Search found 7258 matches

by jeffyscott
Sun Jul 08, 2007 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: no more intl, reits for me
Replies: 16
Views: 4369

why no more intl for me? ... You have to deal with currency risk and you are never compensated for that risk. Aren't you exposed to a single currency's risks by having everything in dollars? Isn't the dollar just another currency that can go up or down? Do you buy things made in foreign countries, ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jul 08, 2007 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Interpreting Morningstar Chart
Replies: 7
Views: 1765

However, some of the items that are not captured in the annual ER are trading costs and taxes.
Of course, while not part of the ER, the effect of those items is also already accounted for in the annual return figure, as well.
by jeffyscott
Sun Jul 08, 2007 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [poll] global warming: fact, myth, & are we to blame?
Replies: 74
Views: 23154

Re: [poll] global warming: fact, myth, & are we to blame

i'm watching the live earth concerts tonite. In any case, surely the global warming problem is now solved since a bunch of music industry stars, whose lifestyles result in CO2 emissions that are far above average, had a concert :roll: . One also wonders why Mr. Gore did not see this as the biggest ...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 07, 2007 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations Matter! Now what?
Replies: 66
Views: 20551

But while I find it easy to sell equities for rebalancing when they've gone up alot (exceed top of my range), I know it's very painful to buy equities after they have been crashing for an extended period and it looks like the world is going to hell in a hand basket. I'm curious of those who say the...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to exit REIT's ?
Replies: 91
Views: 35326

It's not senseless then to increase weightings in REITs now back to the target of 5 or 10%. Even if REITs drop a further 20%, the loss in performance is not crippling, and the long term diversification benefits remain. Okay, you convinced me :) . I am buying some today to move back toward our 3.5% ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate Bond Returns - Past and Future
Replies: 21
Views: 5480

Yes and there may also be a small "spread" when comparing stocks to bonds, depending on what you think the current expected return from stocks is. BTW, it's not like I am really loading up on corporate bonds, just that stocks continue to worry me much more than any kind of bonds do. I am actually mo...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: OT: Electric heat, gas heat, oil heat
Replies: 26
Views: 7599

Do a search for "heating cost calculator" and you will find things like:

http://www.nppd.com/My_Home/Services/Ad ... ulator.asp
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations Matter! Now what?
Replies: 66
Views: 20551

The first big hurdle in using "valuations" to predict the market as many suggest is deciding on which metric to use. Then you must decide what is high, fair or low. There is no consensus on these answers. This implies that paying attention to valuations means you must have an off/on switch for stoc...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate Bond Returns - Past and Future
Replies: 21
Views: 5480

Jeffy First, you get that 6% in tax inefficient way and the 7% in efficient way, or at least can. Not in our case, since 100% of our portfolio is in tax deferred accounts. With the ability to add about $40,000, or more, per year to tax deferred accounts, I expect to never have any taxable money to ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Like a family blowing its paycheck in a couple of days...
Replies: 9
Views: 2886

Is it my imagination, or do the funds' NAVs drop more steeply than the yields rise as a result of that very rise? Well, of course the NAV drops more than the yield rises. With a duration of 4, for example, a 1% rise in yields will cause a 4% decline in price. Over time the higher yield will make up...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate Bond Returns - Past and Future
Replies: 21
Views: 5480

So the grand conclusion is that corp debt is correctly priced, and so there is no excess return from taking credit risk in a blind fashion. Possible, but not probable or the market would have adjusted. Here is another thought. On another conversation, Larry mention call risk being a factor in corpo...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone ever have a gum graft?
Replies: 16
Views: 8897

Re: Anyone ever have a gum graft?

BTW, there are two ways that they can take the tissue from the roof of your mouth. The cheaper way is they just peel it off and leave a raw spot, there would be no stitches in the roof of your mouth this way. This was the way I had it done. Extremely painful while healing. I had to have the graft d...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations Matter! Now what?
Replies: 66
Views: 20551

Re: Valuations Matter! Now what?

It seems the vast majority believe valuations matter. So my questions are... 1) What valuation metric do you use? 2) Is the US equity market currently under, fairly, or over valued? 3) What action will you take based on valuations? Mike I think a number of things indicate it may be overvalued. In a...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone ever have a gum graft?
Replies: 16
Views: 8897

Re: Anyone ever have a gum graft?

I need one for one of my molars. I'm expecting a terrible experience but I'm wondering if anyone one else has had one and if it was as bad as it sounds. How long were you out of commission for? I had 4 of these, two at a time 6 months or so apart. Was not really "out of commission" at all. I was of...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 26, 2007 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to exit REIT's ?
Replies: 91
Views: 35326

It's not senseless then to increase weightings in REITs now back to the target of 5 or 10%. Even if REITs drop a further 20%, the loss in performance is not crippling, and the long term diversification benefits remain. Okay, you convinced me :) . I am buying some today to move back toward our 3.5% ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 24, 2007 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to exit REIT's ?
Replies: 91
Views: 35326

Perhaps I should have sold, but...

it's just one small slice of our portfolio. Putting things into perspective, if our REIT fund goes to 0, this will be a loss of less than 2%. A more realistic scenario would be maybe a 50% decline and a loss of less than 1%. Also in rebalancing, we have over time probably sold nearly as much REIT as...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2007 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is more important to you - money or time?
Replies: 16
Views: 4755

$60k/yr, low-stress secure job with straight 40 hour weeks and 4 weeks paid vacation a year
That is pretty much the job I have. Except I'd have to add boring to the description and the pay is just a bit higher...oh, and it's 7+ weeks of vacation now :D .
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529s Upromise Program Free Lunch
Replies: 27
Views: 7358

and to be more effective, you really have to recruit your aunts, uncles, parents, etc to sign-up to collect points from them as well. I never did that because I thought it would be sleazy to tell them to sign up to send money to me, when I know that you don't really have to use the money for a 529....
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High gas price and brazilian ethanol
Replies: 3
Views: 1463

Re: High gas price and brazilian ethanol

rokid wrote:
robertts12 wrote:Why to charge so a high tax on brazilian ethanol in a time far away of the crop in U.S.?
To protect the oil companies and corn producers? We don't make ethanol from sugar.

-----Jim
You forgot the biggest reason...to protect the ethanol producer(s) (aka ADM).
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX TIPS fund seems to have too many disadvantages
Replies: 34
Views: 14779

IMO they will have to go within a quarter point of the rate on the 5 year, i.e. probably to about 2.5%.
Wow, that would be a huge jump.

Rather than the rate being based on where TIPS are, might they, instead, set the rate to make them competitive with EE bonds instead?
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2007 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX TIPS fund seems to have too many disadvantages
Replies: 34
Views: 14779

Re: Not to beat a dead horse, but . . .

DennisRoche wrote: What am I missing?
No one is telling you each day what your individual TIPS is worth. The fund does that. With direct ownership you have to look a little harder to find out that the current value is less (or more) than what you paid.
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2007 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX TIPS fund seems to have too many disadvantages
Replies: 34
Views: 14779

Re: VIPSX TIPS fund seems to have too many disadvantages

DennisRoche wrote:...if inflation suddenly spirals out of control, reaking havoc on my stocks and ordinary bonds, at least the TIPS will give me rapidly increasing yield, offsetting some of the losses.
So will the fund.
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2007 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529s Upromise Program Free Lunch
Replies: 27
Views: 7358

Mike You are doing way better than me, I've gotten $21 in 2.5 years Thats more than me :roll: Upromise is a joke and a complete gimick. Rick, your getting 1% rebate to your 529 on eligable purchases (grocreies, gas, etc.) I presume. With other cards out there you can net 3%, 5% and in some cases 6%...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2007 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529s Upromise Program Free Lunch
Replies: 27
Views: 7358

I've had a Upromise account for a couple of years, and have registered my credit cards. But I find that there are only a very few items that I buy which qualify: mostly Coke products and Exxon. The bottom line for me might be $20-25 per year to my 529. Your mileage may vary. I think there is a Upro...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

Yes Jeffy, that is exactly so. So, the idea of the government "borrowing" SS funds is entirely a gimmick just as I have said. It is just a cover for the pols who take the extra money and blow it on whatever pork interests them at the time. BTW, this is not the only case where the government takes e...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 15, 2007 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

I may have missed it in all these posts, but I'd be interested in hearing Rick Ferri or anyone else who insists on receiving his benefits explain how we're going to cover the costs of redeeming those bonds to make those benefit payments. I'd presume the same way the cost of the $5 trillion in feder...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 15, 2007 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

Re: Yes, the SS Fund may look like Treasury Bonds

Actually Chas, the SS trust fund is precisely Treasury Bonds -- not the ones we buy through TreasuryDirect, etc. but Treasury Bonds nonetheless. I suppose the government does actually use some fancy paperwork that makes the SS fund look like real T-Bonds if one should ever peeks into it. However, R...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 12, 2007 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!,...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

strawmnan argument AT BEST Hmm, now that you mention it that seems like a pretty good description of arguements such as: PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!, PONZI SCHEME!...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

craigr wrote: I've never heard an argument yet on why offering a privatized national retirement program such as the govt. sponsored TSP funds wouldn't be a better solution for govt. mandated retirement savings. It would keep Wall St. out of the pockets of the savers and allow them to invest and ind...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 11, 2007 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

Somebody is going to have to double pay some day. It is unavoidable. 1. I prefer not to be that "somebody". 2. There is no reason why it can not continue as a "pay as you go system". There is a one time lump of baby boomers, then things stabilize again. If nothing at all is done, benefits will be c...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 11, 2007 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

I don't understand why the government doesn't phase out SS by starting mandatory TSP accounts for all working Americans with the same money they use for FICA Because the money coming in from FICA tax is paid out to today's beneficiaries. If you instead put it in a TSP account, what do you pay today...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 09, 2007 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: thought experiment: what would you do if no vanguard?
Replies: 30
Views: 10186

watchnerd wrote: OT: Am I the only one who finds the practice of calling oneself a Boglehead a bit weird and slightly creepy?
No.

Am I the only one who thinks calling Mr. Bogle "St. Jack" is...hmm...I don't know...out of proportion and perhaps offensive to some?
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 09, 2007 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

Jeffy, what changes would you propose? To the extent it is going to be welfare, it ought not be funded by a tax that ends when one reaches a certain income level. To the extent it is going to be a mandatory pension system, the benefits ought to be tied equitably to what has been paid in. Now, if th...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Our Sister Forum - The Good, The Bad, the Ugly
Replies: 14
Views: 4166

Re: CFS

Jeff started a thread on "the other forum" about this forum. You started a thread on this forum about Jeff's thread on the other forum. I'm going over to the other forum to start a thread about this thread. Be right back... :lol: :lol: :lol: I did not find your new thread...I was going to read it a...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: thought experiment: what would you do if no vanguard?
Replies: 30
Views: 10186

I know this is going to fly in the face of some of the more ardent Bogleheads, but I don't think we would have ended up in a different place, we just may have taken a bit longer to get there. DFA would still have arisen out of Fama-French's studies, which would become the alternative evolution of l...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead survey: Is Social Security A Good Thing?
Replies: 171
Views: 66513

I don't really like any of the poll choices. I see SS as a necessary "evil", for the reasons others have given. It is a combination of a welfare program and a mandatory portable pension plan. It could be structured better, both in terms of funding and benefits. I would like to see changes that go be...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

There aren't really negative factors associated with CO2. Not so sure that we know all there is to know. How about increased tree growth at higher CO2 levels? Perhaps this information is out of date, but many years ago when I was a student, I recall being informed that the rate of increase of CO2 w...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

Factor of 3 increase in efficiency=> modern fridge uses 25% of power of an old fridge? (one slight complication is fridges are *bigger* so on a per cubic foot basis, the performance is more impressive) Not a big deal but factor of 3 would mean modern one uses 33%, actually. But that is based on ene...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

Fridges

Okay, so it's more like a factor of 3 increase in refrigerator efficiency and you have to go back 35 years in the comparison. An impressive improvement.

Over the last 20 years it looks to be more like a 50% improvement.
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 04, 2007 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

Valuethinker, getting back to some of the loose ends... It's always the central case of the global warming thesis that as the planet warms, there will be more water vapour... That is essentially a law of physics at work: things evaporate more if the water is warmer. So far, as best we can observe, t...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 03, 2007 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

Modern fridges use 25% of the energy of 20 year old fridges.
Do you have a reference for that claim? We have two 20 year old refrigerators running, I know new ones will be more efficient...but find it difficult to believe the difference is a factor of 4.
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 02, 2007 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

The optimal thing is either a carbon tax, or a tradable permit to emit carbon. The actual outcomes would be about the same, but they have some quite different characteristics. http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/05/hubbard-endorses-carbon-taxe.html Greg Mankiw and Glen Hubbard were both Chairmen of...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 02, 2007 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

p 16 table SPM4 shows you that a reduction in CO2 to 535-590ppm by 2050 will cost you less than 0.6% of GDP (with a range of 0.2 to 2.5%) ie less than 0.1% pa. (Scenario III) The temperature range is then 2.8-3.2 degrees centigrade. Contrast that to Scenario VI, which is no mitigation, essentially ...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Net Worth Calculation with a Police Pension
Replies: 4
Views: 1635

In calculating my net worth should I count what I have contributed towards my police pension thus far even though I plan on drawing a pension and locking in a minimum of 20 years of service and therefore not rolling my contributions over into an IRA ? Sure you can count the actual current value of ...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

Re: Climate Change a.k.a. "Global Warming"

The argument is not whether CO2 causes warming; actually methane is much worse. The point is what will be the actual effects and how much can humanity mitigate any speculated effects at a realistic cost. Yes, and there is apparently quite a bit that can be done for little or no cost now, according ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

I don't know what the difference in consequences is for 3 vs. 4 deg, but it doesn't seem to really matter because, if I understand valuethinker's information, after 2050 mitigation would consume 10-30% of GDP, forevermore :shock: . No. Failure to mitigate means the loss of 15-30% of world GDP, fore...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

I just read the IPCC mitigation report. It looks to me like the 1% GDP cost translates to temp rise of ~3 deg C. OTOH, with mitigation measures that have approximately no net cost we end up with rise of ~4 deg. I don't know what the difference in consequences is for 3 vs. 4 deg, but it doesn't seem ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 01, 2007 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

First off, thank you Valuethinker for not attacking messengers or questioning my motivations 8) . Many of the responses here have concentrated on that, instead of the actual issue that, in my view, was raised by Mr. Griffin. The costs of stabilising atmospheric CO2 at between 500 and 550ppm by 2050....
by jeffyscott
Thu May 31, 2007 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NASA: Global Warming...so what!
Replies: 72
Views: 26248

So basically, you're saying the science isn't in yet. Correct? I am saying there have been many drastic fluctuations in the climate of this planet that had nothing to do with the activities of man. Why should we assume that this sort of thing somehow stopped around 1900? One of the funniest things ...