL area

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:54 pm
Study shows in SF and SEA, people made more money from their home appreciation than their annual wages during last couple of years.
Unless they up and left, they haven't made anything yet.

nb: I'm living your statement and wondering about mine.
by ryman554
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to buy more time -- job offer
Replies: 9
Views: 1724

Re: how to buy more time -- job offer

I got and will take job 2 -- a better offer all around thanks all for your advice and support. Next up speaking with Job 1 tomorrow! I feel bad as the CEO was very very kind to me. You have two offers. Why are you not using them to leverage each other? All other things being equal, do you want to w...
by ryman554
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26553

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I usually post to point out that 4% is plenty conservative enough NOT to convince those people to spend more money, but to protect people new to this site who might come on here and feel like they should work another 7 years, when they really don't have to. That's exactly why I responded. Even thou...
by ryman554
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26553

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Please show me the data the supports your 2.5% statement. It isn't based on historical data, it's based on being able to last for 40 years (the expected time I'll be in retirement, age 45 to 85) with 0% real return. Of course I might die at 50, or we might have positive real returns over the next 5...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time Home Buyer in HCOL area - funds check
Replies: 28
Views: 4041

Re: First time Home Buyer in HCOL area - funds check

pepperjackNJ wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:19 am
I could not find any banks offering no PMI mortgage.
I will search again harder

Thanks
Go with a mortgage broker and get yourself an 80/10/10 or something. I'd suggest an upfront guy (head over to mortgage professor), but you're not going to get these options by going to a single bank.
by ryman554
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26553

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

4% rule is risky business, at least for someone looking to retire a little early. I'm planning to use the 2.5% rule when I retire, with no SS or pension factored in. Please show me the data the supports your 2.5% statement. You can justify 3.5% or something nearby with data. Search for "perpetual w...