Search found 8104 matches

by JoMoney
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What goes on at night with the S&P?
Replies: 12
Views: 1446

Re: What goes on at night with the S&P?

Futures trade overnight. So can futures trading over night give you an idea what the S&P will do the next day? Thanks It will give you an idea about what the stock market would be doing if it was open. When the market opens, it will follow whatever the futures were doing prior to open, but a lot ca...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Following Vanguard [Principles]
Replies: 18
Views: 1221

Re: Following Vanguard Principals

Vanguard is still the low cost leader, actively promoting their services, including active mutual funds and ETFs, like they always have. They're still lowering the costs of investing.
I'm more "concerned" about the number of threads showing up with people being "concerned about Vanguard".
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don’t ETF shares ever split to reduce price?
Replies: 29
Views: 2971

Re: Why don’t ETF shares ever split to reduce price?

Vanguard has reverse-split ETF's , to RAISE the per share price
Reducing the share "price" potentially increases the costs to ETF investors who pay spreads on the per share costs.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/co ... t/3195357/
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerages and Cyber Fraud
Replies: 6
Views: 577

Re: Brokerages and Cyber Fraud

... Does anyone know if Vanguard has made similar statements regarding reimbursing? I couldn't find that info on their website. I linked to it above your post... https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/SecurityOnlineFraudPledgeContent.jsp We'll reimburse you the amount taken from your Vanguard accoun...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nuts to remove Vanguard on-line access?
Replies: 24
Views: 3066

Re: Nuts to remove Vanguard on-line access?

Online access allows me to review transactions quickly. To the extent that a firm provides fraud protection guarantee, it's expected that you notify them as quickly as possible. I was just reviewing Fidelity's https://www.fidelity.com/security/customer-protection-guarantee ... What actions must I ta...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...Any idea where the new money is being parked instead of being circulated? My back pocket is NOT the answer. Philosophical economist claims that it's being stockpiled by the extremely rich. Everybody that saves is "stockpiling" money. Practically by definition, the "rich" are the ones that have s...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

marcopolo wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:37 am
...
Any idea where the new money is being parked instead of being circulated?
The same place(s) anyone that has money to save parks it.
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

And was late 2018 a bear market? Yes, it was. By 12/24/2018, VTSAX had dropped just over 20% from its high back in September, 2018. PortfolioVisualizer gives a max draw down of -14.26%. How are you calculating your 20% draw down? PV only gives you month to month, you have to look to specific days.....
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11964

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

... It's also worth noting that historically the gold standard was not actually that common, and was really only dominant in the last few centuries before the present--not that different from the existence of the historical stock market or, for that matter, fiat currencies. Silver was historically ...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11153

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

Would the dividend yield be a good indicator of minimal real returns if I was to project a slow growth scenario for stocks? The "minimal return" on stocks is nothing. The dividend yield has varied widely over time. I think many would consider it a "slow growth" scenario where real returns were belo...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back Swans and Foreign Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 1109

Re: Back Swans and Foreign Bonds

If you're trying to get some some sort of uncorrelated volatility "diversification benefit" ... who knows :confused If international tensions are the concern, I think that would be a scenario that makes domestic bonds safer. Any hope you have of enforcing a claim on some foreign asset would rely on ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11964

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

I found the below paper interesting and informative exploring the price of gold The Golden Dilemma Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 69, no. 4 (July/August 2013) 10-42. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2078535 ... investors in gold face a daunting dilemma: 1) embrace a view that “t...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If not for fixed income, why Vanguard?
Replies: 109
Views: 6069

Re: If not for fixed income, why Vanguard?

I have accounts at both Fidelity and Vanguard. I have no idea what people are complaining about with Vanguard. Vanguard's web page does everything I can imagine I would want for buying/selling funds or other securities. I don't need a platform for program trading. In about 20 years with Vanguard I'v...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jumper cables
Replies: 83
Views: 5146

Re: Jumper cables

I vote for one of those rechargeable portable jump starters. If you need it, it saves the hassle of finding someone to help and maneuver the cars into a position where the cables can even reach. It also may reduce the risk of damaging your (or someone else) electrical system from improper jump start...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 253
Views: 22071

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

sperry8 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:06 am
... Research Affiliates lost decade didn't come to be. It was a good decade to stay the course. Just bringing an old thread back to life... Pick your proper AA and stay the course. Fear is not your friend.
:thumbsup

Why Does Pessimism Sound So Smart?
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?
Replies: 72
Views: 7087

Re: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?

That's essentially what I have done, although I do keep a small percentage of cash/short-term bonds as an "emergency fund". I also spent a period playing some silly games with my equity portfolio before settling into simply following the advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett about just using a l...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me locate the wired doorbell chime
Replies: 32
Views: 2129

Re: Help me locate the wired doorbell chime

The box pictured looks to be completely sealed, most doorbell chimes that I've seen have some sort of openings, holes, a screen, or vent-like open lines so the audio isn't muffled and can be heard. I wonder if rather than "not working", if the chime was removed and wherever it was patched and painte...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 316
Views: 19501

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

So, should I own ex-US or not? Bogle said no. Buffet says I don't need it. So far, they've been right. Nobody knows what the future returns will be. There are risks (and some costs and tax considerations) involved with international that you don't have with domestic investing. Some believe the addi...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Think and grow rich, how the intelligent poor dad will beat the Streets: A leveraged 2-fund portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 1682

Re: Think and grow rich, how the intelligent poor dad will beat the streets: A leveraged 2-fund portfolio

...I have run some calculations and found that using 1.6-2:1 leverage is well within my risk tolerance... I would be curious what sort of "calculations" you ran to find your "risk tolerance" ? Are you familiar with Ed Thorpe's calculations applying the Kelly criterion to stocks? http://www.edwardot...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... Hi, thanks. That upper bound sure is getting up there, and it looks like it will get beyond feasible and approach an incredibly high number soon. Kind of like when it's assumed that housing prices will go up 5% per year, until they just can't. And stocks can't do that forever, either. I suppose...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coincidence, or something more sinister?
Replies: 14
Views: 2382

Re: Coincidence, or something more sinister?

*shrug* I don't know that it matters whether's it's coincidence or not.
I would (at a minimum) put a "Fraud Alert" on my profile with the credit agencies, a "credit freeze" is likely better.
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ginnie Mae Vs Total Bond Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Re: Ginnie Mae Vs Total Bond Fund

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX) Has a duration (currently) of 6.3 years Vanguard GNMA Fund Investor Shares (VFIIX) Has a duration (currently) of 2.6 years When interest rates go down, it will cause a portfolio with a higher duration to go up further than one with lower ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ginnie Mae Vs Total Bond Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Re: Ginnie Mae Vs Total Bond Fund

I'm not sure what you mean by "..it's not really tracking as well.." VFIIX is an active fund (although conservatively managed) that doesn't track any specific index. I would view either as a reasonably good choice as an intermediate bond fund, although I don't use them. TBF is probably better "diver...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... This plot is semi-logarithmic. It would be useful to compare it to a linear plot, which may look less positive, or at least spark some alternative thinking, inasmuch as logarithmic plots compress things. That's easy enough to do https://i.postimg.cc/ncyhYNym/linear.png FWIW, what might make it ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EDV simulation correct in SIMBA spreadsheet?
Replies: 20
Views: 904

Re: Is EDV simulation correct in SIMBA spreadsheet?

EDV is an Exchange Traded Fund with an inception date of 12/06/2007 , so anything claiming to show it's returns before that is, well.. wrong. There is an index that EDV tracks that has a somewhat longer history: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury STRIPS 20–30 Year Index You can look back a little furt...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020
Replies: 62
Views: 4789

Re: $1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:53 am
Thanks for this thread.

I totally forgot I had an account on Coinbase I had forgotten about since late 2017.

Sold some Ethereum and Litecoin to rebalance into Bitcoin.
As far as I can work out, people trading the crypto-"currency" for the sake of trading it seems to it's predominant use.
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11153

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

CNBC says that the "The average annualized total return for the S&P 500 index over the past 90 years is 9.8 percent". Nominal. Minus how much inflation over that 90 years? Weird that they chose the past 90 year period, since the S&P's daily index, and the typically referenced Ibbotson Associates da...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!
Replies: 73
Views: 5007

Re: MARKETWATCH Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!

Back in 2008, Warren Buffet picked the S&P 500 (Vanguard's VFIAX fund specifically) in his bet against the hedge funds for the ten year period ending last year. He said he would make the same bet again. I doubt the next 10 years will look like the last, but I'm not going to bet broad U.S. stocks wi...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:14 pm
....
Thanks! I would love to see Total Stock's yield get back over 2.00%.
Well, that could easily happen if the price per share falls :annoyed
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I am curious of what the dividend yield of the S&P 500 is over the same timeframe. Dec 31, 2019 1.81% estimate Dec 31, 2018 2.09% Dec 31, 2017 1.84% Dec 31, 2016 2.03% Dec 31, 2015 2.11% Dec 31, 2014 1.92% Dec 31, 2013 1.94% Dec 31, 2012 2.20% Dec 31, 2011 2.13% Dec 31, 2010 1.83% Dec 31, 2009 2.02...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

JDS Uniphase, Nortel, Infospace, MCI Worldcom, I bought all sorts of garbage because I didn’t know what I was doing. What would have happened if you bought and held an S&P 500 mutual fund? The S&P 500 total return was up 6.132% annualized from January 2000 to December 2019. That is just slightly be...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... one could argue on the basis of returns alone that at the end of this period, we've basically just 'caught up' to 'average'. I've posted this before, but since you brought it up: The blue line is $1 starting in 1925 grown at the annualized inflation adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index up throu...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301365

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

JDS Uniphase, Nortel, Infospace, MCI Worldcom, I bought all sorts of garbage because I didn’t know what I was doing. What would have happened if you bought and held an S&P 500 mutual fund? The S&P 500 total return was up 6.132% annualized from January 2000 to December 2019. That is just slightly be...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why big difference between fidelity and vanguard tot international today?
Replies: 6
Views: 540

Re: Why big difference between fidelity and vanguard tot international today?

Vxus vanguard total international 1/2 1.11% Fid total international ftihx .89 Well for one, VXUS is an ETF that is priced throughout the day FTIHX is a mutual fund, which is only priced at the end of day, and takes some time before the information is available. You're likely looking at stale data f...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying individual stocks as my “index” fund
Replies: 44
Views: 2345

Re: Buying individual stocks as my “index” fund

I used to have a portfolio of individual stocks before 2008, part of my justification was that if I traded sparingly, and largely "buy and hold", it would be cheaper than the ER on an index fund. Despite having a little bit of success with returns (relative to a broad market index), I really couldn'...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020
Replies: 62
Views: 4789

Re: $1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020

I suppose they can't all up and sell, some of them can't even get access to their Bitcoin even if they wanted to...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/company ... d=60851760
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Continues to Lower the Cost of Investing with Expansion of Commission-Free Platform Beyond ETF
Replies: 71
Views: 4762

Re: Vanguard Continues to Lower the Cost of Investing with Expansion of Commission-Free Platform Beyond ETF

New account benefit to be announced:
Exclusive benefit for 'Flogship' customers, now "free" to smash their own hand in a door.
'Schooner Select' and 'Dinghy Class' customers can do so if they remit a $10 fee
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anything I should know regarding Fidelity CMA vs typical checking account before I jump in?
Replies: 13
Views: 1200

Re: Anything I should know regarding Fidelity CMA vs typical checking account before I jump in?

1) how is the account web/app interface? Better/worse/similar to a "normal" bank Checking experience? I'd say it's slightly worse, though you get used to it. Basically it's still set up like a brokerage account (since that's all it is), so when you log in you tend to see things like "positions", an...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020
Replies: 62
Views: 4789

$1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020

These articles site a Bank of America report claiming $1 in bitcoin grew to $90,000 :shock: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/17/investing/best-worst-investments-decade-bitcoin/index.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-pyramid-scheme-says-economist-070015526.html Who are these people that are ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Free trades and Flagship status
Replies: 21
Views: 1536

Re: Free trades and Flagship status

I'm amazed at the great interest in "free trades" for Boglehead's and Vanguard customers.
Might as well be offering "free" poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
I would have thought trading antithetical to the whole ethos :confused thought wrong :?
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Continues to Lower the Cost of Investing with Expansion of Commission-Free Platform Beyond ETF
Replies: 71
Views: 4762

Re: Vanguard Continues to Lower the Cost of Investing with Expansion of Commission-Free Platform Beyond ETF

While electronic trading should be extremely cheap at a large scale, the infrastructure, administrative requirements, and customer service/support is not "free". This new era of "free" trading raises questions for me. Who is bearing the costs? (I think the answer has to be the people with the money....
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!
Replies: 73
Views: 5007

Re: MARKETWATCH Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!

... Of course, that would mislead too since one should not cherry pick 10 years where the S&P500 leads over solely a US Bull Market. It's highly unlikely to repeat over the next 10. Back in 2008, Warren Buffet picked the S&P 500 (Vanguard's VFIAX fund specifically) in his bet against the hedge fund...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!
Replies: 73
Views: 5007

Re: MARKETWATCH Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!

... Of course, that would mislead too since one should not cherry pick 10 years where the S&P500 leads over solely a US Bull Market. It's highly unlikely to repeat over the next 10. Back in 2008, Warren Buffet picked the S&P 500 (Vanguard's VFIAX fund specifically) in his bet against the hedge fund...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!
Replies: 73
Views: 5007

Re: MARKETWATCH Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!

Not on the list, the classic 60/40 U.S. stocks/Bonds
Mr.Bogle's 1 fund portfolio "Vanguard Balanced Index Fund" VBIAX 9.68% annualized over the past 10 years, and that's with a 40% bond allocation (compared to the 2nd grader portfolios 10% bond allocation)
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where will the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 end the decade at?
Replies: 5
Views: 474

Re: Where will the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 end the decade at?

*shrug* very wide range of possibilities. Fortunately, my investment results are depending on the returns of 2020 through 2029. While it isn't meaningless, it's just one of a series of numbers that will be averaged in with my returns from other periods like 2010-2020 and 2015-2025. S&P 500 returns f...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we time the market on housing price?
Replies: 30
Views: 2126

Re: Can we time the market on housing price?

Real estate is a specialized field, and the market can be very unique in specific areas. Like in other fields, there are some 'experts' that have better information and experience. While I'm hesitant to say they can "time the market" knowing where the short-term prices are headed, they may have a be...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What funds beat their benchmarks?
Replies: 18
Views: 1622

Re: What funds beat their benchmarks?

Here's a direct link to the most recent "2019 US Mid-Year SPIVA Scorecard"
https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiv ... r-2019.pdf
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11153

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

Investopedia states that the real historical real total return of the stock market has been about 7% . You have to make sure that you are looking at total return , dividends matter a lot. 7% seems about right, though looking ahead, I only expect about 4% real total return. Total stock market divide...