Search found 290 matches

by ERMD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backdoor Roth - why does it make me feel dirty?
Replies: 23
Views: 3708

Re: Backdoor Roth - why does it make me feel dirty?

people who advocate waiting a few days for the conversion are paranoid. the backdoor maneuver (now that sounds dirty) is not illegal, and converting the next day versus the next week has absolutely no bearing on public policy. you can call it a loophole. there are a million of them. get on board whi...
by ERMD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Continuing my CBS series on AA-value vs growth
Replies: 1
Views: 377

Re: Continuing my CBS series on AA-value vs growth

thanks for the article larry. but shhh. tilting is our little secret. :D
by ERMD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better considering these funds
Replies: 23
Views: 3583

Re: Why is index investing better considering these funds

that site recommends 20% canadian equities. is that recommendation currency-based? it seems a bit overzealous. should mexican investors hold 20% mexican equities?
by ERMD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The tell tale chart
Replies: 9
Views: 2170

Re: The only reliable forecast.

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Jack's reassuring forecast was: "This too shall pass away."

In my opinion, this is the only reliable forecast in bear and bull markets.

Best wishes.
Taylor
one of my grandfather's favorite sayings, and the natural corollary to "buy right and hold tight."
by ERMD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Tax Investing vs. Pre Tax Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 1782

Re: After Tax Investing vs. Pre Tax Investing

So in a 401(k), will my earnings be taxed at a capital gains/dividend rate or regular income rate? The above poster said SS and Medicare taxes are avoided which is reassuring. Earnings in a 401(k) are not taxed at all. the OP may be calling "earnings" what would better be termed "disbursements", wh...
by ERMD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why USA markets over other markets?
Replies: 8
Views: 823

Re: Why USA markets over other markets?

Hi all - One aspect of investing that I've noticed is that typically most people invest heavily in American markets (S&P 500 index, for example). Is there a reason why markets in other countries aren't as highly recommended? For example, a market index in Japan, UK, Singapore, China (as examples). ...
by ERMD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?
Replies: 21
Views: 2907

Re: What If Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?

i also withdraw my indignation last week when i posted this exact same question and was rebuffed that it comes up all the time.
by ERMD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Beginner's Guide to Irrational Behavior
Replies: 1
Views: 690

Re: A Beginner's Guide to Irrational Behavior

this forum would be a pretty good syllabus.
by ERMD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large capital gain this year
Replies: 81
Views: 6883

Re: Large capital gain this year

The index could go down 30% this year (it has happened before). Your 50 stocks could be down 40% in such a market. The point is that the portfolio is extremely highly correlated to the index, so while technically it's possible to out/under perform, let's just say it's not a risk. underperforming ma...
by ERMD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?
Replies: 21
Views: 2907

Re: What If Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?

should have called it: a wealth of common cents.
by ERMD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large capital gain this year
Replies: 81
Views: 6883

Re: Large capital gain this year

not to ask a dumb question, but how is this buying on margin? he's using the proceeds from selling real estate assets, free and clear. who is he borrowing from in this sceanrio?

(this sounds like a terrible idea, btw.)
by ERMD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excessive fees and dominated funds plague 401k plans
Replies: 17
Views: 1263

Re: excessive fees and dominated funds plague 401k plans

i'm one of the lucky ones - my 403(b), 457, and 529 plans all offer vanguard index funds. it's all i've ever known, and it's spoiled me to the extent that when i heard of retirement plans who's average ERs exceeded 1%, i was truly shocked. i can imagine how "the other half" lives, if high expense ra...
by ERMD
Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock pickers' market?
Replies: 19
Views: 1740

Re: Stock pickers' market?

if they want to actively manage your fund at 0.09%, then by all means.
by ERMD
Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market Investors Are Not Dumb
Replies: 11
Views: 4250

Re: Total Market Investors Are Not Dumb

at the end of the day, a smart betta is still just a fish.
by ERMD
Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 529 plans that bad? [White Coat Investor article]
Replies: 35
Views: 4197

Re: Is 529 plans that bad? [White Coat Investor article]

emergdoc is basically posting a worst-case 529 scenario. it's good to investigate these issues for yourself. my plan also happens to be excellent - low cost vanguard funds, coupled with a state income tax deduction. so for me, it's a no brainer. in another state, it might not be.
by ERMD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Extended market index er .14 versus small er .10
Replies: 11
Views: 1129

Re: Extended market index er .14 versus small er .10

I don't know why you should have an expectation of which of these should be cheaper at these very low expense ratios (another way of looking at the difference is 40 cents/$1000/yr). another way to look at it is, with a large retirement portfolio ($2.5m), it's $1,000 per year extra in fees. squabbli...
by ERMD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market Bond Fund vs Intermediate Term Fund
Replies: 47
Views: 12123

Re: Total Market Bond Fund vs Intermediate Term Fund

it seems people have a lot of reservations about VBMPX, and those reservations are not always the same (i.e. too much invested in corporate bonds vs. exactly the opposite.) but to echo what taylor wrote above, i keep vanguard total bond in my 3 fund portfolio for simplicity's sake -- set it and forg...
by ERMD
Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the Course has never been harder
Replies: 45
Views: 6530

Re: Staying the Course has never been harder

you can look at the historical data, 1926 to 2013. for 80/20: Average annual return - 9.6% Best year (1933) 45.4% Worst year (1931) –34.9% Years with a loss 23 of 88 for 100 stocks: Average annual return - 10.2% Best year (1933) 54.2% Worst year (1931) –43.1% Years with a loss 25 of 88 you have to d...
by ERMD
Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about 403(b) early retirement distribution
Replies: 7
Views: 583

Re: Question about 403(b) early retirement distribution

i get it. i guess i wasn't expecting it to be fair, i was just wondering what the reasoning was behind the rule, even theoretically.
by ERMD
Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about 403(b) early retirement distribution
Replies: 7
Views: 583

Question about 403(b) early retirement distribution

i see that one of the 72(t) exceptions is that you "separate from service" in or after the year in which you turn 55, allowing you to retire at 55 and take your 403(b) distributions without the 10% tax a full 4.5 years earlier than normal. my question: does the same exception apply if, say, you leav...
by ERMD
Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained
Replies: 22
Views: 3815

Re: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained

But what if everybody was a complete idiot, ignored their own self interest, and did it anyway so Emergency Room Medical Doctor's question could be answered? OK, I'll play. After several decades personal finance authors would conclude stock market returns are all but random from day to day, week to...
by ERMD
Thu Mar 06, 2014 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth/403b/401k Questions
Replies: 10
Views: 563

Re: Roth/403b/401k Questions

there is effectively no difference between a 401k and 403b, as you noted. my 403b has a dozen excellent vanguard index funds. the difference between a roth 403b and standard 403b is the same as the difference between a traditional IRA and roth IRA - pre-tax vs. after tax dollars. check the wiki for ...
by ERMD
Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained
Replies: 22
Views: 3815

Re: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained

this ties into something i mentioned in another thread.. if everyone woke up tomorrow a boglehead, and implemented a buy-and-hold index fund strategy, i feel like something terrible would happen, economically speaking. i have no evidence to support that though. And the answer is the same as always....
by ERMD
Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic International/Domestic Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1022

Re: Dynamic International/Domestic Allocation

Another nice feature is that this sort of strategy gives us a mechanical way for an investor to protect herself from the possibility of her own economy going through a Japan-like experience. A Japanese investor with a fundamental split between domestic and international would have been gradually mo...
by ERMD
Wed Mar 05, 2014 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained
Replies: 22
Views: 3815

Re: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained

this ties into something i mentioned in another thread.. if everyone woke up tomorrow a boglehead, and implemented a buy-and-hold index fund strategy, i feel like something terrible would happen, economically speaking. i have no evidence to support that though.
by ERMD
Wed Mar 05, 2014 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule is in trouble but rescue is on the way!
Replies: 14
Views: 2289

Re: The 4% rule is in trouble but rescue is on the way!

pay them a % for the pleasure of whispering into your ear: earn less, spend less. earn more, spend more.
by ERMD
Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: compounding
Replies: 7
Views: 637

Re: compounding

waa waaaaaaaaaaaa.
by ERMD
Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your stock/bond mix for those ~20 yrs from retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 4453

Re: Your stock/bond mix for those ~20 yrs from retirement

i'm about 25 out from retirement, but our IPS tells us 75/25 equities/bonds all the way up to retirement, then 2% adjustment towards bonds every year to a max of 50/50. a seemingly backwards approach, i know, starting on the conservative side of the average and ending on the liberal side, but i thin...
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity fraud
Replies: 12
Views: 2366

Re: Fidelity fraud

seems like it's easy to tell if you're being ripped off with actively managed funds. the words "actively managed" are the giveaway. :happy
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: More Efficient Emergency Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 3931

Re: More Efficient Emergency Fund

TPayne17 wrote:I have about $5,500 in my emergency fund that is sitting in Capital One 360 savings only earning .75%. This just bugs me!
yeahhhhh, bank of america is giving us <0.1% in our "money market" savings account. i don't know which market we're talking about. maybe boston market.
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get ready for the Dow at 6,000 by 2016: Pro
Replies: 46
Views: 7942

Re: Get ready for the Dow at 6,000 by 2016: Pro

claver wrote:I don't know why the business shows embarrass themselves by putting people like this on the air. CNBC does it, Blooomberg does it, and MarketWatch does it worst of all. I haven't watched FOX Business, so I don't know if they do it, but they probably do.
"if it bleeds, it leads"
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Vanguard Become Too Big?
Replies: 24
Views: 4775

Re: Can Vanguard Become Too Big?

i've wondered what would happen, economically, if everyone owned vanguard index funds tomorrow. doesn't the market depend on the gamblers to some extent? it's a pretty delicate ecosystem.
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: stayed out of the market, what to do now?
Replies: 64
Views: 10570

Re: stayed out of the market, what to do now?

get back in the market and stay there for the next 30 years.
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on my portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 1277

Re: Thoughts on my portfolio

I'm looking for some thoughts on my retirement portfolio. My current financial situation: I'm a 24 year old medical student with a military scholarship (so no loans). My wife is a nursing student with ~10k in loans. Our current income is ~25k. My roth-IRA currently has 14k in it. 10k in Vanguards S...
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get ready for the Dow at 6,000 by 2016: Pro
Replies: 46
Views: 7942

Re: Get ready for the Dow at 6,000 by 2016: Pro

"So this is it...we're all going to die!" Arthur Dent (Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy) said that, not Harry Dent. But Harry Dent could have. I suppose a major financial crisis could be set off if there's panic about a proposed hyperspace bypass in this vicinity. Though I'm not sure normal hedging...
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1186

Re: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?

livesoft wrote:See my signature.
it's actually about strategic, momentum-limited, market-adjusted redistributions of fairly-priced asset classes that are temporarily less fairly-priced than others.
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1186

Re: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?

i get it, but i figured, i'm talking about 100% buy and hold, and only with total market index funds.. i thought that would be kosher here. :happy also, i figured i'm smarter than most investors, so it would work out well. Though you might be smarter than most investors, you're probably not smarter...
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds??
Replies: 29
Views: 5686

Re: Why bonds??

I have VBMPX (total bond index) representing bonds in my portfolio (25% of AA overall). i like the simplicity of this approach, although i'm worried that the fund has too many corporate bonds (25% of holdings) and not enough treasuries (37% of holdings.) but, it's literally the only bond option in m...
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1186

Re: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?

i get it, but i figured, i'm talking about 100% buy and hold, and only with total market index funds.. i thought that would be kosher here. :happy

also, i figured i'm smarter than most investors, so it would work out well.
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1186

Re: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?

i'm not sure if this qualifies as "market timing". i'm not buying into stocks because i think they're taking off; i'm buying into stocks because i think they're sinking, looking 20+ years down the road. actually, i thought that was kind of the opposite of market timing.
by ERMD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1186

how do you take advantage of a downturn in your 401(k)?

just curious, as many gloomy gus pundits are predicting another significant downswing in equities the next few years. i was thinking that if that occurs, i would buy more stocks by temporarily allocating 100% of future contributions to my total market index funds (say for a month or two), without re...
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:51 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: You know you're a Boglehead when ...
Replies: 121
Views: 28213

Re: You know you're a Boglehead when ...

When you get the last post in before LadyGeek locks the thread for being off-topic!
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Price of Outperformance
Replies: 35
Views: 4811

Re: The Price of Outperformance

ASUGrad wrote:You are looking for a needle in a haystack and every year it might be a different needle. You also need multiple funds to build a portfolio so now we are talking about multiple needles in multiple haystacks.
"forget the needle - buy the haystack." -- johnny boges
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

For me, I realize there's a slight drag (less than 1%) with investing in taxable over investing in a 529. However, I feel the small trade-off is worth it because I'll be able to retire earlier and my children will be eligible for more financial aid with a smaller 529 account. i make the same assump...
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

Some questions to ask for the big 529 contributors: Are you currently maxing all of your tax-advantage space? Does your state offer a tax break on 529 contributions? Are you debt free? Are you financially independent? Since I don't get a 529 tax-break, I feel that I shouldn't contribute anything to...
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

also note again that my assumptions are based on 7% returns. if it's closer to 4%, which people smarter than i are suggesting, then even my "ridiculous" 500 a month is worth only 160k in 18 years.
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

Unrealistic and out of touch with yesterday's today's and tomorrow's economic enviornment. But continue along the philosophical belief that trees grow to the sky forever, as will your retirement plan and home prices. The key to continued tuition inflation is the same as that of the housing market -...
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 3842

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

ERMD Thanks for sharing. I ran a similar analysis and came up with similar results for education starting roughly 10 years from now. Can you share the 2013/2014 cost to attend for each class of university in your model? I think it would be helpful to give the readers a sense of today's cost. Thanks...
by ERMD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if Henry Blodget is right about the stock market?
Replies: 47
Views: 5426

Re: What if Henry Blodget is right about the stock market?

I used to think the same thing but after reading a little more I don't know that there's any guarantee that the market would ever rebound from another devastating crash. Other countries have suffered financial apocalypse from which they never recovered. if that's the case, you're screwed no matter ...