Search found 350 matches

by sreynard
Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 268
Views: 32257

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

One thing that has to be understood about this high stock allocation is that it is a strategy of riding greater returns on average while imposing high uncertainty, aka volatility, both short and long term (stocks are risky in the long run). In the example above the 100% stock strategy has $1M. A mo...
by sreynard
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)
Replies: 102
Views: 15889

Re: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)

nedsaid wrote:Write on the chalkboard 100 times, "I will not chase yield, I will not chase performance."
"I will not buy high and sell low. I will not buy high. . . ." :)
by sreynard
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)
Replies: 102
Views: 15889

Re: dividend paying stocks good substitutes for safe bonds (NOT)

Sure, I learned a lesson. My stocks went down a little then right back up a few days later. Not exactly the end of the world. Five year treasures with a 1% yield are not even meeting inflation.

Maybe we should switch to investing in equities for yield and bonds for capital gains. :wink:
by sreynard
Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another "should I pay off the mortgage post?"
Replies: 29
Views: 4566

Re: Another "should I pay off the mortgage post?"

Or just pay as if it was a 10 year mortgage. It will be paid off when you retire, you don't tie up all your money up front, and you still have the flexibility to drop back to the regular payments if something else comes along.
by sreynard
Wed May 11, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 11456

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

Companies buy back existing shares, decreasing the number of shares outstanding, which causes the value of the remaining shares to rise. Except they then give stock options to executives, increasing the number of shares back up. In far too many cases, stock buybacks are just ways for a company to g...
by sreynard
Fri Apr 22, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Index Card"
Replies: 19
Views: 3935

Re: "The Index Card"

Taylor Larimore wrote:One of the more pathetic studies shows that the stocks that people sold outperformed the stocks that people bought.
people == individual investors
by sreynard
Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [DOL Rule on Fiduciary Standard is Released]
Replies: 105
Views: 9454

Re: Thoughts on ObamaRule?

A large company can afford to offer a good 401k plan. Small employers often cannot. I was in a 401k plan that most funds had expense ratios of 1.25% to 1.5% plus a 0.90% wrap fee. The only index fund was an S&P 500 fund with an ER of 0.95% plus the wrap fee. When you pay 1.85% for an index fund and...
by sreynard
Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone think the stock market is overvalued?
Replies: 50
Views: 6925

Re: Does anyone think the stock market is overvalued?

whatistiaa wrote:
unclescrooge wrote:
greg24 wrote:Equity valuations are near historic highs.
Not really. They're just above historic averages.

Bonds on the other hand....
Can you finish that sentence about bonds?
I'll do it. :happy

"Bonds on the other hand are at historic highs."
by sreynard
Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone think the stock market is overvalued?
Replies: 50
Views: 6925

Re: Does anyone think the stock market is overvalued?

No (Oops! need at least 5 characters)
by sreynard
Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's all about saving, not investing really.
Replies: 84
Views: 10614

Re: It's all about saving, not investing really.

True. I shouldn't downplay the effect of compound interest over time. But the whole thing still feels like a big catch-22. You don't see the major shifts in return until you have a large balance, but by the time you have a large balance, you don't need to have major shifts in return. (And even more...
by sreynard
Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's all about saving, not investing really.
Replies: 84
Views: 10614

Re: It's all about saving, not investing really.

So I've come to the conclusion that investing money properly is only a small part of the equation to early retirement . I read so many posts by people wanting to retire early so they go 70%->100% on equities thinking that's the major component to building a nest egg. Correct me if I'm wrong, but ev...
by sreynard
Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to drop life insurance after achieving FI?
Replies: 10
Views: 1608

Re: When to drop life insurance after achieving FI?

Obviously with a special needs child you can not afford to take any chances that would result in your child not receiving the help they need. By definition, if you are financially independent you have sufficient assets to meet your financial needs and so no longer need the insurance. If not, you're ...
by sreynard
Tue Mar 22, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I generally invest in Roth accounts, but should I invest in a Traditional IRA?
Replies: 57
Views: 4466

Re: I generally invest in Roth accounts, but should I invest in a Traditional IRA?

uclalien wrote:
niceguy7376 wrote:Company 401k is always in trad 401k. Please check on that.
So you already have a small trad 401k component.
Many companies offer a Roth 401k option, which appears to be the case for the OP.
He meant a company match, if any, is always in a traditional 401k, hence the "small trad 401k component".
by sreynard
Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Best and Worst Funds listed by the Wall Street Journal
Replies: 22
Views: 3994

Re: The Best and Worst Funds listed by the Wall Street Journal

gwrvmd wrote:Taylor: It is a worthless analysis, the same as a very similar article in a recent (Mar?) issue of Kiplingers.
Gordon, Taylor is very aware of this. He's having fun. That's why he said he would never pay for a subscription.
by sreynard
Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you find retirement forecasting confusing?
Replies: 51
Views: 6272

Re: Do you find retirement forecasting confusing?

OP, 1) Spend 1/3, Save 1/3, pay 1/3 to taxes. KlangFool :sharebeer Excellent advice Klang. Keep it simple! Just invest the money in the 3 fund portfolio and you're done. :mrgreen: 30% to 45% seems like a good range for me too. Too bad I didn't know that when I was 20, I wouldn't have made a few exp...
by sreynard
Fri Feb 26, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going to 30/70 (Target Retirement Income Fund) at age 33?
Replies: 45
Views: 7499

Re: Going to 30/70 (Target Retirement Income Fund) at age 33?

Decreasing your allocation is one solution to the problem, but as others have mentioned doing so has other side effects. Those side effects may be a lot worse than the original problem. Not having enough to retire when you want, or need, or are forced to, is a big one. Running out of money when you...
by sreynard
Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going to 30/70 (Target Retirement Income Fund) at age 33?
Replies: 45
Views: 7499

Re: Going to 30/70 (Target Retirement Income Fund) at age 33?

goingup wrote:This is classic poor investor behavior.
Otherwise known as buying high and selling low.

[Or in this case, selling low and buying high.]
by sreynard
Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going to 30/70 (Target Retirement Income Fund) at age 33?
Replies: 45
Views: 7499

Re: Going to 30/70 (Target Retirement Income Fund) at age 33?

I guess I have a hard time relating to the idea of investing based on emotions. Maybe its the engineer in me. I see it as a statistical problem not an emotional one. It seems to me that an irrational fear is the problem. Maybe that should be what is worked on, instead of the asset allocation? From m...
by sreynard
Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Finally - Maxed 401k - Now What
Replies: 40
Views: 6624

Re: Finally - Maxed 401k - Now What

If you can max your 401k with 6% of your income, your income may be too high to invest in an any IRA. 6% is a very low savings rate so you will probably have to kick it up substantially if you want to preserve your lifestyle in retirement. Most here recommend at least 15%, though many are well above...
by sreynard
Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Market Open supposed be Brutal...........
Replies: 44
Views: 5409

Re: Today's Market Open supposed be Brutal...........

LiterallyIronic wrote:Sorry everybody, this is completely my fault - I put about five grand into stock the other day.
Oh! You're the one! :annoyed

Maybe you could come to California this weekend and wash your car. :wink:
by sreynard
Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) getting killed
Replies: 52
Views: 7326

Re: 401(k) getting killed

I am 30. Fairly young. According to most people I should invest in a fund with a target retirement date of 2045 or so, which means mostly stocks. But I don't think it matters what your age is. The best investment strategy is the one that minimizes risk and maximizes return given the current market ...
by sreynard
Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course?
Replies: 16
Views: 1674

Re: Staying the course?

I don't think the premise of the question is correct. Stocks do not rise or fall because of the number of buyers and sellers, but rather because of the price at which buyers and sellers are willing to transact. There is a buyer for every seller and a seller for every buyer. So there is no herd to f...
by sreynard
Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) getting killed
Replies: 52
Views: 7326

Re: 401(k) getting killed

There's no way to avoid the pain, except by taking less risk. If somebody tells you otherwise, he is either a fool, or trying to sell you something. You can put some money in bonds and cash, which will lessen the pain, especially when your bonds rise as stocks fall. Take a look at intermediate trea...
by sreynard
Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VSS Spreads and TLH [FTSE Small Cap ex-US and Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 29
Views: 2158

Re: VSS Wide Bid/Ask Spread

I don't buy an ETF with even an occasional wide bid/ask spread. Too thinly traded for me. So I guess my response would be to never buy VSS.

[Edit] Oops! Small cap, should have looked it up. . . .
by sreynard
Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?
Replies: 44
Views: 8181

Re: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?

Does anyone else see the irony of people that invest in cap' weighted index funds complaining about a fund company making component changes to their funds? :confused Oh that dang S&P keeps changing it's index! Oh my! I want my 1999 "stay the course" S&P 500 fund! I liked my Crown Cork & Seal and the...
by sreynard
Thu May 08, 2014 9:04 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy Birthday John C. Bogle !
Replies: 37
Views: 3446

Re: Happy Birthday John C Bogle

Happy Birthday Jack!

And thank you
by sreynard
Wed Apr 30, 2014 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Change the name of the "Backdoor Roth" to something else?
Replies: 41
Views: 3516

Re: Change the name of the "Backdoor Roth" to something else

Or we could add a disclaimer, "Backdoor Roth, *not that there's anything wrong with that." :shock:
by sreynard
Tue Apr 15, 2014 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Treatment of HSA in California
Replies: 9
Views: 3496

Re: Tax Treatment of HSA in California

I treat my HSA just like my brokerage account. Total stock market ETF and Total International ETF and enough cash (default money market sweep) for any needs over the next year. Everything tracked in Quicken, like normal.
by sreynard
Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 7797

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

As a young investor in my infancy years of investing, I can't wait for another financial crisis. 60-80% drop for next 2-3 years? I can only hope. :wink: Declines like that happen for a reason. There's a good chance with an 80% decline instead of an investor you'd be unemployed or drafted. +1 You ha...
by sreynard
Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time it's different?
Replies: 16
Views: 3132

Re: This time it's different?

I think the one thing of value you can take away from this is that it's likely returns going forward will be lower . . . It seems like I've been hearing this for a very long time. I can't recall what it was, but I was reading something from the '50s or '60s the other day that said almost the exact ...
by sreynard
Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 16498

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

if the DOW went up to 18000 in August and all of a sudden something happened and it was clear we were going to have some major black swan type event nobody knows what is going to happen even tomorrow Both of these things can't be true. Most people you are calling "arrogant" simply follow the second...
by sreynard
Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem
Replies: 89
Views: 9789

Re: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem

Wow! Just WOW!!! If 20% is not enough, what is? :shock: I don't see why not. 1% saved will replace 2% of your salary. SS is about 14%, this pension is 20%, and that gives a replacement of 68%. L. Ask the authors of the paper, I'm merely in a state of shock when one says saving 20% with social secur...
by sreynard
Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What video games are you currently playing?
Replies: 288
Views: 37705

Re: What video games are you currently playing?

I recently completed a full playthrough of the Mass Effect trilogy, start to finish (I had probably been working on it for the better part of the past year, in what free time I have). Currently almost done with second play through of Mass Effect trilogy. I heard they are planning a fourth, though w...
by sreynard
Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Living with Windows 8
Replies: 43
Views: 4394

Re: Living with Windows 8

No thanks
by sreynard
Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Zowie, what a day. Thanks, all!
Replies: 52
Views: 5321

Re: Zowie, what a day. Thanks, all!

With about twenty years till retirement, this was a good day. A bad day is when the market goes up. Going up just means the next purchase is going to be more expensive. It's important to remember which side you are on: a buyer or a seller. I sure don't do a lot of crying when my favorite beer goes o...
by sreynard
Fri Jan 24, 2014 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glad I own bonds today!
Replies: 56
Views: 6005

Re: Glad I own bonds today!

Silence Dogood wrote:
terrabiped wrote:
pastafarian wrote:Is something happening in the stock market? I'm not watching CNBC. :confused
Apparently stocks are getting "crushed" or "destroyed" today. I heard the DOW was down 1.2%!!!!!!!!!!!
"Oh, no!"
I better go nail the windows shut so I'm not attempted to jump! :shock:
by sreynard
Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taper!!!
Replies: 25
Views: 3650

Re: TAPER!!!

If there's anything the modern major central banks are good at, it's keeping inflation low. They expect inflation to stay under 2% for years. They are good at it until suddenly they are not. Just like those worried about inflation are idiots until they are brilliant. When the central banks want inf...
by sreynard
Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's your definition of "drive it into the ground?"
Replies: 50
Views: 6261

Re: What's your definition of "drive it into the ground?"

When my mechanic says, "Donate it."
by sreynard
Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Current Windows 8 vs. New Version
Replies: 39
Views: 3919

Re: Current Windows 8 vs. New Version

It should fix some of the complaints, ignore most of them, and make a few worst. Like every other version.

I've used every version of Windows since 1.0. 7 will be the last, unless 9 is dramatically better. Will be buying my first Mac when the new Mac Book Pro comes out.
by sreynard
Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The market is on fire
Replies: 134
Views: 17833

Re: The market is on fire

What is really funny is that the reason the Fed will maintain the stimulus is because they downgraded their outlook for the U.S. economy. :confused Fed downgrades its outlook for US economy Federal Reserve sketches a gloomier outlook for US economic growth for this year and next The economy is look...
by sreynard
Sat Aug 03, 2013 2:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why you need bonds as rates rise
Replies: 61
Views: 8781

Re: Why you need bonds as rates rise

What Ned said. . . What Ned . . . .
by sreynard
Fri Aug 02, 2013 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why you need bonds as rates rise
Replies: 61
Views: 8781

Re: Why you need bonds as rates rise

Color me contrarian, but if everyone is heading for the exits, it's probably time to increase my bond allocation now instead of waiting until January. It's probably just my perverse nature. . . . Steve How would be people "heading for the exits" lower the bond interest rate? Wouldn't people "headin...
by sreynard
Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why you need bonds as rates rise
Replies: 61
Views: 8781

Re: Why you need bonds as rates rise

Color me contrarian, but if everyone is heading for the exits, it's probably time to increase my bond allocation now instead of waiting until January. It's probably just my perverse nature. . . .

Steve
by sreynard
Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should i treat business debt like personal debt?
Replies: 10
Views: 1348

Re: Should i treat business debt like personal debt?

Depends on how you structure your business. If sole proprietorship, it is personal debt. If LLC or other corp, you are personally protected. In business, your major concern should be cash flow. Debt is fine if it allows you to make a profit and you have sufficient cash flow to support it. Otherwise ...
by sreynard
Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is Best Asset Class for Retirees?
Replies: 27
Views: 4198

Re: Cash is Best Asset Class for Retirees?

"This time" always seems to be different. . . :oops: Nothing wrong with 100% cash if you have enough. If I had $10M right now I would sit fat and happy, but seems to me sitting on the sidelines usually doesn't end well. Kind of ironic the S&P 500 hundred hitting a high today. Maybe it will be a bett...
by sreynard
Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on rebalancing.
Replies: 10
Views: 1085

Re: Need advice on rebalancing.

I like the roll the American IRA to Vanguard idea. Though I don't usually, you may be better off dollar cost averaging over a year or two. Take it slow, no real reason rush.

Steve
by sreynard
Thu Aug 01, 2013 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is company stock ever a good idea?
Replies: 35
Views: 3784

Re: Is company stock ever a good idea?

My company ESPP offers only a 5% discount, although there is no waiting period to sell. The benefit is taxed as ordinary income, and Fidelity charges $7.99 to sell shares every time. So it hasn't been especially attractive to me. Do all of you still advocate participating in the ESPP in this type o...
by sreynard
Thu Aug 01, 2013 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is company stock ever a good idea?
Replies: 35
Views: 3784

Re: Is company stock ever a good idea?

Your company stock price could be highly correlated to your employment future at that company. I remember a small company in Silicon Valley that was really doing well. It had recently gone IPO and many employees were shopping for houses and visiting the local Porsche dealership. The stock went from ...
by sreynard
Thu Aug 01, 2013 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV
Replies: 63
Views: 8680

Re: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV

Random Walker wrote:The expected return on an investment in a company is the same as that company's cost of capital.
:confused I've never heard that theory before.
by sreynard
Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV
Replies: 63
Views: 8680

Re: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV

I've often wondered how others cannot believe there would be risk premia for small and value. Who would a bank rather lend money to, a big successful growing company or a struggling leveraged company in an unpopular industry. Would a bank rather lend to McDonalds or SAMs burger shack? Makes sense t...