Search found 8032 matches

by JoMoney
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Dividend Stocks pushed so hard?
Replies: 129
Views: 5895

Re: Why are Dividend Stocks pushed so hard?

If there were no dividends, then stock investing would be like collecting art or Beanie Babies. I don't think so. With the majority of publicly traded companies one has voting rights. If you own enough shares you own the company. Let's say a stock like McDonalds did not pay a dividend. You wouldn't...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is Berkshire Hathaway stock NOT a better investment than the index?
Replies: 43
Views: 5823

Re: How is Berkshire Hathaway stock NOT a better investment than the index?

-BRK is uniquely exposed to catastrophic risks through its insurance and reinsurance (as Buffett himself has cautioned). -BRK's assets have a big chunk in other stocks, buying BRK you pay a book price multiple markup to own those shares that you could buy directly without the price multiple layered ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does "No need for international" only apply to Americans?
Replies: 26
Views: 1756

Re: Does "No need for international" only apply to Americans?

I have read into some of the comments and posts (including from Bogle, Buffet and JL Collins) about only owning US stocks and no need for international other than maybe a small percentage, and it does make sense to me, however the problem is I am not American and do not live in America. So how does...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does "No need for international" only apply to Americans?
Replies: 26
Views: 1756

Re: Does "No need for international" only apply to Americans?

There are different risks, costs, and tax considerations when investing in foreign markets no matter what country you call home, so if you're not a U.S. citizen, the United States is foreign to you... it may impact how much of your portfolio you want outside your home. That said, people in the U.S. ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 382
Views: 10701

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

... USD's value varies daily against all other assets such as crude oil, iron ore, silver, real estate, Euro or whatever you can think of. So it IS jumping up and down in purchasing power every single day. I would never assume USD is a constant with 0 volatility... It's value is sticky enough where...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Dividend Stocks pushed so hard?
Replies: 129
Views: 5895

Re: Why are Dividend Stocks pushed so hard?

FWIW, dividend payers tend to be large companies, and large companies generally have lower volatility. Also, regular dividends tend to be sticky. Shareholders get very angry when a regular dividend is cut, so companies typically are careful about increasing a dividend beyond what they believe can be...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Dividend Stocks pushed so hard?
Replies: 129
Views: 5895

Re: Why are Dividend Stocks pushed so hard?

... capital growth is proven to be better than dividends ... I don't think it's true that " capital growth is proven to be better than dividends ", nor am I saying that dividends are better than capital growth. They both are an important component of returns.... ... and If you don't qualify what th...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There's still plenty of 'mean reversion' to get large-caps up to closing the gap relative to the small-cap returns since early 2000 ;) If one believes that Bogle was right about mean reversion, I guess it makes sense to buy the recent losers to capture the Bogle mean reversion alpha. *shrug* I gues...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's what I still don't get with AA
Replies: 48
Views: 4494

Re: Here's what I still don't get with AA

Ok, so if I have $10k in equities and that's 100% of my portfolio and a 50% crash comes along I'm left with $5000. If I have $10k in equities and another $10k in bonds and a crash comes along at 50% I STILL lose half of the $10k. Yes, I may still have $10k in bonds, but I still was risking the same...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Visa Data Breach Effecting Fidelity Visa
Replies: 18
Views: 2027

Re: Visa Data Breach Effecting Fidelity Visa

Searching the net last night Wawa announced a large data breach. I occasionally get gas there. Possibly that was it. Agree. Seems like a good possibility. :thumbsup From the news articles, the time frame seems to fit. Reported at the end of December (but actual breach was early and throughout 2019)...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too Much Unused Stuff - What do you do with it?
Replies: 11
Views: 2057

Re: Too Much Unused Stuff - What do you do with it?

Going way way back, I would wait until I had a car load of old stuff and take it to a weekend swap meet/flea market and sell it. For a brief time I was actively going to yard sales and buying what I perceived as deeply under priced and useful stuff and re-selling that at the swap meet. Eventually I ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Visa Data Breach Effecting Fidelity Visa
Replies: 18
Views: 2027

Re: Visa Data Breach Effecting Fidelity Visa

I use my Fidelity Visa credit card for just about everything, haven't been notified of anything like this.
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switched from Fidelity to Black Rock???
Replies: 4
Views: 812

Re: Switched from Fidelity to Black Rock???

Searching for "blackrock equity index j" brings up some prior posts on this board, and other information out on the Internet. It appears to be a very low cost 'Collective Investment Trust" (CIT) that tracks the S&P 500. CIT's are different from mutual funds, the information disclosures are different...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification is not always, automatically, a free lunch
Replies: 50
Views: 4273

Re: Diversification is not always, automatically, a free lunch

Diversification is only a "free lunch" if you can't otherwise distinguish between the items. If you have 20 investments that all have the same 'expected return' but with varying random unknowable chance, diversifying across all 20 of them is a 'free lunch'. If you know that 15 of the 20 have a highe...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article - The Hidden Dangers of the Great Index Takeover
Replies: 45
Views: 3231

Re: Article - The Hidden Dangers of the Great Index Takeover

.... Not sure how you'd implement a proxy voting service for index funds to clients, but it can't be impossible to for someone to figure out a system. Would they even want to? Most of them fought over not wanting to even disclose their voting... And whose going to make them change? A frequently quo...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Middle way between DCA and Lumpsum?
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Re: Middle way between DCA and Lumpsum?

Looks fine to me...
But FWIW, if you're not willing to hold that asset allocation now, what makes you think you'll be fine with it later?

Perhaps as you're slowing averaging in it will give you more time to consider what AA you're comfortable at.
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... one could argue on the basis of returns alone that at the end of this period, we've basically just 'caught up' to 'average'. I've posted this before, but since you brought it up: The blue line is $1 starting in 1925 grown at the annualized inflation adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index up throu...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Savings Account
Replies: 41
Views: 4567

Re: High yield savings vs. Bonds

... Longer term treasuries (as long as they match up with your investment time horizon) are better for diversification than short-term or ultra-short term bonds. It's definitely counter-intuitive, but it works when combined with equities because the longer the term the fixed income product is, the ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will The Stock Market Actually Pay My Rent?
Replies: 22
Views: 3186

Re: Will The Stock Market Actually Pay My Rent?

Housing prices / rent can have extreme variations in some areas. It would likely have been disastrous in the SF Bay area in the past couple years. The big difference, is if you own the price of your "rent" or equivalent becomes relatively fixed or at least the value of it automatically adjusts with ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will The Stock Market Actually Pay My Rent?
Replies: 22
Views: 3186

Re: Will The Stock Market Actually Pay My Rent?

People without W2 income rent all the time. Some landlords make it more difficult, but it's not rare. When it comes to drawing down retirement income, it's usually preferable that it be "annuitized" where you can show you're receiving regular payments/withdrawls of some fixed amount on the regular b...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Redeeming Iraqi Dinars - How Best?
Replies: 26
Views: 3061

Re: Redeeming Iraqi Dinars - How Best?

There isn't any major exchange for Dinars. If you search on ebay.com you'll find lots of Iraqi Dinars trying to be sold, that may give you some idea of what they can be bought for (although they don't seem to be selling a whole lot). If you can find someone that wants them for novelty or as a collec...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There's still plenty of 'mean reversion' to get large-caps up to closing the gap relative to the small-cap returns since early 2000 ;)
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 382
Views: 10701

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

... Jack Bogle said to hold some Gold in case of a calamity ... Video - Bogle: 'Gold is not an investment at all!' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlhT07G8zGs&feature=youtu.be&t=118 This is what I've heard John Bogle say: ... if you really are bitten by the gold bug, and it seems like an awful lot ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock threads as a counter indicator
Replies: 40
Views: 2266

Re: 100% stock threads as a counter indicator

I've been participating on this board since 2013. There's been plenty of "100% Stock Threads" spanning the entire time since then. There's also been plenty of people saying that the presence of these threads must indicate the market top... Eventually, the market will see a down-turn and they'll hit ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

If interest rates remain this low, then equities become the only option for those seeking moderate returns. It depends on what you mean by moderate returns, but if you mean that you cannot count on fixed income to produce a 3% or higher real return going forward, I agree with you. That's been the c...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 316
Views: 19395

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

The more I see these arguments, the more it seems that for at least some Bogleheads, chasing unknowable returns is all that matters. The willingness to accept the unique risks that come with international is discarded as irrelevant. The additional costs and tax implications of owning international i...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Savings Account
Replies: 41
Views: 4567

Re: Bonds vs. Savings Account

A HY savings account can be liquidated immediately, often at an ATM machine. Selling a bond fund or ETF will have a settlement period, and requires a functioning market to find someone to sell it to. If the market goes haywire, the Fed and FDIC will come to the aid of banks and their depositors... m...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What goes on at night with the S&P?
Replies: 12
Views: 1433

Re: What goes on at night with the S&P?

Futures trade overnight. So can futures trading over night give you an idea what the S&P will do the next day? Thanks It will give you an idea about what the stock market would be doing if it was open. When the market opens, it will follow whatever the futures were doing prior to open, but a lot ca...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Following Vanguard [Principles]
Replies: 18
Views: 1214

Re: Following Vanguard Principals

Vanguard is still the low cost leader, actively promoting their services, including active mutual funds and ETFs, like they always have. They're still lowering the costs of investing.
I'm more "concerned" about the number of threads showing up with people being "concerned about Vanguard".
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don’t ETF shares ever split to reduce price?
Replies: 29
Views: 2948

Re: Why don’t ETF shares ever split to reduce price?

Vanguard has reverse-split ETF's , to RAISE the per share price
Reducing the share "price" potentially increases the costs to ETF investors who pay spreads on the per share costs.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/co ... t/3195357/
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerages and Cyber Fraud
Replies: 6
Views: 568

Re: Brokerages and Cyber Fraud

... Does anyone know if Vanguard has made similar statements regarding reimbursing? I couldn't find that info on their website. I linked to it above your post... https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/SecurityOnlineFraudPledgeContent.jsp We'll reimburse you the amount taken from your Vanguard accoun...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nuts to remove Vanguard on-line access?
Replies: 24
Views: 3050

Re: Nuts to remove Vanguard on-line access?

Online access allows me to review transactions quickly. To the extent that a firm provides fraud protection guarantee, it's expected that you notify them as quickly as possible. I was just reviewing Fidelity's https://www.fidelity.com/security/customer-protection-guarantee ... What actions must I ta...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...Any idea where the new money is being parked instead of being circulated? My back pocket is NOT the answer. Philosophical economist claims that it's being stockpiled by the extremely rich. Everybody that saves is "stockpiling" money. Practically by definition, the "rich" are the ones that have s...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

marcopolo wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:37 am
...
Any idea where the new money is being parked instead of being circulated?
The same place(s) anyone that has money to save parks it.
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

And was late 2018 a bear market? Yes, it was. By 12/24/2018, VTSAX had dropped just over 20% from its high back in September, 2018. PortfolioVisualizer gives a max draw down of -14.26%. How are you calculating your 20% draw down? PV only gives you month to month, you have to look to specific days.....
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 382
Views: 10701

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

... It's also worth noting that historically the gold standard was not actually that common, and was really only dominant in the last few centuries before the present--not that different from the existence of the historical stock market or, for that matter, fiat currencies. Silver was historically ...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11082

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

Would the dividend yield be a good indicator of minimal real returns if I was to project a slow growth scenario for stocks? The "minimal return" on stocks is nothing. The dividend yield has varied widely over time. I think many would consider it a "slow growth" scenario where real returns were belo...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back Swans and Foreign Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 1103

Re: Back Swans and Foreign Bonds

If you're trying to get some some sort of uncorrelated volatility "diversification benefit" ... who knows :confused If international tensions are the concern, I think that would be a scenario that makes domestic bonds safer. Any hope you have of enforcing a claim on some foreign asset would rely on ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 382
Views: 10701

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

I found the below paper interesting and informative exploring the price of gold The Golden Dilemma Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 69, no. 4 (July/August 2013) 10-42. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2078535 ... investors in gold face a daunting dilemma: 1) embrace a view that “t...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If not for fixed income, why Vanguard?
Replies: 109
Views: 6010

Re: If not for fixed income, why Vanguard?

I have accounts at both Fidelity and Vanguard. I have no idea what people are complaining about with Vanguard. Vanguard's web page does everything I can imagine I would want for buying/selling funds or other securities. I don't need a platform for program trading. In about 20 years with Vanguard I'v...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jumper cables
Replies: 83
Views: 5118

Re: Jumper cables

I vote for one of those rechargeable portable jump starters. If you need it, it saves the hassle of finding someone to help and maneuver the cars into a position where the cables can even reach. It also may reduce the risk of damaging your (or someone else) electrical system from improper jump start...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 253
Views: 22023

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

sperry8 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:06 am
... Research Affiliates lost decade didn't come to be. It was a good decade to stay the course. Just bringing an old thread back to life... Pick your proper AA and stay the course. Fear is not your friend.
:thumbsup

Why Does Pessimism Sound So Smart?
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?
Replies: 72
Views: 6990

Re: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?

That's essentially what I have done, although I do keep a small percentage of cash/short-term bonds as an "emergency fund". I also spent a period playing some silly games with my equity portfolio before settling into simply following the advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett about just using a l...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me locate the wired doorbell chime
Replies: 32
Views: 2124

Re: Help me locate the wired doorbell chime

The box pictured looks to be completely sealed, most doorbell chimes that I've seen have some sort of openings, holes, a screen, or vent-like open lines so the audio isn't muffled and can be heard. I wonder if rather than "not working", if the chime was removed and wherever it was patched and painte...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 316
Views: 19395

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

So, should I own ex-US or not? Bogle said no. Buffet says I don't need it. So far, they've been right. Nobody knows what the future returns will be. There are risks (and some costs and tax considerations) involved with international that you don't have with domestic investing. Some believe the addi...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Think and grow rich, how the intelligent poor dad will beat the Streets: A leveraged 2-fund portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 1668

Re: Think and grow rich, how the intelligent poor dad will beat the streets: A leveraged 2-fund portfolio

...I have run some calculations and found that using 1.6-2:1 leverage is well within my risk tolerance... I would be curious what sort of "calculations" you ran to find your "risk tolerance" ? Are you familiar with Ed Thorpe's calculations applying the Kelly criterion to stocks? http://www.edwardot...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2974
Views: 287122

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... Hi, thanks. That upper bound sure is getting up there, and it looks like it will get beyond feasible and approach an incredibly high number soon. Kind of like when it's assumed that housing prices will go up 5% per year, until they just can't. And stocks can't do that forever, either. I suppose...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coincidence, or something more sinister?
Replies: 14
Views: 2356

Re: Coincidence, or something more sinister?

*shrug* I don't know that it matters whether's it's coincidence or not.
I would (at a minimum) put a "Fraud Alert" on my profile with the credit agencies, a "credit freeze" is likely better.