Search found 7275 matches

by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2905

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

PortfolioVisualizer will adjust a chart (but not, alas, the calculated numbers) for inflation. Here's Total Bond, adjusted for inflation. I can't find that, how do you make it adjust for inflation? There is also a "drawdowns" tab, here it is for 7-10 year treasuries (IEF): http://i.imgur.com/RxVTyh...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2905

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

I've never been able to reconcile the seemingly potential losses of -5% or so in intermediate-term bond funds with the apocalyptic language. Yes, if they had been talking 20-30 year bonds, it would make some sense, but they specifically cited the 10 year. Here's 20-30 year treasuries (TLT) vs. 7-10...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2905

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

So, I say feared interest rate scenario occurred--but their feared consequences did not. I would say that even if their feared consequences had occurred: "If over the next year, 10-year interest rates, which are now 2.8%, rise to 3.15%, bondholders will suffer a capital loss equal to the current yi...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 15001

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

My family member worked in the financial industry over 30+ years. His annual salary and bonus are in the 7 figures range. He has a master degree in economics from the University of Chicago. I lost 50% of my whole life savings during Telecom Bust. He lost 10 million during Telecom bust. Are you smar...
by jeffyscott
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2905

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

In Rekenthaler's illustration, if we suppose that the yield had gone instantly from 2.5% back to 3.8%, bursting the supposed bubble, that would have been a 1.3% rise. Currently, in Total Bond, an instant rise of 1.3% would cause a decline of 1.3%/year x -6.1 years = -8%. At a current SEC yield of 3...
by jeffyscott
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 15001

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

k66 wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:28 am
And was there no gain in the stock market from 1998 to 2010? Portfolio Visualizer suggests that a $10k investment in VTI would have grown to $14,500 over that period
And meanwhile an investment in cash would've grown to about $18,000, based on Vanguard short term treasury.
by jeffyscott
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later
Replies: 22
Views: 1669

Re: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later

Just to add some more context to the discussion. It's impressive the fundamental US large cap index has kept up with the S&P 500, given the fact the Fundamental index significantly underweights the technology sector due to their high valuations. At least in the current portfolio stats on M*, it's a...
by jeffyscott
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later
Replies: 22
Views: 1669

Re: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later

Just to add some more context to the discussion. It's impressive the fundamental US large cap index has kept up with the S&P 500, given the fact the Fundamental index significantly underweights the technology sector due to their high valuations. At least in the current portfolio stats on M*, it's a...
by jeffyscott
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misunderstanding of using CAPE for equity allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 532

Re: Misunderstanding of using CAPE for equity allocation

Let's say that CAPE exceeds 35 today, and based on my CAPE policy, I reduce my equity allocation to 25%. I'll need to hold that new allocation for at least 10 years, regardless of what CAPE does in the meantime, yes? It's a long-term timing strategy . But that's not what people do who advocate and ...
by jeffyscott
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later
Replies: 22
Views: 1669

Re: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later

The other claim I've heard Arnott make is that the last 10 years or so value has outperformed growth significantly , yet the fundamental index hasn't underperformed the index appreciably (or, as you say, it wouldn't be unreasonable to call it a tie). His claim is something to the effect of the outp...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My Very First Smartphone [Samsung Galaxy S9+] — Please Critique This Plan
Replies: 123
Views: 6670

Re: My Very First Smartphone — Please Critique This Plan

I think if you haven't had a smartphone before, you will be surprised in how much data can be used up quickly. Though there are things you can do to tweak and reduce it, a lot of apps use data in the background. I get 5GB a month, am mostly at home on Wifi, and use almost all of it. I don't really ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3528

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

While it does not overcome the wisdom that costs matters and it is unlikely that one can pick the successful active managers in advance, does a solid track record, low ERs, and VG's oversight of these managers not provide the confidence that active VG funds could still be the right answer? It is ce...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My Very First Smartphone [Samsung Galaxy S9+] — Please Critique This Plan
Replies: 123
Views: 6670

Re: My Very First Smartphone — Please Critique This Plan

I got my first smart phone a little over a year ago at a similar age. After 7 years the screen started failing on a flip phone that I had used with grandfathered paygo Boost plan, for which I had been paying $5 every 3 months. After a year with a used $30 Moto E2, I recently upgraded to a factory un...
by jeffyscott
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3528

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

While I thoroughly understand the arguments for passive investing, VG makes it hard by offering such outstanding active funds. Not sure I can find a reason to change after this brief analysis. Low costs are the key. It is not like you are proposing to keep an active fund with an ER of 1% or somethi...
by jeffyscott
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: auto/home insurance rates
Replies: 19
Views: 1604

Re: auto/home insurance rates

Every time a renewal comes due, my rates increase 15-20% without any claims, accidents, traffic violations, etc. When I call to question these absurd increases for nothing I did, I get the same old spiel - "we have had more claims than expected, so we had to increase rates." I don't believe this fo...
by jeffyscott
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3528

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

I have owned the STAR fund in my IRA since the beginning of the fund itself and although it would feel odd to part with such an old friend, I looked around for its closest index counterpart. I assumed this was the LS Moderate Growth fund, which is 60.19% equity or the Target Date 2025 fund, which i...
by jeffyscott
Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2121

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

VWESX may be more diversified, the index fund has 70% in one category, industrial. VWETX/VWESX has about 45% in that category.
by jeffyscott
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS yields good yet?
Replies: 15
Views: 1528

Re: Are TIPS yields good yet?

5 year treasury is at 2.94%, so at least between that and 5 year TIPS, I'd take the TIPS. But then, VTAPX has reported SEC real yield of 0.8% with average maturity of 2.8 years. With it's shorter duration, maybe the fund would be preferable to buying 5 year TIPS from TD? The fund may also be prefera...
by jeffyscott
Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 83
Views: 22617

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

For something like I like to use a 3 month rolling return chart. That gave me the idea to look at the current 3 month return. For the 3 months ended yesterday, there was nearly no price change and the total return was about 0.63% (2.53% annualized), implying the SEC yield was the better predictor.....
by jeffyscott
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 83
Views: 22617

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Is there a point where the Ultra Short Term bond Fund makes sense to put the bulk of Savings in? Right now the variance is 2.5% vs 1.8% in a savings account. Maybe there are some 1 year CD's that get a simiilar rate, but the Ultra Short fund is more easily accessible. The NAV seems like it has been...
by jeffyscott
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2883

Re: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio

If you buy brokered CDs or treasuries, you can also sell at the click of a button. Yes, but the cost of selling CDs is pretty high, maybe around 1% of the value. I am using brokered CDs in IRA as a substitute for treasuries, so mixing those with non-index bond funds that have minimal treasuries. We...
by jeffyscott
Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 480
Views: 72661

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

jmk wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:57 pm
and assuming $10 commision
There is no commission, the 2.9% is a new issue.

Secondaries would have commission, but typically can be found with better yields (net of commission) than new issues.
by jeffyscott
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confused by Wiki Advice on HSA Spending
Replies: 44
Views: 6257

Re: Confused by Wiki Advice on HSA Spending

The Wiki needs to represent the facts and circumstances of the vast majority of its readers. If there is to be a change to basic guidance it should be as an exception based on a well researched basis. Maybe the population here is skewed, but among the vast majority of the general population they wi...
by jeffyscott
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106042

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

right now, $100,000 of VOO is providing your portfolio earnings of less than $5000 per year, or about double what you receive in dividends. we can guess what rate these earnings will grow over the next 5, 10, 25 years, but nobody knows. the same amount of earnings is generated by only $65,000 of VW...
by jeffyscott
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5128

Re: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]

I agree that with an 8% real growth rate one will be better off claiming early regardless of longevity. But it's less clear, CurlyDave, that one is also better off even with 5%. For example, with 5% real growth someone with a Normal Retirement Age (NRA) of 66 needs to collect only past age 86.0 to ...
by jeffyscott
Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5128

Re: Time to look at SS

I don't see the one guaranteed win. For me, dying early while claiming early means a negative impact to my surviving wife. Good point. Even with my death at 71, it still gives 62/70 as the optimum, as long as spouse makes it to at least 83-90 (depending on other assumptions used). So, I guess anoth...
by jeffyscott
Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5128

Re: Time to look at SS

At least for me, using the alternative longer life expectancy factors (non-smoker preferred or super-preferred) at https://opensocialsecurity.com/ did not change the suggested strategy of younger, lower earning spouse claiming at 62 and older, higher earning at 70. The life expectancy tables aren't...
by jeffyscott
Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5128

Re: Time to look at SS

I generally use the default 'mortality weighting' and discount rate (see below from the opensocialsecurity "About" page). For me it's a good way to avoid the trying to guess when you die problem. The inputs I used were guesses based on what was said in the OP. They are surely wrong in detail, but p...
by jeffyscott
Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5128

Re: Time to look at SS

I'm 66 next year. I do not need the money but I'm thinking it's time to take SS. I'll get 1500 if wait 2000 a month 70. Wife is 62 will get 2500 at 70. My understanding is it usually makes sense for the lower earning spouse to take it at 62, because the lower benefit will end and higher benefit wil...
by jeffyscott
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth conversion with future RMD and SS
Replies: 28
Views: 2545

Re: Roth conversion with future RMD and SS

But, I think the big problem is that the baseline marginal rate is shown as 12%. That is an aspect I think many people miss. Even below the "cliff", each additional dollar of MAGI reduces the Premium Tax Credits by roughly 9.5%. It is ~9.5% above 300% of poverty and a declining percentage below tha...
by jeffyscott
Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5128

Re: Time to look at SS

I'm 66 next year. I do not need the money but I'm thinking it's time to take SS. I'll get 1500 if wait 2000 a month 70. Wife is 62 will get 2500 at 70. My understanding is it usually makes sense for the lower earning spouse to take it at 62, because the lower benefit will end and higher benefit wil...
by jeffyscott
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth conversion with future RMD and SS
Replies: 28
Views: 2545

Re: Roth conversion with future RMD and SS

Recently I was doing some calculations looking at the effect of Roth conversions on taxation of RMD's and SS. My situation is that I have other income in retirement that puts me in the 12% tax bracket. With my current portfolio size (and associated RMD's) and expected SS, I expect to be in the 12% ...
by jeffyscott
Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax
Replies: 22
Views: 2187

Re: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax

I had a mix of stocks and bonds in both Roth and pre-tax accounts but tilted Roths somewhat more toward stocks. For example, at time of retirement portfolio was 40% stocks with pre-tax accounts at ~35% stocks and Roths ~75%. No taxable accounts other than small savings account and some I/EE bonds (r...
by jeffyscott
Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth conversion with future RMD and SS
Replies: 28
Views: 2545

Re: Roth conversion with future RMD and SS

Recently I was doing some calculations looking at the effect of Roth conversions on taxation of RMD's and SS. My situation is that I have other income in retirement that puts me in the 12% tax bracket. With my current portfolio size (and associated RMD's) and expected SS, I expect to be in the 12% ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible Change to RMDs? [Executive order]
Replies: 47
Views: 6245

Re: How Current is the IRS RMD Table?

To what extent have life-span projections for the above-70 demographic changed in the last 16 years (since the last revision of the RMD table)? If a lot, this may result in a significant change in the RMD table. Strider Apparently the government's 2002 regulations were based on a 2000 commissioned ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5
Replies: 6
Views: 465

Re: Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5

Activity in your TIRA after certain transactions will often hurt you, the most notable example being the rollover of a 401k after doing a non taxable conversion . However, almost all Roth IRA activity done after a distribution will be beneficial because of the ordering rules AND the chronological r...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5
Replies: 6
Views: 465

Re: Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5

Just as a clarification, references to pub 590a above should actually be 590b. I found that part III of IRS form 8606 would be where any early distribution from a Roth would be reported. Part III of that form and it's instructions actually seem pretty clear and simple. For the case where the distrib...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5
Replies: 6
Views: 465

Re: Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5

You seem to have it down............ from Pub 590a are these ordering rules that determine the order that distributions are made from: There is also an example similar to yours. Thanks for confirming and for the reference. " Order the distributions as follows. 1)Regular contributions. ... Prior to ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106042

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Also, going back to your comment about Australia and the U.S. being geographically isolated from the rest of much of the world, I wonder whether that, apart from the effects of the two world wars in the 20th century, could indeed be a source of outperformance for these nations. The two world wars d...
by jeffyscott
Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5
Replies: 6
Views: 465

Commingling Roth conversion and withdrawals when <59.5

Spouse first contributed to Roth account about 20 years ago, so much more than 5 years. Being retired and both under 59.5, we want to be sure that we will be able to withdraw contributions without penalties, her contributions represent about 1/3 of the value of the Roth. She has a small traditional ...
by jeffyscott
Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Frequency? Daily vs annually?
Replies: 34
Views: 2479

Re: Rebalancing Frequency? Daily vs annually?

I think, perhaps, behavioral studies might be more important, if any exist? I know it was very difficult to actually execute a rebalancing strategy in 2008-09. With target retirement fund this is taken out of your hands, so you know it will actually be implemented. So assuming you definitely want to...
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay
Replies: 14
Views: 1049

Re: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay

Even for truly unlocked phones - some may or may not support a particular carrier - might not support both GSM and CDMA - or support the necessary frequencies. At least that's what I've read. Even Non-knock-off phones can have this issue. For instance - I always thought all unlocked iPhone6's were ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay
Replies: 14
Views: 1049

Re: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay

Yes, I subsequently saw in some of the reviews on walmart that people said they bought an unlock code on Ebay for $2 or so. That was then. Apparently Verizon has plugged that hole. Also from some things I read, it appears that even if unlocked the Verizon models may still block some of the LTE chan...
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay
Replies: 14
Views: 1049

Re: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay

Well, I think I found a true factory unlocked phone (refurb Moto E4).

Seller has 30 day free return shipping and 90 day warranty, so they seem pretty confident of quality. Deal wasn't that great until I found that a 20% off coupon worked, making it just $63.
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay
Replies: 14
Views: 1049

Re: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay

Yes you can do it yourself. A google search will show a variety of ways to do it. Keep in mind if you brick the phone, making it d.o.a., you're usually of luck. Here is some other recent info that may be helpful. https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/how-to-unlock-a-phone-on-every-carrier/ https://w...
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay
Replies: 14
Views: 1049

Re: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay

It's not "factory unlocked" . Well, some say "factory unlocked" in the title or details. The seller may have a "new, sealed from the factory" phone but is applying the unlock themselves. It's fairly routine, and I've bought a couple years ago with no issues. So why can I not do this myself, if it i...
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay
Replies: 14
Views: 1049

New, pseudo unlocked phones on Ebay

I was looking at phones that are listed as "new" and "unlocked" (Moto E4 and G5 in this case) on Ebay. One listing says: Phone is brand new, factory sealed in box. This is the verizon prepaid phone unlocked to work with any GSM carrier. It will work with any GSM Carrier T-Mobile, AT&T, Simple Mobile...
by jeffyscott
Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investment account to prioritize?
Replies: 9
Views: 558

Re: Which investment account to prioritize?

I forgot the state but glad you got my direction.If you are going to look at future tax rates wouldnt you have to also look at current returns with the 17% compounded ? No, if tax rate is the same upon withdrawal there is no benefit from that. Invest $1000 pre-tax, money triples. You withdraw $3000...
by jeffyscott
Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investment account to prioritize?
Replies: 9
Views: 558

Re: Which investment account to prioritize?

Im sure others will join in but why wouldnt you max the 401k pretax contribution.Thats a guaranteed 12% (at this point) return or am I looking at it wrong? That's a good way at looking at it. I haven't thought about it that way... With possible 3% returns in the stock market over the next 5-10 year...
by jeffyscott
Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106042

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If I were required to pick either 100% US or 100% ex-US for life, I know where I’d place my roulette chip. Luckily we're not forced to do so. I have a stack of chips, and I spread them all over the table. But you're right in your statement. Of course, if actually playing roulette the best bet is al...