Search found 4282 matches

by JoMoney
Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925
Replies: 29
Views: 1633

Re: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925

If you're looking at the Shiller data, his data 'interpolates' price and dividend data into an 'average' for each month, but that doesn't mean daily data wasn't available.
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925
Replies: 29
Views: 1633

Re: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925

Note that a lot of the historical data was interpolated to fill the blanks. For a while, only quarterly numbers were recorded, as a case in point. I don't think that's true, that it was "interpolated to fill in blanks". Standard Statistics started the first stock composite index in 1923 and updated...
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925
Replies: 29
Views: 1633

Re: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925

http://phantaris.com/how-is-the-sp-500-calculated ... There are four different total-return indices for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index: 1936, 1970, 1988, and year-to-date. Each one uses a different base period. The 1936 and 1970 total return indices were developed for historical use. Dividends are...
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925
Replies: 29
Views: 1633

Re: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925

Note that a lot of the historical data was interpolated to fill the blanks. For a while, only quarterly numbers were recorded, as a case in point. I don't think that's true, that it was "interpolated to fill in blanks". Standard Statistics started the first stock composite index in 1923 and updated...
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 12096

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

^exactly... If he thinks hedge-funds are the Chicago Bears it was idiotic to to accept a challenge to play basketball against the Chicago Bulls. Seides was the one who said: "Through a cycle, nevertheless, top hedge fund managers have surpassed market returns net of all fees, while assuming less ris...
by JoMoney
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 12096

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

A lot of very smug passive investors are going to learn when they look back at the beach that since the crash the one set of footprints they see are those of the central bankers that have carried them. Maybe... but I've heard similar cynical claims all my life. The uncritical optimists, and methodi...
by JoMoney
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard advisor on dividends
Replies: 71
Views: 7554

Re: Vanguard advisor on dividends

... I went into investing (from day #1) how am I going to get the money out & support myself over the very long term. ... I had the same consideration, which is what lead me to giving up my individual stock portfolio and into low cost broad market index fund. Too many opportunities for unforced err...
by JoMoney
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Total Stock Market vs. Extended Market?
Replies: 20
Views: 3233

Re: Why Total Stock Market vs. Extended Market?

Over the past 20 year period Total Stock Market had a higher return than S&P500 with the same "risk adjusted return" (Sharpe ratio), and a higher Sharpe than the extended market. PV Link That's a great argument, and thank you for the link. Although, as you pointed out, different periods have differ...
by JoMoney
Sun Sep 10, 2017 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Total Stock Market vs. Extended Market?
Replies: 20
Views: 3233

Re: Why Total Stock Market vs. Extended Market?

I like the S&P 500 fund and use it, but if you follow the 'portfolio theory' line consider: Over the past 20 year period Total Stock Market had a higher return than S&P500 with the same "risk adjusted return" (Sharpe ratio), and a higher Sharpe than the extended market. PV Link Results vary slightly...
by JoMoney
Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Two Factor Authentication and One Time Passwords
Replies: 24
Views: 1980

Re: Two Factor Authentication and One Time Passwords

Also, my suggestion is don't take Mr. Bogle's rule about "don't peek" too literally. For multiple reasons, you really should regularly check your account and statements. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/SecurityOnlineFraudPledgeContent.jsp Your responsibilities At a minimum, in order for this p...
by JoMoney
Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett's Long Bet
Replies: 60
Views: 11643

Re: Warren Buffett's Long Bet

Image
I find it interesting, that long-term bonds would have actually performed better over this time period... but who knew then?
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Instead of a credit freeze, I want to receive a phone call before credit is opened in my name.
Replies: 26
Views: 2705

Re: Instead of a credit freeze, I want to receive a phone call before credit is opened in my name.

I'm concerned about the recent data breach, but I've had this question for a while anyway: Instead of freezing my credit, I'd like to set things up so that before anyone opens up credit in my name, I would receive a call on my cell phone asking me if I had indeed approved such a thing. This sounds ...
by JoMoney
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do ETF's present a systemic risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 5260

Re: Do ETF's present a systemic risk?

ETF's provide a misleading sense of liquidity. If the bottom falls out of a market, you may not be able to rely on the 'authorized' intermediaries to step in and ensure the ETF is trading on par with 'net asset value' of the fund. If the spreads between NAV and the underlying assets get large enough...
by JoMoney
Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking at shares rather than dollars?
Replies: 10
Views: 1228

Re: Looking at shares rather than dollars?

I think it would be misleading, because what shares a fund owns are constantly changing, and the shares outstanding of an individual company can/do frequently change from buy-backs and new issues. Another idea... if you want a more stable number to look at, maybe tracking the "book value" of your as...
by JoMoney
Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Historical US Stock Market Allocation Among Market Caps
Replies: 5
Views: 578

Re: Historical US Stock Market Allocation Among Market Caps

I know the 'top ten' stocks used to make up substantially larger amount of the market in the past. John Bogle has some speeches where he shows the relative size of largest large-caps in the past. You can find Vanguard annual reports going back the 1990's to find that, and even looking at the median ...
by JoMoney
Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old were you when you got your first credit card?
Replies: 46
Views: 2008

Re: How old were you when you got your first credit card?

18
The day after my birthday I went to the community bank where my parents held an account in my name, had it transferred to my name, and opened a Visa card with them, they made the credit limit very small but that was enough to begin establishing credit/credit history.
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Wall Street Journal to close Google loophole entirely
Replies: 153
Views: 24347

Re: The Wall Street Journal to close Google loophole entirely

I find having a bookmark of the script triceratop mentioned below easiest, but I'll point out that you can also read articles by archiving them through http://archive.is/ It also makes it easier to link to the archived version if you want to share it with someone else / post it. For example, the pay...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would you DCA from S&P 500 to TSM?
Replies: 13
Views: 1184

Re: Would you DCA from S&P 500 to TSM?

If I was making a big 'style' change, I would consider DCA... but moving from S&P500 to TSM? They are very very close to the same thing, I would do that as a single move and not think twice about it.
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bad Idea to Have Zero Credit Cards?
Replies: 129
Views: 6177

Re: Bad Idea to Have Zero Credit Cards?

Like it or not....
Having an active credit file is important for all sorts of identification purposes.
Renting a car with a debit card can be very difficult.
Fraud protections on credit cards are superior to debit cards, if there is a dispute it's not you fighting to get your money back.
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My experience with buying from Hertz
Replies: 15
Views: 2204

Re: My experience with buying from Hertz

I'm surprised they let you use a personal check at all. From the FAQ on their web page: https://www.hertzcarsales.com/FAQ/ Q: Can I use my credit or debit card to purchase the vehicle? A: No, you can't use a credit or debit card to purchase the vehicle. However, we provide financing solutions for al...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4379

Re: Small-Cap Value has higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

Over the past 3,5,10, and 15 year period(s) DFSVX which is typically pointed to as the premier 'Small-Cap Value' fund has had a lower Sharpe Ratio indicating higher risk and lower risk-adjusted returns using the traditional measurements http://i.imgs.fyi/img/19lg.jpg The whole idea of factor investi...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rejected By Two Banks For an On-Line Savings Account….why?
Replies: 24
Views: 3471

Re: Rejected By Two Banks For an On-Line Savings Account….why?

Catch 22 ... bank wont establish an account if they can't "verify" your personal data in the system (credit reports etc..) ... you can't create a credit file without open accounts.

To err is human but to really foul things up you need a computer...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank not responsible for money stolen by online hackers.
Replies: 13
Views: 3235

Re: Bank not responsible for money stolen by online hackers.

As others have said, consumer protections aren't applicable to business accounts. The Uniform Commercial Code puts the liability on the entity in the best position to stop the fraud from happening, and tends to put the onus on the business account holder to show they've taken every precaution in pro...
by JoMoney
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are US S&P 500 Index funds speculative investments?
Replies: 63
Views: 4423

Re: Are US S&P 500 Index funds speculative investments?

Sometimes stocks will turn out to be over priced, sometimes stocks will turn out to be under-priced... most of the time they'll be priced right where they should be...
If you average in over time, average out in the future, you'll get something close to the average over your investing time period.
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans To Launch Total Corporate Bond ETF
Replies: 41
Views: 6302

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans To Launch Total Corporate Bond ETF

" The fund will be structured as an ETF of ETFs, investing directly in three existing, low-cost ETFs: Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT). " Weird. I would think one of the advantages o...
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I own no international stocks. Can you guess why?
Replies: 167
Views: 13587

Re: I own no international stocks. Can you guess why?

Because you no longer own stocks? I have never owned international, so to me this is not an odd question. Can't wait for the big reveal!! :thumbsup That was my thought as well. I've never had a international "allocation", and haven't owned any ex-US/S&P500 stocks since I started indexing. Buffett a...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism
Replies: 44
Views: 4287

Re: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism

...Why do you believe only a very small proportion of investors need to be active for price discovery to work? Do you have any supporting evidence? Mr. Bogle has suggested that what indexing does, is neutralizes part of the market that no longer gets actively traded. He points to the fact that volu...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here is a criticisim of active management I don't get
Replies: 24
Views: 2419

Re: Here is a criticisim of active management I don't get

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/active-large-cap-hot-streak-doesnt-add?nopaging=1 If I am an active manager who does not pick stocks as well as the best stock picker but am smart enough to in 2017 invest some percentage of my fund in european stocks that are doing well why should ...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Might Bogle View Proxy Vote Prop 7? Here's a Hint.
Replies: 9
Views: 2604

Re: How Might Bogle View Proxy Vote Prop 7? Here's a Hint.

There are already "Socially Responsible" index funds, trying to change a fund that doesn't have that objective is ridiculous. The people who want that should switch to a fund that meets their objectives.
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Formula
Replies: 6
Views: 1052

Re: Magic Formula

It's been discussed on this board before if you search. At the end of 2010 the creator of the 'Magic Formula' created some mutual funds around the idea http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T041-C007-S001--magic-formula-investing-conjures-up-4-new-stock-f.html Formula Investing U.S. Value Selec...
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SP500/Total Stock Market
Replies: 23
Views: 1618

Re: SP500/Total Stock Market

For a longer data series on Monringstar, here's some links: Ibbotson Associates US Large Stocks (S&P 500) since 1925 Ibbotson Associates US Large Stocks (S&P 500) INFLATION ADJUSTED since 1925 Wilshire 5000 (Total Stock Market) & S&P 500 Total Return since 1970 S&P 500 (1936) Series (There are a cou...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real P/E of ETF's and Mutual Funds - are the published ones misleading
Replies: 26
Views: 1556

Re: Real P/E of ETF's and Mutual Funds - are the published ones misleading

FWIW, There's an old WSJ article that also confirms the idea that Vanguard's methodology includes negative earnings http://archive.is/IcnyG ... Yet even the inclusion of unprofitable companies doesn't guarantee that ETF providers will come up with the same P/E for their funds as might be calculated ...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "3 Reasons Index Investors Deserve Perdition (or Not)"
Replies: 3
Views: 859

Re: "3 Reasons Index Investors Deserve Perdition (or Not)"

Hah.. :D
"Verdict: Not guilty. If indexers are to burn, this will not be the sin that sparks the blaze."
Thank's for posting.
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 56
Views: 5765

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

It's hard for an index investor to "stay the course" tracking an index when the mutual fund company won't stop monkeying with what index their fund is going to track. At least with this change, it's towards better quality/safety, and if some people want the higher risk stuff they can mix it in to th...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund rated BBB credit quality?
Replies: 32
Views: 2763

Re: Why is VANGUARD SHORT TERM TREASURY fund rated BBB credit quality?

FWIW, Vanguards ratings aren't their own, but that of major ratings agencies as describe in the annual reports Vanguard files with SEC Credit-quality ratings are obtained from Barclays and are from Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. When ratings from all three agencies are used, the median rating is shown. Wh...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 112
Views: 9723

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Despite all the hype of how well a dividend based portfolio strategy would have performed, I'll point out that there are real world funds like Vanguard (and FIdelity) Equity Income Funds, and Vanguard's Dividend Growth fund, which haven't had such spectacular results and have decades of history to l...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Short-term investment option?
Replies: 12
Views: 1043

Re: What Short-term investment option?

Personally, if liquidity was a concern, I would be leery of the corporate bonds/investment-grade fund. Certainly it would be better than a junk bond fund, but it could still have issues. Here's a link to a Morningstar Chart of what happened in the 2008-2009 period when liquidity dried up on corporat...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World’s Largest Companies - Revenue vs. Market Cap
Replies: 6
Views: 699

Re: World’s Largest Companies - Revenue vs. Market Cap

I think you're mixing up a lot of things trying to contrast in this way. Revenue is not profit, and Vanguard Index funds are float adjusted which makes a big difference when looking at how much weight is put on a company which may be mostly owned by the state or private, but may have some fraction a...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morning Wave's Telltale Charts
Replies: 5
Views: 897

Re: Morning Wave's Telltale Charts

bertilak wrote:...How is that site working for you?
It's not.
:confused
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 9571

Re: When does renting make sense

You will spend more on your housing expense when you buy a house. KlangFool [Citation needed] Here's one.... ...Housing expenditures remained markedly different for homeowners and renters. Homeowners continued to spend a larger sum of money on housing than renters did; however, renters spent a larg...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8860

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Mr. Buffett has offered his sage advice with a crystal clear plan for what most investors should do, and trying to time the market isn't part of it. Average your contributions over time, invest in a low-cost broad average like the S&P 500/Total Stock Market, and you'll do much better than those tryi...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Las Vegas Slot Machine Strategy (maximize entertainment value)
Replies: 31
Views: 2561

Re: Las Vegas Slot Machine Strategy (maximize entertainment value)

A casino will be trying to maximize their take on each machine / amount of floor space. A machine that allows you to play @ 1 cent a spin, will likely have lower odds / payout percentage than one with a higher minimum spin cost. i.e. A machine that allows 10cents per spin may payout 8cents on averag...
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seems like both Stocks and bonds have equal risk now...
Replies: 26
Views: 3258

Re: Seems like both Stocks and bonds have equal risk now...

High quality / Government backed bonds are not risky at all if you keep the maturity (or relative portfolio duration) aligned to your need of the money. A bond is a promise of precisely how much money you'll be paid in interest, and when you'll get the principle back. Stocks offer no such promise. Y...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8598

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

... If you have a chance to ask, ask the bond apocalypse people just how overvalued, in percent , they think the Barclay's Aggregate index is. A year ago, Greenspan gave a couple interviews where he was saying very similar stuff. At that time, 10yr Treasuries were sub 2% and he was explaining how u...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000
Replies: 49
Views: 6610

Re: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000

... Many posts in other threads argue that dividends are irrelevant or poor uses of profits. I think dividends are simply a traditional aspect of investing in equities. I think you may be taking that out of context, dividends are a crucial component of the total return on investment. It's the focus...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Puts Rivals on Notice: Fee Wars Will Only Heat Up
Replies: 62
Views: 6144

Re: "Vanguard Puts Rival Firms On Notice: Fee Wars Will Only Heat Up"

Competition is heating up, and fees are definitely coming down. There was an announcement from Schwab to start a new ETF with a management fee of 0 to 2 basis points: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/watch-out-blackrock-schwab-is-back-with-first-etf-since-2013 ...The Schwab 1000 In...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ
Replies: 25
Views: 3970

Re: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ

...One concern is that persistent index buying elevates valuations across the board and that, should market turmoil erupt, investor index buying would turn to selling, leaving the broader market acutely vulnerable... People buying stocks in general will push the price of stocks up regardless of wha...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8598

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

Greenspan was on CNBC today, with more of the same https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html ..."I have no time frame on the forecast," he said. "I have a chart which goes back to the 1800s and I can tell you that this particul...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000
Replies: 49
Views: 6610

Re: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000

goblue100 wrote:
adam1712 wrote:
Leesbro63 wrote:What is the return from the first time the DOW hit 10,000?
120%
About 4.5%, annualized.
On a Total Return basis (including dividends), since the DJIA went over in 10,000 in March of 1999, an investment in the DJIA would have returned a CAGR over 7%
MStar Chart