Search found 4609 matches

by JoMoney
Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When diversification doesn’t work
Replies: 33
Views: 2634

Re: When diversification doesn’t work

First of all I could care less if the market goes down 2% in a week. But I do find it interesting that seemingly everything went down last week. Stocks. International stocks. Bonds. Commodities. Where did it all go, cash? The money quoted in the market previously never really existed, it was a quot...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Would You Do With $100,000 Right Now
Replies: 28
Views: 2840

Re: What Would You Do With $100,000 Right Now

My aim is to have an asset allocation of 90%(S&P 500 index)/10%(Cash & Short Term Treasuries) by the end of the year.
If an additional $100,000 materialized in my bank account, I would put a little less than 90% of it in stock index fund and the rest would go into short-term treasury index fund.
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"
Replies: 54
Views: 7875

Re: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"

... Everybody wants to get rich quick..... Yup, I personally know at least 6 people "invested" in Bitcoin/crypto-currencies. In talking to them, it seems to me they're mostly interested in making money, as measured in U.S. dollars...somewhat ironically. They'll talk up a big game about the potentia...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: John Bogle and Japanese Stock market.
Replies: 33
Views: 3061

Re: John Bogle and Japanese Stock market.

You could argue that the Japanese stock market is a good example to not invest in the Japanese stock market. I have thought about that: Japan could be used both as an argument for and against investing in foreign markets - and both be rational arguments. Maybe the stock market really only works wel...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: John Bogle and Japanese Stock market.
Replies: 33
Views: 3061

Re: John Bogle and Japanese Stock market.

You could argue that the Japanese stock market is a good example to not invest in the Japanese stock market.
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage and other cash plays
Replies: 15
Views: 1213

Re: Pay off mortgage and other cash plays

I'm in the pay if off camp. - I hate debt (but it can be justified in some entrepreneurial, student loan, or mortgage situations for someone who couldn't get their foot in the door without taking the associated risks that the debt will bring). - If you already have the cash on hand to pay it off, yo...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Sanity
Replies: 4
Views: 1539

Re: Stock Market Sanity

Interesting... the "Siegel Constant" (trend line of S&P total return inflation adjusted) has been something I've looked at since I first heard of Prof. Siegel's book. I had questioned before what the R2 would be in using the simple trend line as a predictor of future returns, if I'm reading it right...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1533

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

If you've decided you've got too much at risk and want to take a less aggressive/less risky position, with the understanding that you're likely to miss out on future returns, making the change to the less risky position is not "market timing" it's just the appropriate thing to do. If you're selling ...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?
Replies: 63
Views: 4649

Re: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?

Like others have said, I think you're statement is wrong about Bogleheads in general, but I'll bite - Perhaps it's because people know more about their house, where they live, incomes in the area, the people, able to 'scuttlebutt' and get a feel for whether or they really do know more than competing...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 8279

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

My preference would be to have paid off any debts before investing in a non-retirement account, so I would sell today to pay off a car or credit card (a very low-interest student loan or mortgage might require further considerations). The time to reassess your willingness to take on risk is when thi...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Jack Bogle an advocate of DCA vs Lumpsump?
Replies: 2
Views: 458

Re: Is Jack Bogle an advocate of DCA vs Lumpsump?

... purchasing shares (ETF / MF's ) at variable rates (due to ups / downs) has greater returns rather than just lumping X into the market in 1 time.... It can be true, but it can also be wrong. It's similar to rebalancing in that regard, if the nature of the returns over the period you're doing it ...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266119

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Bogle's philosophy makes sense to me for the world we currently live in. But it feels like there are so many indications that that world will change. How do you take the long-view in investment strategy when you half-expect the underlying assumptions about the world and the economy to no longer be ...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying diversification benefit
Replies: 6
Views: 691

Re: Quantifying diversification benefit

...Obviously, diversification is a good thing, but what I haven't seen is how to quantify the benefit (in dollars) of a more diverse portfolio... I don't think it is "obvious", at least not simply for the sake of diversification itself. If what you're "diversifying" into has additional risks and no...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Household Assets 1972-1982
Replies: 10
Views: 1776

Re: Household Assets 1972-1982

...On the face of it, your comment makes it sound like a 14% rate on Treasuries was an outstanding deal. But you left out inflation and taxes. Inflation was in the 10-11% range at that time and taxes were higher than today. Buying a 14% Treasury at that time meant that you were guaranteed to lose m...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Household Assets 1972-1982
Replies: 10
Views: 1776

Re: Household Assets 1972-1982

Keep in mind, treasuries were yielding more than 14% in 1982.
.. and a link to a old Warren Buffett article that might ad some context on why investors would prefer bonds in that period
Buffett: How inflation swindles the equity investor (Fortune Classics, 1977)
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American saving rate
Replies: 28
Views: 4948

Re: American saving rate

A high savings rate is a problem for the economy as a whole . Not true. https://moneyfortherestofus.com/mny106-national-debt-2/ Newspaper reporters often repeat the phrase that consumers are the engine of economic growth in the United States. They say it so often that most people believe it, as wit...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't market time...i know, i know.
Replies: 34
Views: 4537

Re: Don't market time...i know, i know.

... Applying the Kelly Criteria on conservative estimates of expected return and volatility in the stock market yields something like 140% equities before you stop being better off with more exposure to the market and really feel the pain of buying rallies and selling dips to maintain proper levera...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Still using a 5 year old iphone 5. Who's with me? No new phones!!!
Replies: 151
Views: 8533

Re: Still using a 5 year old iphone 5. Who's with me? No new phones!!!

Every 2-3 years works for me. I don't buy top of the line phones to begin with. The last phone I bought was an Android locked to a pre-paid phone provider. It cost me $40 + $5 for an unlock code so I could use my SIM from a different MVNO. It does everything I need and then some... Web browser, GPS-...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for an emergency cell phone to keep in car....
Replies: 35
Views: 2162

Re: Looking for an emergency cell phone to keep in car....

If you want super cheap and would ONLY be used in legit EMERGENCY, consider that as long as the phone has working signal most mobile phones even with the service no longer active/paid-up can still call 911. That may not cover all your concerns though, since you don't want to call 911 for things that...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12652

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

I think it is important to read pieces written by people that you disagree with. I would read Paul Krugman if his articles were more objective and frankly more humble. I am sure he is a thoughtful and intelligent guy but he has gotten to the point where he just dismisses those who disagree with him...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 6854

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:21 pm
Bobcat2, I'm wondering if you're serious or joking about Bitcoin....
I think you need to actually follow the link and watch the video. Hopefully that will answer you're question :wink:
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 6854

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

... Your friend is the type of person I find funny...people who have no faith in fiat currencies until they end up with a lot of fiat currency. All of a sudden, fiat isn't so bad to be in. Funny that. There does seem to be paradox there. Assuming he did cash out to legal tender, I wonder if others ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 23685

Re: 401k millionaires

For anyone who wants to sift through the data, there's also the Fed Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm , which has details on size of retirement accounts grouped various ways.
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing in a random walk
Replies: 39
Views: 2284

Re: market timing in a random walk

... -how is it possible that "the general public" is able to reverse market time successfully, and can't you build a successful contrarian strategy out of that? My personal answer is that it is probably like thermodynamics and entropy and Maxwell's demon, and the fact that you can get into a parkin...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 6854

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

And what % of law abiding people need to go "anywhere in the world" to move money in secret? Among the odd things, given all the talk of 'anonymity', is it's not even secret. The blockchain pretty much openly advertises to everybody every single transaction going back forever. Unless the owner is w...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 6854

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

Economist Allan H. Meltzer once said, "We don’t have the gold standard. It’s not because we don’t know about the gold standard, it’s because we do."

*replace [gold] with [Bitcoin or whatever digital or physical commodity you wish]
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing in a random walk
Replies: 39
Views: 2284

Re: market timing in a random walk

Yup... the market exhibits mean reversion, the market exhibits momentum, the market exhibits seasonality/calendar effects, the market exhibits cyclical patterns ... and somehow it also exhibits a random walk. An enigma wrapped in a paradox :shock: Doesn't change the zero sum nature of trading, if th...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing in a random walk
Replies: 39
Views: 2284

Re: market timing in a random walk

EMH and the 'random walk' are false at the extremes, but have some truthiness too them... But even if true, your decision to engage in the trading game would add risk. If you consider the idea of " risk of ruin ", and what gamblers know as "bankroll management" , you might see the problem that if yo...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 331
Views: 57281

Re: Retreat to cash

Since January 3, 2017 total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 29.85%, and $10,000 invested has become $12,985. By my calculation it's only up 6.3%, and $10,000 is worth $10,630. Did you mean "January 3, 2016"? Better check your math. I don't think the mat...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting rid of international funds
Replies: 93
Views: 9907

Re: Getting rid of international funds

... So I guess I have two questions: Has anyone else gotten rid of their international funds? Alternatively does anyone just purposefully exclude them from their portfolio. Is there a ballpark for allocation percentage of the REIT if I wanted extra exposure to real estate in addition to what the US...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking About Timing the Market
Replies: 75
Views: 5663

Re: Thinking About Timing the Market

cutehumor wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:14 pm
...
is there a chart for the modern era say 1970-2018?
Here's a Morningstar chart that you can adjust to your liking from 1925 to present (except for 'Gold'):
Link Image
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12652

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

In the late 1990's people were scared of missing out on the boom, today people seem to still be more 'scared of heights'.
In the late 1990's you could buy high quality bond funds yielding 7%, Series-I Savings Bonds over 3% fixed rate + inflation, and bank savings accounts paying 5%.
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12652

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

Valuations are high, but earnings have not been super hot, it's picked up a bit recently, but 2016 and most of 2017 earnings were below 2013-2014 levels. There is some room for internal growth to catch up. With interest rates still low, bonds still aren't offering much to think about. Momentum and s...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your favorite beach vacation destination?
Replies: 64
Views: 5140

Re: Your favorite beach vacation destination?

My favorite beach? Montana de Oro.
It's not really a touristy location. Please don't go there.
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor Stewardship - "Larry's Letter"
Replies: 6
Views: 640

Investor Stewardship - "Larry's Letter"

The topic of "Investor Stewardship" doesn't tend to get much response on here, but I thought I would point to a recent article about a letter from Black Rock's CEO: https://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-at-davos-is-talking-about-larry-finks-letter-to-ceos-2018-1 Vanguard's CEO has also written le...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA
Replies: 43
Views: 3630

Re: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA

...Is this strategy awesome or am I setting myself up for doom? I wish I knew. As far as I can tell your results so far are as likely to be the result of luck than they are from knowing something that gave you an edge over the stocks that didn't perform nearly as well. I think it's fair to say that...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 23685

Re: 401k millionaires

It's been a blessing for anyone able to contribute the 'overall maximum' [ 415(c) limit ] contribution to a 401k over the past decade. Not easy, but completely feasible for a dual-income couple or a single professional earning something close to $100k whose employer doesn't cap contributions at the ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pizza delivery asked for security code on my credit card with order
Replies: 50
Views: 5178

Re: Pizza delivery asked for security code on my credit card with order

...I personally would prefer to give my credit card to the pizza companies' website than to a human over the phone... I agree, it seems these days most of the time when you are ordering over the phone the person you're talking to is just entering your information in the same online form you would b...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Turn 75,000 into 1 million
Replies: 42
Views: 6815

Re: Turn 75,000 into 1 million

According to PortfolioVIsualizers Monte Carlo Simulation tool Using a randomized sorting of past returns and inflation (which has no bearing on what future returns will be, but is probably as good a guess as any), the 50th percentile of results for $75,000 invested for 25 years is right about $1mil ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 S&P 500 weaker USD adjusted gains
Replies: 1
Views: 345

Re: 2017 S&P 500 weaker USD adjusted gains

... Q#3]. What are the 2018 returns so far for Japanese, Eurozone and British investors? You can build growth charts on Morningstar.com and then change the currency it's denominated in. The article only references the 'Price Return' index, not total return including dividends. Here's a M* link to S...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pizza delivery asked for security code on my credit card with order
Replies: 50
Views: 5178

Re: Pizza delivery asked for security code on my credit card with order

I've had it asked for on several phone orders, and most every Internet order.
It's pretty standard when ordering something where the vendor can't verify the physical card is present.
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 237
Views: 20619

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

Are you questioning whether or not someone might be deluded into believing there's some guarantee that stocks will be a profitable investment? Or are you questioning the philosophy that if people are going to buy stocks, most will be better off buying a diversified cross-section of the market (or th...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 15477

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

I'm following this portfolio. I'm 90% S&P 500 / 10% Short Term Treasuries. I'm honestly loving it. When the stock market plummets generally treasuries go up. The S&P has plenty of international exposure and is as cheap as they come for fees. I am too. After being at closer to 100% equities for the ...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: overall US stock market
Replies: 3
Views: 641

Re: overall US stock market

Shouldn't the ratio of Info.Tech. companies in the modern US market impact it's PE / CAPE ? I think there's a case to be made that the ability of modern IT companies to grow their products (through digital copy, digital distribution) with no major increase in cost could justify higher expected growt...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?
Replies: 29
Views: 1379

Re: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?

I think there are some good alternative non- numerical, less abstracted, more qualitative ideas about risks. Having some idea of the typical price volatility has some usefulness to it... but understanding the problems of combined custody and decision making, and having independent auditors, would ha...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1829

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

... While i don’t assert warren buffet is a coin flipper, I’m not sure if the occurrence of people Who beat the markets over time as statistically different than those that keep flipping more heads than tails. ... The distribution of a coin-flip 'trading game' looks amazingly similar to that of mut...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can You Say...Auto Insurance
Replies: 36
Views: 2717

Re: Can You Say...Auto Insurance

snarlyjack wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:29 am
...The problem is my premiums keep going up ....
Shop around every time your policy comes up for renewal. Insurance companies do not necessarily reward "loyalty".

https://www.npr.org/2015/05/08/40359823 ... n-cost-you
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds' Annualized Returns
Replies: 7
Views: 721

Re: Hedge Funds' Annualized Returns

There is a customer base of underfunded pensions that are happy to pay a liar that claims to be a "professional" to make bold estimates that suggest their under-funding of their pension liabilities is justified.
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?
Replies: 95
Views: 8099

Re: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?

Bail. Other than 'Gambling debts' and 'Golden opportunity investments' I thought this was a good plausible example... but apparently some jails do take credit cards: https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/jail-bail-credit-card-1273.php There are also disaster situations that would require act...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Currency Exchange - Living Internationally Off A US Dollar Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 623

Re: Currency Exchange - Living Internationally Off A US Dollar Portfolio

I don't live off my portfolio, but I do live internationally off a US dollar paycheck. I don't try to time the exchange rates. I do most of my spending on a no foreign transaction fee credit card (Capital One). I take cash out at ATMs using my U.S. no foreign transaction fee bank ATM card. There has...