Search found 1207 matches

by goblue100
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”
Replies: 169
Views: 14380

Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

I have two comma's, and even after the carnage of the last two weeks, I still do. I am not rejoicing, but I'm not crying either. I'm resigned to the fact that people are panicked and this thing will need to play out. I feel like it won't be much longer, but who knows. What I did learn is that my 60/...
by goblue100
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best concert you ever witnessed?
Replies: 385
Views: 27759

Re: What is the best concert you ever witnessed?

I don't go to a lot of concerts, but I just attended the all time best for me. I went and saw the Eagles "Hotel California" tour. They play the Hotel California album track list and then in the words of Don Henley, came back and played every other song they knew. I wish I had seen them when Glen Fre...
by goblue100
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 511
Views: 45778

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

I don't know whether to believe some of these responses. I'm much younger than most of you and have been buying into this nearly-bear market. But I would not say that I'm emotionally zen at all. I experience some fear when looking at the dollar value drops of my portfolio. And I experience even mor...
by goblue100
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682633

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Do you mean those just retired early, or those planning to retire early soon. I fall in the second group. I am doing nothing different. I have taken steep losses. Very steep. So be it. I am considering retirement in 2021 at 60. So a little early. I'm actually a little encouraged this is happening n...
by goblue100
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682633

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What is happening to the early retirement crowd ? Anyone keeping tabs ? Do you mean those just retired early, or those planning to retire early soon. I fall in the second group. I am doing nothing different. I have taken steep losses. Very steep. So be it. I am considering retirement in 2021 at 60....
by goblue100
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement Fund - When Does it Shift?
Replies: 6
Views: 708

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Fund - When Does it Shift?

https://institutional.vanguard.com/web/ ... /fund/1669

Halfway down the page under glidepath and asset allocation. Looks like it starts about now, but pretty slowly.
by goblue100
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil ETF VDE
Replies: 26
Views: 2402

Re: Oil ETF VDE

Well, if it was a buy at 59 on Friday, it is a better buy today at 46...
I've held VDE for a long time. I bought some more today. In for a penny, in for a pound.
by goblue100
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)
Replies: 254
Views: 48873

Re: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)

I am also following this with interest. The recent market unpleasantness should add some interesting data points to this forward test. Its all fun and games till a pandemic breaks out.
by goblue100
Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 122935

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Question. If you had a choice, which would you prefer? A. Stocks go up, by quite a lot, and stay up for several years. B. Stocks go down, by quite a lot, and stay down for several years. Answer, if you picked A, you are like 90% of investors who answered the question. But, unless you are selling st...
by goblue100
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 122935

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Question. If you had a choice, which would you prefer? A. Stocks go up, by quite a lot, and stay up for several years. B. Stocks go down, by quite a lot, and stay down for several years. Answer, if you picked A, you are like 90% of investors who answered the question. But, unless you are selling sto...
by goblue100
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 122935

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

BlueEars wrote: The lack of civility exhibited in this thread is simply amazing to me. I think Will made the right decision for his peace of mind by signing off from this thread. I agree. It's fine to express differences of opinion and points of view but when it edges toward a personal attack, I th...
by goblue100
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6640
Views: 558606

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

People still have immune systems, right? I feel like the market is pricing in certain death for everyone that gets sick. I think the market is more focused on the empty airports/flights, cancelled events, closed offices, etc. and even still, I don’t think it has come close to pricing in all the los...
by goblue100
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6640
Views: 558606

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

People still have immune systems, right? I feel like the market is pricing in certain death for everyone that gets sick.
by goblue100
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Okay, now when you do buy back in?
Replies: 230
Views: 21699

Re: Okay, now when you do buy back in?

SchruteB&B wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:06 pm
goblue100 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:55 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:39 pm

Do you have a plan?
My plan is to wait for a month of increases and then say I bought back in at the low a month earlier.
:D. This made me genuinely laugh out loud.
Glad to make someone happy. My actual plan has been and will continue to be to stay my 60/40 course.
by goblue100
Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Okay, now when you do buy back in?
Replies: 230
Views: 21699

Re: Okay, now when you do buy back in?

HomerJ wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:39 pm

Do you have a plan?
My plan is to wait for a month of increases and then say I bought back in at the low a month earlier.
by goblue100
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 122935

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

First of all, thank you to those who have expressed appreciation for my posts in this thread. They are deeply appreciated. I anticipated a backlash as a response to my recent move, but this is just too much. Before my recent 'pause' to my trend following strategy, I seriously considered abandoning ...
by goblue100
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help!! The 4% SWR in real life....
Replies: 23
Views: 2893

Re: Help!! The 4% SWR in real life....

I had initially planned on using the managed payout fund, but I have become discouraged with it due to a number of factors. I also want to keep on using broad index funds, and mostly a 4 to 5 fund portfolio. Thanks in advance! Apparently the managed payout fund people got discouraged as well, as th...
by goblue100
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 122935

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Seems like a typical trend follower, market timing post. "I have this super technical method with all these indicators" and in the end you went by a feeling. Obviously it's your money and you can do what you want, but it seems you were "selling" something you can't deliver. And not posting your move...
by goblue100
Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 305854

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Good to know ... on top of the fact 80% of its “victims” barely even know they have it 80% huh? Since you're looking to educate folks here, can you cite the data on that, please? https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/worried-you-have-coronavirus-here-s-exactly-what-you-should-n1146996 The one ...
by goblue100
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 25988

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

I'm staying the course. My 401k contribution went in Friday. I sent in my wife's 2020 Roth contribution on Friday as well. From what I can see, those who are bailing out think they can do better, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. But then, there are flat earthers and anti-vaccine believ...
by goblue100
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash out of Whole Life???
Replies: 7
Views: 483

Re: Cash out of Whole Life???

I have a $500k whole life policy that has about $30k of cash value. the premiums are $700/mo. I've been told I should close the policy, take the $30k cash value and invest it in 50% S&P index fund and 50% total market bond fund. and then use the $700/mo to buy a $500k term policy ($60/mo) and inves...
by goblue100
Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16491

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

I really really do genuinely believe it. But the point is that no market ever went up or down because I thought it would. And, most fundamentally, I know enough to know with a good degree of confidence that I don’t know what I don’t know. That is internally inconsistent. If you "believe" but allow ...
by goblue100
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16491

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

Everything is obvious in hindsight. To get market returns, you must be in the market and take the bad with the good. It's really that simple. We have all at one time or another, thought, "Well, if I could have just avoided that decline, think how good my return would be!" But there are all sorts of ...
by goblue100
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard managed payout fund
Replies: 26
Views: 4786

Re: vanguard managed payout fund

Vanguard has ended the managed payout portion of this fund. It is going to become the Vanguard Managed Allocation fund. https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-throws-in-the-towel-on-its-managed-payout-fund-51582939988 https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/vanguardmodifiesmanagedpayoutfun...
by goblue100
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Couch potato 60\40 in a down market
Replies: 34
Views: 4331

Re: Couch potato 60\40 in a down market

Well, I'm still invested and didn't sell anything. LOL, thanks for talking me down off the ledge. I read a lot about the Couch Potato portfolio and most all of what I read made sense - the CP's historical returns were better than I would have made with my former money manager, I liked not paying an...
by goblue100
Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107875

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Carmen1409 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:49 pm
goblue100 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 am
Hustlinghustling wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:28 pm
going just as planned?
He is back to even. The S&p 500 price when the the thread started was 3334.69. The close yesterday was 3337.75. I wouldn't call it a win, yet, anyway.
2,954.22 today. What would you call it now?
A small win? Let me know when he buys back in.
by goblue100
Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Couch potato 60\40 in a down market
Replies: 34
Views: 4331

Re: Couch potato 60\40 in a down market

And read this: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/personal-finance/2020/02/28/scott-burns-dont-just-do-something-sit-there/?utm_source=pushly "This is one of those times when absolute passivity pays off. And it pays off for different reasons, depending on whether you’re young or old. This is not a ...
by goblue100
Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 511
Views: 45778

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

I think this fits here:
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/per ... rce=pushly

Scott Burns says don't just do something, stand there. Or sit there.
by goblue100
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 511
Views: 45778

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

On a more positive note, I had not made my wifes 2020 Roth contribution. Not from any great foresight, mainly through inattention and inertia. So that got mailed today.
by goblue100
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Couch potato 60\40 in a down market
Replies: 34
Views: 4331

Re: Couch potato 60\40 in a down market

I don't buy in to the idea that "it's only a loss on paper if ya sell" belief - it's a loss if it's worth less than I paid. At my age, I am more attracted to the idea of mitigating further losses by selling than incurring additional losses by sitting tight. AND I've already lost more with VTI than ...
by goblue100
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 511
Views: 45778

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

For those looking to buy something at 2009 prices, VDE is your jam. It is in my portfolio, and it is way down. If the three fund folks are panicking in the other threads, they should own a little VDE, lol. However, I am remaining calm and will actually buy more VDE today. Sorry, VDE is Vanguard ener...
by goblue100
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 511
Views: 45778

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:31 am
Ztx wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:05 am
100% stocks allocation. Staying the course!
--Edward Smith
Your post wasn't very funny, so I added the part in bold.
I had to Google who Edward Smith was. I have to admit, it made the post much funnier!

My cat is sick, I'm more worried about that then Coronavirus.
by goblue100
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona virus, stock market gyrations & Jack Bogle
Replies: 41
Views: 3189

Re: Corona virus, stock market gyrations & Jack Bogle

In a few years, the coronavirus will be a pimple on the butt of an elephant looking at the stock market chart. You can see the future? Wow! Just as well as you can. In a worst-case scenario, we are probably looking at tens of millions of deaths worldwide, supply chain problems for virtually all man...
by goblue100
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 1500
Views: 199400

Re: Our mortgage is GONE!

Congratulations :D Congratulations. Thanks! We woke up this morning for the first time as real home owners , not just buyers, and it felt good. Congrats! I also paid off my house recently (end of December), and it does feel good. And based on events of the last 3 days, happy not to have that money ...
by goblue100
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona virus, stock market gyrations & Jack Bogle
Replies: 41
Views: 3189

Re: Corona virus, stock market gyrations & Jack Bogle

We aren't all going to die, but a stock market decline of 50% or more is certainly possible. Here are some data points to consider: - car sales are down 92% in China https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/21/china-car-sales-tumble-by-92-per-cent-as-coronavirus-takes-toll-on-industry - dramat...
by goblue100
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 25261

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

Just to restate what I actually said in my original post, here's the specific sentence you're referring to: "I'm not asking you for your opinion (or John Bogle's opinion) on whether or not my fears are irrational." So, to be clear, I was *NOT*, and am *NOT*, asking if anyone thinks that my fears ar...
by goblue100
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job interview question: how do I explain wanting to leave my current job so soon?
Replies: 34
Views: 4039

Re: Job interview question: how do I explain wanting to leave my current job so soon?

Q: Why are you looking for a new job? A: My current company operates in some ways I find unethical. I feel uncomfortable being a part of an organization that engages in that type of behavior, and I know that for me a 'long term fit' requires belief in the company I'm a part of & the products we're ...
by goblue100
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?
Replies: 327
Views: 22450

Re: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?

Nothing yet. I'm fairly confident that I have the fortitude to hold my stock-heavy portfolio through an actual downturn, but I haven't experienced one yet. This two-day blip isn't one either. Nope, it's not. That is what I remember about 2008/09. Every time you thought it was over, it wasn't. I rea...
by goblue100
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?
Replies: 327
Views: 22450

Re: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?

What I learned: bogleheads.org disappointed me. I'm disappointed with the hysteria and drama of a few bad days that I have to sift through to find more calm/measured discussions that teach me finance/investing. The facade of "stay the course" appears to be just that, a facade for many, and I'm not ...
by goblue100
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107875

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

If he comes out a few % ahead at the end of March, I don't think that proves anything. If I run a red light and don't get a ticket or in an accident that doesn't prove anything. You averted a disaster one time for a small gain. It doesn't mean what you did was the correct thing to do. But if it wen...
by goblue100
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107875

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Hustlinghustling wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:28 pm
going just as planned?
He is back to even. The S&p 500 price when the the thread started was 3334.69. The close yesterday was 3337.75. I wouldn't call it a win, yet, anyway.
by goblue100
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682633

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:53 am
lostdog wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:50 am
Warren Buffet this morning said to chill. :beer
That said, people need to remember Buffet invests based on a 20-30 year time horizon.
Pretty far sighted for an 89 year old.
by goblue100
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?
Replies: 50
Views: 5943

Re: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?

I found this to be an interesting question, but I don't think I will ever get there. Right now my net worth is about 65% of my lifetime earnings. I probably didn't save enough in my early years. We thought 6% with a 3% company match would be enough.
by goblue100
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing money for the next 6 years
Replies: 34
Views: 4289

Re: Investing money for the next 6 years

Any recommendations for a good vanguard fund to invest money that I will need within 6 years from now? I can't afford to lose more than 30% of my money. This is for a taxable account. Thanks. Very simple: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/lifestrategy/#/ Look at the life strategy funds. Va...
by goblue100
Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682633

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:57 am
rascott wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:55 am
vipertom1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:53 am
Brace your self for a rough ride and good luck to young or new investors that did not experience 2000 and 2008 mess.
LOL
Good thing BH aren't prone to hyperbole.
Oh, the humanity!
by goblue100
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).
Replies: 273
Views: 18907

Re: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).

Everything in CDs even at today's rates would suffice. No? Are CDs yielding 1.33% real? That would mean inflation + 1.33. Assuming inflation of 2-3%, that would mean a CD rate of 3.33 - 4.33%. I don't know of any that high. I bought a large multi-year CD in that range back in December 2018 betting ...
by goblue100
Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New member: Is 85% S&P 500 index stupid?
Replies: 48
Views: 4763

Re: New member: Is 85% S&P 500 index stupid?

I don't think 85% equities is out of line. Since no one else posted it, I'll link the FAQ: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation I'll quote a little of it, but there is more there that is worth reading: How much in bonds? How much in Stocks? That's the basic question of asset allocation. ...
by goblue100
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often should I rebalance into Brokeragelink?
Replies: 19
Views: 1229

Re: How often should I rebalance into Brokeragelink?

I'm far from an expert, but it sure seems to me that your company is violating their Fiduciary responsibility by forcing you to put 50% of your money into their stock. Does that requirement exist no matter how large the balance? I think you misunderstood. The plan is requiring that 50% of the asset...
by goblue100
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fidelity landing page - accounts randomly missing
Replies: 37
Views: 2114

Re: Fidelity landing page - accounts randomly missing

Just for clarity, here is the actual message I received: Dear Goblue100: Thank you for contacting Fidelity about our Web site. I can certainly help alleviate your concerns. Our Web site is currently experiencing some technical issues. Balances and accounts may not be showing online and you may not b...
by goblue100
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fidelity landing page - accounts randomly missing
Replies: 37
Views: 2114

Re: Fidelity landing page - accounts randomly missing

I can confirm that I'm having issues with my brokerage link account not showing. I sent them a message and they confirmed that they are having website problems and to bear with them while they get it fixed.