Search found 290 matches

by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if Henry Blodget is right about the stock market?
Replies: 47
Views: 5426

Re: What if Henry Blodget is right about the stock market?

i'm just starting my retirement accounts and looking 30 years down the lime. if i had my way, the market would go to the dumps the next 10 years and i would buy, buy, buy.
by ERMD
Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Different target retirement age per spouse?
Replies: 7
Views: 691

Different target retirement age per spouse?

for married couples with an age difference, do you have a combined target retirement age, or separate ages per person? i.e., i am 1.5 years older than my wife. if our target retirement age is 55, does that i mean i retire 1.5 years before she does, or do we retire at 55/53.5 (him/her), or do we reti...
by ERMD
Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple Asset Allocation for Life
Replies: 8
Views: 1376

Re: Simple Asset Allocation for Life

You've made a dramatic bet there on US small value stocks (~2% of the global market), holding almost as much as the entire foreign stock universe (~60% of the global market). Diversify instead and hold the market weightings, unless you know something about those small value stocks the market doesn'...
by ERMD
Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

whoops! i had those corrected on my end and copied the old numbers over. fixed now, sorry about that.
by ERMD
Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

I'd probably use a 4% or so return - a 100% stock allocation would be lucky to get 7% over the next 20 years. how do you figure? are you assuming a 20+ year deviation from historic returns? that seems awfully pessimistic. even a 70/30 equities/bonds split over the last 86 years has had an annual 9....
by ERMD
Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

529 contributions and future tuition costs

hello all - i was recently prompted to explore the expected cost of college tuition 18 years from now, when my son will be finishing high school. just thought i'd share with everyone after going through the work myself, in case anyone is interested. based on the estimates below, i've constructed a c...
by ERMD
Fri Feb 28, 2014 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Market Tacos
Replies: 3
Views: 956

Re: Efficient Market Tacos

pays dividends in acid reflux and indigestion.
by ERMD
Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Total World considered tilting?
Replies: 8
Views: 1032

Re: Is Total World considered tilting?

agree with above. tilting, by definition, is overweighting certain sectors. if your holdings are the proportionally weighted world stock market, you are on flat ground.
by ERMD
Fri Feb 28, 2014 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: huge discrepency in retirement spending models
Replies: 10
Views: 1300

huge discrepency in retirement spending models

while discussing retirement goals in a separate thread, i was turned on to firecalc, which is a great resource. however, i am struck by what a huge discrepency exists when choosing a "constant spending power" model vs. the variable bernicke model. to wit: married couple, starting now with 10,000 in ...
by ERMD
Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 8264

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

thanks for the great replies. 3M seems like a good number for us at 100k/yr, after playing with firecalc for some time. and actually, looking at everyone's replies, it seems like that would be in the ballpark for a group average.
by ERMD
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 8264

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

sorry, my math was a bit off. at 8%, you'll finish with 72k in 18 years. you're also right that i need to re-adjust a bit, maybe $250 a month. but the SUNY schools right now are ~88k for 4 years. 250 a month at 8% gives me 120k. so even if the tuition literally doubles (and it probably won't be THA...
by ERMD
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 8264

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

150 a month into a 529 plan per child gives you close to 80k when they're going off to college. that will be enough to pay most of 4 years at a state school. if they want to go private, they can take out loans for the remainder like i did. ;) You need to re-evaluate this. First, you are assuming an...
by ERMD
Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 8264

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

Get multiple children through college over the next 15-20 years debt-free and your goal will be VERY daunting. If you area accustomed to a comfortable lifestyle with earned income and you want to maintain that lifestyle, your number will also be daunting. If you can live somewhat simplistically bel...
by ERMD
Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 8264

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

The process I use to get a "number" is pretty straightforward. So you see that there's a lot of uncertainty here. Who really knows what their expenses will be in retirement? Or what inflation will be? Or what a safe withdrawl rate will be by then? Your "number" has a pretty big potential range, dep...
by ERMD
Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 8264

what's your number?? (for married couples)

when trying to calculate our "number" for retirement, i get wildly different answers from half a dozen different calculators, ranging from 3.5mil to 15mil. i know that this depends on many variables, including desired monthly retirement income, geography, and single vs married vs no kids vs 5 kids e...
by ERMD
Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you tilt? If so, how?
Replies: 44
Views: 5761

Re: Do you tilt? If so, how?

i'm surprised about the degree to which people are favoring small caps and a mid/bottom weighted m* box.
i'm

22 - 21 - 21
07 - 07 - 09
05 - 05 - 04

and i thought that was a stretch, but i guess not. although honestly, at a certain point, you can't really call it tilting anymore.
by ERMD
Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Basic ETFs question
Replies: 12
Views: 829

Re: Basic ETFs question

got it. sounds like i should just buy and hold admiral shares of total stock and bond funds when i'm eligible and leave it at that. thanks guys!
by ERMD
Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Basic ETFs question
Replies: 12
Views: 829

Basic ETFs question

hi all - i've read the ETFs sections of the wiki several times but still find myself somewhat confused about ETFs. specifically, if a person is a pure buy-and-hold, 3-fund portfolio, rebalance once a year or so kind of guy (or gal), it seems like the only advantage of ETFs over mutual funds is that ...
by ERMD
Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you tilt? If so, how?
Replies: 44
Views: 5761

Do you tilt? If so, how?

And which funds do you use? I currently split my domestic equities allocation (33% of my portfolio) 50/50 between a Vanguard S&P fund and the Vanguard Extended Market index (VIIIX and VIEIX). I'm curious if there are people out there who hold an otherwise traditional 33%/33%/33% domestic equities/in...
by ERMD
Tue Jan 07, 2014 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1M in debt
Replies: 49
Views: 17503

Re: $1M in debt

Guys, thanks for the tremendous replies. About the house - we live in a major metropolitan area and it's much more modest than you'd think. We also wanted to take advantage of record low mortgage rates. We put 10% down and don't pay PMI. The money came from an inheritance, and while it could have go...
by ERMD
Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1M in debt
Replies: 49
Views: 17503

Re: $1M in debt

How much do you stand to have forgiven? This is generally the difference between the payments you made as a resident and the "full" 10 year amortized payments for those years. If my math is correct, the difference between 10 years of IBR payments and 10 years of standard payments is about 400,000.
by ERMD
Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1M in debt
Replies: 49
Views: 17503

Re: $1M in debt

Thanks for the input. The loans are consolidated as direct loans, we're paying under IBR, and believe it or not, we're both currently working for 503 organizations, thus potentially eligible for PSLF in 6(me)/9(her) years. I should have mentioned this above.
by ERMD
Mon Jan 06, 2014 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1M in debt
Replies: 49
Views: 17503

$1M in debt

Without getting into too much personal detail, suppose one has approximately one million dollars in debt: Student Loans: 530,000 at 7.25% (plus uncapitalized interest of 50,000) Mortgage: 418,000 at 4.125% Joint income: 430,000 with one newborn child / 35% federal bracket, 6% state income tax. I und...
by ERMD
Mon Jan 06, 2014 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 403b investment options change
Replies: 15
Views: 1524

Re: 403b investment options change

Look at those expense ratios.. holy cow. Having a 403b with predominantly Vanguard funds spoils one's outlook.
by ERMD
Tue Dec 31, 2013 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

Leave it to livesoft to spot the obvious. VIEIX is not just "a mid cap fund". It is the Extended Market Fund. It contains all the stuff that is not in the 500 index and is the natural partner to the 500 index. 80% 500 Index plus 20% Extended Market equals the total stock market. (Not sure how you g...
by ERMD
Tue Dec 31, 2013 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: College savings for a high-income household
Replies: 46
Views: 6389

Re: College savings for a high-income household

letsgobobby wrote:The OP said he wanted to pay for 100% of college, not 100% of college but only at public schools. There is no way a private university will cost $300k in 20 years.
Actually, he said he wanted to fund 100% of their college education, not fund their education at 100% of available colleges. :happy
by ERMD
Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

Only VIIIX (large cap) and VIEIX (mid-cap blend.) VIEIX is extended market index. I used extended market index in my 401(k) until I had to rebalance out of small/mid caps. It is much more than a mid-cap fund. If I wasn't using equal parts large-cap and small-cap-value, then I would be using equal p...
by ERMD
Mon Dec 30, 2013 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: College savings for a high-income household
Replies: 46
Views: 6389

Re: College savings for a high-income household

$300,000 in 20 years? Are you smoking the soon to be legal intoxicant a little prematurely? My alma mater costs $265,000. Today . Try $500k per child in 18-20 years. It could be $600,000 for rich blokes like you. I am not joking. While your point is well taken, four years of tuition for my wife at ...
by ERMD
Mon Dec 30, 2013 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

It is probably a pseudo three fund portfolio wherein one of the funds involves an extra layer of rebalancing to mimic its total fund counterpart. You will most likely achieve a higher long term return at the cost of a slight increase in volatility. It does beg the question of where and when does th...
by ERMD
Mon Dec 30, 2013 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

Unfortunately, total stock market fund isn't an option in my 403b. Only VIIIX (large cap) and VIEIX (mid-cap blend.) Remember that you don't have to make your complete TSM in the 403b. You can put extended market or small cap or whatever in a Roth or traditional IRA. It does seem odd to have a mid-...
by ERMD
Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

You are probably splitting hairs. The additional fund will result in a little more complexity in terms of rebalancing and tracking. Personally, I would select Total Stock Market Index Fund and stay the course. Unfortunately, total stock market fund isn't an option in my 403b. Only VIIIX (large cap)...
by ERMD
Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

If you are going to split up a US portfolio into large and small, a reasonable way to do it would be Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation and Tax-Managed Small-Cap. This might be slightly better than Total Stock Market if you are in a very high tax bracket; otherwise, the higher cost of the tax-managed...
by ERMD
Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

What are people's thoughts on splitting the domestic large cap portion of the 3 fund portfolio into equal parts large and mid cap blend? I wonder if you are confused about what the 3 fund portfolio actually is. The domestic portion is total stock market - which is large, mid, and small caps. There ...
by ERMD
Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

If you are going for cute, do yours one way and let your wife do hers the other. Report back in 30 years and let us know the winner. Note that I didn't say that you were to divvy up your wife's, as you apparently do currently. I've divvied it up this way on my and my wife's 403b Per her requests, I...
by ERMD
Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 3.5 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

The 3.5 Fund Portfolio

What are people's thoughts on splitting the domestic large cap portion of the 3 fund portfolio into equal parts large and mid cap blend? Spiritually a 3 funder, technically a 4 funder.. playfully, the 3.5. Needlessly complicated or a bit more dynamic? I've divvied it up this way on my and my wife's ...
by ERMD
Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Intentional Roth penalty over taxable account?
Replies: 4
Views: 440

Re: Intentional Roth penalty over taxable account?

BL wrote:There is no penalty on the amount you put in, only it's growth.

See http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Roth_IRA ... gency_fund in Wiki.
Very helpful - thank you!
by ERMD
Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Intentional Roth penalty over taxable account?
Replies: 4
Views: 440

Intentional Roth penalty over taxable account?

I'm sure the answer to the question is no, because otherwise people would do it all the time, but for curiosity's sake.. Let's say you're 30, and you know you're going to need to start drawing on funds by 40.. is there any advantage to putting money into a Roth, and then withdrawing it (+ penalty) i...
by ERMD
Fri Dec 27, 2013 5:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What Was Your Best Portfolio move in 2013
Replies: 125
Views: 11494

Re: What Was Your Best Portfolio move in 2013

As a newbie here, I'm afraid to ask, but isn't the topic of this thread antithetical to the whole Bogle philosophy? Isn't it about the discipline to not make moves? :)
by ERMD
Thu Dec 26, 2013 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Vanguard balance with limited options?
Replies: 2
Views: 431

Re: Good Vanguard balance with limited options?

I should also add that I can allocate to the middle cap VIEIX fund and diminish my allocation in bonds and international large caps to 20% each (to allow for 30% in VIEIX and 30% in VIIIX.) That would gave me 50% total large cap (30 US and 20 international) 30% mid cap, and 20% intermediate bonds.
by ERMD
Thu Dec 26, 2013 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Vanguard balance with limited options?
Replies: 2
Views: 431

Good Vanguard balance with limited options?

Hi all. Long time lurker, first time poster. I'm going with the asset allocation for dummies theory and am trying to diversify my 401k into three slices (early 30s, young doctor, clueless investor, this being my only investment vehicle at the moment.) Unfortunately, my preferential funds are not ava...